Destroy the Books! *Expected Value*

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  • dj_destroyer
    SBR MVP
    • 07-28-10
    • 3856

    #1
    Destroy the Books! *Expected Value*
    This journal will be to test the handicapping theory that if one can systematically obtain positive expected value, you have a successful betting system. I will try to do this in several ways including but not limited to: situational analysis, trend forecasting, predicting line movement, beating the closing and/or generally obtained line, various distributions/rankings, and any other tip, trick, tool or method that is deemed accurate and efficient in obtaining positive expected value. Full Kelly will incorporate the odds into the sizing of wagers; starting bankroll is 5k. Hope you enjoy math!

    0-0
    $5000
    $0

    Play: Drexel -3.5 [-107] 2.32% -116.00 to win 108.41
    Win Probability: 52.81%
    Expected Growth: 0.05%

    Play: Jets [+138] 10.87% -543.50 to win 750.03
    Win Probability: 48.32%
    Expected Growth: 1.63%
  • YouMama
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-04-12
    • 727

    #2
    how do u come up with the bet sizes?
    Comment
    • dj_destroyer
      SBR MVP
      • 07-28-10
      • 3856

      #3
      Originally posted by YouMama
      how do u come up with the bet sizes?
      I use a sport-specific formula consisting of various indexes and metrics derived from my aforementioned capping techniques to calculate my win probability. I then apply full Kelly Criterion to these probabilities.
      Comment
      • MonkeyF0cker
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 06-12-07
        • 12144

        #4
        This doesn't belong here.
        Comment
        • dj_destroyer
          SBR MVP
          • 07-28-10
          • 3856

          #5
          Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker
          This doesn't belong here.
          The sub-heading for the "Handicapper Think Tank" is Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math which is all covered in my introductory post.
          Comment
          • mathdotcom
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-24-08
            • 11689

            #6
            What is the difference between what you're doing and recording the results of coin flips to test the theory that you can't profit betting heads/tails if they're dealt at -110?
            Comment
            • dj_destroyer
              SBR MVP
              • 07-28-10
              • 3856

              #7
              Originally posted by mathdotcom
              What is the difference between what you're doing and recording the results of coin flips to test the theory that you can't profit betting heads/tails if they're dealt at -110?
              A little bit of mojo and a lot of knowledge.
              Comment
              • MonkeyF0cker
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 06-12-07
                • 12144

                #8
                Go away.
                Comment
                • dj_destroyer
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-28-10
                  • 3856

                  #9
                  Play: Wizards/76ers U185.5 [-108] 3.05% -152.50 to win 141.20
                  Win Probability: 53.39%
                  Expected Growth: 0.09%
                  Comment
                  • samserif
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 09-19-11
                    • 63

                    #10
                    Originally posted by dj_destroyer
                    The sub-heading for the "Handicapper Think Tank" is Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math which is all covered in my introductory post.
                    I see numbers but I don't see math.
                    Comment
                    • dj_destroyer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-28-10
                      • 3856

                      #11
                      Originally posted by samserif
                      I see numbers but I don't see math.
                      I have crafted a different formula for each different sport that I wager in, based on what I said in my first post. These calculations are done in an excel spreadsheet and then I just plug the values into Kelly Criterion. Hope this helps.
                      Comment
                      • Rich Boy
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-01-09
                        • 9714

                        #12
                        Dont think systems are allowed in the think tank

                        And without showing how you come up with your win probability this thread is pointless
                        Comment
                        • dj_destroyer
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-28-10
                          • 3856

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Rich Boy
                          Dont think systems are allowed in the think tank

                          And without showing how you come up with your win probability this thread is pointless
                          Why is everyone a police officer? If you don't want to read, move on. Besides, the moderators define a system as any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. This isn't a system as it does take into account the spread/money line. It's mostly an experiment that is open to debate and discussion. We should all collaborate and share ideas about the application of probability theory to sports betting.
                          Comment
                          • dj_destroyer
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-28-10
                            • 3856

                            #14
                            Originally posted by dj_destroyer

                            0-0
                            $5000
                            $0

                            Play: Drexel -3.5 [-107] 2.32% -116.00 to win 108.41
                            Win Probability: 52.81%
                            Expected Growth: 0.05%

                            Play: Jets [+138] 10.87% -543.50 to win 750.03
                            Win Probability: 48.32%
                            Expected Growth: 1.63%
                            1-1
                            $4564.91
                            -$435.09

                            Play: Wizards/76ers U185.5 [-108] 3.05% -152.50 to win 141.20
                            Win Probability: 53.39%
                            Expected Growth: 0.09%
                            Comment
                            • sharpcat
                              Restricted User
                              • 12-19-09
                              • 4516

                              #15
                              This thread does not belong in the think tank.

