In KY we seem to flip flop back n forth with Dem or Repub SOS's, kinda like with we do with Governors.
But with all of the "stolen" election chatter I figured I'd point out how puzzling KY numbers have been over past 4 or so Pres. elections, especially the 2020.
First off I'll start with our current KY SOS, Michael Adams. He ran on a platform of cleaning up the voter rolls. The previous ones all said the same. But, Adams said he was "for real.." going to purge and clean up the rolls.
Real quick -if anyone is not familiar with Adams, just think of a Lindsey Graham type of character.
So, for years KY always has more registered Dems vs Repubs, and by a decent margin. Independents make up the largest of the "other" voters. "Other" voters is new to me. When I registered about 30 yrs ago I'm pretty sure the options were Dem, Repub and Independent.
But now it states : "If you check “Other”, please type in the name of your chosen entity. You may choose, Constitution, Green, Libertarian, Reform, Socialist Workers, independent status, or something else of your choice."
Again, most are just plain ole Independents. And time after time, year after year polling will show that Independents largely lean Dem.
Ok. So to give a little context about the reasoning why KY always has more people registered as Dem vs Repub.
There are a few different long-standing narratives.
One, is that there are just a lot of dead people on the rolls, and apparently they are mainly registered as Dem. What luck, right?
Second, is that there are a lot of people registered as Dem, but actually are Republicans in disguise, or that they vote Repub. Weird, right?
The logic behind this narrative is that people like to be able to sway local, county and state primaries. Meaning that a registered Dem(that's actually a Repub) will vote in primaries for the Dem candidate they feel is less likely to win against the Republican candidate. Hoping for an easier victory by the Repub.
Because in KY, primaries are closed, but general elections are open - meaning you can cross party lines and/or vote for whoever in General elections regardless of one's party registration, but not in primaries.
People registered as "Other" and have chosen an affiliation like Libertarian, Green, or Reform etc., could only vote in a primary if there were 2 or more candidates for Libertarian, Green or Reform etc. At least that's how I've understood it. Over the years I've still showed up at a precinct to try and vote even though I'm a Independent and know that there wouldn't be 2 Independents on the primary ballot, and as expected, I always get turned away.
Now what's funny about this logic, is that the same could go for actual Dems. Meaning that real Dems could just register as Repubs and try and sway their primary, and hope to push lesser qualified candidate to victory, thinking their Dem candidate of choice will automatically win their primary and that they will get an easier opponent for them.
It's all silly. But these stories have been repeated for years, trying to explain why more Dems are registered in the state vs Repubs.
So, a third narrative is similar to the logic or reasoning of the second one. The narrative is that there are more Dems registered because people are old and used to be a Dem but have switched over the years and never felt like changing affiliation.
This one is also funny for a few reasons. One, is that they(current and past SOS's, and current and past various state officials) have said there are numerous dead, or alleged to be dead, people on the rolls. And yet, if they are or were old dead people AND they were registered Dem yet voted Repub that wouldn't make sense with the numbers.
Other reason that narrative is funny, or baffling, is because across the web for years there has been never-ending arguments about the "myth" or whether the Southern Strategy is or was real. People will argue that no Southern Dem from the civil rights era of the 60's ever switched part affiliation to the Republican party. That may be true for US Reps or US Senators. Old Southern Dem US Reps or Senators may of just died, retired, or got primaried by new-school Southern Dems.
I know in KY(even though it's debated whether KY is in the "South" or not) that one deceased former State Senator - Gene Snyder- the outer interstate loop(I-265) around Louisville is named after him - was a Dem when he was an attorney and a local councilman in the 60's, but switched to Repub when he became a State Rep and State Senator.
So that's just one example of politicians that changed affiliation.
But this idea, or narrative, that we have a "possibly" large group of older voters from the 60's(or even earlier) that were Dems, and are still registered Dems, and are alive AND actually vote for Repubs, doesn't jive neither.
Ok, so for the 2019 race for SOS of KY it was considered that it'd be highly contested.
The Dems front runner Heather French-Henry was a former 2nd lady of Ky. She's married to a former Lieutenant Governor, and she does a lot of work with Veterans. And was a former Miss Ky winner.
The Repubs front runner was Michael Adams.
[Now let's not forget the narratives I've pointed out earlier.]
At the time there's around 3.3 million registered voters in the State.
If one of the ongoing narratives in the State is that there are people registered as Dems, but are really Repubs, and that they like to try and sway primaries(which are closed primaries) by voting for the lesser candidate, hoping they win and that their preferred Repub candidate will have an easier victory. Then why did HFH absolutely destroy her other Dem challengers in the primary? And the alleged front-runner for the Repubs had a closer primary race.
But also, why such a low turnout for Repub voters and a HUGE turnout for Dems in the primaries?
2019 KY primary for SOS
Dems:
Heather French-Henry 263,419 - Belcher 47,923 - Griffin 47,655 - Sebesta 12,088
Repubs:
M. Adams 94,404 - A. English 62,677 - Knipper 41,367 - Nett 30,340
Now, when the 2019 General election came around - magically a crap-ton of Repub voters turned out. But overall turnout still wasn't half of registered voters. Yet this was considered a highly contested race.
M. Adams(R) 746,629 - Heather French-Henry(D) 682,096
Moving on to the 2020 Presidential race. But first.
In an article by the Courier-Journal, also posted on the new SOS's gov page, in Feb 2020 the number of registered voters was 3,462,152 - more on these totals in a minute.
1,678,538 Dem or 48%
1,472,985 Repub or 43%
and "other" constituted 9%, but didn't give or list an exact number.
2020 President election for Ky.
Dems: 1,672,473 registered - 992,639 voted - 59.4% turnout.
Repubs 1,568,842 registered - 1,010,845 voted - 64.4% turnout.
Others 324,391 registered - 145,962 voted - 45% turnout.
Now, just because someone is registered a party affiliation, doesn't mean they vote that way. And apparently that's the ongoing narrative for years in Ky.
Results:
Trump 1,326,646 - 62.1%
Biden 772,474 - 36.2%
So even if Trump got all 100% of the registered Repubs that turned out to vote - 1,010,845 - AND got 100% of all the "other" registered voters(don't forget most are Independents that historically lean Dem) that turned out to vote - 145,962 - if add those together it's 1,156,807 - still wouldn't equal the total stated for Trump of 1,326,646 - would still need to get(syphon off) about 170 thousand or so of the Dems voter turnout of 992,639 votes.
Another thing about previous Presidential elections in Ky is that the differential for margin of victory had just kept growing for Repubs since '08 election, despite Ky always having more registered Dems in the State vs Repubs.
2008 R+16
2012 R+23
2016 R+31
But yet with the new SOS from 2019 election and him(Adams) saying he would be the person to finally "clean up the voter rolls..", plus a campaign to get more people registered to vote, the gap of registered Dems vs Repubs narrowed a tad in just one year.
But, back to those old narratives about there are just old and/or dead Dem voters on the rolls, or whatever numerous other reasons SOS's and state officials have given over the years to justify as to why we constantly have more people registered Dem in the State, yet for 25-30 years most Presidential and US Senate races in the state have been won by Repubs - the 2020 President differential election results slid back down to about R+18
Another couple figures from the 2020 Presidential election results breakdown.
Ky has way more Repub state senators vs Dem. Most Dem state senators are from Louisville and there is one for the north/northeast side of Lexington. But, there are 2 senate districts that have Dem state senators, yet went overwhelmingly for Trump, both times, and for other Repub presidents in previous elections.
District 10 - has a Dem state senator - this area is centered around Ashland on the W.V. border.
2020 - presidential election results
Dem - 44,990 registered - 24,280 voted - 54% turnout
Repub - 43,837 registered - 25,429 voted - 58% turnout
Other - 11,795 registered - 4,596 voted - 39% turnout
District 18 - is basically Hardin County - which is E-Town and Ft Knox - and has a Dem state senator.
2020 Pres election results
Dem - 44,578 registered - 23,905 voted - 53.6% turnout
Repub - 39,639 registered - 24,908 voted - 62.8% turnout
Other - 8,051 registered - 3,241 voted - 40.3% turnout
Again, it's very strange that districts that can have Dem senators have such a lower Dem and "Other" voter turnout percentage wise vs Repubs. Also considering that "others" are generally Independents and they historically lean Dem.
And the results are like this for most all counties. Not just for the 2020 Pres. election, but for previous Pres. elections as well. Plus for previous US senate or US rep elections too.
Even the districts that do have more Repubs registered vs Dems, the numbers can be lopsided even more on the voter turnout percentage.
Now some really funny numbers. The percentage of "eligible" voters registered is around 79.57%
In July 2021, the SOS office released this statement:
["Secretary of State Michael Adams announced that, after two months of small increases in Kentucky’s voter registration, the numbers again have declined. While 5,465 new registrations were logged, 5,880 registrations were canceled – 4,000 deceased voters, 1,236 voters who moved out of state, 374 felony convicts, 249 judged mentally incompetent, and 21 voters who voluntarily de-registered.
“While I’m proud of our diligence in cleaning up our voter rolls, I’m concerned about the drop in new registrations,” Adams said. “Registering to vote has never been easier: you can register online at our website, sos.ky.gov.”
Democratic registrants represent 46.3 percent of the electorate with 1,649,790 registered voters. Democratic registration dropped by 2,279 since May 31, a 0.14 percent decrease. Republican registrants total 1,576,259, or 44.2 percent of voters. Republicans saw an increase of 1,010 registered voters, a rise of 0.06 percent from May 31. In addition, 9.4 percent of voters, 333,912, are listed under other affiliations, which saw an increase of 854 registrants since May 31, a 0.26 percent climb."]
Dem - 1,649,790
Repub - 1,576,259
Other - 333,912
= total 3,559,961
Now the 2020 census gives Ky a population of 4,505,836, and says that 77.3% of the population is 18 and over, or roughly 3,483,011
Wait, what? Even with "cleaning up the voter rolls", AND with convicted felons(past and present) and people judged mentally incompetent, plus any other exemptions deducted off the rolls - Ky has MORE registered voters than what the Census claims should be plausible based on 18 and over statistics?
The August 2021 numbers changed as well.
Dem - 1,642,726
Repub - 1,577,955
For whatever reason, this time they broke down the "others."
Other - 185,760(this was everyone not an Independent or Libertarian, ex: Whig, Green, Reform, Constitution, Socialist, etc.)
Independent - 132,039(out of all 3rd parties, Independent still the biggest)
Libertarian - 14,454
= 3,552,934
still higher than what the 2020 census says the number of people 18 or older are in the state.
Plus I haven't mentioned about how different small-time freelance type journalists, and some from the bigger newspapers, have done stories in the past about how varied the type of voting machines are throughout the state.
I don't know if they finally are all the same manufacturer. I think they used to have various manufacturers. But, even if they are all from the same manufacture. They're not all the same models.
It's been pointed out from journalists how only the bigger precincts and populated cites have paper trail machines, and how the poorer counties, especially in the Appalachian area don't have paper trail machines, and the voter turnout for registered Dems and "others" in those counties are abnormally shewed vs the Repub turnout.
So in summary.
Either Ky really does still have a bunch of dead people on the voter rolls. And possibly people that have moved. And they're mostly all registered Dem for some reason.
And/or there are numerous people registered as Dem, or Independent, but vote Repub.
And there is constantly a lower turnout amongst Dem and "other" registered voters compared to registered Repub voters.
And, there is allegedly somehow more people registered to vote in the state vs what the 2020 census states is plausible.
But with all of the "stolen" election chatter I figured I'd point out how puzzling KY numbers have been over past 4 or so Pres. elections, especially the 2020.
First off I'll start with our current KY SOS, Michael Adams. He ran on a platform of cleaning up the voter rolls. The previous ones all said the same. But, Adams said he was "for real.." going to purge and clean up the rolls.
Real quick -if anyone is not familiar with Adams, just think of a Lindsey Graham type of character.
So, for years KY always has more registered Dems vs Repubs, and by a decent margin. Independents make up the largest of the "other" voters. "Other" voters is new to me. When I registered about 30 yrs ago I'm pretty sure the options were Dem, Repub and Independent.
But now it states : "If you check “Other”, please type in the name of your chosen entity. You may choose, Constitution, Green, Libertarian, Reform, Socialist Workers, independent status, or something else of your choice."
Again, most are just plain ole Independents. And time after time, year after year polling will show that Independents largely lean Dem.
Ok. So to give a little context about the reasoning why KY always has more people registered as Dem vs Repub.
There are a few different long-standing narratives.
One, is that there are just a lot of dead people on the rolls, and apparently they are mainly registered as Dem. What luck, right?
Second, is that there are a lot of people registered as Dem, but actually are Republicans in disguise, or that they vote Repub. Weird, right?
The logic behind this narrative is that people like to be able to sway local, county and state primaries. Meaning that a registered Dem(that's actually a Repub) will vote in primaries for the Dem candidate they feel is less likely to win against the Republican candidate. Hoping for an easier victory by the Repub.
Because in KY, primaries are closed, but general elections are open - meaning you can cross party lines and/or vote for whoever in General elections regardless of one's party registration, but not in primaries.
People registered as "Other" and have chosen an affiliation like Libertarian, Green, or Reform etc., could only vote in a primary if there were 2 or more candidates for Libertarian, Green or Reform etc. At least that's how I've understood it. Over the years I've still showed up at a precinct to try and vote even though I'm a Independent and know that there wouldn't be 2 Independents on the primary ballot, and as expected, I always get turned away.
Now what's funny about this logic, is that the same could go for actual Dems. Meaning that real Dems could just register as Repubs and try and sway their primary, and hope to push lesser qualified candidate to victory, thinking their Dem candidate of choice will automatically win their primary and that they will get an easier opponent for them.
It's all silly. But these stories have been repeated for years, trying to explain why more Dems are registered in the state vs Repubs.
So, a third narrative is similar to the logic or reasoning of the second one. The narrative is that there are more Dems registered because people are old and used to be a Dem but have switched over the years and never felt like changing affiliation.
This one is also funny for a few reasons. One, is that they(current and past SOS's, and current and past various state officials) have said there are numerous dead, or alleged to be dead, people on the rolls. And yet, if they are or were old dead people AND they were registered Dem yet voted Repub that wouldn't make sense with the numbers.
Other reason that narrative is funny, or baffling, is because across the web for years there has been never-ending arguments about the "myth" or whether the Southern Strategy is or was real. People will argue that no Southern Dem from the civil rights era of the 60's ever switched part affiliation to the Republican party. That may be true for US Reps or US Senators. Old Southern Dem US Reps or Senators may of just died, retired, or got primaried by new-school Southern Dems.
I know in KY(even though it's debated whether KY is in the "South" or not) that one deceased former State Senator - Gene Snyder- the outer interstate loop(I-265) around Louisville is named after him - was a Dem when he was an attorney and a local councilman in the 60's, but switched to Repub when he became a State Rep and State Senator.
So that's just one example of politicians that changed affiliation.
But this idea, or narrative, that we have a "possibly" large group of older voters from the 60's(or even earlier) that were Dems, and are still registered Dems, and are alive AND actually vote for Repubs, doesn't jive neither.
Ok, so for the 2019 race for SOS of KY it was considered that it'd be highly contested.
