Serious Gambling question......

[opie1988]

Ok.....I'm sure everyone has read about that lucky bastard in Vegas who took the Cards at 999-1 to win the World Series. $250 to win $250k. He also already cashed 125k on his $250 ticket for them to win NL pennant.

Here's my question....How exactly would one hedge this WS bet to guarantee a profit? Since the odds are so much worse now, I realize he would need to take Texas, but how exactly do you calculate that?

I know for some this is simple.......but I'm obviously not all that sharp!

Thanks in advance for any enlightenment.

[ngates815]

Go to Vegas for the first game...Wager some on the Rangers to win the series.

Then after they lost the first game, get them at a better price and wager more.


I would probably wager 75K when Rangers were -145 for series...Then when they lost the game 1, wager another 50 or 25K.

[opie1988]

Thanks, Gateser. I was really hoping there was a way I was wasn't aware of beside simply betting the other side for a small profit. Unless this series goes to the Cards favor......your bet would have to be giant on Rangers to return much. Not really worth the small amount you'd grind out to eliminate your chance at turning a 1000-1 profit. That would be a hard one.....

[lemart5]

Opie stop asking questions prick .

[allabout the $$$]

before the series started at odds -145 bet 72500 to win 50 k on the rangers if rangers win u make 50 k if the cards win you still win 170k+ after the loss on the rangers not including the 125 already won on the cards making the ws

[opie1988]

In hindsight......I'd have to agree that this simplicity of this situation makes me look at least slightly retarded.

Just having a hard time wrapping my head around it. I wonder if this guy is like me and only bets on his hometown Cards to win everything. Lucky bastard!

[doublej95]

why would hedge only 250 bucks is the real question. he he did cash that 125k there is no point in it.

[WvGambler]

In hindsight......I'd have to agree that this simplicity of this situation makes me look at least slightly retarded.

Just having a hard time wrapping my head around it. I wonder if this guy is like me and only bets on his hometown Cards to win everything. Lucky bastard!

[allabout the $$$]

why would hedge only 250 bucks is the real question. he he did cash that 125k there is no point in it.

because u can guarantee yourself a minimum profit of 175k off of 500 and a maximum profit of 300 k either way its a great investment myself personally im gonna give myself an extra 50 k profit by hedging texas before the series started knowing the least i can make off of my 500 investment is 174.5k i mean where can you get that type of return over a 6 week time frame

[opie1988]

because u can guarantee yourself a minimum profit of 175k off of 500 and a maximum profit of 300 k either way its a great investment myself personally im gonna give myself an extra 50 k profit by hedging texas before the series started knowing the least i can make off of my 500 investment is 174.5k i mean where can you get that type of return over a 6 week time frame

Excellent stuff allaboutthe$$$!! I can see that you truly are all about the $$$.

Great stuff!!

[allabout the $$$]

Excellent stuff allaboutthe$$$!! I can see that you truly are all about the $$$.

Great stuff!!

well opie with 2 ex wives 3 kids and 1 of them going away to college next year i really dont have much of a choice

[doublej95]

Can the Rangers even win the Series

[mrmarket]

Opie you're so bigtime that 250k is a drop in the bucket to you mang. No need to hedge if you deem it still +EV bet mang.

[opie1988]

Can the Rangers even win the Series

I'm well aware that you're baiting me here......& I refuse to be brought into these childish games.

Besides.....YOU KNOW GODD*M WELL THE RANGERS ARE GOING TO WIN!!.

[nikossf]

Another thought,.since he already won the first bet (125k) Why not take some of that and play individual games but mostly on Texas. This way you would most likely get the lines at what they have been the last two games..-120, -115.. etc..?? Just a thought...

[Deuce]

Don't quit your day job anytime soon.

[opie1988]

Don't quit your day job anytime soon.

No worries about that.

Thanks for weighing in, though.

Literally.

[wtf]

gay

[ngates815]

No worries about that.

Thanks for weighing in, though.


Literally.

[P.F.Kasooff]

If I held the ticket. I would no Nothing. Just wait and see if Tex can win 3 gms

[Deuce]

No worries about that. Thanks for weighing in, though. Literally.

