Alabama

[PAULYPOKER]

I'm all over alabama.

There's the real LB,where have you been my long lost pal..........

[sandman0713]

Yes and No. The game never reached that level because the defenses held out on both sides, and all the way through it was a FG game. A big offensive play or a defensive score to put one team ahead by a TD in the first quarter can change everything in how the teams approach the rest of the game.

Not that I'm suggesting the Over is a play here. I still think we're talking about a relatively low scoring game, but when you get cut early in a fight, your tactics have to change as you can no longer afford to play to a preventative game when behind. I was surprised not to see a TD in the first game, and would be shocked not to see at least one tonight.

Something like 13-6 / 16-10 for LSU

i expect a td as well...actually about 3 of them. 21-3 lsu is my guess. i have read where most feel they are better in special teams...but i feel lsu is better in every aspect of the game, have went undefeated with a schedule that is worlds above what bama played, and have a loose and funny coach to keep them at ease...and he is willing to take chances. maybe i am a dumbass...but i just don't see the same explosive athletes on the bama side. anyways...gl all. time for bedlam almost here...lol.

[thetrinity]

love the special teams defensive td prop myself. one of these defenses or kick returners will make a big play on a fast track.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

love the special teams defensive td prop myself. one of these defenses or kick returners will make a big play on a fast track.

[PR9]

Paco & NOCOIN what you make about this analysis from 4seasons on another thread re: bodog's line....seems to make sense to me...

"The lure to buy or tease the LSU +2 is done in an effort to save what the Book pays out when LSU wins by 2 scores. Some will figure 2 points could be the difference, and will pay -110. Others will be lured to buy a point or so to make it +3 or +3.5, which will cost you like -130 or -140. Others will be lured to the tease, so they can make it +8, which again will cost you more juice. The Book much rather pay out on -110, -130, -140, than paying out on +120. The Book figures if you take Bama -2 or the -140 ML, buy points or tease Bama, isn't going to do you any good when LSU wins by 2 scores. All the Bama bets then lose. It's truly genius when the Book thinks LSU will win by 2 scores, to not give 2 points to Bama, but to make LSU the dog. Only the folks bold enough to take the LSU ML, will have maximized their gains. Though as you can see, many will be lured to taking the points, buying points and teasing in effort to increase their chance of winning. However, they do so by sacrificing winnings, thus reducing what the Book will have to pay out. To repeat, all the Bama bets lose, and if you take LSU and the points, buy points or tease LSU, you'll see that is was pointless to do so and you just reduced your own payout.

Now look at bodog (or bovada whatever), the most conservative Book around. Do you see their line? Do you see how they're not playing the LSU +2 game. Heck no. They have LSU as a pick 'em at -105 right now. So what does that do? Well for one, they're offering you Bama SU at -115, the by far best Bama ML anywhere. Ask yourself, why is the most conservative book offering the best Bama ML? If you like Bama, you're devouring the opportunity to have them SU at -115. Meanwhile, what LSU backer would bet LSU SU @ -105, when you can get 2 points at -110? There's no Book that will let you buy 2 points for 5 cents. A half a point costs 10 cents each. Thus, they're saying with their arms WIDE open, Bama backers welcome, and LSU backers go away.

Now look at the SBR Sportsbook, another highly conservative Book to say the least. Here they already will give you LSU and 2.5, thus making it even more alluring to those who want points (including the buying and teasing). Though they won't give you +120 on the LSU ML if your astute enough to go that way, you'll get +115. So if you buy a half point here to make it LSU +3, it will cost you -130. Risk 130 to make 100 if you have LSU +3. However, if you put that 130 on the ML @ +115, you'd win like 150 instead of just 100. That's an extra $50 payout for every $130 risked. That is HUGE! And that's what the Books are doing here.

Bowl Contest at Heritagesports has one person who has picked every bowl game right so far. This person's pick for tonight ... LSU! There are 9 listed as tied for second place, with 6 of those 9 picking LSU.

Before Backing Bama Better Beware"

This is amazing stuff

[rup]

saban is a much better coach and has more talent with alabama. tide roll tonight!!!!

[rup]

i expect a td as well...actually about 3 of them. 21-3 lsu is my guess. i have read where most feel they are better in special teams...but i feel lsu is better in every aspect of the game, have went undefeated with a schedule that is worlds above what bama played, and have a loose and funny coach to keep them at ease...and he is willing to take chances. maybe i am a dumbass...but i just don't see the same explosive athletes on the bama side. anyways...gl all. time for bedlam almost here...lol.

trent will have over 200 all purpose yards and mathieu wont be able to stop him!!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

trent will have over 200 all purpose yards and mathieu wont be able to stop him!!

