What is the best sports gambling literature? One that discusses statistical analysis on buying on/off points in football, betting teasers, betting baseball (RL vs. ML) etc. Any recommendations would be appreciated.
-
-
-
Bodog is awesome !!Comment -
Obviously, someone is misunderstanding the question.
I'd start with Stanford Wong's Sharp Sports Betting...
Comment -
5dimes is no good....they cut ur limits when u start winning!
go to bookmaker, not great for promos but at least ur money is secure and you will get paid!Comment -
Some basics........Never bet the "Junk"......Junk = Parlays, teasers, reverses...etc. Only bet straight wagers and NEVER put weight on them. By weight i mean do not bet different amounts on each game, otherwise you could have a winning record and still lose money. Thats why any of these loser touts that tell you to use their "money management system" and bet their certain units on each game are nothing but TOOLS!!!! Also NEVER lose a game by half of point. No matter the line, if it falls on a half, buy it down or up. In this day and age you should NEVER lose a game by half a point. Just some basic rules i follow and have worked out well for me in my sports betting life. Hope this helped
The IcemanComment -
RE: BASEBALL TOTALS - Can anyone buy a half point for baseball totals?
Campe or anyone else who reads this thread.
Unfortunately, I'm a U.S. Player, so I won't be welcome at most good books.
I know baseball is almost over, but just curious if anyone can buy a half point for baseball totals. I've been using a totals system that I get 3 or 4 pushes every week. It would be nice to avoid the ties, and put more cash in my pocket. Currently using Bookmaker and DSI, both have the same platform, and I don't have the option to buy half points in bases with either book. Both books are great for buying half points or full points when necessary in Football or Basketball Spreads or Totals, but not baseball totals. Thanks in advance for anyone who responds with a solution.
Comment -
With all due respect, some of that is bad advice. Buying points simply to get off of half points will cost you $ in the long run and isn't usually a wise move. And there are certainly teasers that are +EV (same thing if you can a corelated parlay). Many sharp players will also vary the unit size based upon the strength of the bet. That in and of itself is sound money management as long as you're disciplined about the unit sizes.Some basics........Never bet the "Junk"......Junk = Parlays, teasers, reverses...etc. Only bet straight wagers and NEVER put weight on them. By weight i mean do not bet different amounts on each game, otherwise you could have a winning record and still lose money. Thats why any of these loser touts that tell you to use their "money management system" and bet their certain units on each game are nothing but TOOLS!!!! Also NEVER lose a game by half of point. No matter the line, if it falls on a half, buy it down or up. In this day and age you should NEVER lose a game by half a point. Just some basic rules i follow and have worked out well for me in my sports betting life. Hope this helped The IcemanComment -
You basically can at 5Dimes since they'll offer an adjusted total on each game that will get you what you want. However, you're paying so much more in juice that I'd be very surprised if it would work out for you in the long run.RE: BASEBALL TOTALS - Can anyone buy a half point for baseball totals? Campe or anyone else who reads this thread. Unfortunately, I'm a U.S. Player, so I won't be welcome at most good books. I know baseball is almost over, but just curious if anyone can buy a half point for baseball totals. I've been using a totals system that I get 3 or 4 pushes every week. It would be nice to avoid the ties, and put more cash in my pocket. Currently using Bookmaker and DSI, both have the same platform, and I don't have the option to buy half points in bases with either book. Both books are great for buying half points or full points when necessary in Football or Basketball Spreads or Totals, but not baseball totals. Thanks in advance for anyone who responds with a solution.Comment -
This might be one of the worst posts ever on SBR.Some basics........Never bet the "Junk"......Junk = Parlays, teasers, reverses...etc. Only bet straight wagers and NEVER put weight on them. By weight i mean do not bet different amounts on each game, otherwise you could have a winning record and still lose money. Thats why any of these loser touts that tell you to use their "money management system" and bet their certain units on each game are nothing but TOOLS!!!! Also NEVER lose a game by half of point. No matter the line, if it falls on a half, buy it down or up. In this day and age you should NEVER lose a game by half a point. Just some basic rules i follow and have worked out well for me in my sports betting life. Hope this helped
The IcemanComment -
Thanks Frats. Some questions:
1) What does +EV mean?
