Any value on Frank Mir +435?

Rubber Guard · 05-26-12, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

If you break down their bouts vs Nelson ... I think Mir did a much better job against Tubby than JDS did ... Mir got out of that bout virtually unscathed while Santos had his face cut up pretty good, both won via unanimous decision and for both the fight was on the feet the whole bout ...

Mirs standup is underrated , he has a an accurate straight forward punch whereas JDS likes to throw looping bombs and hooks after he sets up with his jab, in theory if both throw a power punch at the same time Frank should connect first, as for power , JDS holds the edge, but dont underestimate Franks stand up , he was the first guy to ever KO Big Nog ( JDS hero ) and the first to submit him ....

Mir beat Big Nog when he has Staph infection and it was painfully obvious that he wasn't right. The 2nd time...he was ******* lit up by big Nog on the feet. YES, I said LIT UP BY BIG NOG ON THE FEET.

Who has Mir struck with? Only thing half way impressive was dropping Kongo. But Kongo is a gatekeeper and not even a top 15 HW. Mir overpowered and out grappled Roy. He looked terrible vs. Cro Cop until a random knee at the very end. He looked TERRIBLE vs. Big Nog until the end.

He has looked like dog shit.

I respect the hell out of Mir's BJJ game. But when you can't get a guy to the mat you are in trouble. He was totally schooled by Big Nog standing. Mir's standup isn't underrated at all.
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PedroG · 05-26-12, 03:57 PM

I played two weeks ago at +385 , gonna come back for some more now ....

INTERNET / -1
May 13 06:35 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET
[24501] F.MIR +385
(F.MIR vrs J. DOS SANTOS)

200 / 770

5mike5 · 05-26-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

mir by KO is +1500 at bookmaker...if Mir wins, this is the way it goes down imo...

better get to 5dimes, even though doubtfully he KOs him

+2200 there for Mir by KO/TKO

i thinjk my +575 by sub. only chance he has to win this fight, but that just my opinion

PedroG · 05-26-12, 04:05 PM

Fukk I cant get the sub line at the places I bet, But I do like that ..... no way this is a 5 round decison , if Mir wins its SUB or Bust .....

dww123 · 05-26-12, 04:10 PM

Carwin couldn't get it to the ground so I don't see Mir getting it there. I actually think the line is favorable for JDS at -500. It's gonna take a miracle for Mir to pull an upset and for the same fighter pulling off 2 miracles in back to back fights is very unlikely. Just think, had Nog simply punched Mir in the head 1 or 2 more times and this JDS/Mir fight was still happening somehow (I realize it wouldn't be), what do you think the line would be?

FindTheLock · 05-26-12, 04:15 PM

the most likely thing to happen is JDS wins in the first few rounds via brutal KO. Mirs chin is shaky, but he has good recovery. The problem is he might have to recover from a combination of shots. The only guys who can take multiple shots vs JDS are guys who have titanium jaws like Roy the tank nelson.

5mike5 · 05-26-12, 04:16 PM

if this and if that had happened, really doesnt matter much in mma

he snapped his arm in half

spankie · 05-26-12, 04:22 PM

no fukin value.

PedroG · 05-26-12, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

Mir beat Big Nog when he has Staph infection and it was painfully obvious that he wasn't right. The 2nd time...he was ******* lit up by big Nog on the feet. YES, I said LIT UP BY BIG NOG ON THE FEET.

Who has Mir struck with? Only thing half way impressive was dropping Kongo. But Kongo is a gatekeeper and not even a top 15 HW. Mir overpowered and out grappled Roy. He looked terrible vs. Cro Cop until a random knee at the very end. He looked TERRIBLE vs. Big Nog until the end.

He has looked like dog shit.

I respect the hell out of Mir's BJJ game. But when you can't get a guy to the mat you are in trouble. He was totally schooled by Big Nog standing. Mir's standup isn't underrated at all.
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LIGHTING SOMEBODY UP , dont mean JACK SHIT when you lose the fight ( Via having your arm snapped like a drumstick )

Big Nog was full exuses after the first fight , yea yea , I heard about the "staph infection" ... maybe he shouldnt have took the fight then ? But he did , and he lost and he had an excuse ... and the 2nd fight against Mir , he was healthy and Hurt Mir ... but couldnt finish him and LOST again .... ?? You can say what you want about getting lit up and the other guy being hurt , end of the day thats two wins for Mir against arguably one of the greatest heavyweights (albeit past his time ) of all time.

