2005 Record: 67-95, 5th in NL West
On the surface Colorado’s 67 sins in 2005 doesn’t seem the least bit spectacular. Indeed, it could be argued that a 67-win season can never be entered under the heading ‘spectacular.’ But in many ways, the Rockies did have a spectacular 2005 campaign. At least the final few months were impressive.
After opening 6-15 in April, sitting 15-35 after May and 31-56 at the break, Colorado got things together and closed fairly strong. Well, strong is a relative term, especially when talking about any 2005 NL West team.
Most people assume that the poor showing last year was due to bad pitching. And they’re right, to a degree. Of the arms that made 20 or more starts, Byung-Hyun Kim’s 4.86 was the leading ERA. BH Kim, henceforth known as Kim #1, should be joined at the back end of the rotation this year by fellow Team Korea teammate Sun-Woo Kim, henceforth Kim #2. The #5 starter’s job was initially to have been a fight between Kim #2, Zach Day and Josh Fogg. But with Day getting pounded at an alarming rate this spring and Fogg nursing a sore groin, Kim #2 may win the job by default.
The front of the rotation is young and has a lot of proverbial potential. Right-handers Jason Jennings and Aaron Cook are each enjoying pretty good springs so far with lefty Jeff Francis struggling somewhat. Cook was the better of the three last season statistically, compiling a sub-4.00 ERA in his 12 starts, and he’s logged the most innings this spring. But look for either Jennings or Francis to make the Opening Day start. Forget the ERA and WHIP columns for a moment. They’ve had just three 200-IP pitchers the last seven seasons, with two of those coming in ’04. Someone --- Be it Francis, Jennings or Cook --- has to take the ace role and hold it while eating 200 IP.
The bullpen had its ups-&-downs in 2005, with the emergence of Brian Fuentes in the closer’s role definitely one of the ups. Chin-hui Tsao was supposed to have been an up, but shoulder trouble sent him to the surgeon’s table and he isn’t expected back until late June. The Rocks went out and signed Jose Mesa this winter, a move that I can’t help but think will be a disaster. Joe Table has proven me wrong on occasion before, and he has fared well in limited Coors Field action. But other than relating his big league closing experience to some of the youngsters in the Colorado pen this year, I just don’t see any value in his old arm.
Until Tsao comes back from injury and Mesa proves me wrong, Mike DeJean and Tom Martin sit atop my list of best setup-middle relief arms. Even though Martin is a lefty, look for veteran Ray King to draw most of the lefty specialist duties. Jamie Cerda, yet another southpaw, David Cortes and Miguel Ascensio are candidates to fill middle roles.
While pitching was part of the problem last year, as it usually is in Colorado, the offense played a larger role than many think. Todd Helton’s season mirrored the Rockies’ in many ways as he was hitting under .260 at the end of May before closing the year with a .320 average. His days of 40+ homers are over, but the first baseman’s still a strong bet to be among the batting leaders and drive in 100 runs.
The rest of the infield has Luis A. Gonzalez at second, Clint Barmes at short and Garrett Atkins over at third. Gonzalez is looking to settle into the 2B job full-time after bouncing all around the Colorado defensive chart the last two seasons. Barmes was the hottest rookie going the first two months of 2005, batting over .400 in April and possessing nearly a .900 OPS on June 5th when he suffered a busted collarbone falling down stairs while carrying venison to his freezer. He did return in September but couldn’t match his earlier success. Atkins got off to a slow start, due in part to a hamstring injury, and he’s not going to be a Gold Glove finalist. The former UCLA Bruin is probably better suited for first base eventually, and with both Jeff Baker and Ian Stewart pushing him with Colorado, he needs to avoid a slow start and prolonged slumps this season.
Jamey Carroll is the utility infielder this year, but that’s about all that’s known right now for backups. Ryan Shealy, who has the potential for 40+ homers, is nursing a sore elbow and unlikely to make the team out of spring training right now. The club initially decided to try him in the outfield in order to get his bat in the mix, but it looks like he might be trade bait now.
Household names, the outfielders are not. Matt Holliday, fresh off his appearance with Team USA in the WBC, will play left and probably bat fourth behind Helton in the order where he is a threat for 110+ RBI. He’s also a threat to hit below .250 on the road as he has the last two years. Cory Sullivan, who would be a #4-#5 outfielder on most teams, patrols center with his better than average speed. And Brad Hawpe, who has nursed a groin pull this spring, is in right. Based on spring numbers, the best bets for OF backups right now are Eli Marrero and Choo Freeman.
Mark my words: The Rockies won’t be a last place team in 2007. There is a lot to like about the offense, and not just that they’ll be hitting half the time in thinner air. By this time next year they will likely be ready to explode and could make the original Blake Street Bombers look a bit scrawny in comparison. But the mound is just too iffy for me to move the team up the ranks just yet.
Key Performer(s): The bullpen and offense at home, and the starters on the road.
Camp Question(s): Finding a fifth starter, and outfield experiments with a few infielders.
My Play: The Rockies might get off to a better start --- Hard to get off to one that was much worse --- but the end results will probably be the same with a win total in the mid-to-upper 60s. My average came up at 67, same as 2005. I’m seeing o/u lines of 70 at Pinnacle and 68½ at The Greek. If you like 69 --- And who doesn’t? --- then money can be had from both.
