People Who Don't Believe in Big Favorites In Baseball

[brahmabull117]

can you please explain yourselves??



what is wrong with taking big favorites (let's say lines between -160 to -300) if there is tremendous value in that line??? I'm not suggesting blindly play all big favorites but there are a lot of times when a big favorite is in even a much better position to win their game/series than the line would indicate




Hell, the Phillies are 16-1 in Roy Halladay's last 17 starts. I'm sure a lot of those starts were around - 200, but that's 16-1 for god's sake!! That's a 94% winning percentage. Another perfect example was the brewers last weekend against pittsburg, the line was about -240, which sounds like a lot until you do some research and realize the brewers have beaten the Pirates 35 out of 38 games in Milwaukee.... that line should have been - 3,000!!!!

[ngates815]

like OMG...I couldn't agree more

[cant call it]

Obviously some big faves do cover. However, I am not sure it would be wise to take every -200 favorite there was in baseball, as if betting was that easy, we would all be millionaires by now.

[brahmabull117]

However, I am not sure it would be wise to take every -200 favorite there was in baseball.

of course not, that's why you gotta do research and find the matchups that have a much higher winning percentage than even the - 200 line would indicate


perfect example is Roy Halladay, the phillies are 20-4 when he starts. That's an 83% winning percentage and it's why I will play nearly every game he starts because it's so profitable



another example is the brewers who have won 75% of their games at home this year. I will gladly play a - 150 line with them because they're gonna win that game 3 out of 4 times on most occasions

[I/O]

discuss

[jarvol]

Because you won't hit 67% winners to break even.

[brahmabull117]

Because you won't hit 67% winners to break even.

o rly?? Ive won 75% of my bets last 3 weeks and my avg play was only about - 150



I would win at about a 80-90% rate if I exclusively took - 200 and bigger lines

[ngates815]

o rly?? Ive won 75% of my bets last 3 weeks and my avg play was only about - 150 I would win at about a 80-90% rate if I exclusively took - 200 and bigger lines

What's the play tonight?

I wanna follow it

thanks.

[jjgold]

What is halladay's money totals if you took him every game this year??

[Glitch]

well im not one of those people who think that those numbers are bad, but once you get passed -210, maybe -250 or so youre kinda crossing the line. those plays lose sometimes also.

i play a lot of -161 -175 etc and it seems like those are the teams that usually win- which is why the odds are as they are (rangers, bosox, yanks...) but in baseball one swing of a wooden stick can change the whole game.

[brahmabull117]

What is halladay's money totals if you took him every game this year??

unbelievably high


I think if you just put in 5000 every game, you would have made $30,000 by now (20 - 4 record, assuming average line is - 200)

[brahmabull117]

well im not one of those people who think that those numbers are bad, but once you get passed -210 or so youre kinda crossing the line. those plays lose sometimes also.

again it depends entirely on the matchup



I'll gladly lay - 250 on Jered Weaver starting at home against the Mariners... why??? The Angels are 11-0 when Weaver starts at home against Seattle




I keep it real simple, if a team has as higher chance of winning than the vegas line indicates, I will play it everytime regardless of how high it is

[DrStale]

Your main problem is that you dont understand how sample size works. 10 games, 20 games is nowhere near enough of a sample to accurately make judgments about the accuracy of a line. If you base your bets off of this you WILL NOT win over time. Not complicated.

[Rich Boy]

Books are more likely to juice the favorite side than the dog side, which makes it more difficult to find edges.

They still exist, but you will have a better chance finding edges if you take dogs.

Notice how many of the sharp posters on the forum only take dogs or mild favorites? Its not by coincidence.

[brahmabull117]

10 games, 20 games is nowhere near enough of a sample to accurately make judgments about the accuracy of a line. .

If you think that way, you will find it impossible to win in gambling because there are very very very few trends that last for 40 or 50 games



gambling is one of those things where you gotta strike while the iron's hot. You gotta find teams at the peak of their winning streaks and ride it out until they show signs of cooling down

[I/O]

What is halladay's money totals if you took him every game this year??

+13.8 units in all games

[brahmabull117]

Notice how many of the sharp posters on the forum only take dogs or mild favorites? Its not by coincidence.

I don't know what you would consider me, I have turned $300 into $4,000 in a matter of about 16 days... and I bet on a ton of favorites




I don't mind underdog betting in general in sports - I love playing dogs in basketball, but I find it very very difficult to do in baseball. U just gotta do what you feel comfortable with IMO

[k13]

Because baseball is a joke, it's like hockey, every team is almost a coin flip in the short term.

I'll gladly lay -300 in the NFL in certain situations.

Best teams in baseball still lose at a ~40% clip.

[brahmabull117]

Best teams in baseball still lose at a ~40% clip.

that's why you gotta find teams who are streaking dude



the brewers have won 16 out of 18 games, u ride that hot streak until they show signs of cooling down

[I/O]

only +3 units as a fav

[Grits n' Gravy]

It seems so simple to just bet all the big favorites and call yourself a winner. The reality is the big chalk loses often enough to damage your bankroll. Then you begin to chase and become Brock. Remember that no idea is original and your theories and stats have been tossed around for years with the only long term winner being the books.

