Destroy the Books! Expected Value

dj_destroyer · 01-14-12, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by CanuckG

Don't have a formula but we're winning...you have all these % people wanna know about.

People wanted to know in the Think Tank where this belongs... This stuff is way beyond Player Talk. Explaining Kelly to these people would be completely useless for 90% of Players Talk and that's the easiest and most simple part.

dj_destroyer · 01-15-12, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

3-6
$4199.95
-$800.05

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Samford [+135] 9.48% -449.19 to win 606.41

Win Probability: 48.00%
Expected Growth: 1.21%

Play: Jets [-104] 2.24% -106.14 to win 101.09

Win Probability: 52.31%
Expected Growth: 0.05%

Play: Pacers -3 [-105] 1.54% -72.97 to win 69.50

Win Probability: 51.97%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: CS Northridge -8 [-111] 3.64% -152.88 to win 137.73

Win Probability: 54.33%
Expected Growth: 0.12%

Play: 49ers [+146] 2.36% -99.12 to win 144.72

Win Probability: 42.05%
Expected Growth: 0.08%

6-8
$4761.56
-$238.44

Play: Hurricanes/Capitals U5.5 [-108] 6.88% -327.60 to win 303.33
Win Probability: 55.23%
Expected Growth: 0.44%

Play: Spurs -8 [-109] 3.92% -186.65 to win 171.24
Win Probability: 54.03%
Expected Growth: 0.14%

Play: Cleveland State [+103] 1.46% -69.52 to win 71.61
Win Probability: 50.00%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

dj_destroyer · 01-15-12, 02:40 PM

Play: USC [+118] 1.64% -78.09 to win 92.15
Win Probability: 46.76%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Glitch · 01-15-12, 02:41 PM

they just mean that your varying percentage determination methods pervert this trial as an 'experiment'

but as a data collection journal to log both your handicapping ability and also the benefits of taking good odds.

nice thread. goodluck.

dj_destroyer · 01-15-12, 03:28 PM

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

AlwaysDrawing · 01-15-12, 05:37 PM

How has this thread not been moved yet? Mods?

Scooter · 01-15-12, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

I just wasted few minutes looking at this.

I agree with everyone else (except you) - the thread is pointless and useless.

Track it privately.

dj_destroyer - "People wanted to know in the Think Tank where this belongs... This stuff is way beyond Player Talk. Explaining Kelly to these people would be completely useless for 90% of Players Talk and that's the easiest and most simple part."

This thread is even worse than a typical Player Talk thread.

dj_destroyer · 01-16-12, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

6-8
$4761.56
-$238.44

Play: Hurricanes/Capitals U5.5 [-108] 6.88% -327.60 to win 303.33

Win Probability: 55.23%
Expected Growth: 0.44%

Play: Spurs -8 [-109] 3.92% -186.65 to win 171.24

Win Probability: 54.03%
Expected Growth: 0.14%

Play: Cleveland State [+103] 1.46% -69.52 to win 71.61

Win Probability: 50.00%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: USC [+118] 1.64% -78.09 to win 92.15

Win Probability: 46.76%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

8-10
$5088.52
+$88.52

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

New Plays:

Play: Memphis Grizzlies +4 [-110] 1.99% -101.26 to win 92.05
Win Probability: 53.33%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

Play: Marquette -4.5 [-110] 1.49% -75.82 to win 68.93
Win Probability: 53.09%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nashville Predators/New York Islanders U5.5 [-128] 1.89% -96.17 to win 75.13
Win Probability: 56.97%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Detroit Red Wings -1.5 [+134] 1.23% -62.59 to win 83.87
Win Probability: 43.44%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Buffalo Sabres/Detroit Red Wings O5.5 [+113] 1.38% -70.22 to win 79.35
Win Probability: 47.68%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

dj_destroyer · 01-16-12, 10:23 AM

Play: Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 [-108] 1.00% -50.89 to win 47.12
Win Probability: 53.33%
Expected Growth: 0.08%

Play: Marquette -4 [-110] 1.00% -50.89 to win 46.26
Win Probability: 53.09%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

dj_destroyer · 01-16-12, 06:41 PM

Play: Celtics [+135] 2.50% -127.21 to win 171.73
Win Probability: 43.99%
Expected Growth: 0.08%

