You tell me if you agree with this guy's take of gambing, because I disagree with rule #4. I feel you have a big advantage if you find the right prop bet offerings.
5 Simple Rules for Winning at Football Gambling
Before I begin, I want to make it plain to everyone who may view this page that I do not condone or participate in illegal or illicit gambling activities, and I am sure that neither do TSN.com or any people, businesses, or corporations connected with TSN.com. If someone, anyone feels the need to gamble on any sporting event, I advise that you do so through a legal and certified sports book, either in an area which permits such businesses such as Vegas or Atlantic City, or through any accredited online agency. If anyone viewing this page has an addiction to gambling which could be ruining your lives and the lives of your loved-ones, I ask you to seek help by calling Gambler's Anonymous at 888-GA-HELPS (888-424-3577). Thank you.
Okay, with the very necessary disclaimer out of the way, I also want to say that I don't personally gamble right now in my life for the simple reason that as a student, I simply do not have the money to do so. When I graduate this next spring and begin my career, once the bulk of my debts are paid off, I intend to take a week-long trip out to Vegas and sit at the Hold 'Em and Blackjack tables and frequent a few of the sports books.
While I don't gamble right now, I have gambled in the past, and am fairly proficient at it. Why? Because I play to the odds. I don't take unnecessary risks or chances. It's why I'm doing so well right now in my fantasy playoff basketball leagues. I've also won a few pools in my day. I'm a decent enough poker player. And I definitely would never allow my personal sports allegiances to cloud a bet, like I frequently did as a young, foolish child. I have a very simple system, especially when it comes to betting on football; it's just five simple rules.
These are logical rules that have their roots in my love for hold 'em and blackjack. Anyone who has played these games knows that the people who have the most success are the ones who play the odds. Yes, by playing the odds, you may lose some, but you also win some. In gambling, I consider coming out even winning, and so should you. Because when you come out even, that means the house doesn't win, and for you personally, that's a win.
People who lose at blackjack ride hot streaks past the point of logic. They may have made a desperate play and hit on 16 to recoup their losses and actually won. So then they make other stupid decisions that fly in the face of common sense until they've lost everything. In Hold 'Em, if you have junk after the flop, you fold without question, unless you have a possible straight draw. Then you wait for the turn. If you don't nail it on the turn, then you fold. You never take junk or a straight draw in your hand hoping the river bails you out with some miracle card you need. That's stupid. You see? Common sense. Play the odds, not a "feeling." Not "intuition." You fold if you have junk after the flop because it's better to lose the little ante you had to throw into the pot than the big raises down the line. Logic. If you play this way, you're more likely to break even or actually win, than lose.
Sports betting, especially football, is the same way. Football is the easiest sport to bet, because it's the easiest sport to win bets in. Betting baseball is foolish, unless the year is 1995, and you're betting on Greg Maddux to win a ballgame. Betting hockey and basketball, while not as stupid as betting baseball, is also not as sure as betting football, but they have their own rules. Like never bet on a team who's playing their second game in two nights on the road. For hockey and basketball, that rule is the same, and is sacrosanct.
But in football, there are only five simple rules you must follow; so let's talk about them.
Rule 1. Don't allow your personal sports team allegiances to cloud your judgment.
This is the most important rule there is when betting football games. The sports books in Vegas count on people betting with their hearts and not their heads. That's how people lose, and Vegas wins. How many Pats fans either stupidly bet on the Patriots to cover the spread in the Super Bowl or win out-right? Well, if they were all smart, none of them should of, and we'll get into why soon. Yes, sometimes betting with your heart can actually win you a lot of money, in a once-in-a-million-shot kinda way. So to all of the New York Giant fans who bet the Giants to win out-right (the stupid bet) instead of betting them to cover the spread (the smart bet), y'all won a lot of money. But you need to understand the scarcity of winning that kind of bet, and the fact that it'll never happen again in that way in your life time. In fact, Vegas is hoping you forget that fact and make more stupid bets like that, because there's nothing like winning while betting stupid to encourage more stupid betting. So while Vegas took the huge hit on all the Giants fans who made the stupid bet and won, trust me, they know they'll get their money back plus a whole lot more from those same stupid people who bet stupid. Because stupid people who bet stupid is the reason why Vegas is still around. Because Vegas isn't stupid. They take advantage of those who are; those who bet stupid. Don't be that person.
Rule 2. Never bet on teams simply to "win" or "lose" games; stick to the spread!
Betting wins or losses is a sucker bet. Always stick to the betting lines; the points spread. Betting on a team to win or lose will never get you anywhere, and will always have you coming out as the eventual loser. Because even the Patriots lose games against teams like Miami every once in awhile. Or USC loses to Stanford. Or Georgia loses to South Carolina. Win / loss bets are for suckers. Don't be a sucker. If you don't understand how betting the lines works, I'll explain it to you.
