[Rod1010]

It wont win all the time . Most of the time teams better at LOS win . Covering the spread is the next step in this which is why ill go 55-60% with this "system" .. just tryna help u fukks

[onetrickpony]

funny funny isnt 1 d1ck the norm? maybe things in texas are different

so who has the better line jets/steelers?

what about pack/bears?

why didnt u take the pats, best line in the game, brady threw less than 5 picks

[Rod1010]

Pats D-line sucks . Jets o-line and d-line great .

pretty simple ... ill be looking at the stats for this weeks wild card game and ill post my picks

[onetrickpony]

to each is their own

good luck on ur future endeavors

[jjgold]

Rod is sharp

The idea is as good as any

Books take their largest wagers on the nfl because there is no edge

[Full Time Hobo]

give us this weeks winners with your new system

and JJ you have enough threads about your NFL expertise... I think they have all been bumped... you make about 4 every game contradicting yourself

[dngf]

So Rod, what does the info tell you, if you will.
Jets 5 defense vs rush 7 vs pass. Jets 3 offensive rush, 8 pass. So they like to run, have trained Mark to get rid of the ball, have decent defense.
Pittsburgh 1 defense vs rush, 3 vs pass. Pit offense 19 rush, 29 pass. So if they could run the ball they would be a bigger favorite to win the SB, Big Ben will stand back there all day and wait for someone to get open and will take hits.

[Chandler]

do most cappers underestimate line play? sure, they are typical squares that only look at skill positions and irrelevant stats.
Are Line of Scrimmage "matchups" important? yes, but even people that know this, don't know how to break down matchups, based upon man vs zone blocking schemes, let alone figure out how things look differently for the o-lines vs 3-4 fronts and 4-3 fronts and all the nickel and dime package variations, plus new blitz packages that d-coordinators will put in for different games. If the NFL was predictable enough to just randomly say team a's o-line is better thean team b's d-line. Then they wouldn't pay coaches and coordinators hundreds of thousands of dollars to look at 50 hrs of film and make adjustments each week. Its very complicated

its not black and white, its alot of info to digest. and you have to have an understanding of the game that only former players have. I doubt the OP does/has that.


beyond that. Special Teams and Field Position are the two biggest factors that bettors don't factor in. Special teams counts for alot, but its rare you see people comment or think about that when betting football. especially college

[Sawyer]

[Rod1010]

Most idiots here laughing are squares losing bettors . Chandler i can tell ur sharp . LOS is all that matters .

[milwaukee mike]

offensive/defensive line play is a good indicator, but it's so subjective

i have no idea how someone could base a pick on who has the better offensive/defensive line - there's really no stats for line play that can't be manipulated

[Rod1010]

Yes there is Milky . This is the only edge we have here . By studying these teams I went 6-2 in the playoffs . Work hard find get ur info . U can always get that 2 to 5 % edge if you really work hard .

[ttwarrior1]

rod copying my posts from weeks ago.

[Rod1010]

rod copying my posts from weeks ago.

post the thread . i doubt u even know this shit .

[Chandler]

Most idiots here laughing are squares losing bettors . Chandler i can tell ur sharp . LOS is all that matters .

you didn't address any of my concerns with your thesis that LOS is all that matters. How do you factor in special teams into your capping?

what are you opinions on having a big line that dominates, vs a team that throws a lot of screens, bubble screens, bunch receiver packages at the D?

How do you cap a game with aggressive defeneses that need to have interior penetration and pressure on the QB on the two worst surfaces in the NFL with no traction for the defensive Ends?


all i'm saying, if trying to boil down a super complicated dynamic chess game into 2 line of scrimmage equations. A is greater or less than B.

you have a lot to learn about the game.

simplifying capping can be advantageous for 99% of bettors though, as they are almost all losers. and why spend hours breaking down a game that you REALLY don't know. just to flip a coin?

so what are your picks for this Sunday Rob?

[Rod1010]

Chandler ... My picks will be coming this week .. ill post em tonight or tomorrow . Just to be clear im no tout ... Anyone willing to pay for any service should off himself

[unusialsusp5]

i don't think anyone believes you pour over ol dl stats on every college and nfl game every week. talk about an exercise in futility. even you wouldn't go through all those games every week to do that. no one would.

[Rod1010]

read my posts i said dont bet football much . Too much time studying teams . Went 15-4 whole season betting NFl . That dosent matter since i didnt post most of those picks here but you get the point. If your really into betting football then you can get that small 2to5% advantage ...

[stevenash]

Line of scrimmage . Thats all you should be looking for . O-line vs D-line .

nothing else matters

If you stopped at line of scrimmage, and left out nothing else matters, you'd be on to something.
Line of scrimmage is very important, GB has it, especially in front of Rogers, I have been touting their front line, they have been good to me, HOWEVER, you do not start 'capping there, you do not ignore it though.

[TPowell]

glad nobody seems to believe him

[Rod1010]

To each their own . LOS is all that matters for me . Went 6-2 betting this in the playoffs . Small sample yeah i know

[TPowell]

I bet Oklahoma State quite a bit this year in NCAAF because I saw early on that they controlled the LOS very well. Turned out pretty good

[jayc88]

[jayc88]

my dog could easily pick 6 winners out of 8

[Rod1010]

6 of 8 dosent mean shit. Read my posts idiot.

[Chandler]

good luck next year

[uhuhahah]

that's all....

[milwaukee mike]

2-5% advantage isn't good enough
i can do way better than that in football
top 10 in blackie's
top 50 in beat the prick
2nd in bowl contest

when i post a football pick you can rest assured it's gonna win

best of luck rod
if i can make a suggestion, if you tone down the rhetoric of calling everyone idiots you might get more love and less hate

[Rod1010]

mike ur sharp . i call everyone idiots here true but im not being serious . Post ur plays

[milwaukee mike]

i have no strong leans for this weekend, might not take anything except for shits and giggles
who you like rod?

[Chandler]

I want to know who rod and mike like for this weekend?

[spargament]

I'm curious to hear what impact if any you see with the LOS on totals

[milwaukee mike]

I want to know who rod and mike like for this weekend?

i think +4 on the jets looks decent
i have no real confidence in either game, might play totals depending on the weather

there will probably be about 5 stronger plays on the board sunday than either of these games so please guys don't bet big just because it's a championship game - these things can go either way with a turnover or 2

[RustedVegas]

Snaps to you Rod1010 on putting your finger on the most important factor for picking NFL winners. These squares must not notice the good games weak QBs have when their OL gives them protection. Chandler makes some good points, but when a DE has trouble getting traction then the OL also has trouble getting traction especially when the OL is moving backwards on pass protection. Now if the road team brought the wrong cleats then there's a difference in traction.

[Dex17]

movement too pavy .. Line of scrimmage will decide games . 6-2 betting this way in playoffs .. will be giving my picks later

If you really want to defend your strategy, then you should explain how you're picking the better o-line and d-line. Are you adding up all of the tackles and sacks on each defensive line and the higher number is the best? Does the most rushing yards and fewest sacks reflect the better offensive line? What if there is a push?

The problem with your "system" is that you're likely just using your (or the public's) preconceived, subjective notions of which is better. Instead of saying your pick is GB over Chicago, why don't you back it with facts/metrics?