[moses millsap]

It seems like everytime I turn on the TV, the chalk is cruising. How many dogs have won outright in this tourney so far? It has to be something like 90% for favorites (Talking about the 2 way pickem lines, not the 3-ways with the draw option).

[Dark Horse]

Not sure about the Asian handicaps for each game:

Group A:
Ecuador win over Poland

Group B:
Trinidad tie with Sweden

Group D:
Angola tie with Mexico

Group E:
USA tie with Italy

Group F:
Japan tie with Croatia
Australia win over Japan

Group G:
Switzerland tie with France
S. Korea tie with France

[moses millsap]

Not sure about the Asian handicaps for each game:

Group A:
Ecuador win over Poland

Group B:
Trinidad tie with Sweden

Group D:
Angola tie with Mexico

Group E:
USA tie with Italy

Group F:
Japan tie with Croatia
Australia win over Japan

Group G:
Switzerland tie with France
S. Korea tie with France

Australia was the favorite over Japan in that matchup, so from that list, there has only been one dog that has won outright.

Any chance for the Saudis and Tunisia today?

[adriano]

Ghana vs. Czech R. was definitely a dog, though not a very big one.

[moses millsap]

Ghana vs. Czech R. was definitely a dog, though not a very big one.

Oh yeah. I don't follow soccer much, just wondering if this was the trend in soccer (chalk usually winning).

[mad]

SU, heavy chalk a lot of the time. Not so much "parity" as you guys would say, in this sport. No draft scenario, some countries have very well established national leagues, heavy investment in youth etc. Leads to a larger divide between the top and bottom. Hence all the chalk.

PS If you want a dog, have a gander at Ecuador +1 for tommorrow. Not a mortal lock but well worth a shot. If it wasn't for the fact that Germany are the hosts this might have been a SU scenario.

PPS A few $$$$ on the draw would be good too

[McBa1n]

I'm surprised there isn't more action on the World Cup. You generally have to put up a lot to win a little - but it's been 85% or better for HEAVY favorites (if not 100%, depending where you cut that off).

I've been lucky and avoided the upsets so far - but it's key to avoid 'disappointing' teams like Poland, France and maybe even Portugal (they've made sweats out of both their games now).

But in a game like Brazil vs Australia? That's cash money 1 to 4 - but it's still money.
I havn't seen many quality parlay options out there, so it hasn't really made the betting much better or enticing.

With the final game coming up - money making opportunities are going to be tough, because so few teams have MUST wins at this stage. You're usually fine in World Cup Soccer when a team is 2-0 and playing a meaningless game - but I still don't feel good about it.

[moses millsap]

I'm surprised there isn't more action on the World Cup. You generally have to put up a lot to win a little - but it's been 85% or better for HEAVY favorites (if not 100%, depending where you cut that off).

I've tried getting into it, but it just bores the hell out of me and I'm not going to have action on any of the matches if the dogs basically have no chance to win in over 90% of the games. I get uneasy playing chalk around -130.

[bigboydan]

interesting thread guys. i was curious about this one myself.

[BuddyBear]

I was really looking foward to betting the world cup more less for fun. Then when Pinn came out with the lines I realized i had no clue about these teams and then I saw the chalk and the possibility of 3 outcomes.

I said to myself NCAAB isn't that far away

[McBa1n]

Chalk is ususally -200 or better. So I can see why you'd avoid it.:>

France is probably the only team to have that kind of number and choke (I think they were at least that in both of their ties). The rest have paid off.

It is pretty rough to put down 6 units to win 2 - like in say Spain's game today, but you're pretty much money.
Tunisia and Saudi Arabia IMO have the 2 worst teams in the tournament (and it isn't even close). Spain, on the other hand played perfect against Ukraine, who has injuries, but is definitly no slouch.

This game is a horrible mismatch with Spain/Tunisia and you can still find -315 on spain (I should've jumped on them at -270 last night..doh doh). To me, this is a freebie, and one of the few you get during the tourney.

Just looking at WC history, you're almost always going to be betting chalk and having to put up a lot to win a little - but it's fairly easy to figure out which teams to avoid in those situations.

[moses millsap]

I was really looking foward to betting the world cup more less for fun. Then when Pinn came out with the lines I realized i had no clue about these teams and then I saw the chalk and the possibility of 3 outcomes.

You can get some pretty good lines at pickem (a draw = a push) if you scour the shops for the best lines. Like today, SA was +600 at Pinny against Ukraine in the 3 way betting, but was +550 as a pickem at Bodog. (+500 at Pinny)

[moses millsap]

Chalk is ususally -200 or better.

Chalk is just the favorite as long as I've known, whether -115 or -1000. I hear you though on the mismatches; I just don't know enough about soccer. I mean, if Pinny posted a line of Federer -500 against Roddick on clay, I'd bet my entire account on Federer as after capping that fully, I doubt I would give Roddick higher than a 3% of winning that match.