Play: Jets [+160] 1.05% -53.43 to win 85.49
Win Probability: 39.11%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Syracuse -13 [-106] 1.02% -51.90 to win 48.96
Win Probability: 51.95%
Expected Growth: 0.01%

antifoil · 01-16-12, 07:07 PM

sad to see this thread moved.

i always like a thread that gets the dickheads in the think tank in a frenzy.

dj_destroyer · 01-17-12, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

8-10
$5088.52
+$88.52

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

New Plays:

Play: Memphis Grizzlies +4 [-110] 1.99% -101.26 to win 92.05

Win Probability: 53.33%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

Play: Marquette -4.5 [-110] 1.49% -75.82 to win 68.93

Win Probability: 53.09%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nashville Predators/New York Islanders U5.5 [-128] 1.89% -96.17 to win 75.13

Win Probability: 56.97%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Detroit Red Wings -1.5 [+134] 1.23% -62.59 to win 83.87

Win Probability: 43.44%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Buffalo Sabres/Detroit Red Wings O5.5 [+113] 1.38% -70.22 to win 79.35

Win Probability: 47.68%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 [-108] 1.00% -50.89 to win 47.12

Win Probability: 53.33%
Expected Growth: 0.08%

Play: Marquette -4 [-110] 1.00% -50.89 to win 46.26

Win Probability: 53.09%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Celtics [+135] 2.50% -127.21 to win 171.73

Win Probability: 43.99%
Expected Growth: 0.08%

Play: Jets [+160] 1.05% -53.43 to win 85.49

Win Probability: 39.11%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Syracuse -13 [-106] 1.02% -51.90 to win 48.96

Win Probability: 51.95%
Expected Growth: 0.01%

15-13
$5338.04
+$338.04

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

New Plays:

Play: Red Wings/Stars O5.5 [-107] 2.69% -143.59 to win 134.20
Win Probability: 52.99%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: LA Kings [+164] 1.10% -58.72 to win 96.30
Win Probability: 38.56%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nuggets/Bucks O200.5 [-110] 2.69% -143.59 to win 130.54
Win Probability: 53.66%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Bobcats +12 [-110] 1.53% -81.67 to win 74.25
Win Probability: 53.11%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Michigan +2 [-109] 1.58% -84.34 to win 77.38
Win Probability: 52.91%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Oklahoma -13.5 [-110] 1.55% -82.74 to win 75.22
Win Probability: 53.12%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

dj_destroyer · 01-17-12, 01:19 AM

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

dj_destroyer · 01-17-12, 02:02 PM

Play: Oklahoma -12 [-105] 2.35% -125.44 to win 119.47
Win Probability: 53.12%
Expected Growth: 0.14%

Play: Nuggets/Bucks O197.5 [-104] 2.78% -148.40 to win 142.69
Win Probability: 53.66%
Expected Growth: 0.29%

SiX111 · 01-17-12, 02:06 PM

I'm also taking that Nuggets Bucks play.

dj_destroyer · 01-18-12, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

15-13
$5338.04
+$338.04

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Red Wings/Stars O5.5 [-107] 2.69% -143.59 to win 134.20

Win Probability: 52.99%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: LA Kings [+164] 1.10% -58.72 to win 96.30

Win Probability: 38.56%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nuggets/Bucks O200.5 [-110] 2.69% -143.59 to win 130.54

Win Probability: 53.66%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Bobcats +12 [-110] 1.53% -81.67 to win 74.25

Win Probability: 53.11%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Michigan +2 [-109] 1.58% -84.34 to win 77.38

Win Probability: 52.91%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Oklahoma -13.5 [-110] 1.55% -82.74 to win 75.22

Win Probability: 53.12%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Oklahoma -12 [-105] 2.35% -125.44 to win 119.47

Win Probability: 53.12%
Expected Growth: 0.14%

Play: Nuggets/Bucks O197.5 [-104] 2.78% -148.40 to win 142.69

Win Probability: 53.66%
Expected Growth: 0.29%

19-17
$5233.30
+$233.30

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Sabres [+190] 1.13% -59.14 to win 112.37
Win Probability: 35.22%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nets -1.5 [-110] 1.99% -104.14 to win 94.67
Win Probability: 53.33%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

