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1 cardComment -
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Japan v Costa Rica
NO PLAYS
Costa Rica were demolished 7-0 so not only will they be playing for pride but also for the 3 points. Japan upset Germany 2-1 and are in a great position to advance with a victory here. The odds therefore based on recency bias are overvaluing Japan and undervaluing the Ticos. Japan are the better team and should win but I'm not betting them at the prices. Since the early games are more in the heat of the day am leaning on the under but I would have preferred a better price.
LEAN
Under 2.5 @ 1.84/-119 UnibetComment -
Jr--
Jay--
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5 yellow plastics and a nice 2 goal cushionComment -
Belgium v Morocco
27. Morocco +0.5 @ 1.89/-112 (1u) Unibet
Morocco started the tournament with a draw against Croatia where as Belgium narrowly defeated Canada 1-0. Belgium clearly miss Lukaku up front and it does not look like he will play in this contest. Belgium looked slow and old Croatia looked much better versus Morocco in their game. With 3 points in their pocket Belgium would not be devastated with a draw. Morocco form wise are now undefeated in their last six games. Belgium going back since June are a lack luster 4 wins 3 losses and 1 draw.
LEAN
Draw @ 3.45/+245 UnibetComment -
Belgium did not look good in game 1, and Canada looked great. Belgium still won, because ultimately they have world class players, and the best goalie in the tournament, and Canada has no world class players comparitvely.
If you look around, even without Lukaku, they are loaded. The 5th best player on Belgium is better than Morocco's best player. But I think Belgium can still be exposed if they don't get their chemistry on point. Which right now, it isn't. Hazard is still not 100%. No Lukaku like you said. Tielemans still finding his footing.
De Bruyne is the second best player in this tournament to me, after Messi of course. Belgium is going to be a force to be reckoned with going forward when everyone is in a groove. This game, I wish you good luck, but be careful betting against them when the real cup starts.
My two cents.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Canada v Croatia
28. Total Cards OVER 4 @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365
I don't know what to expect from Canada or Croatia in this second round so I'm staying away from playing a side or total and waiting for in game opportunities. The one angle I love is the card prop. If there is one thing for sure in this world cup is that you do not want referee Andres Matonte from Argentina to be in charge of your games. The guy is a mad man and averages more yellow and red cards then any other ref in the tournament. Yellows 5.6 per match. Reds in 57% of his games. Add to that fact that Canada's coach needlessly pisses of the Croatians with his comments, this will get heated.
LEAN
Total Cards OVER 4.5 @ 2.20/+120 Bet365Comment -
Germany v Spain
29. FT DRAW @ 3.52/+252 (1u) Marathon
Germany were handed a life line with Japan losing their game versus Costa Rica. Spain already have 3 points in their pocket and will most likely play not to lose here. Both of these football giants now should be able to advance knowing their final group game will be very much winnable. Spain is to good to lose here and Germany can;t afford to lose so I'm on the draw.
LEAN
CS 1-1 @ 6.40/+540 UnibetComment -
Cameroon v Serbia
30. Serbia ML @ 1.81/-123 (2u) Unibet
31. A. Mitrovic anytime goalscorer @ 2.30/+130 (1u) Bet365
32. D. Vlahovic anytime goalscorer @ 2.30/+130 (1u) Bet365
Once again backing the better team in this fixture. Outside of their opening game loss to Brazil Serbia were undefeated in 6. Cameroon go into this match now winless in their past 5 after losing to Switzerland. I rate the Swiss and Serbia almost the same so when I becked The Swiss on the ML versus Cameroon I will do the same and fade Cameroon here.
Mitrovic has been really hot lately with 17 goals scored in his past 20 games for club and country. As has Vlahovic who has scored 5 goals in his last 10. I think one of these if not both put one into the net on Monday.
LEAN
NONEComment -
Korea v Ghana
33. South Korea PK @ 1.78/-128 (1u) Pinnacle
I'm backing the draw no bet here as Korea really impressed me versus a much superior opponent in Uruguay getting a point there. Ghana lost their opener to Portugal and looked vulnerable conceding 3 goals. South Korea beat Cameroon back in September 1-0 an opponent similar to Ghana. I expect Korea to go all out for a win here as their last match opponent is Portugal. I also think their talisman Son scores their first goal here.
LEAN
Son Heung-Min to score anytime @ 2.75/+175 Bet365Comment -
Brazil v Switzerland
34. Switzerland +1.25 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle
Brazil will be without injured Neymar and Danilo. Brazil beat Serbia 2-0 in their opener, The Swiss are a much better side defensively then Serbia. The last meeting between these sides at the last world cup ended in a 1-1 draw. The 2 meetings prior to that, the Swiss win 1-0 in 2013 & Brazil wins 2-1 in 2006. Brazil is overvalued here and getting the goal plus a quarter is value. Brazil have lowly Cameroon on tap that they should dismantle with ease. Staying healthy in this compact world cup will be key for Brazil so a draw here or a 1-0 result for Brazil is the most likely outcome.
