Final 4 Picks - Odds 4 in 5 million

[Willie Bee]

Listening to NPR this morning on a foggy drive through the Texas Hill Country. A reporter noted that there were over 5,000,000 NCAA brackets submitted to contests at ESPN and CBS Sportsline combined. Of those, just four (all at ESPN) have Florida, LSU, UCLA and George Mason alive

Almost easier to win a lottery this year than to pick the Final 4.

[isetcap]

Listening to NPR this morning...

Almost easier to win a lottery this year than to pick the Final 4.

Well, not really. Let's not give any lesser-minded individuals (NPR's catered constituency) skewed hopes that the Lottery is anything more than an absolute "sucker bet". The Lottery has been shown to prey almost exclusively on the poorest element of our society who don't have the mental capacity to understand just how poor the return on their investment actually is.

Taking a look at a comparison of the real odds shows us:

The odds of having the Final 4 teams correct were 1 out of 1,250,000.
The odds of having the winning lottery number is 1 out of 3,838,000.
That means the odds were more than three times better in the Final 4 contest.

A comparison of return on your investment shows an even greater disparity between the the two. A lottery investment has a negative return that exceeds 50%. It is the worst controlled-wager situation you can invest in. You could expect a better return by giving a random person money and hoping they pay you back. The cash return on a contest that requires no monetary investment is obviously not negative and therefore it is considerably better than the lottery.

[Willie Bee]

Well, not really.

Yes, really, You left out analysis on how two people can differ in their definitions of the world almost.

[The Great One]

I wonder how many have three of the four right, but including George Mason, but leaving out a team like UCLA.

As the final 4 was getting set, Ikept thinking to myself that those people thatreally don't know anyything about basketball except they went to school at GMU were the onlyy ones that would be right; at least this year.

Hell, I though I did good because I had Wichita St. in the sweet 16, Texas A & M beating Syracuse, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee beating Oklahoma but I guess I was wrong. That just doesn't happen much.

But at least I know I'm right on one thing, VINCE YOUNG WILL SUCK. Hahahaah

[RickySteve]

Well, not really. Let's not give any lesser-minded individuals (NPR's catered constituency) skewed hopes that the Lottery is anything more than an absolute "sucker bet". The Lottery has been shown to prey almost exclusively on the poorest element of our society who don't have the mental capacity to understand just how poor the return on their investment actually is.

Taking a look at a comparison of the real odds shows us:

The odds of having the Final 4 teams correct were 1 out of 1,250,000.
The odds of having the winning lottery number is 1 out of 3,838,000.
That means the odds were more than three times better in the Final 4 contest.

A comparison of return on your investment shows an even greater disparity between the the two. A lottery investment has a negative return that exceeds 50%. It is the worst controlled-wager situation you can invest in. You could expect a better return by giving a random person money and hoping they pay you back. The cash return on a contest that requires no monetary investment is obviously not negative and therefore it is considerably better than the lottery.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility