[DiamondJack]

.....with the news of Sane out injured, Senegal are toast

8. Senegal to finish bottom @ 4.00/+300

[DiamondJack]

Futures Bets Summarized

1. Lautaro Martinez (ARG) @ 26.00/+2500 (1/2 unit) Bet365
2. Robert Lewandowski (POL) @ 51.00/+5000 (1/2 unit) WillHill
3. Qatar to qualify @ 4.25/+325 (1u) Unibet
4. Poland to qualify @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Unibet
5. Denmark to win Group D @ 4.00/+300 (1u) Bet365
6. Costa Rica total points 0 @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Skybet
7. Morocco to advance @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Skybet
8. Senegal to finish bottom @ 4.00/+300 (1u) Unibet

[-FlawlessKid]

Always a pleasure to read your analyses DJ, have a good WC!

[DiamondJack]

Flawless

[DiamondJack]

Qatar v Ecuador

1. Qatar +0.25 @ 1.83/-120 (2u) Pinnacle
2. Total Goals Under 2 @ 1.92/-108 (1u) Bet365
3. Total Cards OVER 4.5 @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365

Starting off with a trio of wagers for the opening game of the tournament. Never has the host of a wold cup lost its opening game. This will be the easiest opponent that the hosts will face so I think its a must they get something from the game. There have been rumors of bribes being offered to some Ecuadorian players. I don't even think you need to bribe Ecuador just look at their last 5 results 0-0,0-0,0-0,1-0,0-0. They won against Cabo Verde. As we all know the opening match at the world cup is teams playing not to lose in their first game especially the underdogs. These sides did play one another back in 2018 when Qatar came out on top 4-3. This line should be at +160 for both sides.
Ecuador is also the dirtiest team at the tournament amassing 40 yellows and 3 red cards in qualification. Compare that to England who are the cleanest with 13 yellows and zero red cards. Daniele Orsato has been named the referee for this game he averages 4.78 yellow cards per officiated game as well as a 26.1% chance of a penalty being called.

LEANS
Player sent off YES @ 5.30/+430 Unibet
PK in match YES @ 3.40/+240 Bet365

[DiamondJack]

England v Iran


4. England win to Nil @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Bet365
5. Total Goals Under 2.25 @ 1.86/-108 (1u) Bet365
6. Total Cards Under 3.5 @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Unibet


I'm expecting England to come into this match with a 3-4-3 formation. Hoping the trio up front of Saka, Foden and Kane can provide some firepower that until a recently has been missing. England did score 3 versus Germany their last game out but might find it difficult to break down Iran at least initially. This is the first game that kicks off on Monday when the temperature might still be hot. I'm expecting a slow start followed by England's quality to come through in the second.
Iran play a very defensive 4-5-1 formation under Queiroz whose tactics resulted in Iran keepind 10 clean sheets in internations under his helm. Th sole man up for Iran Azmoun has a calf injury and might not be 100% so its hard to see where the goals are going to come from.
England are also the cleanest side it the tournament and now have the fortune to have drawn referee Raphael Claus from Brazil who happens to be the most lenient official in Qatar averaging only 1 yellow card per game and 0.09 red cards. So outside of a yellow or two for Iran I expect a clean game

LEAN
England/Iran HT Result DRAW @ 2.28/+128 Unibet

[packerd_00]

Why does everyone think england will win the group for sure?

Why not? Southgate has whipped England into shape over the last two tournaments. Im interested to know who you think can take them out.

[packerd_00]

Germany actually has value though. Flick is the sharpest manager at the tournament and German pedigree is second to none.

And yet England took them apart at the Euro's.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack, your information is great. Wishing you the best.

[packerd_00]

Good luck Diamond.

[DiamondJack]

packard---
Chucky--

[lakerboy]

And yet England took them apart at the Euro's.

This isn't the euro and flick wasn't there. England was lucky that Mueller missed.

[franz555]

BOL thru the tournament

[DiamondJack]

Netherlands v Senegal



7. HT result DRAW @ 2.23/+123 (1u) Pinnacle


Too many people are expecting goals in this fixture but are clearly not realizing that both sides are missing their top goal scorer. Memphis Depay is out for the Netherlands as is Mane for Senegal. Sadio Mane was involved in 12 of the past 25 goals for Senegal and Depay was the leading goal scorer for the Netherlands in qualification. The past 4 games for Senegal have gone under the total and the past 2 games for the Netherlands have gone under the total. Sadly there is no value in backing the under but I do like a slow start since these sides have never met before and Senegal's strength is at the back. Senegal lack a clear goal scoring threat and the Netherlands will be happy with a low scoring victory.
Senegal have some questionable losses lately in losses to Liberia and Zambia and having to go to penalties against poor sides like Eswatini and Mozambique. Netherlands win this and keeps a clean sheet.

LEAN
Netherlands win to Nil @ 2.37/+137 Bet365

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice call, Jack. Very good read on the game.

Thought SEN looked pretty organized.

[DiamondJack]

Wales v USA



8. FT DRAW @ 3.16/+216 (1u) Pinnacle


Both sides come into this opening game limping into the world cup. The USA finished 3rd in Concacaf and are struggling for identity where as Wales had to go through a playoff with a win over the Ukraine at home. Form wise Wales have 1 draw and 4 losses and were relegated from the Nations league. The United States have only one win in their last 5 games and that was to lowly Granada. Both sides will also be looking to their scoring talismans to provide anything. Pulisic for the USA has been involved in 19 out of the past 23 goals scoring 12 and adding 7 assists. Wales will be looking to old man Bale who always shows up for his county.
This will be a game neither team will want to lose and it should play out that way. The last time these sides met resulted in a 0-0 draw. Everything points to a 1-1 scoreline

LEAN
Total Goals Under 2 @ 2.08/+108 Bet365

[lakerboy]

Love that draw

[packerd_00]

This isn't the euro and flick wasn't there. England was lucky that Mueller missed.

Yep that's always the excuse I hear their lucky. How did you like that 6-2 throttling today by England?

[DiamondJack]

Argentina v Saudi Arabia




9. Argentina -2 @ 1.99/-101 (2u) Bet365

We have arguably the best team at the tournament facing the worst team. Form wise in the last 5 games by Argentina all wins 3-0, 5-0, 3-0. 5-0, 4-0. At the last world cup Russia beat the Saudis 5-0 at the 2006 world cup they got smoked 4-0 by the Ukraine. This could get very ugly very fast. There is no need doing a deep dive into this game as there will be one way traffic all game long

LEAN
Martinez anytime goal scorer @ 2.20/+120 Will Hill

[packerd_00]

Damn I was rooting for the States to come through. Unfortunate there with the late penalty.

[JayLA]

Wales v USA



8. FT DRAW @ 3.16/+216 (1u) Pinnacle


Both sides come into this opening game limping into the world cup. The USA finished 3rd in Concacaf and are struggling for identity where as Wales had to go through a playoff with a win over the Ukraine at home. Form wise Wales have 1 draw and 4 losses and were relegated from the Nations league. The United States have only one win in their last 5 games and that was to lowly Granada. Both sides will also be looking to their scoring talismans to provide anything. Pulisic for the USA has been involved in 19 out of the past 23 goals scoring 12 and adding 7 assists. Wales will be looking to old man Bale who always shows up for his county.
This will be a game neither team will want to lose and it should play out that way. The last time these sides met resulted in a 0-0 draw. Everything points to a 1-1 scoreline

LEAN
Total Goals Under 2 @ 2.08/+108 Bet365

That was a good read

[lakerboy]

Yep that's always the excuse I hear their lucky. How did you like that 6-2 throttling today by England?

Who did they play again? You guys are going to lose in the end. Then you can blame the black guys.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack, I hope you keep stacking. Mucho dinero.

[packerd_00]

Who did they play again? You guys are going to lose in the end. Then you can blame the black guys.

Since this is Jack's thread im not going to mop the floor with you. There was no need for that.

[lakerboy]

Since this is Jack's thread im not going to mop the floor with you. There was no need for that.

I'm just spitting out the truth. Harry McGuire is on the team though so another scapegoat is there.

England should be able to win the tournament without any excuse.

[DiamondJack]

Denmark v Tunisia


10. Denmark -1 @ 2.16/+116 (1u) Pinnacle


The cat is out of the bag when it comes to Denmark as far as them being a dark horse team. The Danes have had a near perfect qualification campaign with 27 points in 10 games. They followed that by getting 12 out of 18 points in the nations league. They were the semi finalists at the Euros. Led by talisman Christian Eriksen and anchored by key spurs midfielder Hojbjerg, I expect a comfortable victory and if I did not have a future on them I would have put 2 units on this wager. I am also tempted to sprinkle some pizza money on their fullback Maehle to score at a decent price.
Tunisia have lost 60%of their world cup games which is 3rd worse behind only Saudi Arabia 69% who are 1st and Australia second at 63%. They have also failed to beat any UEFA team in the world cup. I think they might surprise and get a result versus their former colony France and most likely beat up on the Aussies but I don't expect them to get anything out of this match. Wahbi Khazri is the danger man to watch for Tunisia. He has 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 4 Tunisia goals at the world cup.

LEAN
Joakim Maehle anytime goal scorer @ 5.50/+450 Bet365

[franz555]

I took Denmark to win their Group a couple weeks ago.

Argentina should cruise tomorrow

BOL

[DiamondJack]

Poland v Mexico





11. Poland PK @ 2.19/+119 (1u) Pinnacle



Here we have an instance of brand name bias. Mexico usually have had really decent teams over the past 30 years and managed to get out of their group all the time where as Poland has never made it out of their group since 1986. Let me tell you this Mexican side is the worse in decades. They failed to win one game vs Canada and the USA in qualification both home and away and could not even beat Costa Rica at home. Tato Martinez is on a short leash and IMO will be the first manager to get canned.

Lets look at the 2 teams both nations have played recently. Poland wins versus Chile & Mexico draws Chile. Poland beats Sweden and Mexico loses to Sweden. Mexico will most likely have the majority of the ball as Poland usually love to counter. Initially I liked the draw but the value is in Poland draw no bet. Likely scoreline 1-1, 2-1 Poland.



LEAN

BTTS YES @ 2.06/+106 Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

I took Denmark to win their Group a couple weeks ago.

Argentina should cruise tomorrow

BOL

same here lets cash it

[k13]

They beat N Ireland at the 2016 Euros in their opener.......and Mexico's squad SUCKS. Brand name bias with Mexico, as I said they failed to beat both the USA & Canada at home and away in qualification and even at the Azteca could not beat Costa Rica

Look at the line now.
Mexico a lock.

[Goat Milk]

GROUP F


1. Belgium 2. Croatia 3. Morocco 4. Canada


I have a feeling that one of the 2 fav's if not both could implode in this group. I do think that Morocco and/or Canada could advance out of the group. All the hopes for Canada will rest on the health of Alfonso Davies if he is ruled out like his teammate at Munich Sadio Mane its hello last place for the Canucks.
The dark horses Morocco are led by a new coach and the star duo Ziyech & Hakimi. I picked them in the African cup of Nations and they were crashed out early. They were perfect in their qualifiers and had a 20-1 goal differential. There is value on them to advance out of this group.
I put Belgium on top hesitantly. Is Lukaku fully healthy?. Hazard has barely played at Real Madrid. I keep thinking the Roberto Martinez era with the golden generation is about to end. On paper however this team is the class of the group.
It is hard to believe that Croatia will equal their great run at Russia 2018. They lack a clear cut number 1 keeper. The midfied is still world class with the likes of Kovavic, Brozovic and the older but still effective Luka Modric.
I'm expecting chaos in this group so I will be backing the dogs in individual matches

7. Morocco to advance @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Skybet
(I was going to add Canada to qualify as well at +300 but not without Davies)

Lukaku will not be playing in the group stages imo. Hazard is not a shell of himself, but 4 years ago, he was a top 5 or 10 player in the world. Now he's still a good player, just not at that level. However, 4 years ago, De Bruyne was not what he is today. De Bruyne is the second best player in the world right now, after Messi, imo. I don't see Belgium losing this group. And if Lukaku can get back and healthy, they will be a team no one wants to face. De Bruyne should be able to win this group by himself, he's that good.

[Goat Milk]

.....with the news of Sane out injured, Senegal are toast

8. Senegal to finish bottom @ 4.00/+300

I think Senegal is a rock solid team, I had them going pretty deep in the tourney prior to them losing their best player. I still think they can rally even after that poor effort today. Lot of talent on this team. But a bad start for sure.

[DiamondJack]

France v Australia



12. Total goals Under 2.5 @ 2.19/+119 (1u) Marathon


Even with all the drama and a plethora of injuries in the French squad they will field a starting 11 that is head and shoulders more superior to Australia. There is no value in backing Les Blues at the current odds. Form wise the Aussies have won 5 straight where as France have only won once in the past 5 games. These sides met at the last world cup where France came out on top 2-1, there were 2 penalties and an own goal in that game.
I like the value in the total here. France have gone 5 games going under 2.5 goals and Australia's last 3 games have also gone under. Getting plus money here is worth a shot.

LEAN
HT Result DRAW @ 2.77/+177 Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Morocco v Croatia


13. Total cards OVER 4 @ 1.91/-110 (1u) Bet365


I already have a future on Morocco to advance so I'm hoping for a decent showing from them in their opener. Croatia are a very difficult team for me to read. I really won't be surprised if one of them or Belgium burn out in the group stage. I will wait to see the results before betting against them.
I do like a card prop here as the referee for this game is Fernando Rapallini from Argentina and he averages 5.20 yellow cards per game and a sending off in almost 40% of his games. We have yet to see a red card in the tournament and those count as 2 cards in card prop betting.

LEAN
Morocco +0.25 @ 2.08/+108 Bet365

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack, want to ask you a question about the CRO/MAR match:

*How much do you change Morocco's rating based on Ziyech (Chelsea) being in the squad?

I thought Morocco was pretty unlucky in 2018. Couldn't seem to catch a break. Really should have beaten Spain.

Morocco has gone thru some coaching transition. Ziyech un-retired b/c of the new coach. Man, I wish Morocco still had Renaud (the guy who is now head of Saudi Arabia).