Play: Trailblazers [+114] 1.71% -89.49 to win 102.02
Win Probability: 47.64%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Missouri State +2.5 [-110] 1.30% -68.03 to win 61.85
Win Probability: 53.00%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nebraska +5 [-110] 1.59% -83.21 to win 75.65
Win Probability: 53.14%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: New Mexico -8.5 [-110] 1.87% -97.86 to win 88.96
Win Probability: 53.27%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

dj_destroyer · 01-19-12, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

19-17
$5233.30
+$233.30

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Sabres [+190] 1.13% -59.14 to win 112.37

Win Probability: 35.22%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nets -1.5 [-110] 1.99% -104.14 to win 94.67

Win Probability: 53.33%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

Play: Trailblazers [+114] 1.71% -89.49 to win 102.02

Win Probability: 47.64%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Missouri State +2.5 [-110] 1.30% -68.03 to win 61.85

Win Probability: 53.00%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Nebraska +5 [-110] 1.59% -83.21 to win 75.65

Win Probability: 53.14%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: New Mexico -8.5 [-110] 1.87% -97.86 to win 88.96

Win Probability: 53.27%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

22-20
$5218.98
+$218.98

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Valencia/Levante O2.5 [-110] 2.81% -146.65 to win 133.32
Win Probability: 53.72%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Hornets +10.5 [-110] 2.04% -106.47 to win 96.79
Win Probability: 53.35%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

Play: Oregon -6.5 [-106] 1.90% -99.16 to win 93.55
Win Probability: 52.38%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Arkansas LR -3 [-105] 2.60% -135.69 to win 129.23
Win Probability: 52.49%
Expected Growth: 0.06%

Play: Sacramento State +7 [-110] 3.82% -199.37 to win 181.25
Win Probability: 54.20%
Expected Growth: 0.13%

Play: Florida International +6.5 [-105] 2.87% -149.78 to win 142.65
Win Probability: 52.62%
Expected Growth: 0.08%

Play: Senators [+153] 2.39% -124.73 to win 190.84
Win Probability: 40.97%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

dj_destroyer · 01-20-12, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

22-20
$5218.98
+$218.98

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Valencia/Levante O2.5 [-110] 2.81% -146.65 to win 133.32

Win Probability: 53.72%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Hornets +10.5 [-110] 2.04% -106.47 to win 96.79

Win Probability: 53.35%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

Play: Oregon -6.5 [-106] 1.90% -99.16 to win 93.55

Win Probability: 52.38%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Arkansas LR -3 [-105] 2.60% -135.69 to win 129.23

Win Probability: 52.49%
Expected Growth: 0.06%

Play: Sacramento State +7 [-110] 3.82% -199.37 to win 181.25 PUSH
Win Probability: 54.20%
Expected Growth: 0.13%

Play: Florida International +6.5 [-105] 2.87% -149.78 to win 142.65

Win Probability: 52.62%
Expected Growth: 0.08%

Play: Senators [+153] 2.39% -124.73 to win 190.84

Win Probability: 40.97%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

26-22-1
$5547.73
+$547.73

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54
Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Willem (Eerste Divisie) [+120] 1.46% -81.00 to win 97.20
Win Probability: 46.25%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Genk -1 [-183] 5.65% -313.45 to win 171.28
Win Probability: 66.66%
Expected Growth: 0.17%

Play: Capitals/Hurricanes U5.5 [-110] 3.99% -221.35 to win 201.23
Win Probability: 54.28%
Expected Growth: 0.14%

Play: Atlanta Hawks +6.5 [-115] 1.81% -100.41 to win 91.28
Win Probability: 54.33%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

dj_destroyer · 01-21-12, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

26-22-1
$5547.73
+$547.73

Penders:

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6552] 1.05% -47.93 to win 3140.37

Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.73%

Play: Milos Raonic to win ATP Australian Open 2012 [+6826] 1.11% -52.85 to win 3607.54

