heres an interesting read i felt, i thought i'd share it here in case you might have missed it:
Cold and old: Sharps avoid Mussina, Santana
By Andrew Folkes
Sat, Apr 8, 2006
As superhuman as New York Yankees starter Mike Mussina and Minnesota Twins hurler Johan Santana have looked on the mound during their careers, it turns out the same things that affect other mortals also hinder their performances.
In recent years, both aces have looked out of sorts during their early season outings. Santana’s kryptonite has been the weather while age figures to be Mussina’s bane.
“Santana… is in the same situation as a lot of other South American pitchers,” explains Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “They’re used to pitching in much warmer weather (and the cold) may have an effect on them early in the season.”
Santana, who faces Cleveland Sunday, gave up 11 runs during his first 15 innings in 2004 and was tagged for four runs through five innings in his season debut against Seattle last season. The temperatures he experienced in those contests would certainly have been bitter compared to balmy climates of his native Venezuela and the spring training facilities in Florida.
Santana’s early season struggles continued Tuesday when he gave up four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings to Toronto as the Twins lost 6-3 as +121 underdogs. However, Mother Nature can’t take the rap for that shoddy outing.
“Santana made his last start in a dome,” Leonard points out. “So (the weather) wouldn’t have affected him there.”
So perhaps stamina is also an issue at this time of year. Santana managed to hold the Jays scoreless through the first three innings before allowing three runs in the fourth.
That also appears to be Mussina’s biggest issue as he heads into Sunday’s matchup with the L.A. Angels. He started this season by giving up three runs to Oakland in seven innings, which was an inning longer than he lasted in his 2005 debut. However, he didn’t last beyond 5 2/3 innings in starts two, three, and four last year.
As poorly as he pitched in those three games (nine earned runs in 16 innings), the bullpen was even worse and his backers were down 4.63 units after his fifth start. He lasted at least seven innings in his next four appearances, but it seems the 37-year-old needs time to build up that staying power.
“Possibly,” says Leonard. “But how many times has he thrown 200-plus innings in his career? He’s been a real workhorse over the years… and now he’s just starting to get old.
"He’s a pitcher we’ll be looking to fade because the Yankees are always overpriced and he’s also overpriced just because of his name.”
Backing Mussina’s and Santana’s starts is always pricey simply because of their star power and in recent seasons, they haven’t lived up to those odds in the early going. However, books say that will get some consideration in Sunday’s odds.
“We look first at form in the last three games that a player has pitched,” explain BetUSA.com oddsmaker Bill Nevin. “Then we compare those with his overall numbers. From there we then try and add in any other factors, such as poor early season form.
“But to be honest (Mussina’s) performance against Oakland will weigh far more heavily on our minds than anything he did 12 or 24 months ago.”
By Andrew Folkes
Sat, Apr 8, 2006
As superhuman as New York Yankees starter Mike Mussina and Minnesota Twins hurler Johan Santana have looked on the mound during their careers, it turns out the same things that affect other mortals also hinder their performances.
In recent years, both aces have looked out of sorts during their early season outings. Santana’s kryptonite has been the weather while age figures to be Mussina’s bane.
“Santana… is in the same situation as a lot of other South American pitchers,” explains Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “They’re used to pitching in much warmer weather (and the cold) may have an effect on them early in the season.”
Santana, who faces Cleveland Sunday, gave up 11 runs during his first 15 innings in 2004 and was tagged for four runs through five innings in his season debut against Seattle last season. The temperatures he experienced in those contests would certainly have been bitter compared to balmy climates of his native Venezuela and the spring training facilities in Florida.
Santana’s early season struggles continued Tuesday when he gave up four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings to Toronto as the Twins lost 6-3 as +121 underdogs. However, Mother Nature can’t take the rap for that shoddy outing.
“Santana made his last start in a dome,” Leonard points out. “So (the weather) wouldn’t have affected him there.”
So perhaps stamina is also an issue at this time of year. Santana managed to hold the Jays scoreless through the first three innings before allowing three runs in the fourth.
That also appears to be Mussina’s biggest issue as he heads into Sunday’s matchup with the L.A. Angels. He started this season by giving up three runs to Oakland in seven innings, which was an inning longer than he lasted in his 2005 debut. However, he didn’t last beyond 5 2/3 innings in starts two, three, and four last year.
As poorly as he pitched in those three games (nine earned runs in 16 innings), the bullpen was even worse and his backers were down 4.63 units after his fifth start. He lasted at least seven innings in his next four appearances, but it seems the 37-year-old needs time to build up that staying power.
“Possibly,” says Leonard. “But how many times has he thrown 200-plus innings in his career? He’s been a real workhorse over the years… and now he’s just starting to get old.
"He’s a pitcher we’ll be looking to fade because the Yankees are always overpriced and he’s also overpriced just because of his name.”
Backing Mussina’s and Santana’s starts is always pricey simply because of their star power and in recent seasons, they haven’t lived up to those odds in the early going. However, books say that will get some consideration in Sunday’s odds.
“We look first at form in the last three games that a player has pitched,” explain BetUSA.com oddsmaker Bill Nevin. “Then we compare those with his overall numbers. From there we then try and add in any other factors, such as poor early season form.
“But to be honest (Mussina’s) performance against Oakland will weigh far more heavily on our minds than anything he did 12 or 24 months ago.”