2) How do you know if a teaser is +EV?
3) What is "coorilate a parlay?"
4) How do feel about him advising not to bet different amounts on all games?
5) Is there key numbers to buy points on?
6) Does betting more games=More Risk? Or is it better to be diversified?Comment -
+EV is positive expected value. It basically means that it's a situation/bet that you'd expect to win $ on in the long run. Say that I told you that you could flip a coin, and paying -110 juice on heads. You'd obviously expect to lose $ in the long run on that bet. If the same bet gave you +105 every time you hit heads, they you have +EV.
As far as teasers, you'd learn a lot in Wong's book. All a teaser really boils down to is a two team parlay in which you're paying pretty big juice on each leg of it to buy the spread down. Rather than just going on feel as to when to play a teaser, Wong would should you subsets where a teaser would expect to net you $ in the long run. To make a long story short, teasers that cross both 3 and 7 in the NFL are the main plays, since so many games end up on 3 or 7. So you'd want to tease a favorite of -7.5 to -8.5 down under a FG, or a dog of 1.5 to 2.5 up over a touchdown. It's all about long term. You may think that a teaser on the MNF game is a good idea, but buying an NFL total down from 48 to 42 isn't nearly worth the price that you're actually paying.
A corelated paylay is simply one where one result may directly impact the other result, meaning that if one event wins, the other is also likely to win. A very simplistic example would be a college football line where Oklahoma is favored over Northwest Montana State by 50 points, and the total is 56. Chances are very good that if Oklahoma covers, the game also goes over. So if you have an out where you could corilate the plays, it would make you more $ in the long run than simple betting Oklahoma straight up.
Pros certainly will change their bet amounts, but it's all according to their plan. You shouldn't change the bet amount because the game is on TV, or you're up/down for the week, or because someone has a 200,000 star lock on the game. I wouldn't vary up the bet sizes too much, but I will play my strongest plays at about 2-2.5 times my normal play.
For now, I'd stick to never buying points. There is a reason that the books offer it, it's because they make $ off of it in the long run. There are some very specific subsets where it's not an awful play, but in general it's going to cost you $ in the long run.
The number of games you play really is up to you. In general, the more selective you are, the better you'll make out in the long run. However if I think I have an edge in a specific spot, it won't change my number of plays in a day. For example, a Saturday during college hoops season could see me playing 25 different games, whilea Thursday night with a small card could see me passing. It all comes down to hitting that magical breakeven point. If you're winning 53% of your games playing a small number of games, great. If you want to play more, great, but only if you're still able to keep your edge with the increased volume.Comment -
BumpComment -
Oh really??? Sharp players huh??? How can you justify this statement??? If i tell you i have 10 plays and rate them all 5 units and i have 10 plays and rate them all 2 units. If i go 9-1 with my 2 unit plays and 3-7 with my 5 unit plays i end up with a record of 12-8.... 60%, AMESOME RIGHT??? WRONG!!! I end up winning 33 units and losing 37 units +juice....So you end up hitting 60% of your bets and lose money!!!!!!!!! Anyone that tells you to bet a different amount on each game has NO CLUE what they are talking about!!! PERIOD!!! Don't know what is so Damn hard to understand about that!!
The IcemanComment -
bumpComment -
i think any real player knows his percentage chances of winning a bet deep down going into it..of course its not always correct but for serious cappers its true way more often than not ..there are times i feel 90% its a winner going into it and of course there are times when you know its a coin flip... and then of course when you're tilting you know the odds are against you..anyone that doesnt change bet amounts depending on how much they like the game has no business betting sports and is most likely not even knowledgeable about the sport...betting the same amount always is giving each one of your selections the same exact weight...and i just can justify that... just my 2 cents!Comment
