My soccer betting diary - my quest to 40% profit

**Deenoz** · 12-10-18, 03:18 PM

good luck.

**hfaruk10** · 12-13-18, 03:10 PM

As the champions league matches finished I want to share a couple of points with respect to why I chose to bet a draw on both Liverpool vs Napoli and Ajax vs Bayern.

First I looked at previously played home matches for Liverpool and away mathes for Napoli in the CL. I also took into account that Liverpool's form varied greatly in this group stage. On the other hand Napoli showed consistency and I think did not lose any match so far in the CL group stage.
The match was full of chances on both sides, and I have to say that Napoli disappointed me with their approach to this match. They were a bit of afraid and complacent as if they were going for a draw. Van Diyk's tackle should have been a red card after which Mertens never fully recovered and did not show his full capacity.
The last minute chance for Napoli should have been a goal but I guess they weren't lucky enough. All in all Liverpool created more chances and deserved a win. My bet size on the draw was $75, and as I lost the bet, my money management plan demanded I increase my bet size to around $100 on a draw Ajax - Bayern (finished 3-3).

My prediction for Ajax Bayern was also a draw. Odds at a local bookie were 3.8 which was fair enough having in mind there was a high chance of draw.
I took this bet, considering that Ajax is in great form at home, while Bayern is still struggling to find consistency as Niko Kovac was rotating the first 11 every now and then and even though Bayern were a favorite the value bet here was a draw. In addition, Ajax coach in one interview said that they were aiming for a good result and would give their 100% to beat Bayern.

The draw gave me a $380 income (odds at a local bookie were 3.8) which gave me ($380 - $50-$75-$100) a $155 profit which increased my initial capital by around 1.5%.

We'll keep you updated.

**hfaruk10** · 12-14-18, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Deenoz

good luck.

Thanks Deenoz.

My bets for the weekend:

Hannover - Bayern 1x ( bet $40 @ 3.9)

Inter Udinese x (if previous bet fails bet $60 @ 5.2)

southampton - arsenal x

liverpool - man utd x

Will see what happens,

**hfaruk10** · 12-15-18, 10:49 AM

So I was a bit gambling with Hannover, I thought that Bayern is too tired after Amsterdam match.

I will be waiting for inter -udinese result.

**hfaruk10** · 12-15-18, 02:00 PM

I lost Inter - Udinese bet, I am continuing with a $85 on a draw on southampton arsenal tomorrow. Two consecutive losses so far.
If I lose the bet I will bet $127.5 on a draw Liverpool - Man utd.

Will see what happens.

**hfaruk10** · 12-16-18, 02:15 PM

Hi all,

Four consecutive losses now.

Will not chase the losses but carefully choose the bets. I will post upcoming bets in day or two.

Regards

**hfaruk10** · 12-16-18, 04:20 PM

My prediction for the next game: draw on Atalanta Lazio (bet size $191.3 for a 147$ profit including previous losses)

Atalanta is a good form, maybe I should have bet on Atalanta win, either way Lazio will face a tough opponent.

See you tomorrow after the game.

**DavidGoliath5003** · 12-17-18, 02:15 AM

Dude, it isnt working.

**hfaruk10** · 12-17-18, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by DavidGoliath5003

Dude, it isnt working

hey David, I appreciate your optimism but I have to lose 15 matches in a row to say that this strategy is not working. At least thats the idea of testing.
Nevertheless you are all welcome to comment on progress so far.
There are many more matches and opportunities to bet on and with only one match I can return all my losses so far (4 consecutive losses) and even earn 2% profit maybe more.

Will see what happens.

**DavidGoliath5003** · 12-17-18, 03:55 PM

It makes zero sense to post on here while this hasnt been tested yet. We post picks on these forums to help each other out. Probe the theory first, if it works then post it. Some noob might be on suicide watch after tailing your plays. I hope you succeed. Good luck