What is the problem favorites minus the points?

[VegasDave]

As I skim through this week's college games and try to decide my favorite plays of the week for my video tomorrow, I find myself narrowed down to 9 games at the moment; 7 favorites, 2 dogs.

This may change, but I remember last week (and in week's past) I came under scrutiny for "laying the chalk" on these favorites. Am I mistaken in believing this is false criticism?

I always thought laying the chalk was picking big ML favorites, like laying -275 on the ML or whatever. With the points involved, both sides are -110... So whether you are +points or -points, you aren't any more chalky on either side, are you?

Not only do both sides pay the same, but if I'm not mistaken, when the year is all said and done, isn't the favorites/dogs ATS about 50/50? If dogs were a better bet and won 55% every year, wouldn't everyone bet the dog in every game and turn a profit?

Some people pick live dogs well. Other people pick favorites with weak lines well. Neither is better then the other; a win is a win.

Do you agree or disagree with me on this?

[Kingctb27]

Agreed buddy. Keep doing what you are doing. There is no such thing as "chalk" besides the -10 we have to burn.

[englishmike]

Good question Dave. Speaking objectively and quite possibly incorrectly, you're relatively new to actually posting your picks and consequently want to hit the ground running, and I would sugest that makes you subconciously seek favourites. In time i would guess you'll become more comfortable in picking dogs because at that point your reputation will be established.

If you look at Pags picks he very rarely picks favs and his record is absolutely tremendous, second to none, but he himself will tell you the number of hours he puts in is pretty high and he spends a lot of time watching tape. I think the longer you do this the more time you'll devote to it and you'll consequently find yourself making picks other than favourites.

I would suggest picking favourites requires less time and less lateral thinking than sifting through the dogs. I could be completely wrong, just my two cents, good luck the rest of the way and yes, a win is a win is a win.

[VegasDave]

Have to disagree with you Mike;

I actually like underdogs as the season goes on and as favorites start getting overvalued by the public and the lines skew the wrong way. I'm not afraid to pick underdogs at all. My dog picks are actually 3 - 1 so far. They just haven't been jumping off the page at me much yet this season.

I also don't think it is "easy" picking favorites AT ALL. Quite the contrary, since so many people do bet on favorites it is your job to find favorites that not only deserve to be favorites but will also play to their potential and win by what they need to. You also must get to know the dogs you are betting against and make sure they are not live to beat you.

I do not think either side is easy as all; I do think both sides should be respected equally. If I can pick 55% winners all favorites and you can pick 55% winners all dogs, I don't think either of us is better or worse at our craft.

[englishmike]

I also don't think it is "easy" picking favorites AT ALL. Quite the contrary, since so many people do bet on favorites it is your job to find favorites that not only deserve to be favorites but will also play to their potential and win by what they need to. You also must get to know the dogs you are betting against and make sure they are not live to beat you.

I do not think either side is easy as all; I do think both sides should be respected equally. If I can pick 55% winners all favorites and you can pick 55% winners all dogs, I don't think either of us is better or worse at our craft.

Two very good points and yes, if you pick 55%, however you get there, over a decent sample size it would be impossible to argue who was 'better' in achieveing those results.

[VegasDave]

Two very good points and yes, if you pick 55%, however you get there, over a decent sample size it would be impossible to argue who was 'better' in achieveing those results.

Agreed. And I'm not claiming to be able to pick 55% OR be on par with Pags. I do feel however that picking winners is all that counts, +, -, O, or U.

[BuddyBear]

It does not really matter whether you pick dogs or favorites...in the long run you'll be about 50/50. Or in other words, you'll lose your money both ways. Instead, it's best to find lines that are inefficient (either way) where you have a positive theoretical expected vaue when placing the bet. It does not matter much whether you lay -7 or +7 assuming you are making a bet that has a positive EV.
As a general rule of thumb though, you can expect to see more sharp money come in on the underdog. I'd say upwards of 60-65% of sharp money that shows comes on the underdog, but it's not a perfect positive relationship of course. This is one way in which to be a sharp player by picking off weak lines. There have been countless threads devoted to this topic.

The other way is to be so good that you can identify weak lines either through some sort of data modeling that identifies statistically significant advantages you have when compared with the current betting lines or you can watch tons of tapes, know the players/coaches, study situations, schedules, read newspapers, know the injuries, etc...and possess what I call an online processing modeling of information that is continually updated day by day, week by week, and year by year that enables you to make quick decisions about the quality of a betting line. Somebody like Pags is this type of bettor. He has all his info accumulated by Sunday afternoon and just waits for the lines to come out and identifies the weak ones. This whole process takes 20-30 minutes for him to get the weak openers....but you guys don't see the previous 120+ hours a week he puts into it. That's the beauty of the whole process.

It's up to you how you want to treat sports gambling and what kind of sports gambler you want to be.....but one thing I can guarantee you is that you can't just look at the board on Saturday morning and pick winners on a consistent basis or think that you can do a parlay 8 and expect to win with any regularity.

Good luck....