The Dems front runner Heather French-Henry was a former 2nd lady of Ky. She's married to a former Lieutenant Governor, and she does a lot of work with Veterans. And was a former Miss Ky winner.
The Repubs front runner was Michael Adams.
[Now let's not forget the narratives I've pointed out earlier.]
At the time there's around 3.3 million registered voters in the State.
If one of the ongoing narratives in the State is that there are people registered as Dems, but are really Repubs, and that they like to try and sway primaries(which are closed primaries) by voting for the lesser candidate, hoping they win and that their preferred Repub candidate will have an easier victory. Then why did HFH absolutely destroy her other Dem challengers in the primary? And the alleged front-runner for the Repubs had a closer primary race.
But also, why such a low turnout for Repub voters and a HUGE turnout for Dems in the primaries?
2019 KY primary for SOS
Dems:
Heather French-Henry 263,419 - Belcher 47,923 - Griffin 47,655 - Sebesta 12,088
Repubs:
M. Adams 94,404 - A. English 62,677 - Knipper 41,367 - Nett 30,340
Now, when the 2019 General election came around - magically a crap-ton of Repub voters turned out. But overall turnout still wasn't half of registered voters. Yet this was considered a highly contested race.
M. Adams(R) 746,629 - Heather French-Henry(D) 682,096
Moving on to the 2020 Presidential race. But first.
In an article by the Courier-Journal, also posted on the new SOS's gov page, in Feb 2020 the number of registered voters was 3,462,152 - more on these totals in a minute.
1,678,538 Dem or 48%
1,472,985 Repub or 43%
and "other" constituted 9%, but didn't give or list an exact number.
2020 President election for Ky.
Dems: 1,672,473 registered - 992,639 voted - 59.4% turnout.
Repubs 1,568,842 registered - 1,010,845 voted - 64.4% turnout.
Others 324,391 registered - 145,962 voted - 45% turnout.
Now, just because someone is registered a party affiliation, doesn't mean they vote that way. And apparently that's the ongoing narrative for years in Ky.
Results:
Trump 1,326,646 - 62.1%
Biden 772,474 - 36.2%
So even if Trump got all 100% of the registered Repubs that turned out to vote - 1,010,845 - AND got 100% of all the "other" registered voters(don't forget most are Independents that historically lean Dem) that turned out to vote - 145,962 - if add those together it's 1,156,807 - still wouldn't equal the total stated for Trump of 1,326,646 - would still need to get(syphon off) about 170 thousand or so of the Dems voter turnout of 992,639 votes.
Another thing about previous Presidential elections in Ky is that the differential for margin of victory had just kept growing for Repubs since '08 election, despite Ky always having more registered Dems in the State vs Repubs.
2008 R+16
2012 R+23
2016 R+31
But yet with the new SOS from 2019 election and him(Adams) saying he would be the person to finally "clean up the voter rolls..", plus a campaign to get more people registered to vote, the gap of registered Dems vs Repubs narrowed a tad in just one year.
But, back to those old narratives about there are just old and/or dead Dem voters on the rolls, or whatever numerous other reasons SOS's and state officials have given over the years to justify as to why we constantly have more people registered Dem in the State, yet for 25-30 years most Presidential and US Senate races in the state have been won by Repubs - the 2020 President differential election results slid back down to about R+18
Another couple figures from the 2020 Presidential election results breakdown.
Ky has way more Repub state senators vs Dem. Most Dem state senators are from Louisville and there is one for the north/northeast side of Lexington. But, there are 2 senate districts that have Dem state senators, yet went overwhelmingly for Trump, both times, and for other Repub presidents in previous elections.
District 10 - has a Dem state senator - this area is centered around Ashland on the W.V. border.
2020 - presidential election results
Dem - 44,990 registered - 24,280 voted - 54% turnout
Repub - 43,837 registered - 25,429 voted - 58% turnout
Other - 11,795 registered - 4,596 voted - 39% turnout
District 18 - is basically Hardin County - which is E-Town and Ft Knox - and has a Dem state senator.