Let's take, for example, the upcoming, much-bally-hooed match-up of USC vs. OSU, two teams which ESPN will tell us are evenly matched. Okay, first thing you must understand, is that in betting the lines, never, EVER trust ESPN. ESPN is not "fair and balanced" to borrow another network's phrase, in the way they cover sports. I've already made it abundantly clear in a previous blog (which has almost 19,000 hits) that ESPN is patently biased to teams that exist in conferences which they, or their overlord ABC, has television contracts with. Why else would ESPN be the only sports entity to have the vast majority of their "experts" pick OSU to beat LSU when they were so obviously outclassed in that game? So don't trust ESPN or ABCsports when it comes to Pac-10, Big-10(11), and Big-XII football teams, but especially the two Rose Bowl conferences. In the same vein of fairness on my part, don't trust CBS.sportsline.com when it comes to SEC teams. Trust to common sense and what you can see with your eyes and hear with your ears. And although this sounds contrary to what you should believe: trust Vegas to show you how to bet.
Getting back to USC vs. OSU, your first question is now probably, "Why can't I trust ESPN on this game because they both have the television contracts, and are both in the Rose Bowl conferences, so there is no conflict of interest on ESPN's part, they can just be honest." Oh no, no, no. ESPN and ABC want this game to be viewed by as many people as possible. So they are going to lie, lie, lie to you. They are going to tell you these two teams are evenly-matched when they are anything but. The always biased Kirk Herbstreit and most of his cronies will probably even pick OSU to win this game (big surprise). But it is all lies. Who won't lie to you? Who won't buy into ESPN's lies? Vegas. The opening line for this game will probably be between 7 1/2 and 9 points. That may not seem very much to you and me, but to Vegas... those are HUGE opening lines. Vegas knows, like I know, that USC is the far superior team to OSU. They know USC is going to win this game. They want people to bet on OSU to either win or simply, cover the spread.
Okay, here's where I explain what that means. When a line opens, let's say the line opens at 7 1/2 for USC, that means that USC is a 7 1/2 point favorite, with OSU the underdog. Every bet has a favorite and an underdog. When you see it written in your local paper, it usually looks like this: USC - 7 1/2 OSU. Or, it could be written OSU + 7 1/2 USC. All the plus or minus means is who is getting the 7 1/2 point spread. The minus means that that USC is giving 7 1/2 points to OSU to make it even, and the plus means that OSU gets the 7 1/2 points to make it even. Same concept, different way of writing it. What it boils down to is that Vegas is saying that OSU will lose the game by more than 7 1/2 points, or, more than one touchdown. Or even more simple, if everything were considered even, the USC as a football team is 7 1/2 points better than OSU without even having to play. The reason for the 1/2 points? To avoid what is called a push, or tie, where no one wins. So when you bet the spread, there are four ways to bet smartly. Okay, here are the 4 smart bets you can make.
Bet 1 - Take OSU and the points. This DOES NOT mean you are picking OSU to win. You are simply picking OSU to lose by less than the spread, or in this case, you are betting on OSU to lose by less than 7 1/2 points. So if they lose by one touchdown or less, you win. But, if OSU happens to win by some million-to-one chance, you still win! Isn't that great! This would have been the smart bet in Super Bowl, as I'll explain later.
Bet 2 - Take USC but give the points. This is almost the same bet as above, but you are picking USC to win, but not cover the spread. This means you expect USC to win, but they won't cover the 7 1/2 point spread, meaning they will beat OSU by a touchdown or less. But, if OSU wins, even though you gave them the points, USC still lost, so you lose. So this is usually a more risky bet than Bet 1.
Bet 3 - Take USC to cover. This is simple enough. This means you are betting that USC will win the game by 7 1/2 points or more. Since there are no such thing as 1/2 points in a game, then USC has to win the game by 8 points or more. If they do so, you win the bet. If they only win the game by a single touchdown, then you lose. Simple enough.
Bet 4 - Take OSU to win. Remember how I said that betting on a team to win is a sucker bet? Okay, I lied; it's not always a sucker bet, but it has to depend on a very specific circumstance. It is NOT a sucker bet when you are betting with the trend. All of those ESPN idiots who bet on OSU to beat LSU in the MNC this past season were suckers, because they bet against the trend. What does that mean? What is the trend? Let's get to rule number 3.
Rule 3. NEVER, EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BUCK THE TREND!!!
This is the common sense rule to gambling. This is the rule that people who lose their bets always either forget or refuse to follow. What does it mean to buck the trend? It means that you go against already established rules, or culture, or signs, or any other kind of quantifiable set of variables that say Team A will always, an acceptable percentage of the time, do this.