I never said Mir will win , Title of thread is , is there value ,

and My answer is YES , and I put down $200 of my own money cause I really feel that way , are you laying -550 ?? if so ... Ill respect your "opinion" a lot more, but I doubt you are ....

Imsmarterthanu · 05-26-12, 04:24 PM

Mir is going to get owned so hard

5mike5 · 05-26-12, 04:28 PM

laying -500+ in mma is never very smart

lose 1 or 2 of those and take u all year to get back to even if u win all the others

Thor4140 · 05-26-12, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

If you break down their bouts vs Nelson ... I think Mir did a much better job against Tubby than JDS did ... Mir got out of that bout virtually unscathed while Santos had his face cut up pretty good, both won via unanimous decision and for both the fight was on the feet the whole bout ...

Mirs standup is underrated , he has a an accurate straight forward punch whereas JDS likes to throw looping bombs and hooks after he sets up with his jab, in theory if both throw a power punch at the same time Frank should connect first, as for power , JDS holds the edge, but dont underestimate Franks stand up , he was the first guy to ever KO Big Nog ( JDS hero ) and the first to submit him ....

Mir is also a southpaw. Has JDS even fought one in the last 5 years or any for that matter? Anyone?

GoldRush7 · 05-26-12, 04:38 PM

I will be making a play on him for the sole fact that he is very game and has the ability to win this fight

sirchadwick1 · 05-26-12, 04:39 PM

Mir SOTN at +700 is the perfect hedge for those of us going very large on JDS in this fight. It's the only cushion we really need...

No point in playing Mir by sub at +435. If he gets it, he's getting the award no doubt.

raydog · 05-26-12, 04:42 PM

people forget that mir has solid boxing skills..one of the best in the hw division and still works with a boxing trainer... always a chance guys this big can land a bomb...but really, its best to just throw jds in some parlays...

dww123 · 05-26-12, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

LIGHTING SOMEBODY UP , dont mean JACK SHIT when you lose the fight ( Via having your arm snapped like a drumstick )

Big Nog was full exuses after the first fight , yea yea , I heard about the "staph infection" ... maybe he shouldnt have took the fight then ? But he did , and he lost and he had an excuse ... and the 2nd fight against Mir , he was healthy and Hurt Mir ... but couldnt finish him and LOST again .... ?? You can say what you want about getting lit up and the other guy being hurt , end of the day thats two wins for Mir against arguably one of the greatest heavyweights (albeit past his time ) of all time.

I never said Mir will win , Title of thread is , is there value ,

and My answer is YES , and I put down $200 of my own money cause I really feel that way , are you laying -550 ?? if so ... Ill respect your "opinion" a lot more, but I doubt you are ....

Couldn't disagree more. When I break down fights, who actually won or lost in prior fights is secondary to how that individual performed. I put 10k on Mir to win against Nog and i'm glad he won but what i took away from the fight was 1. Mir started breathing with his mouth open at the 2:54 mark. He was 260 lbs in that fight. He weighed in yesterday at 261. I would surmise his cardio is going to be about the same. 2. His striking is rather slow and telegraphed and his chin is more or less shot and 3. He got very lucky. Now if gamblers want to turn a blind eye to all that then go for it. But at the end of the night it will be JDS with his hand raised.

PedroG · 05-26-12, 05:02 PM

Im digging this forum , glad I found my password , wasnt expecting a 50 post thread about Frank Mir of all people, Good Stuff guys ... Im looking forward to the whole card, and with JDS at -550 , there better not be a bunch of knuckleheads coming in here bumping this saying I told you so , if Frank loses ....tommorrow.

sirchadwick1 · 05-26-12, 05:04 PM

Haha... WHEN JDS wins, there is no reason to say told ya so. It's just like the sun coming up in the morning or death and taxes.