Win Probability: 2.54%
Expected Growth: 0.84%

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Willem (Eerste Divisie) [+120] 1.46% -81.00 to win 97.20

Win Probability: 46.25%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Genk -1 [-183] 5.65% -313.45 to win 171.28 PUSH
Win Probability: 66.66%
Expected Growth: 0.17%

Play: Capitals/Hurricanes U5.5 [-110] 3.99% -221.35 to win 201.23

Win Probability: 54.28%
Expected Growth: 0.14%

Play: Atlanta Hawks +6.5 [-115] 1.81% -100.41 to win 91.28

Win Probability: 54.33%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

27-26-2
$5466.77
+$466.77

Penders:

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Creighton -10 [-105] 1.66% -90.75 to win 86.43
Win Probability: 52.03%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

dj_destroyer · 01-21-12, 03:17 PM

Play: Nebraska +11.5 [-111] 1.42% -77.63 to win 69.94
Win Probability: 53.28%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

SportsMushroom · 01-21-12, 03:42 PM

I dont like being an azzhole but I dont think pender is a real word, which is ironic because this thread was created in the think tank

anyhowz good luck on your plays, you seem to know what you are doing, if pender catches on you'll be the one that coined it

dj_destroyer · 01-21-12, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by SportsMushroom

I dont like being an azzhole but I dont think pender is a real word, which is ironic because this thread was created in the think tank

anyhowz good luck on your plays, you seem to know what you are doing, if pender catches on you'll be the one that coined it

Slang around here with my boys. We have a provincial-run sportsbook that is mandatory parlays so we often have pending tickets throughout a given night or over the course of a few days, so we use the term "penders" as a noun.

SportsMushroom · 01-21-12, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

Slang around here with my boys. We have a provincial-run sportsbook that is mandatory parlays so we often have pending tickets throughout a given night or over the course of a few days, so we use the term "penders" as a noun.

cool

dj_destroyer · 01-22-12, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

27-26-2
$5466.77
+$466.77

Penders:

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Creighton -10 [-105] 1.66% -90.75 to win 86.43
Win Probability: 52.03%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Nebraska +11.5 [-111] 1.42% -77.63 to win 69.94
Win Probability: 53.28%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

28-27-2
$5475.57
+$475.57

Penders:

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78
Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Loyola-Maryland -12 [-110] 1.57% -85.97 to win 78.15
Win Probability: 53.13%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Capitals/Penguins U5.5 [-125] 1.38% -75.56 to win 60.45
Win Probability: 56.17%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Teamprofit101 · 01-22-12, 02:54 PM

Nice thread!!!

dj_destroyer · 01-23-12, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

28-27-2
$5475.57
+$475.57

Penders:

Play: Giants +3 [-115] 3.27% -174.55 to win 151.78

Win Probability: 55.01%
Expected Growth: 0.09%

New Plays:

Play: Loyola-Maryland -12 [-110] 1.57% -85.97 to win 78.15

Win Probability: 53.13%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

Play: Capitals/Penguins U5.5 [-125] 1.38% -75.56 to win 60.45

Win Probability: 56.17%
Expected Growth: 0.02%

29-29-2
$5465.82
+$465.82

New Plays:

Play: Iona -10 [-110] 3.32% -181.47 to win 164.97
Win Probability: 53.96%
Expected Growth: 0.10%

Play: Cincinnati +5.5 [-110] 1.80% -98.38 to win 89.44
Win Probability: 53.24%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Loyola-Marymount [+108] 1.78% -97.29 to win 105.07
Win Probability: 49.00%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

dj_destroyer · 01-24-12, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

29-29-2
$5465.82
+$465.82

New Plays:

Play: Iona -10 [-110] 3.32% -181.47 to win 164.97

Win Probability: 53.96%
Expected Growth: 0.10%

Play: Cincinnati +5.5 [-110] 1.80% -98.38 to win 89.44

Win Probability: 53.24%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

Play: Loyola-Marymount [+108] 1.78% -97.29 to win 105.07

Win Probability: 49.00%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

30-31-2
$5291.04
+$291.04

New Plays:

