EP36's Super Serial Fuzzy Balls of Fury

[Hardcoar]

Guys, you need to flat bet in tennis every time. Betting big in a volatile sport like this will kill you. Been there. Grinding out profit isn't sexy, but its smart.

Losses easier to swallow when you don't overextend your bankroll

Damn kid, you've been producing some serious QPs with cheese lately. I wish I could've given you more than two points today.

[EaglesPhan36]

You can look at your points history to figure it out. Click on your points and it takes you there.

[Hardcoar]

Another QP! This calls for two more points... oh wait!

[alpinepetey]

Isotomin in a quick one. Nice day EP. Lets keep it rollin.

[alpinepetey]

Levine with the W as well. Good job EP.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +10.21

[ParlayininHTown]

Bogo over Llodra?

[EaglesPhan36]

You could not pay me to give a fukk about that match.

[ParlayininHTown]

Is that why it's the only singles match of the day on the historic "court 2?"

[EaglesPhan36]

If someone gives me odds on the match ending in a retirement or walkover, I'll take that.

[EaglesPhan36]

August 6th
ATP Montreal: Baghdatis -140
ATP Montreal: Peliwo +345
ATP Montreal: Pospisil +200

*Risking 0.5 unit on the dogs.

[Hardcoar]

"Sorry
You cannot send points to yourself."


Lame! : (

[juuso]

BOL man. I also took Pospisil +300 early in the morning. Looks like line has come down a little already.

Liked the way he played in Vancouver and should give Isner run for his money here.

[ParlayininHTown]

You should have hopped on Bogo ML with me, EP. It wasn't as excruciating as we imagined.

Ice cream for everyone!

[Tsonga]

Peliwo giving you a bit of a fight suprisingly...i thought he was toast. ..Posipisil should give Isner a run. I don't think Dancevic will do much against Lu. I have the Lu handicap. I am scared/nervous to see what Raonic shows up this week. A one and done tourney for him will be a big blow to his confidence.

[EaglesPhan36]

Peliwo worked out. Part of taking him was the possibilty of a Nieminen retirement. Read his blog, he had not been healthy so the lack of fitness and match play was problematic. Hamstring today was not the previous problem, but could have been overcompensation or just bad luck.

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...
ATP Montreal: Haas-Goffin Under 21 (-113)

[ParlayininHTown]

ATP Montreal: Peliwo +345
ATP Montreal: Pospisil +200

Legit.

[EaglesPhan36]

Canadian Power on the P-dogs.

[juuso]

Nice come from behind win for Pospisil! I cashed out a nice rather large stake bet @ +200. Congrats hitting that Peliwo bet too!

[EaglesPhan36]

Need to add Goffin to my no bet list. Never know when this guy is going to show up for a set and F things up.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Solid day EP, dogs was barking all day and the over hit for the majority of the matches

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +10.40

[EaglesPhan36]

August 7th
ATP Montreal: Stepanek -160
ATP Montreal: Berdych-Dolgopolov Over 22 [-103]
ATP Montreal: Dancevic +4 [-130] *Risking 0.65 units to win 0.50

[fitguy67]

bol tomorrow EP,

yesterday a prime example of why varying your bet-size according to "confidence" a bad idea and why boring ole' flat betting a good idea...
the one "most likely to cash" (and the highest price) died and the longshots came thru nicely...

"man plans, god laughs"

[Hardcoar]

Flat stakes or winnings?

[fitguy67]

if you read the sig you'll see i'm a flat-winnings bettor (a rare bird, as Americans are hybrid "dogs to risk/faves to win" bettors, generally, and Euro-bettors tend to be "to risk" based)...

But as far as my support of flat- vs. varied-betting goes...it doesn't really matter, as long as you're consistent...cuz arbitrarily magnifying some plays in relation to others on the basis of subjective "confidence" is the issue, whichever type of bettor you are. It is essentially trying to "cap the capping" and is a sure recipe to magnify equity swings (exactly what EP discusses on the previous page)...and I consider volatility of the equity path (aka. variance) something to be minimized where possible.

Take any series of bets that feature varied bet-sizes (whatever the betting-format, as long as it's consistently-applied, with whatever ultimate $ results). Then "what if" a spreadsheet with the whole lot going off at the mean bet-size so that total $/units wagered is identical...you'll find that by trying to be clever, the guy who "weights" his plays differently ALWAYS increases variance relative to the flat alternative...as for $-profitability, the difference between the varied and the flat distributes itself fairly normally thru time above and below the "if flat" result for the same bettor...