[Blax0r]

Opie, here's what I do for hedging problems:

Initial Position:
Cards: 999-1

Perfect Hedge Bet:
Rangers Series Price: -170, or ~1.59 in decimal odds form

The idea is to 1) set a target "bottom line" number, and 2)figure out the right bet allocations to assure yourself of a profit. The "bottom line" is your total cash position after all bets are resolved (amount won + bet amount).

For fun, let's make our target "bottom line" to be 1590, and try to figure out how much we should bet to get this amount.

Target Bottom Line: 1590

Cards Position: @ 999-1, we will need to place a $ 1.59 bet on this to potentially finish with 1590.
999 * 1.59 (amount won) + 1.59 (bet amount) = 1590 (bottom line).

Rangers Position: @ -170, or .59-1, we need to place a $1000 bet on this to potentially finish with 1590.
.59 * 1000 (amount won) + 1000 (bet amount) = 1590 (bottom line).

So, we know how much we should bet on each position to finish with $1590; what if we bet both positions?

Bets:
1. $1000 on Rangers @ -170 to result in 1590 bottom line.
2. $1.59 on Cards @ 999-1 to result in 1590 bottom line.

Total Risk Amount: $1000 + $1.59 = $1001.59

However, we KNOW that exactly ONE of these bets WILL WIN:

Bottom Line after World Series (in any situation): $1590.
Locked in Profit: $1590 - $1001.59 = 588.41.

So for the guy who put 250 on the Cards, if he wanted to hedge out completely, he should bet 250/1.59*1000 = $157,232.70 (this is just a ratio adjustment of the bets) on the Rangers to guarantee a $92,517.30 profit (just redo the steps above for $250 on cards at $157,232.70 on Rangers).

This is a perfect hedge; if he chooses to bet less than $157,232.70 on the Rangers, he is still exposed to a Texas win (win big if Cards win, win small if the Rangers win). If he chooses to bet more on $157,232.70 on the Rangers, he is exposed to a Cards win (win small if Cards win, win big if Rangers win).

[pokernut9999]

why would hedge only 250 bucks is the real question. he he did cash that 125k there is no point in it.

You are kidding right , it is not about the $250 but the $250,000

I wonder why sportsbooks love you guys

[priskilla22]

Opie, here's what I do for hedging problems:



The idea is to 1) set a target "bottom line" number, and 2)figure out the right bet allocations to assure yourself of a profit. The "bottom line" is your total cash position after all bets are resolved (amount won + bet amount).

For fun, let's make our target "bottom line" to be 1590, and try to figure out how much we should bet to get this amount.



So, we know how much we should bet on each position to finish with $1590; what if we bet both positions?



However, we KNOW that exactly ONE of these bets WILL WIN:



So for the guy who put 250 on the Cards, if he wanted to hedge out completely, he should bet 250/1.59*1000 = $157,232.70 (this is just a ratio adjustment of the bets) on the Rangers to guarantee a $92,517.30 profit (just redo the steps above for $250 on cards at $157,232.70 on Rangers).

This is a perfect hedge; if he chooses to bet less than $157,232.70 on the Rangers, he is still exposed to a Texas win (win big if Cards win, win small if the Rangers win). If he chooses to bet more on $157,232.70 on the Rangers, he is exposed to a Cards win (win small if Cards win, win big if Rangers win).

So he needs to ask himself, what is better, winning 92K guaranteed, or having a 40-45% chance of winning $250,000?

I'd rather take the latter, honestly.

[VegasInsider]

It's such a large hedge amount, he might not have $75K laying around to wager. You would have to show someone with money that potentially winning ticket and borrow it.

[pokernut9999]

It's such a large hedge amount, he might not have $75K laying around to wager. You would have to show someone with money that potentially winning ticket and borrow it.

He already cashed a $125,000 ticket on the league championship

[bobby heenan]

shoulda taken the 125 k after game 1 and put it on texas +115 to win series

[bobby heenan]

He already cashed a $125,000 ticket on the league championship

exactly...125 k is in the bag....to win the nl....done

[Glitch]

So he needs to ask himself, what is better, winning 92K guaranteed, or having a 40-45% chance of winning $250,000?