Play: Purdue -5 [-106] 2.69% -142.33 to win 134.27
Win Probability: 52.76%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Akron [+111] 1.61% -85.19 to win 94.56
Win Probability: 48.24%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

dj_destroyer · 01-25-12, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

30-31-2
$5291.04
+$291.04

New Plays:

Play: Purdue -5 [-106] 2.69% -142.33 to win 134.27

Win Probability: 52.76%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Akron [+111] 1.61% -85.19 to win 94.56

Win Probability: 48.24%
Expected Growth: 0.03%

31-32-2
$5243.27
+$243.27

New Plays:

Play: Union Espanola -1 [+109] 4.13% -216.55 to win 236.04
Win Probability: 50.00%
Expected Growth: 0.19%

Play: Cercle Brugge 'pk' [+121] 2.29% -120.07 to win 145.28
Win Probability: 46.50%
Expected Growth: 0.06%

Play: Beerschot +0.5 [-101] 3.58% -187.71 to win 185.85
Win Probability: 52.03%
Expected Growth: 0.13%

Play: Western Michigan +11 [-110] 3.63% -190.33 to win 173.03
Win Probability: 54.11%
Expected Growth: 0.12%

Play: St. Bonaventure -5 [-110] 1.24% -65.02 to win 59.11
Win Probability: 52.97%
Expected Growth: 0.01%

Play: Canadiens [+150] 2.23% -116.92 to win 175.38
Win Probability: 41.34%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Cavaliers [+136] 2.23% -116.92 to win 159.01
Win Probability: 43.66%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Warriors -3 [-110] 1.24% -65.02 to win 59.11
Win Probability: 52.97%
Expected Growth: 0.01%

dj_destroyer · 01-25-12, 07:36 PM

Play: UNLV/Boise State U147 [-108] 2.24% -117.45 to win 108.75
Win Probability: 53.00%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

dj_destroyer · 01-26-12, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

31-32-2
$5243.27
+$243.27

New Plays:

Play: Union Espanola -1 [+109] 4.13% -216.55 to win 236.04 PUSH
Win Probability: 50.00%
Expected Growth: 0.19%

Play: Cercle Brugge 'pk' [+121] 2.29% -120.07 to win 145.28 PUSH
Win Probability: 46.50%
Expected Growth: 0.06%

Play: Beerschot +0.5 [-101] 3.58% -187.71 to win 185.85

Win Probability: 52.03%
Expected Growth: 0.13%

Play: Western Michigan +11 [-110] 3.63% -190.33 to win 173.03

Win Probability: 54.11%
Expected Growth: 0.12%

Play: St. Bonaventure -5 [-110] 1.24% -65.02 to win 59.11

Win Probability: 52.97%
Expected Growth: 0.01%

Play: Canadiens [+150] 2.23% -116.92 to win 175.38

Win Probability: 41.34%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Cavaliers [+136] 2.23% -116.92 to win 159.01

Win Probability: 43.66%
Expected Growth: 0.07%

Play: Warriors -3 [-110] 1.24% -65.02 to win 59.11

Win Probability: 52.97%
Expected Growth: 0.01%

Play: UNLV/Boise State U147 [-108] 2.24% -117.45 to win 108.75

Win Probability: 53.00%
Expected Growth: 0.04%

36-34-4
$5563.75
+$563.75

New Plays:

Play: Patriots -2.5 [-115] 8.13% -452.33 to win 393.33
Win Probability: 57.27%
Expected Growth: 0.57%

Play: Davidson -7.5 [-105] 5.74% -319.36 to win 304.15
Win Probability: 54.02%
Expected Growth: 0.31%

Play: Grizzlies +3.5 [-105] 2.28% -126.85 to win 120.81
Win Probability: 52.33%
Expected Growth: 0.05%

dj_destroyer · 01-27-12, 06:55 PM

Play: Niagara [+134] 12.69% -706.04 to win 946.09
Win Probability: 50.00%
Expected Growth: 2.16%

Play: Cavs lead at half/win game [-105] 1.60% -89.02 to win 84.78
Win Probability: 52.00%
Expected Growth: 0.02

Destroy the Books! *Expected Value*

Destroy the Books! Expected Value