[brahmabull117]

It seems so simple to just bet all the big favorites and call yourself a winner.

except that I don't bet all the big faves. I bet the ones that look very good after I do extensive research


Jered Weaver is 11-0 at home against the Mariners, I'll play that line every single time unless it's against King Felix

the only long term winner being the books.

and this is why 99% of u guys fail miserably in gambling before you even start (because you have this defeatist attitude)

[Glitch]

again it depends entirely on the matchup



I'll gladly lay - 250 on Jered Weaver starting at home against the Mariners... why??? The Angels are 11-0 when Weaver starts at home against Seattle

I keep it real simple, if a team has as higher chance of winning than the vegas line indicates, I will play it everytime regardless of how high it is

yeah i hear ya man, and i do the same thing sometimes but have been thinking lately i should tone it down some- i edited that to -210 to -250 right after i posted but you musta been already replying.

as long as youre not betting 3 times what you would normally bet because the odds are so much less favorable- i agree with you.

hope you keep the streak goin dude.

[DrStale]

I don't know what you would consider me, I have turned $300 into $4,000 in a matter of about 16 days... and I bet on a ton of favorites




I don't mind underdog betting in general in sports - I love playing dogs in basketball, but I find it very very difficult to do in baseball. U just gotta do what you feel comfortable with IMO

Once again, you have no concept of sample size. 16 days is meaningless.

[DDT]

You will win a couple games but lose it all back when one of the heavy favorites loses

[brahmabull117]

yeah i hear ya man, and i do the same thing sometimes but have been thinking lately i should tone it down some- i edited that to -210 to -250 right after i posted but you musta been already replying. as long as youre not betting 3 times what you would normally bet because the odds are so much less favorable- i agree with you. hope you keep the streak goin dude.

lines that big are fairly rare in baseball anyways brah



most of my bets fall in that - 130 - 190 range

[Grits n' Gravy]

except that I don't bet all the big faves. I bet the ones that look very good after I do extensive research


Jered Weaver is 11-0 at home against the Mariners, I'll play that line every single time unless it's against King Felix






and this is why 99% of u guys fail miserably in gambling before you even start (because you have this defeatist attitude)

Gotta love a college gambler. Doesn't quite see the big picture, but has all the answers. Having run books I would take any action someone wanted. I knew at the end of the week I would make a profit. Wish you the best this year, but I give your bankroll another 6 weeks max until it disappears(unless your parents kick you some dough).

[Glitch]

lines that big are fairly rare in baseball anyways brah

most of my bets fall in that - 130 - 190 range

exactly. and mine too.

[vyomguy]

+160 or -250...if you find the value in it...take it.

[Cap dat 4ss]

I love this guy. Hes turned 300 into 4k over a 16 day period and thinks hes got it figured out. He uses "extensive" research, like a pitchers record on the road against team b.

Brahma, you sound like your on a nice run but theres guys here that bet more per game than youve rolled in the last 16 days. I would be willing to bet my house that your research doesnt sniff extensive. But even if it does, youre so far behind its comical.

Dont forget, the goal is to make money off the books. On all sports, bets, promos etc... it doesnt matter. The fact youre so happy youve gone from pocket change to laundry money in MLB while playing sides tells me youre just a kid on a roll.

[Rich Boy]

Brahma, you seem like a decent guy.

I will give you some advice here.

Spend a few days in the handicappers think tank and learn as much as you can about expected value and expected growth. Ganchrow has 2 great threads on both of those topics. Thats how I started to learn about this business and how to ACTUALLY win.

Winning in this business is about grinding out profits over a long period. Even the strongest edge players go through large swings. Its a roller coaster ride and nobody can predict what will happen next, NOBODY.

And it seems to me that you are on a hot streak right now, nothing more than luck. Eventually that luck will run out and you will probably lose your entire bankroll. Seen it happen many times on SBR.

The only thing you can rely on is your edge, because in the end, numbers dont lie.

Dont be so concerned about how much money you make in a day/week/month. Worry about the price you got compared to the fair price when a market closes.

[ngates815]

Damnit, I just want to know the winning play tonight.

THANKS.

[Waz]

This is probably one of the better times of the season to bet favorites as some of these teams have flat out given up already. In addition, some of these squads are playing several minor league players that are just getting a test run.

[Glitch]

Damnit, I just want to know the winning play tonight.

THANKS.

probably tigers and/or rangers.


brah,
you should listen to this rich boy character- he and the other guys telling you this stuff are not wrong. but he worded in a non-asshole way. that way you an be in it for the long haul. not to take anything away from the run youre on now.

money management is the single most important aspect of sports betting. even more than the research. which is the second most important.

[Masu485]

probably tigers and/or rangers.


brah,
you should listen to this rich boy character- he and the other guys telling you this stuff are not wrong. but he worded in a non-asshole way. that way you an be in it for the long haul. not to take anything away from the run youre on now.

money management is the single most important aspect of sports betting. even more than the research. which is the second most important.

I agree with you and Richie, but it'll be almost impossible for him to actually stop what he's doing to read up on Think Tank stuff. If he's winning like this, he's gonna continue until he comes crashing back to Earth. I also predict money management issues, where he will start to up his bet size, thinking he's unstoppable, but it will cause him to come back to break even, even sooner.