LEAN
HT Result DRAW @ 2.43/+143 UnibetComment -
Portugal v Uruguay
35. Uruguay +0.5 @ 1.88/-119 (1u) Bet365
The last time these sides met was at the last world cup back in 2018 when Uruguay got the better of Portugal winning 2-1. Portugal looked weak at the back in their opening game versus Ghana conceding 2 goals. Portugal now have a key injury concern as Danilo broke his ribs in training and now will be replaced by 39 year old Pepe. I'm expecting a cautious approach to the game as both sides will play not to lose. Portugal is over valued here at evens as I would have them priced at around +130. Even though I'm backing Portugal to go on a run in this world cup, there is too much value to pass up with Uruguay in this match.
LEAN
FT Result DRAW @ 3.38/+238 PinnacleComment -
Qatar v Netherlands
36. Netherlands -2 @ 2.07/+107 (1u) Bet365
37. M. Depay anytime goalscorer 2.12/+112 (1u) Unibet
Qatar was able to buy the tournament but it looks like they could not buy a result. Now they face the group favourites in what in all aspects should be a mauling. Th Dutch need to win to guarantee first place and avoid most likely England in the round of 16. Memphis Depay should start for the first time and I think he will feast on this Qatari team that has nothing to play for except pride. Before going down with injury he was my golden boot pick. I expect that if he is healthy he scores.
LEAN
Total Goals Over 3.5 @ 2.35/+135 UnibetComment -
Sound reasoning DJ
Dutch should cruise
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Senegal v Ecuador
38. FT Result DRAW @ 3.22/+222 (1u) Bet365
Ecuador just need a single point to advance out of this group. Draws have been their specialty with 6 of the past 9 games ending level. Ecuador has also been very good defensively registering 7 clean sheets in their past 8 games with only Holland getting one goal against them. Senegal beat up on a poor Qatar side but lost to the Netherlands and were not able to score. Once again without Sadio Mane I can't back this side to advance.
LEAN
HT/FT Result DRAW/DRAW @ 4.33/+333 UnibetComment -
Adding
Senegal v Ecuador
39. Total Cards OVER 4.5 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Bet365
Forgot that Ecuador are the dirtiest at the show and this game means somethingComment -
Just wtf was that pk for. Ref and his handlers are heavy on Senegal. That is pure bullshitComment -
In on USA at even odds. Iran and the sheiks can all
kiss my ass! Let's do this!
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USA v Iran
40. Total Goals Under 2 @ 2.17/+117 (1u) Pinnacle
If there is anything that Carlos Queiros is good at its parking the bus. Iran's manager is defence first oriented. A draw gets them through so they will sit back and try to counter. I expect the United States to have more possession of the ball. I expect a very nervous cagey encounter. The card prop is set too high in my opinion at 5.5, but I might like it in game for the second half depending on the circumstances. 1-0 final for the United States seems likely.
LEAN
CS USA 1-0 @ 6.50/+550 Bet365Comment -
Wales v England
NO PLAYS
I don't have any plays here as Wales is hoping to win and praying the USA/Iran game ends in a draw. Depending on what is going on at half time this is a game I'm betting in play. Both teams are in poor form as Wales is winless in their past 7 games and England have only 1 win in their past 8. The past 6 head to head games have all been won by England. In those 6 games Wales only scored 1 goal.
LEAN
Total Goals Under 2.5 @ 1.88/-114 MarathonComment -
I played both teams to score in USA game. I think its a very real possibility that the game ends in a 1-1 draw. I hope not as I want USA to win and advance but handicapping wise I can see this ending in a draw because Iran knows they just need a draw to advance whereas USA has to win.Last edited by jrgum3; 11-29-22, 02:37 PM.Comment -
Denmark v Australia
41. Denmark win to Nil @ 2.40/+140 (1u) Unibet
France v Tunisia
42. Half with most goals 2nd @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Bet365Comment -
BOL today DJ
Think Denmark play lights out football with their backs to the wallComment -
Mexico v Saudi Arabia
43. Total Cards OVER 4.5 @ 1.93/-107 (1u) Unibet
A meeting between the 8th and 9th ranked most carded teams. A pro Saudi crowd will be in the ears of the referee and I expect cards as both sides will go all out trying to win. Playing not to lose won't help either side and I expect Mexico to have problems with the speed of the Saudis on the counter.
LEAN
Red Card in match Yes @ 6.25/+525 UnibetComment -
Poland v Argentina
44. Total Goals OVER 2.5 @ 2.25/+125 (1u) Marathon
There is too much value at plus money not to back the over when you have Lewandowski on one side and Messi on the other. Argentina need the win to advance and I think they get it. Poland will sit back letting Argentina to control the game happy with the draw but eventually they will be broken down. Thinking 3-1, 2-1 final.
LEAN
BTTS Yes @ 2.48/+148 UnibetComment -
What round do the ties don't count or happen? You play to win only in other words? I know at the world cup it starts at some point? I guess I can google it.
I'll start betting my ass off when that starts anyways. Really cap the match ups!Comment