[McBa1n]

Hehe - I was talking about the Cup specifically.
I'm finding the best 'value' bets in the mismatches with quality teams versus garbage teams that seem to have a lot of supporters betting for them.

It's amazing how some teams have no chance and keep the price down on the favorite. England being the lone exception.

It's so hard to cap these games and find edges in value bets, but it is pretty darn easy to pick winners.... But even picking 70-75% winners will keep you close to even at these odds.
I'm just trying to avoid close decisions as much as possible and it's worked well. It ain't easy on my stomach, though. The cream always seems to find a way to rise to the top - even if it is in the 2nd half in injury time - in the world cup.

[Dark Horse]

Tournament doesn't start until the second round. Some of the easier games coming up first. Like Italy versus Czech Republic. Tie.

Holland and Argentina are through, so important to read up on team preparations/squad changes for their upcoming encounter. I'll probably pick the tie here as well.

Ties often have good payouts, because they're unpopular with many bettors.

[moses millsap]

PS If you want a dog, have a gander at Ecuador +1 for tommorrow. Not a mortal lock but well worth a shot. If it wasn't for the fact that Germany are the hosts this might have been a SU scenario.

PPS A few $$$$ on the draw would be good too

I know you recommend +1 or the draw for Ecuador, but that +650 ML looks enticing, lol. Maybe I'll go a sweet 0-20 by the end of this WC.

[moses millsap]

Well, Germany and Poland win as favorites in the early games today.

[mad]

I took a bath there on Ecuador. Never imagined that scoreline. Ecuador played well below my expectations. Sorry mate, if you listened to me.

[moses millsap]

No problem, I only took them small. Looks like they were using this game as nothing more than practice with the lineup they started. Everybody seems to be on England today. Sweden is nearing +300, but only +140 as a pickem.

[mad]

I was thinking about Sweden but they've had a terrible time scoring so far. England have been marginally better but by no means dominant IMO. Sweden for value and/or a draw. Perhaps Sweden +0.5.

[clonecat]

I think England will try to atleast gain a draw in the game as they will not want to face Germany and Sweden will be more than content with a draw to advance to the second round.

My wager is final score 0-0 +4.84

[moses millsap]

I think England will try to atleast gain a draw in the game as they will not want to face Germany and Sweden will be more than content with a draw to advance to the second round.

My wager is final score 0-0 +4.84

Bodog actually has a better price than Pinnacle on this one. They have it at +500 compared to +300 at Cris or +450 at Olympic. You can also hit it twice at Bodog (though their max is $300) Because they have the final score prop and also another prop of who scores first goal with "No goals" as an option as well.

[adriano]

I think England will try to atleast gain a draw in the game as they will not want to face Germany and Sweden will be more than content with a draw to advance to the second round.

My wager is final score 0-0 +4.84

0-0, this is the play for this game. I'm taking just the draw though.

[Baphomet]

Germany vs Sweden
England vs Ecuador for the second phase.
Cool! Germany and England to win.

[Dark Horse]

England has one objective:
- win the group and avoid Germany.

Sweden has two objectives:
- qualifiy for next round.
- win the group and avoid Germany.

Sweden's first focus is on keeping a clean sheet. England doesn't need to win. Sweden without Ibrahimovic. My guess is Sweden will try to go for the early lead, but if the game remains a tie, the second half will see both team avoiding risk (also depending on the other game).

So, instead of taking the under for the full game, I'm waiting for halftime to take the 2H under; unless Sweden is behind at the half.

[adriano]

Yes DarkHorse, i think this is the surest play of all possible. The best possible scenario for the 0-0 was if Germany had finished second, it would have been a game noone would want to score and watch.

[Dark Horse]

I edited my post. Changed under to 2H under to make it even more 'sure'. lol.

[moses millsap]

Will the next round of games no longer have draw as an option? (Isn't it single elimination next round?)

Good luck on Sweden/England guys. I think I'm passing.

[adriano]

There will be prices for eliminating opponent.

But it will have a draw as an option in regular time. If the score is even then there is extra time 2 by 15 mins. Then penalty kicks if still tied.

[moses millsap]

There will be prices for eliminating opponent.

But it will have a draw as an option in regular time. If the score is even then there is extra time 2 by 15 mins. Then penalty kicks if still tied.

Ugh, I hate penalty kicks. I like the sudden death/golden goal rule much better, much more tense.

[Baphomet]

Penalty kicks are tense enough, but not as fair as winning during the extra time.

[moses millsap]

Sweden ties it! What a crazy game. 4 goals, everybody was expecting 2 max.

[Baphomet]

Portugal did great too!