[DiamondJack]

Greetings everyone
We are a few days away from kick off of the biggest tournament in footy. I will as always try to look for value on a menu of wagers that is bigger then ever thanks to the growth of the industry over the past decade. My individual game posts will start when the officials are announced. That according to FIFA is 72 hours prior to kickoff. Tuesday November 15th is the date when all the squads will be finalized.
In my opinion I expect this "winter" world cup will be very chalky. The players are not worn out as they would be at the end of a long season in June. All the stadiums are very close so there is no crazy travel as there was in Russia and Brazil. The weather will be great no crazy heat or humidity. All these factors should make it a great tournament for the players.
I do not fancy any team outside of UEFA or CONMEBOL to make it to the final four. I will be playing a few futures before the whole show kicks off.

[DiamondJack]

The Golden Boot

The award presented to the top goalscorer. The top 6 favourites according to the odds makers are Kane, Mbappe, Messi, Neymar, Benzema & Ronaldo. Can anyone of these win it? sure, but they offer zero value. I need odds of at least 20-1 to back anyone. No one has ever won more than one and I don't think Kane repeats as in 2018 he had 5 goals against two cupcakes Tunisia & Panama. England's group is not as easy as it was the last world cup. It helps if your team makes it to the final but not necessary as in the case of James Rodriguez in 2014. In 2010 & 2006 it took only 5 goals to win it with the likes of Muller & Klose. In 1994 Salenko scored 5 goals for Russia in ONE game. So digging deep I am throwing some pizza money on 2 long shots;
1. Lautaro Martinez (ARG) @ 26.00/+2500 (1/2 unit) Bet365
2. Robert Lewandowski (POL) @ 51.00/+5000 (1/2 unit) WillHill
Both of the players will play the worst team in the tournament in Saudi Arabia and it would be no surprise if we see a hat trick versus that weak team.
I believe Martinez might become the story of the world cup. In the past 15 games for Argentina he has scored in 10 of them. Argentina plays both bad defences in Poland & Mexico and as mentioned before the horrible Saudis. Argentina is second fav to win the cup so expect 7 games if they make it to the final 4 which I believe they will.
This is most likely the last world cup for Lewandowski who needs no introduction. The Polish striker averages roughly a goal per game. Poland could get 4 games and one crazy goal scoring appearance could be in the cards. It also helps he is the penalty taker for Poland. At 50-1 sign me up.

[DiamondJack]

GROUP A


1. Netherlands 2. Qatar 3. Senegal 4. Ecuador

No surprise I am backing the Dutch to top the table in this easy group. Even without a clear choice goalkeeper and a banged up Memphis Depay they should win every game with ease.
I am picking Qatar to advance on home soil here. Every host nation has advanced out of the group outside of South Africa and even they had 4 points in their group. Qatar has spent millions in their preparations on every aspect of the game. On a neutral locations they are the weakest side but they are at home. Qatar has won the 2019 Asian Cup and have plenty of tournament experience. Qatar did not purchase the world cup to exit in the group stage. As the saying goes the answer to your question is the money.
Sadio Mane is injured outside of him where are the goals going to come from? Losses to Zambia and Liberia are worrisome. They are solid at the back but Leipzig's Diallo is also banged up.
As with Senegal, I also ask of Ecuador where are the goals going to come from?. Enner Valencia is old now and playing for Fenerbahce. They are a team built to defend and counter. Recent results are not great having only 2 wins and that was against Cabo Verde and Nigeria. I'm picking them to finish bottom.

3. Qatar to qualify @ 4.25/+325 (1u) Unibet

(One could also consider a dual forecast bet of Qatar & Netherlands @ 7.00/+600 at Will Hill)

[DiamondJack]

GROUP B



1. England 2. USA 3. Wales 4. Iran


This was a very difficult group for me to analyze. I think that England have the quality to top the group despite their recent poor run of form that now sees them winless in their last 6 matches that include 2 losses to Hungary. That leaves three teams that could very well finish in any order. Wales come into the tournament winless in their last 5 games and are led by Bale who now plays in the MLS and has had plenty of poor showings for LA. Iran has fired their coach in July and brought back Carlos for another kick at the can. Players are involved in anti government positions and its hard to tell what to expect from them. The United States are a young and more skilled side in comparison to Iran & Wales and I picked them to qualify despite the fact that their only victory in their last 5 games came versus lowly Granada.
There is no value in backing England to win this group and I would have needed plus money to back the United States to qualify and they just came up short at evens across the board. No futures for me from this group. Expect the unexpected as they say in group b.

