Everyone wants to rant and rave about fixed matches on here, but they missed this one

[AussiePunter123]

Some heavy line movement in favour of The Strongest against Velez Sarsfield due to start tomorrow.

Definitely looks worthy.

[edabramov]

Some heavy line movement in favour of The Strongest against Velez Sarsfield due to start tomorrow.

Definitely looks worthy.

I'm fancying The Strongest handicap, Bolivian team playing in high altitude.. it works to their advantage a lot.

[AussiePunter123]

Agree. You think it is fixed?

[edabramov]

Agree. You think it is fixed?

Doubt it.

[whareouttogetme]

Some heavy line movement in favour of The Strongest against Velez Sarsfield due to start tomorrow.

Definitely looks worthy.

I'm leaving this one, Velez are a solid team.

Plus I've fallen for the "altitude" thing before

[whareouttogetme]

Tours 1-0 30 seconds into the 2nd half...

Had a feeling it was coming, Angers' goalie is one of the worst I've ever seen

[AussiePunter123]

Perhaps trying to recover losses by going for over?

[edabramov]

I'm leaving this one, Velez are a solid team.

Plus I've fallen for the "altitude" thing before

Away form is shaky, they're decent but the Strongest shows up at home..

Maybe an under,.. I don't know I'ma look into it not necessarily bet it.

Before I bet on the Stongest -1 and got a push, and before that Boliviar PK vs Leon and got a push...

we'll see.

[Robin Van Rogan]

And of course everything hits, except my biggest bets...

If the O2.5 hits I'll be happy, but only 5 minutes left.

[Robin Van Rogan]

Tours V Angers over 2.5 @ 2.100 on 5 Dimes right now.
3 units on it.

5 units on BTTS @1.78 (5 Dimes doesn't offer this line and this is the only price I could find on my other bookie)

Ouch.

At least Trakai and Veria won their matches, so I didn't lose all that much, but still...

[Vaughany]

Agree. You think it is fixed?

Lol i think u boys are getting a bit carried away with the whole fixing thing!

[addictedto]

Sigma U21
Slovacko U21
Trakai
Veria
Michon (tennis)
Gombos (tennis)

I see 6 clear winners here because of the team effort and one game lost with odds 20-30.
Tours was definitely dodgy, not to mention Angers missed a 100% chance in 40th minute when their nr. 9 was one on one with the keeper. Tours scored 2 in 2nd half so it wasn't so far from happening.

I am sure we will get them next time.

[onemoregoal]

Perhaps trying to recover losses by going for over?

yeah, this rarely works.

[pellumb341]

Lol i think u boys are getting a bit carried away with the whole fixing thing!

hah I agree.

The Strongest - Velez , Velez will field B team and that is the reason of heavy movement.

Like i said before bookies have no good info on small leagues and they offer wrong odds.
Take a look at Lithuania A Lyga match "Ekranas - Kruoja"...Ekranas is simply awful,they have a very weak team with 20-years old players and they are one of relegation candidates (i read this on a forum and it was written by a lithuanian who of course know what's going with lithuanian teams).What happened ? Marathonbet opened Kruoja @ 11 , then it got hammered by lithuanian punters and Kruoja -0,5 dropped to 2,30...Kruoja won 2-1 , but it had nothing to do with fixing.Bookies (marathonbet) had no clue what they were doing..

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/lithuania/a-lyga-2014/ekranas-kruoja-htGIz2H9/

[whareouttogetme]

hah I agree.

The Strongest - Velez , Velez will field B team and that is the reason of heavy movement.

Like i said before bookies have no good info on small leagues and they offer wrong odds.
Take a look at Lithuania A Lyga match "Ekranas - Kruoja"...Ekranas is simply awful,they have a very weak team with 20-years old players and they are one of relegation candidates (i read this on a forum and it was written by a lithuanian who of course know what's going with lithuanian teams).What happened ? Marathonbet opened Kruoja @ 11 , then it got hammered by lithuanian punters and Kruoja -0,5 dropped to 2,30...Kruoja won 2-1 , but it had nothing to do with fixing.Bookies (marathonbet) had no clue what they were doing..

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/lit...uoja-htGIz2H9/

Yeah that's possible for wins, but how about things like HT/FT (like the Japanese game the other day)?

[AussiePunter123]

We should keep this thread alive even if it helps us find wrong odds and the odd fixed game. Outside of the french game we cleaned up tonight.

[AussiePunter123]

Some strong money coming in for Lakhwiya.

[hurricane1091]

Can we talk about Arsenal vs Bayern tomorrow?


Total over 3? Arsenal over .5? Any value is Arsenal advancing +2600? They are down 2-0, but I expect goals to happen tomorrow. Arsenal is either going to shock or Bayern flex there muscles. Let's talk!

[Gaze73]

I like Deportes Tolima, odds dropping on ML and ht/ft.

[OGUCCI-SBR]

Liefering vs Parndorf
Austrian Bundesliga-2 playing in a few 4-5 hours.

