Swing States Trends 11/1/24

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  • WillyBoy
    SBR MVP
    • 06-19-18
    • 1988

    #1
    Swing States Trends 11/1/24
    A crusher of a week for Harris has her now losing NV as well as PA, which has Trump sitting comfortably on the plus side of the EC. That said, looking at the numbers below, my FAKE polls puts the race at too-close-to-call, while I’m sure, the Nobody’s-Ever-Heard-Of polls have Trump winning by a landslide – so we’ll just have to wait. I’ll post the final polling results of my first-ever averaged polls aggregation on Monday.

  • WillyBoy
    SBR MVP
    • 06-19-18
    • 1988

    #2
    Although not included in my crew of pollsters because they don’t post their results often enough, the Selzer Poll has posted its latest results in the Des Moines Register – and it has Harris winning Iowa by 3% !!!! Iowa?!!! By 3 percentage points?!!! Are you kidding me?!!!
    I suppose if you think all polls are fake anyway it won’t bother you, but the Selzer Poll is regarded as the national polling standard for accuracy (Google it), and if Harris is ahead in Iowa (a Red state, and the Register a right-leaning newspaper), how far is she really behind in Ohio and the rest of the Midwest?
    For now, I’m sticking to my nowcast of a Trump EC win, but the ‘herding’ tendency of many of my pollsters could flip the last page of the election script.
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