[DiamondJack]

GROUP C


1. Argentina 2. Poland 3. Mexico 4. Saudi Arabia


This is going to be a walk in the park for Argentina. The last time they lost a game was back in 2019. They are on a 35 game undefeated run. They come into this tournament with squad depth they have not had in over 2 decades. They are my pick to win the world cup, however I will not be betting them outright at +550 as you can get more value on them by betting them round by round and rolling over the stakes.
Saudi Arabia are the absolute worse team in Qatar. Their strategy will be to park the bus and hope to get lucky somehow, as this team has no attacking threat whatsoever. All the players play in the Saudi league and aside from maube stealing a point I pick them to finish bottom.
Mexico come to Qatar with their worse team in decades. Yes they still qualified but they were winless versus Canada & the USA both home and away in qualification. Their recent wins were versus such world beaters like Iraq, Peru & Suriname. Jimenez is injured which leaves Napoli's Lozano to try to carry the team. Mexico will break the trend of the 5th game as in that they will not qualify out of the group for the first time in forever.
Poland have a deeper squad then Mexico. Lewandowski will want to improve on his 2018 production in Russia and as this will be his swan song he has all the motivation in the world. I personally like Zielinski from Napoli as well as Cash & Bednarek from Aston Villa to have a good tournament. Poland to qualify is the same price as the USA is, yet Poland only really need to beat out Mexico. So I like them to qet through.

4. Poland to qualify @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Unibet

[Optional]

Interesting write-ups Jack.

You've made me think again about Qatar and USA chances to advance.

[lakerboy]

Why does everyone think england will win the group for sure?

[Optional]

Why does everyone think england will win the group for sure?

Every WC there are lots of England believers.

I remember feeling hopeful for them last time even as a non-Englishman.


But this time don't you agree they are the clear standout in their group?

[lakerboy]

Every WC there are lots of England believers.

I remember feeling hopeful for them last time even as a non-Englishman.


But this time don't you agree they are the clear standout in their group?

On paper yes. They can easily fail to get wins vs USA and Wales and we both know Iran will play for the scoreless draw.

Have you noticed that odds for england to win this tournament have gone up substantially ?

2nd place? Bad matchup Rd of 16?

[DiamondJack]

GROUP D



1. Denmark 2. France 3. Tunisia 4. Australia


It is a trendy pick to be backing the Danes for one simple reason. They seem to have France's number. France is winless versus Denmark in their past 3 head to head meetings. 2 losses this year both home and away plus a draw last world cup in Russia. Is the curse of the title holders real? I don't see France imploding but I see them getting knocked out in the round of 16 as Argentina gets their revenge.
I do not give Tunisia a chance here as their only noteworthy player is Skhiri the defensive midfielder from Koln. The Aussies are also missing that superstar player that can be a game changer. Australia have struggled in qualification losing twice to Japan and being unable to beat the Saudis. They even drew with China and Oman. Barring a miracle they finish bottom.

5. Denmark to win Group D @ 4.00/+300 (1u) Bet365
(I'm also leaning on Australia to finish bottom at evens)

[Thefix13]

Why does everyone think england will win the group for sure?

Because the USA is an embarrassment and England has battle tested players from the EPL. Can they meltdown and lose a few games? Sure, but the odds are in their favor.

[JayLA]

Mexico are gamecocks...they always overachieve when the matches start

[DiamondJack]

GROUP E



1. Spain 2. Germany 3. Japan 4. Costa Rica


Spain and Germany are the favourites due to mostly brand name bias. I don't fancy either side to go far in Qatar. Germany has only 4 wins in the past 10 versus sides that are not at the tournament; Oman, Israel, Armenia & Italy. I don't trust their manager Flick, but they should have enough quality to qualify. Spain will be hurting my eyeballs again just like the last world cup where their only win came versus Iran 1-0 as they tried to pass the ball into the opponents opposition. No value in backing either side IMO.
Japan are sneaky good that will take some points away from the 2 big sides. They have only one loss in 2022 and that was 1-0 to Brazil. They have a plenty of great talent, Minamino, Kubo, Doan, Kamada, Tomiyasu etc. and its unfortunate that they were drawn into this group. I give them 4 or 5 points as they make life difficult for Germany and Spain
Costa Rica are led by old keeper Keylor Nevas and not much else. They had their runs in the past world cups but its too much to ask this time around. They lose all their games and finish bottom as the rebuild begins.

