It's been a weird year in football at the bottom of the ladder. As much as you hear about "parity" in both college and pro football, there are some bad teams that are REALLY bad.
Take the Idaho Vandals for example. They haven't exactly been keeping their horrible team a secret.
• They opened the season with a 70-0 loss at Arizona. Not 35-0, or 50-0. THAT'S SEVENTY TO NOTHING! Idaho was +26 on the Vegas board, so they missed the line by 46 points.
• The next time Idaho was on the board, they were +8 at home against Western Michigan. They lost that game 51-28, missing the spread by 15 points. That's a combined 121-28 loss on the scoreboard in board games, and a combined miss of 61 points.
• The next week, Idaho was +4 on the road at Utah State. How could a team this bad only be +4 on the road? Well, Utah State was thought to be horrible this year too. Some in the media were calling Utah State the worst team in the country, which means they weren't paying attention to Idaho either. The Vandals lost that game 42-17, missing the spread by three touchdowns. Through three board games, Idaho was 0-3 ATS, with a scoreboard loss of 163-45, and a combined pointspread miss of 82 points. You'd think people would have noticed this.
• Idaho wrapped up September as an 11-point dog to a bad San Diego State team. This is the squad that lost its opener to Cal Poly you'll recall. Clearly some adjustment has been made. Idaho is +11 to the team that lost to Cal Poly. Didn't matter. Idaho dropped a 45-17 decision, missing the spread by 17 points. The scoreboard now reads 208-62 in their four board losses, with a combined miss of 99 points. Do I hear 100?
• A couple of nights ago, Idaho opened October with a 49-14 loss at home to Nevada as a 24-point underdog. This game got some local run in Nevada since the Wolfpack of Reno was playing. You can see that the linesmakers were trying to adjust. Getting 24 points at home to a mid-level WAC team is pretty high. Still missed by double digits.
Idaho Summary:
0-5 ATS
257-76 scoreboard loss
110 points away from the market pointspreads
WHILE PLAYING A WEAK SCHEDULE!
Maybe there's something in the water in the Pacific Northwest. Idaho has been known to share a field with Washington State because of their proximity on the map.
• Washington State (+7) lost at home to Oklahoma State 39-13, at a line that looks unbelievable in retrospect. What would that line be today?
• Washington State (+13) lost at California 66-3. Not as bad as 70-0, but you'd have thought that would have sent up some red flags.
• Washington State (+6) lost at Baylor 45-17. There was a lot of press about Washington State having to fly in on game day because of concerns about a hurricane. People put too much weight on that and not enough on how bad the Cougars are this year.
• Washington State (+21) lost to Oregon 63-14. This was the game where nobody knew who would be playing quarterback for the Ducks. 63 points later, nobody was concerned about it.
• Washington State (+17) lost at UCLA 28-3. This is the UCLA team that's been struggling badly against anyone besides Tennessee.
Washington State Summary:
0-5 ATS
241-50 scoreboard loss (that's almost 50-10 every week!)
117 points away from market pointspreads
As bad as Idaho was...as ridiculous as the Vandals performance was against market expectations...Washington State has actually missed the spread by a greater distance this year.
Let's stay West of the Mississippi and do one more.
• Wyoming opened the season with a 21-20 victory over Ohio. Hey, we're not used to seeing victories in this article so that seems like a success. Wrong! Wyoming was a 13-point favorite. This is a team that returned a lot of starters from an up-and-coming 2007 squad. They were supposed to be pretty good this year.
• Wyoming followed that up with a 23-3 loss at home to Air Force. Wyoming was a 3-point favorite in this game, and only scored three points. Through two games, the Cowboys had missed the spread by 39 points...and had only scored 23 themselves.
• Wyoming's next board game came at BYU (after a less than scintillating 16-13 win over North Dakota State). They dropped a 44-0 decision as 28-poing underdogs. That's 67-3 the last two board games on the scoreboard, and 87-23 in all three. They had missed the spread by 55 points.
• Yes, there's more. Wyoming was just a 3-point home underdog to Bowling Green following the rout in Provo. Time for a rout in Laramie. Wyoming lost 45-16, and missed the spread by 26 points. 132-39 on the scoreboard, 81 points away from expectations.
• Since Idaho and Washington State were destined for 0-5 ATS, Wyoming didn't want to be left out. The Cowboys were shut out again this past week at New Mexico, dropping a 24-0 decision as 11-point underdogs.
Wyoming Summary
0-5 ATS
156-39 on the scoreboard
94 points away from market pointspreads.
I had planned on running through Washington, Texas A&M, and North Texas too. They're all 1-4 ATS. They all struggled against expectations this past weekend as well, suggesting the line hasn't caught up yet.
That's the key to note here. It's not just that there are bad teams...or bad teams who aren't covering spreads. We're talking about bad teams where the line still hasn't registered how bad things really are.
Idaho was nowhere near the spread this week. Washington State and Wyoming were closer, but still not within a touchdown. North Texas and Washington missed by double digits too.
As handicappers, you owe it to yourself to try and find teams like this that aren't registering in the market. There are usually a few each year on both ends of the spectrum in both college and pro football. If I wanted to add in the NFL today, I could have listed the results of Detroit and St. Louis. Same story there. The lines just haven't found where those teams are playing yet. Bettors are either ignoring the games, or taking some flyers that "nobody could be that bad" while hoping for turnarounds.
Wait for a turnaround to start happening before you bet it!
Usually I'd advise you that teams with poor pointspread records are likely to turn things around in the second half of the season. We've seen that often in the past. Once the public gives up on somebody, they put some pieces together and start to be a bit more competitive. With the teams listed today, I can't advise that. There's no evidence that the pieces are coming together. There's no evidence that the market has a full comprehension of what's going on with those teams. See if you can find any ways to take advantage before that finally does happen.
