Murray/Federer LIVE, Watch at SBR!

**SBR Lou** · 01-09-09, 11:56 AM

Murray playing inspired right now.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 11:56 AM

Murray 76% first serve in this set. I've been watching him for years, and one thing is universal: he almost never loses when he serves well (anything above 60% say). It's an easy way to make money in play - I'd love to get the stats, but I reckon it'd be around 95% wins in that case.

**SBR Lou** · 01-09-09, 11:56 AM

5-2 Murray in set 2.

**Regul8er** · 01-09-09, 11:58 AM

Going to a 3rd Set
I think the best bet here was OVER 24 games total. It seems these two always go 3 sets (I think 5 of their 6 matches have at least).
I'm kicing myself for not getting on board.

**LT Profits** · 01-09-09, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Hard to make much of an objective argument either way - it's a very small sample. I would say it's a fairly common belief Murray's style is a very bad matchup for Federer though, hence their H2H record.
Either way, about level looks right, so the odds weren't hugely far off.

Still, us Murray backers have made a packet in those matches :-) I've been repeatedly on him since early in Cincinatti, when it was clear he'd progressed to the top level.

No doubt and congrats, but wasn't today Murray's shortest price of the five matches? Sounds like we can both support our positions.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Going to a 3rd Set
I think the best bet here was OVER 24 games total. It seems these two always go 3 sets (I think 5 of their 6 matches have at least).
I'm kicing myself for not getting on board.

Yeah, ditto.

Double break for Murray. I think he wins from here, based on the smallish difference in motivation: Federer hasn't been bothered about losing inconsequential matches for a while, and generally doesn't fight them out to his max.

By contrast, in the TMC Murray went all out to beat Federer in his third group game, even though he'd already qualified for the semis and had no benefit in doing so. It even cost him his chances of winning the tournament, as he was knackered for the next match 15 hours later (and against Davydenko, an opponent whose style Murray finds tricky). He said afterwards he was aware of the danger, but cared more about beating Federer than winning the tournament.

**SBR Lou** · 01-09-09, 12:03 PM

Murray rolls 2nd set 6-2.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No doubt and congrats, but wasn't today Murray's shortest price of the five matches? Sounds like we can both support our positions.

Yeah, you may be right. Even though I think Murray will win from here, in retrospect it may not have been much value (maybe neutral). I didn't see Federer's last match, so it wasn't a good bet to take given how critical his motivation is here.

**Sforz** · 01-09-09, 12:05 PM

c'mon fed!

**SBR Lou** · 01-09-09, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Yeah, you may be right. Even though I think Murray will win from here, in retrospect it may not have been much value (maybe neutral). I didn't see Federer's last match, so it wasn't a good bet to take given how critical his motivation is here.

He's backtracking because he's realizing this match is closer than he handicapped it at being, don't humor the square. Murray was undoubtedly the right side at +120.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 12:10 PM

Did Murray just call for the trainer?

Edit: looks like left hip/back, or glute muscle.

**LT Profits** · 01-09-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

He's backtracking because he's realizing this match is closer than he handicapped it at being, don't humor the square. Murray was undoubtedly the right side at +120.

No need to backtrack, I got Federer at his peak price so I am happy regardless of result.

By the way, is the minus (-) key on your keyboard broken? This is the first time I saw you use a + sign in about two years.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 12:12 PM

Federer has to break here, Murray's serve is way, way off top speed. 97mph first serve there.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 12:22 PM

Change of tactics by Murray, he's going for the corners, trying to shorten the points.

What often happens here is the opponent loses their rhythm too, distracted by the opponent's change. I remember one match where Serena Williams was so injured she could literally hardly walk, hobbling around the court, and her opponent started erroring something ridiculous. Subconscious sympathy? I've no idea :-)

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 12:25 PM

.....and there you go, what bizarre psychology that is. Federer suddenly startes erroring, and gets broken.

Question is whether Murray can serve properly with a dodgy back.

**SexyMit** · 01-09-09, 12:27 PM

Fed is done... move on to the next game

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-09-09, 12:32 PM

This will likely make Murray and Federer joint favourites for the Aussie Open (imo a correct position).

Not sure a line move based on anything in this match is justified though. Aside from the difference in motivation between them, and the difficulty Murray's style poses for the Fed, there was also a degree of experimentation in both their games here. Federer in particular is volleying a hell of a lot, and not because it's a particularly effective style against Murray (it's not, he has the best lob in tennis and excellent passes). Rather he's said it's something he wants to add to his game this season, and is clearly more interested here in preparation than winning the match.