I'd rather take the latter, honestly.

i think you are forgetting about the middle-ground.

[Glitch]

exactly...125 k is in the bag....to win the nl....done

or whatever portion of 125k that reflected his confidence level/current lean. could ensure a hefty amount of more profit and do-so at his own discretion.

before i opened this thread, i thought it was going to be stupid because hedging that would be really really easy but the thread and is interesting enough.

[opie1988]

Opie, here's what I do for hedging problems:
The idea is to 1) set a target "bottom line" number, and 2)figure out the right bet allocations to assure yourself of a profit. The "bottom line" is your total cash position after all bets are resolved (amount won + bet amount).
For fun, let's make our target "bottom line" to be 1590, and try to figure out how much we should bet to get this amount.
So, we know how much we should bet on each position to finish with $1590; what if we bet both positions?
However, we KNOW that exactly ONE of these bets WILL WIN:
So for the guy who put 250 on the Cards, if he wanted to hedge out completely, he should bet 250/1.59*1000 = $157,232.70 (this is just a ratio adjustment of the bets) on the Rangers to guarantee a $92,517.30 profit (just redo the steps above for $250
on cards at $157,232.70 on Rangers).
This is a perfect hedge; if he chooses to bet less than $157,232.70 on the Rangers, he is still exposed to a Texas win (win big if Cards win, win small if the Rangers win). If he chooses to bet more on $157,232.70 on the Rangers, he is
exposed to a Cards win (win small if Cards win, win big if Rangers win).

Wow!
Blax-

I really appreciate you taking the time to write all this out for me. Very much.

I knew when I wrote this thread that some simpletons like Deuce would come into it and pop-off some smart-ass comment even though the actual answer is clearly waayyy over their bulbous shaped head.

I knew there was a better way of hedging this than simply laying some cash on Texas to win.

Excellent post! Well done, pal.

[Blax0r]

So he needs to ask himself, what is better, winning 92K guaranteed, or having a 40-45% chance of winning $250,000?

I'd rather take the latter, honestly.

That's exactly the right question to ask next; I couldn't agree more.

That being said, even if a particular bet is ridiculously +EV, we must take our bankroll into consideration. There is a theoretical "bet limit" one should take (Kelly Criterion); so I believe the Cards guy should figure out his limit, and hedge out the rest.

As an example, if he is extraordinarily wealthy, it is better for him to just keep the futures bet. However, if his bankroll is only a few thousand, he probably should only be exposed some fraction of that to the futures bet. So hedging out the remainder would be beneficial for him (think tank guys, feel free to correct or clarify)

Wow!
Blax-

I really appreciate you taking the time to write all this out for me. Very much.

I knew when I wrote this thread that some simpletons like Deuce would come into it and pop-off some smart-ass comment even though the actual answer is clearly waayyy over their bulbous shaped head.

I knew there was a better way of hedging this than simply laying some cash on Texas to win.

Excellent post! Well done, pal.

No problem sir; if any step is confusing just point it out. I believe others can reuse this example for all of their futures/parlay bets for proper hedging to match their risk profile.

[Inkwell77]

If I held the ticket. I would no Nothing. Just wait and see if Tex can win 3 gms

While this is generally smart, if Texas were to go up 3-0 you would be in a terrible situation, and if they were to go up 3-1 you would still be in a rough spot. But at the same time if St Louis were to be up 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2 you could make even more money than whatever the original bet paid, while these guys hedging would not have that opportunity.

[GarbageMan]

can any of the math bods here (rickysteve,tomg etc) check if this is right.
if we look at teh current market value of his ticket
then pinny has got the cards @-160 to win the series
which equates to a 61.54% chance.
his potential winnings are 250k
so 61.54%*250000 gives his ticket a market value of $153850
so am i right in saying this ticket is already worth 153850-250=$153600?

[laxbrah420]

1. his potential winnings are 249750
2. -160 is not true odds