6. Costa Rica total points 0 @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Skybet

[lakerboy]

Germany actually has value though. Flick is the sharpest manager at the tournament and German pedigree is second to none.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack, thx for posting. I know you do your research to generate great writeups. Good Luck.

My two comments about the games:
1) Man, USA better be strong enough to beat Wales. If our talented roster can't beat a team w/ Population of 2.0Million, it's a bad sign.
2) The England over-rated motif is perpetual. Basically back to when they won on home soil. I really think the reason is that most of the SOCCER WRITERS are English, so they are always pumping up their mates.

Jack, sadly I haven't been paying attention. Finally going to take some time off to watch the games later this week.

[JayLA]

México stage of elimination 'Round of 16' +175 looks interesting

[DiamondJack]

JayLA--
Chucky--
Laker--
Optional--
Thefix--

[DiamondJack]

GROUP F


1. Belgium 2. Croatia 3. Morocco 4. Canada


I have a feeling that one of the 2 fav's if not both could implode in this group. I do think that Morocco and/or Canada could advance out of the group. All the hopes for Canada will rest on the health of Alfonso Davies if he is ruled out like his teammate at Munich Sadio Mane its hello last place for the Canucks.
The dark horses Morocco are led by a new coach and the star duo Ziyech & Hakimi. I picked them in the African cup of Nations and they were crashed out early. They were perfect in their qualifiers and had a 20-1 goal differential. There is value on them to advance out of this group.
I put Belgium on top hesitantly. Is Lukaku fully healthy?. Hazard has barely played at Real Madrid. I keep thinking the Roberto Martinez era with the golden generation is about to end. On paper however this team is the class of the group.
It is hard to believe that Croatia will equal their great run at Russia 2018. They lack a clear cut number 1 keeper. The midfied is still world class with the likes of Kovavic, Brozovic and the older but still effective Luka Modric.
I'm expecting chaos in this group so I will be backing the dogs in individual matches

7. Morocco to advance @ 3.25/+225 (1u) Skybet
(I was going to add Canada to qualify as well at +300 but not without Davies)

[DiamondJack]

GROUP G

1. Brazil 2. Switzerland 3. Serbia 4. Cameroon


Group G seems very straight forward to me as 3 of these sides met in the same group in 2018. Brazil drew the Swiss and both Brazil and the Swiss beat Serbia. I think Brazil is more improved if that sounds possible, and will top this group with ease. They are the rightful favourites to win the whole thing and a trip to the final 4 is in their future.
Serbia has only scored 2 goals in their last 3 world cups. There are injury concerns with Veljkovic & Lukic banged up. They should score with Mitrovic and Vlahovic up front so I will be looking to bet player props when they face Cameroon. The Swiss also have Embolo and Okafar who should also offer value in player props especially when facing Cameroon
Cameroon should finish bottom I don't think they stand a chance in this group. I do not have any futures bets in this group as I agree here with the books as there is a clear 1 & 4 with a coin flip for second place.

[k13]

México stage of elimination 'Round of 16' +175 looks interesting

Just play Mexico ML +175 vs Poland

[DiamondJack]

GROUP H


1. Portugal 2. Uruguay 3. Korea 4. Ghana


I have never been so high on Portugal as I am here. This team needs to get away from Ronaldo's shadow and I think that started at the Euros in which they won the final versus France without him. They also won the Nations league and I will back them to reach the final which they will lose to Argentina. FIFA's dream of Ronaldo versus Messi in both of their last world cups could be coming true. The duel fore cast of them and Uruguay to win the group does not pay enough and winning the group is not that much of incentive as both will face either Spain or Germany.
I don't expect Korea or Ghana to challenge the top 2 here. With Son's injury you never know if he'll be going into challenges at a 100%. Korea has had recent losses to Japan, The United Arab Emirates and they could not even beat Costa Rica. Ghana also has had some worrying results losing to Japan 4-1 drawing with the Central African Republic and losing to the Comoros Islands.
If you have multiple shops that you bet on I did bet heavy on Ghana to finish bottom at +110 & Korea to finish bottom at +125 to basically almost guarantee myself a profit but for the sake of this thread I will not post me trying to scalp prices.

