Durito.....I started following something at the end of last season in a kinda part-time way, I really didn't put much time into it and I started looking at it again this year and I may or may not be onto something.
In the lower two divisions of the Football League in England (one and two, formerly two & three), many clubs are struggling for money, some are really close to going out of buisness. Somehow they manage to survive but there is an ongoing cost cutting regime in progress at a lot of these clubs that has become incredible.
These cost cutting measures have got so severe at a lot of clubs, they are now travelling long distances on a bus on the morning of the game to save the cost of an overnight hotel for the team.
Example: Last Saturday, AFC Bournemouth travelled to Port Vale on the morning of the game, 240 miles. They lost 3-1.
That is just one example, there are a few more, but as yet I haven't researched it enough to see if there is an edge to be gained or not by backing home teams who will be playing a team that has travelled 'on the day.' Obviously if the home team is -200 it doesn't matter how the away team travelled, they'll probably lose because they're not as good as the team they're playing anyway, I'm looking at home teams who are mid-table but will be playing another mid-table team that has travelled on the day, thus ensuring a nice price.
To me, it stands to reason that, if you have two evenly matched teams but one has sat on a bus for four hours, the team that didn't sit on the bus must have some sort of edge....or maybe not, that's what I plan to find out, maybe I'm completely wrong and there's nothng in it.
However, I do think it's worth looking at so here's what I plan to do. I will post on this thread every Friday three games at decent prices where i beleive the away team has travelled on the day just to see over a month what kind of percentage I can hit.
Obviously this theory is different because it's placing an emphasis on outside factors rather than totally handicapping a game on the merits of form alone.
If there is an edge to be found it could be another tool for winning money on games that bookmakers have historically taken little time over because of the sheer amount of games that now need to be priced up.
I'll post three tommorow.
In the lower two divisions of the Football League in England (one and two, formerly two & three), many clubs are struggling for money, some are really close to going out of buisness. Somehow they manage to survive but there is an ongoing cost cutting regime in progress at a lot of these clubs that has become incredible.
These cost cutting measures have got so severe at a lot of clubs, they are now travelling long distances on a bus on the morning of the game to save the cost of an overnight hotel for the team.
Example: Last Saturday, AFC Bournemouth travelled to Port Vale on the morning of the game, 240 miles. They lost 3-1.
That is just one example, there are a few more, but as yet I haven't researched it enough to see if there is an edge to be gained or not by backing home teams who will be playing a team that has travelled 'on the day.' Obviously if the home team is -200 it doesn't matter how the away team travelled, they'll probably lose because they're not as good as the team they're playing anyway, I'm looking at home teams who are mid-table but will be playing another mid-table team that has travelled on the day, thus ensuring a nice price.
To me, it stands to reason that, if you have two evenly matched teams but one has sat on a bus for four hours, the team that didn't sit on the bus must have some sort of edge....or maybe not, that's what I plan to find out, maybe I'm completely wrong and there's nothng in it.
However, I do think it's worth looking at so here's what I plan to do. I will post on this thread every Friday three games at decent prices where i beleive the away team has travelled on the day just to see over a month what kind of percentage I can hit.
Obviously this theory is different because it's placing an emphasis on outside factors rather than totally handicapping a game on the merits of form alone.
If there is an edge to be found it could be another tool for winning money on games that bookmakers have historically taken little time over because of the sheer amount of games that now need to be priced up.
I'll post three tommorow.
