PSG to win the Champions League?
Since the 2010-11 season, only five clubs have won the Champions League title. What did they have in common?
Scoring enough goals
In domestic play, all of the previous nine winners averaged at least 1.7 goals per game. That low-point number, unsurprisingly, belongs to Chelsea. After all, they finished sixth in their own league that season; however, they sported a solid plus-19 goal differential and won the Champions League while Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo were at their peaks. We're not talking about a bunch of scrubs here. Plus, including an outsider team such as Chelsea in the numbers makes this exercise more interesting, as it accounts for the possibility of a non-favorite winning the whole thing.
Goals against
Defense, it turns out, has tended to win championships over the past decade. Who knew?
Of the previous nine winners, five gave up fewer than one goal per match, and four of them -- both Barcelona sides, Liverpool and Bayern Munich -- were below 0.6. In fact, no team in this season's field is below 0.6 goals allowed per match, with Liverpool landing exactly on that mark. However, weaker defenses have won titles, too. Two of Zidane's Madrid teams, along with Carlo Ancelotti's Madrid team, allowed north of one goal per match. The worst defense, though, was, again, Roberto di Matteo's Chelsea, who let in 1.21 goals per game on their way to the trophy.
Game control
Rather than looking at pure possession numbers, the next step after goals scored/allowed is to look at how the remaining teams control the field. How good are they at all the things that happen before the ball ends up in the net? To do this, we can see how many passes a team allows in their final third and compare that to how many passes a team completes in their opponent's final third. Then we can take those two numbers and determine a team's percentage share of final-third passes.
Unsurprisingly, Barcelona lead the way among the previous winners, but perhaps surprisingly, No. 1 is Luis Enrique's team, not Pep Guardiola's. The 2014-15 vintage completed 74% of the final-third passes in their matches, compared to the 10-11 side's measly 73.1%. Bayern, Liverpool and 2017-18 Madrid were also all north of 60%. Last place, once again, was Chelsea, with 56.1% of final-third passes.
Shots, shots, shots
The six teams left in this exercise are a bit harder to separate. If we look at how they press, all six are above the threshold of the previous winners. The minimum average starting point for all of their sequences -- a proxy for how high up the field they win the ball back -- is 47.7 meters from their own goal. That number belongs to Real, but they're still significantly above 2011-12 Chelsea's mark of 45.9 meters. Man City, for what it's worth, start their average sequence 53 meters from their own goal, which is higher than that of any of the past nine winners.
In terms of how fast they win the ball back -- something known as "passes allowed per defensive action" (PPDA) -- all six are lower than Chelsea's 13.26. Liverpool's high mark of 11.02 is still below where they were last season, when they, you know, won the Champions League. This season's most aggressive pressers are PSG (8.03), but they're still significantly behind Barcelona's mark of 6.98 in 2014-15. That side also scored more goals and gave up fewer goals than any other team in this season's field.
Fouls
Listen, we're nitpicking here, all right? One of the only remaining differentiating factors for these three teams is how often they foul their opponents. Among the past nine champs, only one committed more than 12 fouls per match: 2012-13 Bayern Munich, who hacked down the opposition 13 times per match. At the other end sit last season's Liverpool, who committed 8.29 fouls per game.
Passes
And then there were two: Liverpool and PSG, who played a pair of the more thrilling group-stage matches in last season's tournament.
It sure seems as if PSG are trying to find a new absurd way to exit the competition every year. First, it was La Remontada, when they blew a 4-0 first-leg lead to Barcelona. Then they bought Neymar, the Barcelona player who led that comeback, only for him to miss the second leg of their round of 16 matchup with eventual winners Real Madrid. Then last year, of course, Neymar didn't play in either match against Manchester United, and despite winning the first leg at Old Trafford 2-0, PSG were eliminated by a last-minute penalty awarded by VAR for a handball on a shot that probably wasn't going to end up anywhere near the goal frame.
Scoring enough goals
In domestic play, all of the previous nine winners averaged at least 1.7 goals per game. That low-point number, unsurprisingly, belongs to Chelsea. After all, they finished sixth in their own league that season; however, they sported a solid plus-19 goal differential and won the Champions League while Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo were at their peaks. We're not talking about a bunch of scrubs here. Plus, including an outsider team such as Chelsea in the numbers makes this exercise more interesting, as it accounts for the possibility of a non-favorite winning the whole thing.
Goals against
Defense, it turns out, has tended to win championships over the past decade. Who knew?
Of the previous nine winners, five gave up fewer than one goal per match, and four of them -- both Barcelona sides, Liverpool and Bayern Munich -- were below 0.6. In fact, no team in this season's field is below 0.6 goals allowed per match, with Liverpool landing exactly on that mark. However, weaker defenses have won titles, too. Two of Zidane's Madrid teams, along with Carlo Ancelotti's Madrid team, allowed north of one goal per match. The worst defense, though, was, again, Roberto di Matteo's Chelsea, who let in 1.21 goals per game on their way to the trophy.
Game control
Rather than looking at pure possession numbers, the next step after goals scored/allowed is to look at how the remaining teams control the field. How good are they at all the things that happen before the ball ends up in the net? To do this, we can see how many passes a team allows in their final third and compare that to how many passes a team completes in their opponent's final third. Then we can take those two numbers and determine a team's percentage share of final-third passes.
Unsurprisingly, Barcelona lead the way among the previous winners, but perhaps surprisingly, No. 1 is Luis Enrique's team, not Pep Guardiola's. The 2014-15 vintage completed 74% of the final-third passes in their matches, compared to the 10-11 side's measly 73.1%. Bayern, Liverpool and 2017-18 Madrid were also all north of 60%. Last place, once again, was Chelsea, with 56.1% of final-third passes.
Shots, shots, shots
The six teams left in this exercise are a bit harder to separate. If we look at how they press, all six are above the threshold of the previous winners. The minimum average starting point for all of their sequences -- a proxy for how high up the field they win the ball back -- is 47.7 meters from their own goal. That number belongs to Real, but they're still significantly above 2011-12 Chelsea's mark of 45.9 meters. Man City, for what it's worth, start their average sequence 53 meters from their own goal, which is higher than that of any of the past nine winners.
In terms of how fast they win the ball back -- something known as "passes allowed per defensive action" (PPDA) -- all six are lower than Chelsea's 13.26. Liverpool's high mark of 11.02 is still below where they were last season, when they, you know, won the Champions League. This season's most aggressive pressers are PSG (8.03), but they're still significantly behind Barcelona's mark of 6.98 in 2014-15. That side also scored more goals and gave up fewer goals than any other team in this season's field.
Fouls
Listen, we're nitpicking here, all right? One of the only remaining differentiating factors for these three teams is how often they foul their opponents. Among the past nine champs, only one committed more than 12 fouls per match: 2012-13 Bayern Munich, who hacked down the opposition 13 times per match. At the other end sit last season's Liverpool, who committed 8.29 fouls per game.
Passes
And then there were two: Liverpool and PSG, who played a pair of the more thrilling group-stage matches in last season's tournament.
It sure seems as if PSG are trying to find a new absurd way to exit the competition every year. First, it was La Remontada, when they blew a 4-0 first-leg lead to Barcelona. Then they bought Neymar, the Barcelona player who led that comeback, only for him to miss the second leg of their round of 16 matchup with eventual winners Real Madrid. Then last year, of course, Neymar didn't play in either match against Manchester United, and despite winning the first leg at Old Trafford 2-0, PSG were eliminated by a last-minute penalty awarded by VAR for a handball on a shot that probably wasn't going to end up anywhere near the goal frame.