PedroG · 05-26-12, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by dww123

Couldn't disagree more. When I break down fights, who actually won or lost in prior fights is secondary to how that individual performed. I put 10k on Mir to win against Nog and i'm glad he won but what i took away from the fight was 1. Mir started breathing with his mouth open at the 2:54 mark. He was 260 lbs in that fight. He weighed in yesterday at 261. I would surmise his cardio is going to be about the same. 2. His striking is rather slow and telegraphed and his chin is more or less shot and 3. He got very lucky. Now if gamblers want to turn a blind eye to all that then go for it. But at the end of the night it will be JDS with his hand raised.

With that thoery are you gonna bet against Mayweather in his next fight , I mean he got roughed up , had his nose broken ... didnt display the inpentrable defense that we're accustomed too ? Fukk , lets unload against him next time right ??? WRONG

Remember your only as good as tommorrows starting pitcher ...

and 10k ? on UFC fight , damn you must have some nice OUTS, most places I know only take a dime max.

Look everything is pointing for a JDS win , theres a reason hes -500 and the line went up , BUT, Ive followed UFC since UFC 1 ... and Ive havent missed a main card in 10 years , Ive seen every fight and rewatched them the next day , just like you . and Im saying MIR is a LIVE DOG ... Chances are I will lose , But would take mir at +400 every day of the week against JDS ( and twice on Saturdays ...)

Rubber Guard · 05-26-12, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by 5mike5

if this and if that had happened, really doesnt matter much in mma

he snapped his arm in half

Doesn't erase the fact that he looked like shit standing vs. a guy who is about at the end of his career who is about half as fast as JDS.
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Rubber Guard · 05-26-12, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

LIGHTING SOMEBODY UP , dont mean JACK SHIT when you lose the fight ( Via having your arm snapped like a drumstick )

Big Nog was full exuses after the first fight , yea yea , I heard about the "staph infection" ... maybe he shouldnt have took the fight then ? But he did , and he lost and he had an excuse ... and the 2nd fight against Mir , he was healthy and Hurt Mir ... but couldnt finish him and LOST again .... ?? You can say what you want about getting lit up and the other guy being hurt , end of the day thats two wins for Mir against arguably one of the greatest heavyweights (albeit past his time ) of all time.

I never said Mir will win , Title of thread is , is there value ,

and My answer is YES , and I put down $200 of my own money cause I really feel that way , are you laying -550 ?? if so ... Ill respect your "opinion" a lot more, but I doubt you are ....

So because Mir snapped his arm we should just erase the standing part of the fight from our minds? Sure. That is a great way to cap fights!

Hey Mir got owned on the feet by a zombie of a fighter....but that doesn't matter because he broke his arm.

How does that make any sense?

Fact is....Mir was schooled by Nog in the boxing portion. Imagine how bad JDS will kick his ass? Mir isn't going to get the luxury of a guy rocking him and then going for the sub like Nog did. He will get rocked...and then rocked some more....because he has little to ZERO way of getting it to the ground.

He better hope pulling guard works out...because that is his only hope.

It is a lot easier to throw 200 measly bucks on a huge dog then it is throwing a couple grand on a -550 line. I have JDS in multiple parlays and I'm not that worried about him ruining any of them.
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PedroG · 05-26-12, 05:16 PM

come down to one of my favorites sayings

IF MY AUNT HAD BALLS , SHED BE MY UNCLE ...

NunyaBidness · 05-26-12, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Mir SOTN at +700 is the perfect hedge for those of us going very large on JDS in this fight. It's the only cushion we really need...

No point in playing Mir by sub at +435. If he gets it, he's getting the award no doubt.

Struve is a real threat there. Mir SOTN at +1000 was available briefly, took that.

Rubber Guard · 05-26-12, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Mir SOTN at +700 is the perfect hedge for those of us going very large on JDS in this fight. It's the only cushion we really need...

No point in playing Mir by sub at +435. If he gets it, he's getting the award no doubt.

Agreed.

If I were thinking of laying anything on Mir it would just be the SOTN prop. If he wins it is most likely by sub. And if a big dog in the main event pulls even a standard rear naked choke you bet your ass it will get SOTN.

There is no value in Mir's line because you can get SOTN at a better line and that is the outcome if he should pull it off.

