Phils At -280 Tonight Seems Overpriced

[TexansFan]

The Nats +1.5 at +110 looks better.

[Stocks]

The Phillies are overpriced but there is also no reason to bet the Nationals here.

Phillies are the best team in baseball, play great at home and are as hot as can be right now with a starting pitcher who has a whip under 1 for the season so that is ace type numbers.

The Nationals are under .500 on the season, they're a bad road team and Hernandez is also shit especially on the road 1-8 with an era close to 6.

My motto is as bettors we don't have to bet on every game so why bet this one.

[ScreaminPain]

has cole ever won at that line before

This data is for Last 3 games ONLY:
Cole Hamels: DIP 3.00 WHIP .093 BAA .209 RANKING 8
Livan Hernandez: DIP 6.41 WHIP 1.68 BAA .316 RANKING 113

C. Hamels at home this year... 7-5
C. Hamels at home with a line >200...2-0
C. Hamels at home with a ine >180...4-1

C. Hamels at home facing a pitcher with an DIP >5.00 AND a pitcher ranking over 100...1-0
(beat B. Arroyo 10-3, Arroyo had a 5.58 DIP and rating of 155 that day...5/23/11)

This data is for 2011:
Philly: when facing a pitcher with a RANKING >100 is 34-13
Wash: when facing a pitcher with a RANKING <10 is 2-6

Good Luck on your action...

[incomeraise]

jjgold, i need ur insight on few things...tried to Pm you but i guess you dont accept any pm....i am here to make money ..i have few questions, and dont want to clog the thred with all that...just trying to learn few things...if u can help, i d appreciate it
not sure how to get in touch with u?

[og4667]

take the Nats and see what happens, worst road record in the division vs the best home team in the division...Hernandez 1-11 on the road this season...

betting on the Nats is just hoping for an upset, better off playing the %'s

[dlunc3]

Why is Cole hamels not an ace?

[showtiime]

RL for me

[pimike]

jjgold, i need ur insight on few things...tried to Pm you but i guess you dont accept any pm....i am here to make money ..i have few questions, and dont want to clog the thred with all that...just trying to learn few things...if u can help, i d appreciate it
not sure how to get in touch with u?

You don't want jj's advise bud.

[incomeraise]

You don't want jj's advise bud.

really??? lol

[Coming Back!]

I put $800 Nats. F**k it. I have found $$$ anyway. I went to bed in the 7th inning of the D-Backs game when it was 5-1 late, figuring the game was over. I couldn't believe the D-Backs cashed. Going for it tonight. Anybody can win a baseball game

[vyomguy]

i like over

[nbarlotta3]

Phillies are always overpriced. I'd stay away from this.

[delpiero7]

What are the stats on how many units you would be up if you made a flat bet on the Phillies ML every game this season?

Even though they are 'overpriced' here (seems strange to say as in the UK we'd say they were underpriced as the number would be lower in fractional/decimal odds), the same happens in most Phillies games and they keep churning out the wins.

Gotta fancy them with Hamels on the mound against Livan, who has struggled badly all year on the road.

GL, whichever side you go with!

[notsosharp]

The nats +1.5 is a suckers bet. I know alot baseball games are decided by one run etc. The phillies bats either get to hernedez and they light him up. I am taking washington tonight. But if you want a smart bet for tonight. Bet 1 unit on phillies -1.5 and 1 unit on washington moneyline. I think if phillies win it is going be by two or more. I know this sounds like biggest suckers bet of all time but think this way has alot more value than nats+1.5. I think nats +1.5 +115 probably worst bet on the board tonight for the price.

[philswin]

I think everyone can find a better game to play tonight. Would rather play pre-season NFL than touch this game.

[rm18]

Nats best hitter Morse not in the lineup

[John Morrison]

what u mean hamels is no ACE JJ ... if he was on 90 percent of any other team he would be there ace

[SaintsFan]

I put $800 Nats. F**k it. I have found $$$ anyway. I went to bed in the 7th inning of the D-Backs game when it was 5-1 late, figuring the game was over. I couldn't believe the D-Backs cashed. Going for it tonight. Anybody can win a baseball game

I had the same lucky hit but am rolling it onto the Brewers tonight with Greinke.

[Coming Back!]

Anything can happen. Are the Phils gonna win tonight? Most likely. But when you hit a ball with a stick, anything can happen. Nats could sweep them. Hamels is not gonna be great every game, Bastardo & company aren't gonna be great every game. There is a lot of luck involved

[SparJMU]

i see -290 now. is that the biggest line of the year?! ha. Livan hasnt been that terrible, and the Phils ALWAYS struggle against the Nats. No way Id lay that juice, might parlay it with some tennis... Phils are so good tho.

Phillies are 20-4 in their last 28 at home against the Nationals. I think a -300 line is perfectly justified. As always, the linesmakers are much smarter than the people typing in this thread.

[SparJMU]

Phillies are always overpriced. I'd stay away from this.

The Phillies are always overpriced? If you bet the moneyline on the Phillies in every game all season, you would be up 21.8 units. That is an undisputable fact that the Phillies have actually been underpriced all season.

[Coming Back!]

The Phillies are always overpriced? If you bet the moneyline on the Phillies in every game all season, you would be up 21.8 units. That is an undisputable fact that the Phillies have actually been underpriced all season.

Great stat. I'd love to know where you got that info. And to the previous poster, I know the linesmakers are smarter than me in baseball. But, guess what: If the Nats didn't have a chance in the game, the game would be off the board.

[Coming Back!]

I recall a similar line last year. Halladay home versus the Pirates. Pirates won & Halladay pitched a gem. And, I'm a Yankees fan. I've seen the Yanks lose tons of games home against teams like the Royals vs Clemens. Etc. It happens folks

[Maxmillion]

livan has looked like he is wearing down a bit, he has logged a lot of innings and he is not getting any younger even if he is throwing a lot of junk these days. nats better hope cole is off his game. i would lay the -125 on teh run line

[Maxmillion]

Anything can happen. Are the Phils gonna win tonight? Most likely. But when you hit a ball with a stick, anything can happen. Nats could sweep them. Hamels is not gonna be great every game, Bastardo & company aren't gonna be great every game. There is a lot of luck involved

and i could hit the powerball, no way the nats sweep the phillies

[canepole]

agree go philly

[katstale]

Phils and Milwaukee both seem right. Get them cheap at match if u can.

[Pete0]

[SaintsFan]

ruh-roh. cole is not on his game tonight. hope the phillies' bats are warm.

and hope zack greinke is okay on 4 days' rest. im huge on MKE.

[LockPickMaster]

2 on and no outs

[Coming Back!]

Nats had a great chance to grab this game by the balls and blew it. Not feeling good at all. Hamels fastball is 88 tops and Nats can't take advantage. I guess that's why the line is what it is

[Coming Back!]

NATS. NATS. NATS. I told you guys!!!! Anybody could win a baseball game. And I put $800 where mouth was. Its like a $1900 payout. Not over yet though. But I feel like even if they lose now, my point was made

[jjgold]

[og4667]

wow great call jj

[SaintsFan]

(speaking to those who laid the huge chalk on PHI): Greinke was a safer play tonight with better odds to boot.