Odds relatively heavily dropping on the away team Parndorf. Every aspect, FT win, HT dnb, DNB, +0.5 double chance etc.

In three hours time Pinnacle dropped their +0.5 Parndorf from 2,19 to 1,82 which is really a huge drop for this kind of bet.

Few hours ago 1x2 FT win on AWAY team was 4,2 to 4,9 all around the market, now it's 3.3 3.5 3.6

Might keep an eye on this one. Since it's today and not too long away.

Double chance on Parndorf might be something worth looking for.

[AussiePunter123]

Good money coming in for Pachuca against Monterrey --> $2.11 into $1.85

The Strongest were well backed in against Velez Sarsfield, that game is coming up tomorrow.

Lakhwiya have been well backed into 1.67 against Tractor coming up in the next day.

Cartagines have been backed in from 2.97 to 2.51 to become favourites against Carmelita in the Primeria Division in Costa Rica.

Some interesting line movements here. Lets watch these games in the next day or two.

[addictedto]

Nice find with Parndorf, think there is enough time till KO for prices to drop even more and tip us of the outcome. If you wanna take it now, Marathon has Double chance X2 @1.90. I'll keep following this game.

[sergiudec]

Great job last night, 5 out of 6 nailed. Guys I suggest we keep an eye on the Kazan tennis challenger, they already produced 2 winners for us I don't see it stopping at that. Games start in 15 hours.

[mishel2512]

Great job last night, 5 out of 6 nailed. Guys I suggest we keep an eye on the Kazan tennis challenger, they already produced 2 winners for us I don't see it stopping at that. Games start in 15 hours.

Looking forward to it..What match do you have in mind?

[Semper Fidelis]

This is very intriguing gentlemen. What exactly are the parameters we are looking for? Pretty much significant line movement in known fixed leagues? How do we tell if the line movement is because of a fix or just one particular team/player being continually pounded by the public? And what to do with the crazy line movement where the odds rise then drop dramatically, or vice versa? I've seen that many times, especially in Challengers matches for tennis.

[whareouttogetme]

This is very intriguing gentlemen. What exactly are the parameters we are looking for? Pretty much significant line movement in known fixed leagues? How do we tell if the line movement is because of a fix or just one particular team/player being continually pounded by the public? And what to do with the crazy line movement where the odds rise then drop dramatically, or vice versa? I've seen that many times, especially in Challengers matches for tennis.

You can check Betfair to see amount wagered

In any major leagues, a line change will most likely be due to the public pounding a market, but if a low league has a few hundred dollars on every game, and then one has 10k+ wagered on it, it looks a bit dodgy

[Pelegbar]

Can someone please give me a link of this Betfair market to see the amounts wagered on a match? Searched and can't seem to find it

[whareouttogetme]

Can someone please give me a link of this Betfair market to see the amounts wagered on a match? Searched and can't seem to find it

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/

Click "View full market" to see amount wagered on each result

[mishel2512]

And how do you exactly look at this odds? I never watched this so i really don't know
I see for example this match: http://www.betfair.com/exchange/foot...13097447&exp=e
And i have 1 x or 2, and odds for that in squares right? And how many people invested for that odd?
Thanks

[whareouttogetme]

And how do you exactly look at this odds? I never watched this so i really don't know
I see for example this match: http://www.betfair.com/exchange/foot...13097447&exp=e
And i have 1 x or 2, and odds for that in squares right? And how many people invested for that odd?
Thanks

Back = betting on that result (i.e. Bristol to win)
Lay = bet against it (i.e. Dagenham to win/draw)

and yeah it shows how much money was wagered on each result and at what odds

[mishel2512]

So in my case i'm looking at blue and red square only? And people wagered 433$ for Bristol to win, and others wagered 160 for Dagenham to win/draw that is double chance like x2?
And i need to look here in those squares if maybe suddenly 5.000$ was wagered to one team, and on another only 200-300$-and that is fishy?
Sorry for asking such questions, but i really want to learn this

[sergiudec]

So in my case i'm looking at blue and red square only? And people wagered 433$ for Bristol to win, and others wagered 160 for Dagenham to win/draw that is double chance like x2?
And i need to look here in those squares if maybe suddenly 5.000$ was wagered to one team, and on another only 200-300$-and that is fishy?
Sorry for asking such questions, but i really want to learn this

Betfair is not the only place where smart/obscure money come in on a play. There's tons of other bookies, and it's not easy for us to track smart money. What is certain is that on Betfair we can see how the market reacts on smart money moves. But, there is a very very fine line between finding value and going with the public. public bets can also cause markets to go ballistic. Difference is, smart moves bring cash, public moves take cash away.

[mishel2512]

What is exactly smart move?

[OGUCCI-SBR]

Liefering vs Parndorf

Odds are almost back to normal now.
Wondering if the bookies don't want to expose it or... there really isn't anything fishy about that game.

[mishel2512]

Any new matches?