Overall Profit: +5.45
French Open: +2.85
French Open: +2.85
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Comment -
5.28.13
ATP French Open
Tomic-Hanescu Under 37.5 [-125]
Paire-Baghdatis Over 36 [-110]
Rufin +6.5 [-105]
Pella +158 *Risking 0.5 unit
Serra +360 *Risking 0.5 unit
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Got anything to say about Serra?Comment -
Never underestimate the Donkey he is up against.Comment -
Nice to see Dimitrov showing up to play. I have a feeling this one is going the distance.Comment -
Falla had some injury coming in. I was going to play something there, but I've been trying to avoid any matches with injury issues outside of the de Bakker over Wawrinka 1st set bet that I had looked at, but if rain delays play a day ... might re-think that.Comment -
I stand corrected - Tomic tore his hamstring according to reports. Poor luck because the under looked like it still was alive and well when he got broken again in the 3rd.Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 05-28-13, 02:57 PM.Comment -
Hate days like today. Whittled down a lot of plays to not over-play the day and I leave off multiple dogs who have won. Eeesh. Hoping that patience is rewarded somewhere.Comment -
Yo ep think i have a chance for mahut +7 or djokovic goffin over 25 games?Comment -
Don't trust either one of those dudes. Even though Tipsarevic has been horrid, Mahut's results the last couple weeks to low class players on clay made me avoid that one altogether as I would have gladly faded Mr.T against anyone with decent form.
Goffin is tough to predict. He could definitely be pesky, but most of his play this year has been poor.Comment -
Also thought about Gicquel & Vesely + the games. Liked Vesely more, but again talked myself off it and kicking myself again.Comment -
It was one of those days where I had about ten matches/bets I liked - but I don't ever go that heavy on any given day for a Slam or tennis in general. Had to whittle it down and would rather miss a few than to have bet ten and it turns into a dog shit massacre.Comment -
Since I was on vacation when the draws came out, did not really get a chance to look them over until today. So here's my quick hitter. Will be looking for some futures plays, want to see if odds are reposted for "Players to Win Their Quarter" which is one of my favorites to bet during Slams. Anywho.
Djokovic Quarter
Really not a very tough quarter IMO for Djokovic to advance. Bottom of the quarter is weakly led by Tipsarevic with Haas probably being the bigger threat to anyone. Up top, Djokovic will have to go through Dimitrov & maybe Kohlschreiber for a QF trip. In a best of 5, hard to see either being consistent enough to get past Djokovic. Dimitrov could give him a go with another big serving day like Madrid, but my feeling is that loss is more than enough motivation for Djokovic.
Darkhorses: Verdasco & Isner. Not saying either is beating Djokovic, but both could make a push to the QFs in a wide open bottom half of the quarter.
Nadal Quarter
The interest really should lie in the bottom half where Gasquet, Janowicz and Wawrinka should be battling for the spot oppo Nadal. Wawrinka seemed healthy enough against de Bakker, that you now would expect his form takes over. Janowicz v. Stan looks likely in the 3rd. Gasquet gets a nice draw to the 4th, I think. Nadal made it past Brands after dropping a set and we'll see how his play goes from here, but Round 2 should be easier. Round 3 with Fognini/Rosol might be interesting. Of course Rosol would likely get the revenge Wrath again. Nishikori could skirt into the 4th round opposite Nadal.
Darkhorses: Janowicz. Prototypical "Lightning in the Bottle" guy. This is the one type of player who could conceivably shock Rafa. A power player who if he hits on all cylinders at once can pressure Rafa into a long, frustrating match.
Ferrer Quarter
Ferrer must be living right. First, Murray withdraws and pushes everyone up a spot to clear him from Rafa's quarter. Now, Berdych loses early. Ferrer's half of the quarter is void of a major threat IMO. Raonic or Anderson could face him in the 4th, but both lack the fitness on this surfaceI think to outlast Ferrer in a best of 5. Up top, a quiet beneficiary of Berdych losing is Almagro. The talk will center more I think around the winner of Monfils-Gulbis whereas Almagro could ease into the 4th round and pounce into the quarters from there. Ferrer could block him from the semis as he did in Australia. Almagro will have to try to kill the ghost of blowing a 2-0 lead there.