On the surface Colorado’s 67 sins in 2005 doesn’t seem the least bit spectacular. Indeed, it could be argued that a 67-win season can never be entered under the heading ‘spectacular.’ But in many ways, the Rockies did have a spectacular 2005 campaign. At least the final few months were impressive.
After opening 6-15 in April, sitting 15-35 after May and 31-56 at the break, Colorado got things together and closed fairly strong. Well, strong is a relative term, especially when talking about any 2005 NL West team.
Most people assume that the poor showing last year was due to bad pitching. And they’re right, to a degree. Of the arms that made 20 or more starts, Byung-Hyun Kim’s 4.86 was the leading ERA. BH Kim, henceforth known as Kim #1, should be joined at the back end of the rotation this year by fellow Team Korea teammate Sun-Woo Kim, henceforth Kim #2. The #5 starter’s job was initially to have been a fight between Kim #2, Zach Day and Josh Fogg. But with Day getting pounded at an alarming rate this spring and Fogg nursing a sore groin, Kim #2 may win the job by default.
The front of the rotation is young and has a lot of proverbial potential. Right-handers Jason Jennings and Aaron Cook are each enjoying pretty good springs so far with lefty Jeff Francis struggling somewhat. Cook was the better of the three last season statistically, compiling a sub-4.00 ERA in his 12 starts, and he’s logged the most innings this spring. But look for either Jennings or Francis to make the Opening Day start. Forget the ERA and WHIP columns for a moment. They’ve had just three 200-IP pitchers the last seven seasons, with two of those coming in ’04. Someone --- Be it Francis, Jennings or Cook --- has to take the ace role and hold it while eating 200 IP.
The bullpen had its ups-&-downs in 2005, with the emergence of Brian Fuentes in the closer’s role definitely one of the ups. Chin-hui Tsao was supposed to have been an up, but shoulder trouble sent him to the surgeon’s table and he isn’t expected back until late June. The Rocks went out and signed Jose Mesa this winter, a move that I can’t help but think will be a disaster. Joe Table has proven me wrong on occasion before, and he has fared well in limited Coors Field action. But other than relating his big league closing experience to some of the youngsters in the Colorado pen this year, I just don’t see any value in his old arm.
Until Tsao comes back from injury and Mesa proves me wrong, Mike DeJean and Tom Martin sit atop my list of best setup-middle relief arms. Even though Martin is a lefty, look for veteran Ray King to draw most of the lefty specialist duties. Jamie Cerda, yet another southpaw, David Cortes and Miguel Ascensio are candidates to fill middle roles.
While pitching was part of the problem last year, as it usually is in Colorado, the offense played a larger role than many think. Todd Helton’s season mirrored the Rockies’ in many ways as he was hitting under .260 at the end of May before closing the year with a .320 average. His days of 40+ homers are over, but the first baseman’s still a strong bet to be among the batting leaders and drive in 100 runs.
The rest of the infield has Luis A. Gonzalez at second, Clint Barmes at short and Garrett Atkins over at third. Gonzalez is looking to settle into the 2B job full-time after bouncing all around the Colorado defensive chart the last two seasons. Barmes was the hottest rookie going the first two months of 2005, batting over .400 in April and possessing nearly a .900 OPS on June 5th when he suffered a busted collarbone falling down stairs while carrying venison to his freezer. He did return in September but couldn’t match his earlier success. Atkins got off to a slow start, due in part to a hamstring injury, and he’s not going to be a Gold Glove finalist. The former UCLA Bruin is probably better suited for first base eventually, and with both Jeff Baker and Ian Stewart pushing him with Colorado, he needs to avoid a slow start and prolonged slumps this season.
Jamey Carroll is the utility infielder this year, but that’s about all that’s known right now for backups. Ryan Shealy, who has the potential for 40+ homers, is nursing a sore elbow and unlikely to make the team out of spring training right now. The club initially decided to try him in the outfield in order to get his bat in the mix, but it looks like he might be trade bait now.
Household names, the outfielders are not. Matt Holliday, fresh off his appearance with Team USA in the WBC, will play left and probably bat fourth behind Helton in the order where he is a threat for 110+ RBI. He’s also a threat to hit below .250 on the road as he has the last two years. Cory Sullivan, who would be a #4-#5 outfielder on most teams, patrols center with his better than average speed. And Brad Hawpe, who has nursed a groin pull this spring, is in right. Based on spring numbers, the best bets for OF backups right now are Eli Marrero and Choo Freeman.
Mark my words: The Rockies won’t be a last place team in 2007. There is a lot to like about the offense, and not just that they’ll be hitting half the time in thinner air. By this time next year they will likely be ready to explode and could make the original Blake Street Bombers look a bit scrawny in comparison. But the mound is just too iffy for me to move the team up the ranks just yet.
Key Performer(s): The bullpen and offense at home, and the starters on the road.
Camp Question(s): Finding a fifth starter, and outfield experiments with a few infielders.
My Play: The Rockies might get off to a better start --- Hard to get off to one that was much worse --- but the end results will probably be the same with a win total in the mid-to-upper 60s. My average came up at 67, same as 2005. I’m seeing o/u lines of 70 at Pinnacle and 68½ at The Greek. If you like 69 --- And who doesn’t? --- then money can be had from both.