LSU did a perfectly fine job limiting Richardson in the first game...

[t-wizzle]

Don't take Bama because of line movement no coin. If you honestly feel like they are the play then that's fine but the line move is b/s.

[suicidekings]

i expect a td as well...actually about 3 of them. 21-3 lsu is my guess. i have read where most feel they are better in special teams...but i feel lsu is better in every aspect of the game, have went undefeated with a schedule that is worlds above what bama played, and have a loose and funny coach to keep them at ease...and he is willing to take chances. maybe i am a dumbass...but i just don't see the same explosive athletes on the bama side. anyways...gl all. time for bedlam almost here...lol.

Your predicted score wouldn't surprise me either. The thing that I find confusing though is the Alabama TT sitting at a juiced Over 21 (-123) at Pinnacle and moved to 22 in other shops. This seems to be a huge false flag to me, as I really can't see big money pushing the Tide's predicted score to 3+ TDs. That's crazy, even for the more square bettors among the Bama backers, and deviates entirely from everything that defines this matchup, regardless of which side a person is on. Makes no sense at all...

[SlickRick1382]

Don't take Bama because of line movement no coin. If you honestly feel like they are the play then that's fine but the line move is b/s.

Really?

So LSU opens up at -1, -1.5, -2 depending on the book and has over 65% of the total bets but the line has moved against them 3.5+ points and you're telling me not to follow line movement? Especially RLM?

I guess everyone here and those articles are head and shoulders above the rest in terms of capping. Not that I'm advocating taking either Alabama or LSU.

Also the Bodog means little when Pinnacle and The Greek are at different numbers. Unless you're telling me Bodog is a sharper book than those two.

[texhooper]

i expect a td as well...actually about 3 of them. 21-3 lsu is my guess. i have read where most feel they are better in special teams...but i feel lsu is better in every aspect of the game, have went undefeated with a schedule that is worlds above what bama played, and have a loose and funny coach to keep them at ease...and he is willing to take chances. maybe i am a dumbass...but i just don't see the same explosive athletes on the bama side. anyways...gl all. time for bedlam almost here...lol.

you are not a dumbass. i get blank looks when i say this, that the caliber of athlete lsu has on defense on average is higher than bama has, and it's noticeable. think about one of the main reasons lsu won the first game. that interception at the 1 is easily one of the best we will see in our entire lives. and i don't even remember who it was, and i'm not alone because no one ever mentions that guy's name when they mention that play. he was just some guy in their secondary making a freak of nature play, ho-hum.

we are the geniuses dude. they are wrong.

[texhooper]

Really?

So LSU opens up at -1, -1.5, -2 depending on the book and has over 65% of the total bets but the line has moved against them 3.5+ points and you're telling me not to follow line movement? Especially RLM?

I guess everyone here and those articles are head and shoulders above the rest in terms of capping. Not that I'm advocating taking either Alabama or LSU.

Also the Bodog means little when Pinnacle and The Greek are at different numbers. Unless you're telling me Bodog is a sharper book than those two.

where were you last year, brother? same shit, different toilet. auburn against razor sharp line movement still somehow managed to win! can you believe it?

[smoke a bowl]

LSU 41 BAMAbitches 10

[JamesBrown]

LSU ML tonight!

[SlickRick1382]

where were you last year, brother? same shit, different toilet. auburn against razor sharp line movement still somehow managed to win! can you believe it?

Last I checked no one hits at 100% a clip so they're bound to get some of the picks wrong. Doesn't mean that those backing Alabama are any less confident in their pick or those backing LSU should be any more confident in theirs. Also doesn't mean that those same people wouldn't make the same bet every time. They play what they perceive to be value.

If that's not the case then there is no way the line moves 4 points the opposite way unless their next play is all in on LSU +2.5 since I don't see the books letting this hit 3.

Either way I wish everyone the best of luck. I'm not advocating taking any side over the other, just saying some of the signs scream pretty loud and probably the best bet anyone can make is to stay away from this game in general.

There are much better games with more value to bet on. I've never been a fan of betting championship games.

[comala57]

Given I hit it huge first few weeks then gave it all back plus some as the season went on. Take what I say with a grain of salt.
As I look at the lead up to this game I remember 1994 season. FSU tied Florida regular season and Florida got a rematch: Florida won in Overtime. Even better example 1996 we beat UF and they romp us in the BCS rematch. In New Orleans for that matter. Rematches scare me the losing team getting a second chance has more to prove.
My gut says LSU 42-27 but I could see Alabama 24-20 as well. No play is the best play for me.