In other words, a varied bettor's first set of 1000 plays may outperform the "if flat" benchmark by 0.4 std.dev's this time...the next set might be much worse...say 1.3 std.dev's below...etc. etc...sometimes better, sometimes worse...usually by a little but sometimes by a lot...but being a fancy-Dan with play-size yields no long-term benefit over just betting everything at the average unit-weight applied to the whole stable of plays...get it right for a while and feel like a genius as you overperform the flat-alternative by magnifying the upswings more than the downswings...then Murphy's Law kicks in big-time and you're magnifying the downswings more than the upswings and feeling like a dolt...constantly toggling between the two

Moral of the story...bet-size variation increases $-variance (bad), while doing nothing to change long-term $-EV...so long-term it's "increased pain for no gain" whatever default betting-format you employ (American hybrid--like EP, Euro fixed-stakes--like HC, or fixed-target--like me)

[ohumad]

if you read the sig you'll see i'm a flat-winnings bettor (a rare bird, as Americans are hybrid "dogs to risk/faves to win" bettors, generally, and Euro-bettors tend to be "to risk" based)...

But as far as my support of flat- vs. varied-betting goes...it doesn't really matter, as long as you're consistent...cuz arbitrarily magnifying some plays in relation to others on the basis of subjective "confidence" is the issue, whichever type of bettor you are. It is essentially trying to "cap the capping" and is a sure recipe to magnify equity swings (exactly what EP discusses on the previous page)...and I consider volatility of the equity path (aka. variance) something to be minimized where possible.

Take any series of bets that feature varied bet-sizes (whatever the betting-format, as long as it's consistently-applied, with whatever ultimate $ results). Then "what if" a spreadsheet with the whole lot going off at the mean bet-size so that total $/units wagered is identical...you'll find that by trying to be clever, the guy who "weighs" his plays differently ALWAYS increases variance relative to the flat alternative...as for $-profitability, the difference between the varied and the flat distributes itself fairly normally thru time above and below the "if flat" result for the same bettor...

In other words, a varied bettor's first set of 1000 plays may outperform the "if flat" benchmark by 0.4 std.dev's this time...the next set might be much worse...say 1.3 std.dev's below...etc. etc...sometimes better, sometimes worse...usually by a little but sometimes by a lot...but being a fancy-Dan with play-size yields no long-term benefit over just betting everything at the average unit-weight applied to the whole stable of plays...get it right for a while and feel like a genius as you overperform the flat-alternative by magnifying the upswings more than the downswings...then Murphy's Law kicks in big-time and you're magnifying the downswings more than the upswings and feeling like a dolt...constantly toggling between the two

Moral of the story...bet-size variation increases variance (bad), while doing nothing to change long-term EV...so long-term it's "increased pain for no gain" whatever default betting-format you employ (American hybrid--like EP, Euro fixed-stakes--like HC, or fixed-target--like me)

This guy is certainly no Bullwinkle... How is your ROI if you care to share.

[Hardcoar]

It's a f*cking squirrel... what do you expect?

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...

ATP Montreal: Youzhny +110 *Risking 0.5 unit

[ParlayininHTown]

Add...

ATP Montreal: Youzhny +110 *Risking 0.5 unit

Love the bet. Hate the price.

I was hoping books would over-value Raonic's Canadian crowd advantage and make him closer to a -200 favorite. I suppose if I know better than to think Raonic should be the favorite here, there's no way the books would set his ML at -200 or lower (U C what I did there, HC?).

Tough to deny Youhzny's solid form or Raonic's disappointing season at this point.

[tevari]

Someone please talk me out of betting on the Gulbis/Fognini match, I beg you.

[lucasdawg]

Someone please talk me out of betting on the Gulbis/Fognini match, I beg you.

i adjusted my plays and took this out. so should you :P

[EaglesPhan36]

Lucky to get Youzhny as a dog IMO. Other than the # next to his name, Raonic has done little to justify being a fave vs. anyone.

All in on Fognini? LoL.

[lucasdawg]

Lucky to get Youzhny as a dog IMO. Other than the # next to his name, Raonic has done little to justify being a fave vs. anyone.

All in on Fognini? LoL.

i agree raonic wont be able to keep up in ralleys or in much watched him struggle thru the chardy match he was lucky not to lose there.