Darkhorses: Monfils, Gulbis, Almagro. Pick your poison in the top half of this quarter. Monfils or Gulbis wuld be riding a wave of momentum into a quarterfinal - and Gulbis has shown particularly that he might be on the verge of a break-through. Monfils would entertain if nothing else if in the position to advance & a semifinal could make up for a tough year so far.
Federer Quarter
Death. Taxes. Federer in the QFs of a Slam. While Federer has not been a certainty this year, his QF streak @ Slams is intact and his draw sems probable for another QF trip. Simon might face him again and while Simon has provided him some tough matches, Federer crushed him in Rome - although Simon's style still forces Federer to be more precise. Up top, the collision course looks like Tsonga's to take. Cilic or Chardy could get hot and challenge him, but neither has been overly solid leading up to RG. Still, some of the pressure of last year's choke against Djokovic and being a Frenchman playing in Paris could always be a factor for JWT. His path isn't easy, but his game is the best of anyone in this half of the bracket. He just needs the mental strength to match.
Darkhorses: Chardy. Normally, I'd probably say the pressure of playing @ home might be a bit much for him still. But Tsonga shoulders more of that burden here IMO. A big IF, but IF Chardy swoops past Tsonga - we'll see what he learned in Australia as far as playing a Slam QF.
Prognosis: It's been a few years since any major waves as far as the semifinal match-ups at Roland Garros. The last couple of years, the top five seeds have been your main participants in that round and beyond. The uneven play though of many leading up to this year's French Open makes me think a party crasher or two might wind up in the semis.
The likelier bumps would be for Ferrer or Federer to miss out as they would likely have the harder QF match-ups. Nadal has been winning since his return, but has looked slightly more vulnerable as witnessed in Round 1 vs. Brands. Djokovic's ankle I think may have been a bigger part of his pre-RG let-down and I would expect his focus to be intense for these two weeks as he tries to get his elusive piece of the four Grand Slams. Push comes to shove, I say look for a Frenchman to be the party crasher in the semis or someone who happens to do the lightning in a bottle act over one of the big seeds like a Gulbis or Janowicz.
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"A power player who if he hits on all cylinders at once can pressure Rafa into a long, frustrating match."
That, or a short, painless one...
"... the winner of Monfils-Gulbis..." Gee-whiz! I wonder whom that might be...
"... someone who happens to do the lightning in a bottle act over one of the big seeds like a Gulbis or Janowicz."
Obviously not counting Konga, there is no "like". Let's just say it straight already: Gulbis or Janowicz.
Interesting writeup overall. Appreciate the effort and entertainment/insight! : )Comment -
Overall Profit: +5.69
French Open: +3.09
Gonna grind out a small profit if Paire-Baghdatis finish their match which is already locked into an over now in the 3rd set.
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May 29th: ATP French Open
Kyrgios +7.5 [-105]
Doubles Parlay: Marreo/Verdasco + Quereshi/Rojer [-122]
Querrey-Hajek Over 37.5 [-120]
Sousa +295 *Risking 0.5 unit
Kavcic +190 *Risking 0.5 unit
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Sousa = double mint. GL, hossComment -
Team Double Mint, fukk yeah! Comin' to save the mother f-ing day yeah!Comment -
Trying to look at a little bit of WTA.
Adding WTA French Open ....
Wozniacki-Jovanovski Over 20 [-120]
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Well Seppi downs my dog in 5 for a 2nd straight round. Valiant comeback from down 0-2 by Kavcic, but one early break in the 5th did him in.Comment -
Pretty sure the Querrey-Hajek over is cooked. Hajek served for the 2nd set at 5-4 and lost three straight games. At least the WTA over hits and 1st half of doubles parlay with the Spaniards about to win. Everything else, bollocks.Comment -
And another blown break lead for Hajek.
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Overall Profit: +3.44
French Open: +0.84Comment -
WTA Heat Check
Ivanovic-Johansson Under 18.5 [-110]Comment -
Feasel is going to the Semis man.need ferrer to break his leg.Tony might have to pay me out 3k..Comment -
We'll see beef. Robredo and/or Almagro will not be easy to get through ... potentially to get to a 3rd Spaniard in Ferrer. Main issue IMO will be fatigue. Long week in Nice + two long matches already in Paris ...Comment -
Wanted to see how the Monfils-Gulbis match went today. Expecting to add a Futures Play on that Ferrer quarter tonight depending on what 5Dimes puts out there. Debating one other possibly.Comment -
Mentioning what the future would be might be a good thing to consider...Comment