[saratoga1927]

I'm counting on Les Miles to pull out a brazen play from his bag of tricks, a move that will turn out to be a huge play in turning the game forever in his favor. I wish they had a line on Yes or No "Will Les Miles call a trick play?"

[paco]

doesn't really matter if you get bama at -6, -3, or even +3...they are all losers. just about every person on espn telling everyone bama deserves to be there for a month...and they all like bama to win this time. never before have i seen such nonsense. we have a team that went into one of the toughest stadiums in the country to win in and beat bama THIS YEAR...but because bama missed a few long fgs people want to discount it or say it doesn't matter. we have seen this game already...lsu wins. stop trying to outsmart the books...take lsu and the under. even heard someone try to say lsu was the square play...LOL. the source of a square's sports knowledge is clearly espn...who have been telling us for an entire month why this game will be different and bama will win. this is the easiest game in the history of ncaa football to cap. lsu played the tougher schedule and finished undefeated...including a win at bama.

[ksnooksk]

Like I said in another thread Vegas was welcoming LSU backers with open arms.

[zsr]

Sandman what happened

Complete domination by Alabama.

[HOT WINGS]

Fukk yeah Bama! Roll Tide!

[sandman0713]

Sandman what happened

Complete domination by Alabama.

i guess you are looking for congrat's or something? maybe the most boring football game i have ever watched. lsu never once looked into the game or excited to be playing. gonna leave it at that and not be hateful or drag it out. boring football man, no matter how espn tries to spin it. shameful display of football.

[No coincidences]

I know this much: every single time I fade big line movement, I bury myself.

[zsr]

Looking for congrats they got the trophy, wtf do you think they care you thought it was Boring? I'm just showing you how stupid your posts were.

And, I wonder why it was 21-0, oh yea, the best football team in the country dominated both sides of the ball.

[sandman0713]

Looking for congrats they got the trophy, wtf do you think they care you thought it was Boring? I'm just showing you how stupid your posts were.

And, I wonder why it was 21-0, oh yea, the best football team in the country dominated both sides of the ball.

you are treating me like i am an lsu fan...or really care, other than losing money on it. i don't care about either team. most of my posts were debating whether bama deserved to be there or not, based on what they had done this season. they showed up to play and lsu did not...so congrat's to them. it was a really boring game to watch for anyone who is not a bama fan or an sec homer...maybe the worst of the bcs era.

[zsr]

Your earlier post was simply laughable and i pointed out how stupid it was, nothing more. Not sure why you keep saying it was a bad game? If you don't like it, you didn't have to watch

This puts an end to the debate of whether they deserved to be there, what a showing.

[sandman0713]

It will have the highest ratings in the bcs era and it wont be close.

Your earlier post was simply laughable and i pointed out how stupid it was, nothing more. Not sure why you keep saying it was a bad game? If you don't like it, you didn't have to watch

This puts an end to the debate of whether they deserved to be there, what a showing.

dude my company was helping me clean up during the 3rd quarter, and at no point in that game was anyone here excited. it was a letdown if you were not a fan of one of the teams...and that is 100% fact. if it is really the highest rated it is just because nobody actually leaves the house anymore, or there was nothing else on. not trying to take away from bama...they won it, so good for them. i don't know why you make a point of coming after me all the time. go celebrate or something.

[Sam Odom]

sandman , you cant win

Please dont go on and on and on... Thanks

[zsr]

I actually think Texas/USC will still be the highest rated, nvm on that comment. That was the greatest college game of all time. Hard to top.

You made a point of bashing Alabama's team and Alabama backers so of course I had to point out that post you made on the first page. Obviously nobody cares if you and your friends enjoyed it? You didn't have to watch?

Let's leave it at this, no need to keep going back and forth here.

[lakerboy]

Bama was the easiest call of all the bowl games. Anytime a line moves 3 pts or more always take it. Its 65% at least.

[paco]

Bama was the easiest call of all the bowl games. Anytime a line moves 3 pts or more always take it. Its 65% at least.

Bama was easy cuz u know Saban wasn't gonna lose twice in 1 season to les, but the same line movement happened in Oregon last year and Auburn won outright.

[lakerboy]

Paco go and look at all the 3 pt line moves this year.

[lakerboy]

But ur right I would never go against bama in this spot

[Sam Odom]

This gm was a trap (even if you dont believe in them)