                              First off you are not discussing any of the logic behind how you are making your picks.

                              Second you seem to have a problem understanding the difference between EV and EG.

                              Third you are past posting plays long after the line has moved in your favor. Wizards U185.5 was not available since 4:10 p.m. and you posted this play at 11:39 p.m. after the line had dropped all the way to 182.5.


                              Mods move this thread to the service plays forum!!!!
                              Comment
                              • dj_destroyer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-28-10
                                • 3856

                                #16
                                Originally posted by sharpcat
                                This thread does not belong in the think tank.

                                First off you are not discussing any of the logic behind how you are making your picks.

                                Second you seem to have a problem understanding the difference between EV and EG.

                                Third you are past posting plays long after the line has moved in your favor. Wizards U185.5 was not available since 4:10 p.m. and you posted this play at 11:39 p.m. after the line had dropped all the way to 182.5.


                                Mods move this thread to the service plays forum!!!!
                                I'm simply tracking the results right now. If anything comes of it, I'll for sure go through each formula with you but it'll simply be a waste of time otherwise. I also try to post plays here as quick as possible as to when I make them, at the current line given.
                                Comment
                                • buby74
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 06-08-10
                                  • 92

                                  #17
                                  It is a waste of time posting picks in this forum. We are interested in your approaches and formulas not tracking your daily progress. You might have an ok approach that could be improved by discussion on this forum. But I guess we will never find out.
                                  Comment
                                  • dj_destroyer
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-28-10
                                    • 3856

                                    #18
                                    OK, I will (time permitting) go through various metrics, techniques, methods, etc. as I move along and open them up to debate and criticism. We can chip away at it.
                                    Comment
                                    • MonkeyF0cker
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 06-12-07
                                      • 12144

                                      #19
                                      How about you just die instead?
                                      Comment
                                      • dj_destroyer
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-28-10
                                        • 3856

                                        #20
                                        Play: Evansville -4.5 [-110] 3.63% -165.71 to win 150.65
                                        Win Probability: 54.11%
                                        Expected Growth: 0.12%
                                        Comment
                                        • dj_destroyer
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-28-10
                                          • 3856

                                          #21
                                          Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
                                          Win Probability: 2.54%
                                          Expected Growth: 0.73%
                                          Comment
                                          • dj_destroyer
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-28-10
                                            • 3856

                                            #22
                                            I was originally only going to post wagers above 2% but I'm going to change that to 1% to allow for more plays to build a bigger database quicker, as well as already having included the Raonic pick which was below 2%.

                                            Play: South Florida [+121] 1.17% -53.41 to 64.63
                                            Win Probability: 45.89%
                                            Expected Growth: 0.02%

                                            Play: Illinois State [+137] 1.03% -47.02 to win 64.42
                                            Win Probability: 42.79%
                                            Expected Growth: 0.01%

                                            Play: Missouri State [+231] 1.33% -60.71 to win 140.24
                                            Win Probability: 31.14%
                                            Expected Growth: 0.04%

                                            Play: Panthers [-108] 1.53% -69.84 to win 64.67
                                            Win Probability: 52.66%
                                            Expected Growth: 0.02%

                                            Play: Nuggets [+145] 1.00% -45.65 to win 66.19
                                            Win Probability: 41.41%
                                            Expected Growth: 0.01%
                                            Comment
                                            • kfranz31
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-09-10
                                              • 1186

                                              #23
                                              i havet ried several systems myself....and i look forward to some one with a new formula...u never know til you try if it works and makes money go with..good luck hope this works
                                              Comment
                                              • dj_destroyer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-28-10
                                                • 3856

                                                #24
                                                Play: Samford [+135] 9.48% -449.19 to win 606.41
                                                Win Probability: 48.00%
                                                Expected Growth: 1.21%
                                                Comment
                                                • dj_destroyer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-28-10
                                                  • 3856

                                                  #25
                                                  Play: Jets [-104] 2.24% -106.14 to win 101.09
                                                  Win Probability: 52.31%
                                                  Expected Growth: 0.05%
                                                  Comment
                                                  • dj_destroyer
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-28-10
                                                    • 3856

                                                    #26
                                                    Play: Pacers -3 [-105] 1.54% -72.97 to win 69.50
                                                    Win Probability: 51.97%
                                                    Expected Growth: 0.02%
                                                    Comment
                                                    • dj_destroyer
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-28-10
                                                      • 3856