Take the Idaho Vandals for example. They haven't exactly been keeping their horrible team a secret.
• They opened the season with a 70-0 loss at Arizona. Not 35-0, or 50-0. THAT'S SEVENTY TO NOTHING! Idaho was +26 on the Vegas board, so they missed the line by 46 points.
• The next time Idaho was on the board, they were +8 at home against Western Michigan. They lost that game 51-28, missing the spread by 15 points. That's a combined 121-28 loss on the scoreboard in board games, and a combined miss of 61 points.
• The next week, Idaho was +4 on the road at Utah State. How could a team this bad only be +4 on the road? Well, Utah State was thought to be horrible this year too. Some in the media were calling Utah State the worst team in the country, which means they weren't paying attention to Idaho either. The Vandals lost that game 42-17, missing the spread by three touchdowns. Through three board games, Idaho was 0-3 ATS, with a scoreboard loss of 163-45, and a combined pointspread miss of 82 points. You'd think people would have noticed this.
• Idaho wrapped up September as an 11-point dog to a bad San Diego State team. This is the squad that lost its opener to Cal Poly you'll recall. Clearly some adjustment has been made. Idaho is +11 to the team that lost to Cal Poly. Didn't matter. Idaho dropped a 45-17 decision, missing the spread by 17 points. The scoreboard now reads 208-62 in their four board losses, with a combined miss of 99 points. Do I hear 100?
• A couple of nights ago, Idaho opened October with a 49-14 loss at home to Nevada as a 24-point underdog. This game got some local run in Nevada since the Wolfpack of Reno was playing. You can see that the linesmakers were trying to adjust. Getting 24 points at home to a mid-level WAC team is pretty high. Still missed by double digits.
Idaho Summary:
0-5 ATS
257-76 scoreboard loss
110 points away from the market pointspreads
WHILE PLAYING A WEAK SCHEDULE!
Maybe there's something in the water in the Pacific Northwest. Idaho has been known to share a field with Washington State because of their proximity on the map.
• Washington State (+7) lost at home to Oklahoma State 39-13, at a line that looks unbelievable in retrospect. What would that line be today?
• Washington State (+13) lost at California 66-3. Not as bad as 70-0, but you'd have thought that would have sent up some red flags.
• Washington State (+6) lost at Baylor 45-17. There was a lot of press about Washington State having to fly in on game day because of concerns about a hurricane. People put too much weight on that and not enough on how bad the Cougars are this year.
• Washington State (+21) lost to Oregon 63-14. This was the game where nobody knew who would be playing quarterback for the Ducks. 63 points later, nobody was concerned about it.
• Washington State (+17) lost at UCLA 28-3. This is the UCLA team that's been struggling badly against anyone besides Tennessee.
Washington State Summary:
0-5 ATS
241-50 scoreboard loss (that's almost 50-10 every week!)
117 points away from market pointspreads
As bad as Idaho was...as ridiculous as the Vandals performance was against market expectations...Washington State has actually missed the spread by a greater distance this year.
Let's stay West of the Mississippi and do one more.
• Wyoming opened the season with a 21-20 victory over Ohio. Hey, we're not used to seeing victories in this article so that seems like a success. Wrong! Wyoming was a 13-point favorite. This is a team that returned a lot of starters from an up-and-coming 2007 squad. They were supposed to be pretty good this year.
• Wyoming followed that up with a 23-3 loss at home to Air Force. Wyoming was a 3-point favorite in this game, and only scored three points. Through two games, the Cowboys had missed the spread by 39 points...and had only scored 23 themselves.
• Wyoming's next board game came at BYU (after a less than scintillating 16-13 win over North Dakota State). They dropped a 44-0 decision as 28-poing underdogs. That's 67-3 the last two board games on the scoreboard, and 87-23 in all three. They had missed the spread by 55 points.
• Yes, there's more. Wyoming was just a 3-point home underdog to Bowling Green following the rout in Provo. Time for a rout in Laramie. Wyoming lost 45-16, and missed the spread by 26 points. 132-39 on the scoreboard, 81 points away from expectations.
• Since Idaho and Washington State were destined for 0-5 ATS, Wyoming didn't want to be left out. The Cowboys were shut out again this past week at New Mexico, dropping a 24-0 decision as 11-point underdogs.
Wyoming Summary
0-5 ATS
156-39 on the scoreboard
94 points away from market pointspreads.
I had planned on running through Washington, Texas A&M, and North Texas too. They're all 1-4 ATS. They all struggled against expectations this past weekend as well, suggesting the line hasn't caught up yet.
That's the key to note here. It's not just that there are bad teams...or bad teams who aren't covering spreads. We're talking about bad teams where the line still hasn't registered how bad things really are.
Idaho was nowhere near the spread this week. Washington State and Wyoming were closer, but still not within a touchdown. North Texas and Washington missed by double digits too.
As handicappers, you owe it to yourself to try and find teams like this that aren't registering in the market. There are usually a few each year on both ends of the spectrum in both college and pro football. If I wanted to add in the NFL today, I could have listed the results of Detroit and St. Louis. Same story there. The lines just haven't found where those teams are playing yet. Bettors are either ignoring the games, or taking some flyers that "nobody could be that bad" while hoping for turnarounds.
Wait for a turnaround to start happening before you bet it!
Usually I'd advise you that teams with poor pointspread records are likely to turn things around in the second half of the season. We've seen that often in the past. Once the public gives up on somebody, they put some pieces together and start to be a bit more competitive. With the teams listed today, I can't advise that. There's no evidence that the pieces are coming together. There's no evidence that the market has a full comprehension of what's going on with those teams. See if you can find any ways to take advantage before that finally does happen.