Playing both sides of a teaser

Justin7 · 11-02-08, 09:41 AM

Terrible bet... they are anti-correlated.

You want each of those teaser legs to win 74% of the time if you're laying -120 on a 2-teamer. Say you find a game a Pk. You can play Cowboys +7.5 and Giants +7.5 with a 7.5 point teaser laying -120. Each leg, individually, will cover over 74%.

But.. If you know Cowboys +7.5 covered, you know that the Giants didn't win by more than 7.5. This knocks the win percentage down.

Ganchrow · 11-02-08, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Terrible bet... they are anti-correlated

Negatively correlated is the term of art.

Originally posted by mmike032

lets say you play a 8 team 7 point teaser. risking 10 to win 120.
so you make seperate wagers on both sides of the game at $10 each. so in fact risking $20 to win $120. but you have a huge spread covered from both sides. Do you follow me here?
EX: one bet would have Titans +3
the other bet would have Packers +11
so in essence you would have a great chance of the game falling within one of these numbers right?
what am I missing here? this seems to good to be true.

See teasing both sides of the same game.

mmike032 · 11-02-08, 11:22 AM

thanks for the link, but I am talking bout 2 different teasers.
I can see the disadvantage in the same teaser but it seems like an advantage if done in different teasers. Of course I am no mathmatician , so I have no idea about the probalilities.
Doesnt it make sense in different teasers?
Wouldnt it give somewhat of an edge if you feel their is a chance for an upset, and that way the upset would be covered.
OK, so I read the whole tread that time. So the only advantage is to tease the dog/under?
I'm lost, to many numbers and to much math for my feeble mind to comprehend

Justin7 · 11-02-08, 11:24 AM

If each leg is profitable on its own, it's fine to bet opposite sides in different bets.

mmike032 · 11-02-08, 11:34 AM

how do you determine if each leg is profitable? Teasers always look good before the game starts dont they.

Justin7 · 11-02-08, 11:38 AM

Look at this video

mmike032 · 11-02-08, 11:54 AM

thanks man, your a very sharp fella

and a great contributer to this site

Igetp2s · 11-02-08, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

If each leg is profitable on its own, it's fine to bet opposite sides in different bets.

never mind

wannabet · 11-03-08, 03:37 PM

If you would like my personal opinion on hedging the last leg of a parlay.

This mistake is not necessarily in the hedge, but in the original parlay. Some bettors like to hedge the last leg of a parlay if they are lucky to have won all the first legs. Before the last leg of the parlay, they realize they can lock in a profit and they cannot resist. Instead of paying the vigorish to bet against the last team of the parlay, you should simply play a parlay with fewer teams. For example, instead of playing a 5-team parlay where you know you are going to hedge if you win the first four games, you should simply play a 4-team parlay instead.

The exception to this is if the sportsbook is offering better odds for choosing more teams in a parlay. In that case, you may have decided ahead of time to hedge and calculated the cost of the hedge into the parlay. That is an exception though and is not usually the case.

This mistake is made when players have the lottery mentality. They want to hit it big and gets lots of bang for their buck. These players will tend to play parlays with many teams so they can win big if they get really lucky. However if they do get lucky and have just one or two teams to go to win the parlay, often they get nervous with their newfound risk of losing the parlay now that it has tremendous value. Hedging is not necessarily a mistake if they feel the risk is too high and cannot stomach losing. The mistake was putting themselves in that position in the first place by playing too many teams in the parlay.

Justin7 · 11-03-08, 09:31 PM

Wannabet's right on.

reno cool · 11-03-08, 10:54 PM

The only reason not to hedge once you're there is if you're comfortable betting the amount your parlay is now worth on your last pick.