Ole Miss By Damn! (Picks Thread)

[olemissbydamn]

I had the thread "Why Shouldn't I" but it starts out off topic and I want a clean thread where I can keep my own record and kind of compete against myself and get thoughts and opinions on my picks as well. I'm not going to take the bets I made from that thread and carry it into a new thread here mostly because I just cashed out so I'm starting fresh with my bankroll anyway so why not my picking record?

7/2/13

Spain (U20) -263 ML vs. Mexico

Greece DNB -155 vs. Uzbekistan

Parlay (2 teams): Spain -263 && Greece +106 (ML's)

BOL!

[olemissbydamn]

Well Greece was a major disappointment and we got lucky with Spain, but that's how it goes sometimes. For the next batch of games I'm going to go with: France -102 ML and Nigeria +145 ML Beingthe host is probably the one thing that boosted the Turks past a mediocre Australia, but France is too good to let that happen to them. I think Uruguay is overrated and Nigeria has looked like one of the better teams in the tournament so I am willing to go with them. Right now my record is 1 - 2, with one of those two being a parlay so I'm not sure if that is usually counted or not. Let's get these though then look at some Brazilian league games later.

[olemissbydamn]

France and Nigeria had opposite performances, one dominated, one did not, went 1-1 there.

Overall Record: 2-3

Looking over towards Copa De Brazil, I think there is some value in Salgueiros +243 (They should not be this big of an underdog, what's the deal Brazilian soccer fans???)

Looking at Brazil Serie B, liking Bragantino SP -148, and kind of liking Paysandu PA -140

Thoughts on these? Not going to fire them in for about an hour or two to get some opinions

[olemissbydamn]

Well thanks for all the valuable advice! Haha, just kidding, gonna just stick my guns here.

Salgueiro PE +243 ML starting in about 30 minutes -- Based off of that one I'll make some plays on the other two I mentioned.

[olemissbydamn]

Well thanks for all the valuable advice! Haha, just kidding, gonna just stick my guns here.

Salgueiro PE +243 ML starting in about 30 minutes -- Based off of that one I'll make some plays on the other two I mentioned.

Unfortunately they were only able to tie at 0-0, so I lost that one. So instead of jumping on the two late games I decided just to go with SC Paysandu Para before I went to workout. Looks like I should of just taken the over as it is 3-2 already in the first half, but luckily Paysandu is on top at 3-2. Hopefully that result can hold up for me.

Overall Record 2-4

[olemissbydamn]

Unfortunately they were only able to tie at 0-0, so I lost that one. So instead of jumping on the two late games I decided just to go with SC Paysandu Para before I went to workout. Looks like I should of just taken the over as it is 3-2 already in the first half, but luckily Paysandu is on top at 3-2. Hopefully that result can hold up for me.

Overall Record 2-4

Finally hit some paydirt with these Brazilians, Paysandu wins a shootout 4-3.

Overall Record: 3-4

Got a great U20 card for tomorrow, I'll be back on with some picks.

EDIT: Gonna throw in Japan J2: Yamagata vs Gainare Tottori o2.5 -127

Might as well throw that one on the block while I'm sleeping

[olemissbydamn]

Cashing a bet while sleeping is an awesome feeling.

Overall Record: 4-4

My two early picks for the U20 games are: Chile +129 ML and Portugal/Ghana o2.5 -145

Already have Colombia at -171 ML for later on too, don't know what I'll do for Iraq/Paraguay yet.

BOL

[olemissbydamn]

Cashing a bet while sleeping is an awesome feeling.

Overall Record: 4-4

My two early picks for the U20 games are: Chile +129 ML and Portugal/Ghana o2.5 -145

Already have Colombia at -171 ML for later on too, don't know what I'll do for Iraq/Paraguay yet.

BOL

CASHED on both of these gems.

Overall Record: 6-4

Already had Colombia locked in, ill come back with a pick for the Iraq / Paraguay game. EDIT: Back, going to take Iraq as I see them as a undervalued at +210 ML, also fired one in for Linfield BF +133 ML. Bol!

[olemissbydamn]

Colombia concedes an early goal that's no good but it will be interesting to see how the play down as opposed to up. Also added to my card for today is Seattle Sounders -1 -123 vs. DC United

[YBthebest]

Brilliant Colombia...really? Mexico-Spain all over again.

[olemissbydamn]

Well the two U20 games did not treat me very well, but happy that Linfield paid off.

Overall Record: 7-6

In addition to the Sounders -1, I'm adding Real Salt Lake/Philadelphia Union o2.5

May add Vancouver +424 ML in a bit, going to get ExeRok's opinion he seems to be our resident MLS expert

[olemissbydamn]

Cash em'

Gotta thank exerok he's the MLS specialist and gave me confidence in those picks.

Overall: 9-6

May have something tomorrow may not. Just got to the beach.

[olemissbydamn]

Rolling with Colorado rapids/nyrb o2.5 -109 and la galaxy -1 -109 so far. Oh and also o64.5 in the Nathan's hotdog eating challenge ha. Bol

[olemissbydamn]

Cashed on the hot dog challenge Joey chestnut is a monster.

Overall Record: 10-6

[olemissbydamn]

Had a push and a loss in MLS won two baseball bets but won't include them in my record since I didn't post.

Overall Record: 10-7-1 (w-l-d)

So far on my card today I've got Limerick +110 at bohemians, will add more later

[olemissbydamn]

Cashed.

Overall Record: 11-7-1 (w-l-d)

[olemissbydamn]

Throwing a unit on the o2.5 in the Spain/Uruguay game. Could really go either way but I think Spain wakes up and tries to make a statement but Uruguay gets one in the process as they are no slouch themselves.

Edit: not looking good here, wasn't that confident in this pick since I'm out of town research has been lacking. Hoping for a better second half!

[olemissbydamn]

Adding New England Revolution -125 ML. New England is historically not great against San Jose but have played well in their recent games while San Jose has not. New England isn't fantastic at home but is still looking much better than San Jose's road record of 1-2-7. Bol.

[Jaszaafca]

Adding New England Revolution -125 ML. New England is historically not great against San Jose but have played well in their recent games while San Jose has not. New England isn't fantastic at home but is still looking much better than San Jose's road record of 1-2-7. Bol.

Also Wondo is not playing I think?

[olemissbydamn]

For the record I did put a unit on under 2.5 for this Philadelphia Houston game. Will count it in my record I was at dinner so couldn't post it. If it hits, which it looks like it will, and anyone wants proof or whatever at some point just pm me. No fraud here

[olemissbydamn]

Hit on both MLS games so
Far tonight so I've been happy about that. This last one was one that I really couldn't decide what to go with but looking at it I think Vancouver could pull this one out. Taking Vancouver +150 ML.


13-8-1 (w-l-d)

[olemissbydamn]

Taking Vancouver +150 ML.

Cashed.

Overall Record: 14-8-1 (w-l-d) where draw = push

[olemissbydamn]

Going with my gut and taking South Korea +146 tomorrow against Iraq. Clock strikes midnight for the resilient Iraq squad. However it's notable my gut < research. Bol.

[frugalgambler]

I have the same feeling. Koreans rebounded nicely from that last minute heartbreaker. My picks are Korea pk and under 2.5 and for the 2nd quarterfinal Ghana pk and over 2.5. No idea why Ghana is not a favorite there.

[olemissbydamn]

I need to look at that Ghana game more but chile is a pretty good side that hasn't been playing to their potential though I agree the value lies with Ghana in that one.

[olemissbydamn]

Damn draws. Gonna go with the dog and take Ghana but I'm on the road so another hunch no research

[olemissbydamn]

Well who saw two of these damn draws today? I sure didn't, lost both. Not happy about it. Taking Martinique +1 against Canada Gold Cup Quallys, will come back with some MLS picks soon.

Overall Record: 14-10-1 (w-l-d) draw=push

EDIT: Also adding Portland Timbers +166

Depending on how these go will determine my other plays for the night. If I lose these (all 4 bets today) I'll probably just take a break until tomorrow. Still can't believe two draws from the U20 games, but hell, it happens. Always room to bounce back.

[olemissbydamn]

Cashed Martinique, lost Portland -- I'll take it after the start to this day

Overall Record: 15-11-1 (w-l-d) draw=push

Going to get in on Mexico -1 @ -105. This game could really go either way but even with the B team and the struggling Mexican side as of late this is essentially a home game from them and I think they could come out and make a statement here. The beginning of the game means EVERYTHING. Bol.

[olemissbydamn]

Well if the game goes off of what I said it doesn't look good for me, Mexico gives up an early one via penalty.

[olemissbydamn]

Galaxy/FC Dallas u2.5 EV

Hindsight is 20/20, but I was so torn between El Tri and the Panama side, just leaned the wrong way. It's been a horrible day for me, but you can't have a winning record everyday.

[olemissbydamn]

Galaxy/FC Dallas u2.5 EV

Hindsight is 20/20, but I was so torn between El Tri and the Panama side, just leaned the wrong way. It's been a horrible day for me, but you can't have a winning record everyday.

Cashed. Great end to an otherwise pretty bad day of capping for me. We all have the ups and downs.

Overall Record: 16-12-1 (w-l-d) draw = push

[olemissbydamn]

Going to start the day off with Alloa Athletic -109 ML vs. Airdrie United BOL

[frugalgambler]

Hey man. If you want to do proper bookkeeping, you should also record total units won and units staked.

[olemissbydamn]

I pretty much do the same bet on every game, 1unit = $100

I can start keeping track if you want to though

Alloa and Airdrie tied 2-2 at H/T, both teams look fairly sloppy, going to be who can steal a late goal IMO, we'll see how it goes.

[olemissbydamn]

I pretty much do the same bet on every game, 1unit = $100

I can start keeping track if you want to though

Alloa and Airdrie tied 2-2 at H/T, both teams look fairly sloppy, going to be who can steal a late goal IMO, we'll see how it goes.

Cashed. Was spot on with that, Alloa gets one in the 71st and holds on for the win.

Overall Record: 17-12-1 (w-l-d) draw = push

I'm going to look at these GC Quallys and come back with some picks in a bit.