2020 Pres election results
Dem - 44,578 registered - 23,905 voted - 53.6% turnout
Repub - 39,639 registered - 24,908 voted - 62.8% turnout
Other - 8,051 registered - 3,241 voted - 40.3% turnout
Again, it's very strange that districts that can have Dem senators have such a lower Dem and "Other" voter turnout percentage wise vs Repubs. Also considering that "others" are generally Independents and they historically lean Dem.
And the results are like this for most all counties. Not just for the 2020 Pres. election, but for previous Pres. elections as well. Plus for previous US senate or US rep elections too.
Even the districts that do have more Repubs registered vs Dems, the numbers can be lopsided even more on the voter turnout percentage.
Now some really funny numbers. The percentage of "eligible" voters registered is around 79.57%
In July 2021, the SOS office released this statement:
["Secretary of State Michael Adams announced that, after two months of small increases in Kentucky’s voter registration, the numbers again have declined. While 5,465 new registrations were logged, 5,880 registrations were canceled – 4,000 deceased voters, 1,236 voters who moved out of state, 374 felony convicts, 249 judged mentally incompetent, and 21 voters who voluntarily de-registered.
“While I’m proud of our diligence in cleaning up our voter rolls, I’m concerned about the drop in new registrations,” Adams said. “Registering to vote has never been easier: you can register online at our website, sos.ky.gov.”
Democratic registrants represent 46.3 percent of the electorate with 1,649,790 registered voters. Democratic registration dropped by 2,279 since May 31, a 0.14 percent decrease. Republican registrants total 1,576,259, or 44.2 percent of voters. Republicans saw an increase of 1,010 registered voters, a rise of 0.06 percent from May 31. In addition, 9.4 percent of voters, 333,912, are listed under other affiliations, which saw an increase of 854 registrants since May 31, a 0.26 percent climb."]
Dem - 1,649,790
Repub - 1,576,259
Other - 333,912
= total 3,559,961
Now the 2020 census gives Ky a population of 4,505,836, and says that 77.3% of the population is 18 and over, or roughly 3,483,011
Wait, what? Even with "cleaning up the voter rolls", AND with convicted felons(past and present) and people judged mentally incompetent, plus any other exemptions deducted off the rolls - Ky has MORE registered voters than what the Census claims should be plausible based on 18 and over statistics?
The August 2021 numbers changed as well.
Dem - 1,642,726
Repub - 1,577,955
For whatever reason, this time they broke down the "others."
Other - 185,760(this was everyone not an Independent or Libertarian, ex: Whig, Green, Reform, Constitution, Socialist, etc.)
Independent - 132,039(out of all 3rd parties, Independent still the biggest)
Libertarian - 14,454
= 3,552,934
still higher than what the 2020 census says the number of people 18 or older are in the state.
Plus I haven't mentioned about how different small-time freelance type journalists, and some from the bigger newspapers, have done stories in the past about how varied the type of voting machines are throughout the state.
I don't know if they finally are all the same manufacturer. I think they used to have various manufacturers. But, even if they are all from the same manufacture. They're not all the same models.
It's been pointed out from journalists how only the bigger precincts and populated cites have paper trail machines, and how the poorer counties, especially in the Appalachian area don't have paper trail machines, and the voter turnout for registered Dems and "others" in those counties are abnormally shewed vs the Repub turnout.
So in summary.
Either Ky really does still have a bunch of dead people on the voter rolls. And possibly people that have moved. And they're mostly all registered Dem for some reason.
And/or there are numerous people registered as Dem, or Independent, but vote Repub.
And there is constantly a lower turnout amongst Dem and "other" registered voters compared to registered Repub voters.
And, there is allegedly somehow more people registered to vote in the state vs what the 2020 census states is plausible.
- Something is amiss. 