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dww123 · 05-26-12, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

With that thoery are you gonna bet against Mayweather in his next fight , I mean he got roughed up , had his nose broken ... didnt display the inpentrable defense that we're accustomed too ? Fukk , lets unload against him next time right ??? WRONG

Remember your only as good as tommorrows starting pitcher ...

and 10k ? on UFC fight , damn you must have some nice OUTS, most places I know only take a dime max.

Look everything is pointing for a JDS win , theres a reason hes -500 and the line went up , BUT, Ive followed UFC since UFC 1 ... and Ive havent missed a main card in 10 years , Ive seen every fight and rewatched them the next day , just like you . and Im saying MIR is a LIVE DOG ... Chances are I will lose , But would take mir at +400 every day of the week against JDS ( and twice on Saturdays ...)

Mayweather won that fight handily and i don't know who he is fighting next. But sure, he is getting older like everybody else and his speed and reaction time is slowing down so it would have to be concidered at time goes on. And i love nothing more than a live dog but Mir isn't one of them. It's the worst possible match up for him. He fighting a guy who is very difficult to take down and has vastly better stand up. When Mir's only chance is on the ground, how is that a live dog? As far as where i bet, bovada allows you to win up to 5k on the main card and 2k on the UC. I think Mir was around -225 when i bet on him

Rubber Guard · 05-26-12, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

come down to one of my favorites sayings

IF MY AUNT HAD BALLS , SHED BE MY UNCLE ...

I don't even know what you are babbling about?

Am I saying Nog should of won? No. Am I saying Mir's sub was a fluke? No.

I am saying he looked like ass gas while trying to stand with Nog. That is a fact....his boxing and head movement looked god awful vs. an old out of his prime fighter.

There is no would of could of should of. It is fact.
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PedroG · 05-26-12, 05:25 PM

So you layed JDS then ??

hels · 05-26-12, 05:31 PM

I think the only chance Mir has is too run away for a round and a half and try to frustrate Dos Santos -- I'm not saying Dos Santos will get frustrated and he probably wouldn't but for Mir to win Dos Santos will have to make a mistake and Mir will find an opening for a takedown.

Punch for punch we know how it will end. You can't underrate a fighter like Mir.

Rubber Guard · 05-26-12, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

So you layed JDS then ??

No I canceled since you won me over with your "Mir's standup is underrated" talk. Then you backed up that opinion by talking about your aunts and uncles.

I mean how can I go against that?
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dww123 · 05-26-12, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

So you layed JDS then ??

Not my type

PedroG · 05-26-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by dww123

Not my type

LOL , that made me laugh , good one

However , if you are ADAMANT that there is ABSOLUTELY no value in MIR , then Wouldnt there be value in JDS ?? and if there is value , then why not play it and earn some "easy money" ... ? just curious ( and not bi-curious either ..)

dww123 · 05-26-12, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by PedroG

LOL , that made me laugh , good one

However , if you are ADAMANT that there is ABSOLUTELY no value in MIR , then Wouldnt there be value in JDS ?? and if there is value , then why not play it and earn some "easy money" ... ? just curious ( and not bi-curious either ..)

I am. I just have decided how much. either 10 or 15k. I can talk all day but when it comes down to submitting the bet its never easy for me. Quite stressful.

5mike5 · 05-26-12, 06:11 PM

what do u guys think about bigfoot's chances tonight?

PedroG · 05-26-12, 06:15 PM

Well good luck im off to watch game 7 , and the UFC .... talk to guys in the morning , when we discuss the fights ....Peace.

dww123 · 05-26-12, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by 5mike5

what do u guys think about bigfoot's chances tonight?

Cain was knocked down 3 times by Kongo and of course knocked out by JDS. Bigfoot will enter the cage with about a 40 lb weight advantage. If he can knock Cain down and get on top he will be mighty tough to get him off. Bigfoot is a BJJ and Judo blackbelt. Also, Cain only has 1 min. of cage time in the past 18 months. That being said, Cain is much much faster and much more athletic and has great cardio I like Cain but I think -400 is a little high. If he didn't knocked down so many friggin times by Kongo i would bet on him