[DiamondJack]

Just play Mexico ML +175 vs Poland

They can Draw the opener and still go through in goal difference

[lakerboy]

GROUP G

1. Brazil 2. Switzerland 3. Serbia 4. Cameroon


Group G seems very straight forward to me as 3 of these sides met in the same group in 2018. Brazil drew the Swiss and both Brazil and the Swiss beat Serbia. I think Brazil is more improved if that sounds possible, and will top this group with ease. They are the rightful favourites to win the whole thing and a trip to the final 4 is in their future.
Serbia has only scored 2 goals in their last 3 world cups. There are injury concerns with Veljkovic & Lukic banged up. They should score with Mitrovic and Vlahovic up front so I will be looking to bet player props when they face Cameroon. The Swiss also have Embolo and Okafar who should also offer value in player props especially when facing Cameroon
Cameroon should finish bottom I don't think they stand a chance in this group. I do not have any futures bets in this group as I agree here with the books as there is a clear 1 & 4 with a coin flip for second place.

Serbia might make the semifinals. +450 to make the quarterfinals is really easy money .

[k13]

They can Draw the opener and still go through in goal difference

Poland's track record at major tournaments in first games is terrible.
Lose first game all the time.

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16:
Netherlands beats USA
England beats Qatar
Argentina beats France
Denmark beats Poland
Spain beats Morocco
Belgium beats Germany
Brazil over Uruguay
Portugal over Switzerland

Quarterfinals
Brazil beats Spain
Argentina beats Netherlands
Portugal beats Belgium
Denmark beats England

Semifinals
Argentina beats Brazil
Portugal beats Denmark

3rd Place
Brazil beats Denmark

Finals
Argentina beats Portugal

[DiamondJack]

Poland's track record at major tournaments in first games is terrible.
Lose first game all the time.

They beat N Ireland at the 2016 Euros in their opener.......and Mexico's squad SUCKS. Brand name bias with Mexico, as I said they failed to beat both the USA & Canada at home and away in qualification and even at the Azteca could not beat Costa Rica

[DiamondJack]

Serbia might make the semifinals. +450 to make the quarterfinals is really easy money .

??? I would need 10-1 odds to back Serbia as a future. Just do the math and if you really want to back Serbia bet them to qualify at around evens and then roll over your winnings and bet them to qualify again where they will be dogs vs Portugal/Uruguay.

Most of these futures are a numbers game where the bookies get significant mathematical advantage.

[DiamondJack]

Its odd how many of my predictions mirror the 1986 World Cup
- Last time Morocco advanced to rd 16 and lost
- Last time Poland advanced to rd 16 and lost
- Last time Argentina won the World Cup
- Last time Canada featured at the tournament
- Denmark won their Group

[jjgold]

Jack how are your handicapping skills soccer??

[lakerboy]

??? I would need 10-1 odds to back Serbia as a future. Just do the math and if you really want to back Serbia bet them to qualify at around evens and then roll over your winnings and bet them to qualify again where they will be dogs vs Portugal/Uruguay.

Most of these futures are a numbers game where the bookies get significant mathematical advantage.

You remember what Serbia did to Portugal? I'm not interested in making all these bets chasing one team. Serbia will get out of the group. If they play one of the teams you mentioned I would feel good.

[DiamondJack]

Jack how are your handicapping skills soccer??

see my posts from the past tournaments last World Cup, Gold Cup, Asian Cup, Euros, African Cup etc....very much in the green

[DiamondJack]

You remember what Serbia did to Portugal? I'm not interested in making all these bets chasing one team. Serbia will get out of the group. If they play one of the teams you mentioned I would feel good.

All I'm saying is that if you think that Serbia will make it to the QF you would be better off with my strategy than just giving the books the mathematical advantage of taking them as a future at +450 which you stated as easy money

[lakerboy]

All I'm saying is that if you think that Serbia will make it to the QF you would be better off with my strategy than just giving the books the mathematical advantage of taking them as a future at +450 which you stated as easy money

Good luck on the tournament. Excellent write ups. Definitely agreed on the Canada group.

[DiamondJack]

laker--

[DiamondJack]

It's also odd to see so many super stars most likely featuring in their last world cup;
Messi, Ronaldo, Modric, Lewandowski & Neuer