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by dj_destroyer
                                                      1-1
                                                      $4564.91
                                                      -$435.09

                                                      Play: Wizards/76ers U185.5 [-108] 3.05% -152.50 to win 141.20
                                                      Win Probability: 53.39%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.09%

                                                      Play: Evansville -4.5 [-110] 3.63% -165.71 to win 150.65
                                                      Win Probability: 54.11%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.12%

                                                      Play: South Florida [+121] 1.17% -53.41 to 64.63
                                                      Win Probability: 45.89%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.02%

                                                      Play: Illinois State [+137] 1.03% -47.02 to win 64.42
                                                      Win Probability: 42.79%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.01%

                                                      Play: Missouri State [+231] 1.33% -60.71 to win 140.24
                                                      Win Probability: 31.14%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.04%

                                                      Play: Panthers [-108] 1.53% -69.84 to win 64.67
                                                      Win Probability: 52.66%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.02%

                                                      Play: Nuggets [+145] 1.00% -45.65 to win 66.19
                                                      Win Probability: 41.41%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.01%
                                                      3-6
                                                      $4199.95
                                                      -$800.05

                                                      Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
                                                      Win Probability: 2.54%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.73%

                                                      Play: Samford [+135] 9.48% -449.19 to win 606.41
                                                      Win Probability: 48.00%
                                                      Expected Growth: 1.21%

                                                      Play: Jets [-104] 2.24% -106.14 to win 101.09
                                                      Win Probability: 52.31%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.05%

                                                      Play: Pacers -3 [-105] 1.54% -72.97 to win 69.50
                                                      Win Probability: 51.97%
                                                      Expected Growth: 0.02%
                                                      Comment
                                                      • dj_destroyer
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 07-28-10
                                                        • 3856

                                                        #28
                                                        Play: CS Northridge -8 [-111] 3.64% -152.88 to win 137.73
                                                        Win Probability: 54.33%
                                                        Expected Growth: 0.12%

                                                        Play: 49ers [+146] 2.36% -99.12 to win 144.72
                                                        Win Probability: 42.05%
                                                        Expected Growth: 0.08%
                                                        Comment
                                                        • CanuckG
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-23-10
                                                          • 21978

                                                          #29
                                                          Care to explain this formula because doubt anyone cares what your picks are if they don't know how you came up with them
                                                          Comment
                                                          • dj_destroyer
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-28-10
                                                            • 3856

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by CanuckG
                                                            Care to explain this formula because doubt anyone cares what your picks are if they don't know how you came up with them
                                                            Which is different from your thread, how?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Rich Boy
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 02-01-09
                                                              • 9714

                                                              #31
                                                              How come you are not tracking what the line closes at? That will show if you are getting good numbers or not
                                                              Comment
                                                              • dj_destroyer
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-28-10
                                                                • 3856

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Rich Boy
                                                                How come you are not tracking what the line closes at? That will show if you are getting good numbers or not
                                                                The closing lines aren't always the sharpest. If I trust my capping techniques (which I do) then all I need to know is that I'm getting a +EV opportunity. If I notice the line goes away from my bet, I just add more wagers.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Jaug
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-11-09
                                                                  • 3087

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by dj_destroyer
                                                                  The closing lines aren't always the sharpest. If I trust my capping techniques (which I do) then all I need to know is that I'm getting a +EV opportunity. If I notice the line goes away from my bet, I just add more wagers.
                                                                  The closing line is the sharpest. The closing line has the highest limits at pinny. The closing line is not interesting to the big players as it is sharp.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • dj_destroyer
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 07-28-10
                                                                    • 3856

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Jaug
                                                                    The closing line is the sharpest. The closing line has the highest limits at pinny. The closing line is not interesting to the big players as it is sharp.
                                                                    It's also seen the most amount of action... so it's easy to assume it's the sharpest; and most often it is. But there's also sometimes when a sharp player wants the reverse line movement, for various reasons.

                                                                    I mean I don't track the closers per se but I'm always watching lines and watching games and comparing everything. But when comparing the closers to my lines specifically, I feel that micro-tweaking will probably hurt me in the long run; I just have to stay the course as long as I maintain in good faith that it's +EV.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • CanuckG
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 12-23-10
                                                                      • 21978

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by dj_destroyer

                                                                      Which is different from your thread, how?
                                                                      Don't have a formula but we're winning...you have all these % people wanna know about.
                                                                      Comment
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