What is an acceptable percentage? In gambling, I say that is 75% is acceptable for the trend rule. I have a friend who believes that 66%, or 2/3's is the acceptable line, and I've used that line to make choices in the past. Regardless, if Team A plays in a game where they have either a) never covered the spread, or b) haven't done so 3 out 4 times, or maybe 2 out 3 times, then you do not, under any circumstances, bet on Team A to cover the spread. In fact, you make the opposite bet. You bet on Team B and take the points. Because if Team A has issues covering the spread, even if they're the favorite, then an upset is actually highly probable, which is why you also DO NOT pick Team A but give the points. Because in doing so, if they ARE upset and lose, even if you gave the points, meaning you pick them not to cover the spread and win, then you still lose. So you protect yourself by taking Team B to lose, but cover the spread.
Now, take Team A and Team B and replace them with Patriots and Giants. The trend with the Patriots is that in the two Super Bowls prior to XLII, that 100% of the time they DID NOT cover their double-digit spreads. In fact, their trend is that they win Super Bowls by 3 points 100% of the time. So when Vegas opened the Patriots -13 1/2 last Super Bowl, any idiot who can simply follow the trend would have taken the Giants and the points. Meaning the Giants would lose by less than the spread. And hey, if the Giants were to win, you'd still win, which is what happened. This is the can't lose bet because you are not bucking the trend.
As I said before, teams that have trouble covering their point spreads are teams that are always ripe for an upset, because Vegas is more right about that team's chances of winning than the idiot "experts" who are on College Gameday or NFL Live. So, when Vegas says that New England should be a 13 1/2 point favorite, that means that the Patriots really are good enough to beat the Giants by that much. Unfortunately, the Patriots, while always being good enough, never cover those spreads in the biggest games an acceptable amount of the time. I believe in the AFC Championship Games they've played with Belichik, they've only covered once. Out of 5 times. That's an 80% rate of not covering the spread as the favorite, of which they were each time. In the 4 Super Bowls, they were the favorite three times. Out of those three times against the Panthers, Eagles, and Giants, they didn't cover the spread one single time. That's 100% of the time. That's a hell of a trend. Now, if they make it this year against let's say, New Orleans, and they open up as a 9 1/2 point favorite and win by 10 points, well, that's the first time they've covered the spread as the favorite. Meaning that 75% of the time, they don't cover the spread. That is still an acceptable percentage to bet against them covering the spread in the future, even if you would have lose the best this last time.
Never go against the trend, even if doing so means you lost a bet once or twice. If that happens, look at the trend percentages again, and if they are still 75% or above (or 66% or above for those more adventurous types), then STICK WITH THE TREND.
Why? Because you are still winning 3 out of every 4 bets, meaning you're still coming out ahead 2 times out of 4 (because one win is cancelled out by one loss if you keep your bets at the same monetary level).
People who buck the trend can win big every once in awhile, but over the course of time, they will wind up being HUGE money losers.
Take my friend buckifreak, a very gentlemanly blogger on this very site, who wants me to bet with him on the USC and OSU game based upon my prediction I made based on OSU's trend against teams with athletically superior defenses, or more plainly, against teams who are more athletic. Now, while I fully believe that OSU will lose by 3 scores, even though this is a educated guess based on the trends, I would never make an illegal bet such as that in the first place, but hypothetically, if I were, I would only bet the established opening point spread. As far the OSU trends against teams like USC, let's take a look at them objectively.
In the last five games that OSU has played against teams which have a higher quality of athlete on then OSU does based on on-field performance and not highly questionable and subjective recruiting rankings, they've won one game and lost four games.
They lost to Texas in 2005. They beat Texas in 2006. They lost to Florida in Jan. 2007. They lost to Illinois in 2007. And they lost to LSU in Jan. 2008. That's a trend of losing to teams with better athletes than they have 80% of the time.
Another side trend is that OSU is 0-9 in Bowl Games against SEC teams. That's a trend of losing to SEC teams in bowl games 100% of the time.
Yet another side trend is that OSU is 0-2 against the SEC Champion in the MNC game. That is a trend of losing to athletically superior SEC teams in the MNC.
Yet another trend is that OSU, against the SEC Champion in the MNC has 100% of the time not covered the spread, as a favorite or underdog. They were double-digit favorites to beat Florida and lost by 27 points in 2007. They were, I believe 7 1/2 point dogs against LSU, and wound up losing by 14, although, if not for the spread-betters worst fear, the last-minute "useless" touchdown while the other team's scrubs are on the field, they would have lost by 21. That "useless" touchdown has ruined more spread bets than I care to remember, but I digress.
So, when you add up all of those trends, if USC opens as a 7 1/2 point favorite at home against OSU, what would you, the now informed spread better do?
That's right. You avoid OSU like the plague and take USC to cover. Now, let's say the script is flipped, and USC is playing at OSU, and for some reason, Vegas looses it's collective mind and opens up with OSU favored by 3 1/2. What would you do then?
That's right, you would take USC to win outright, because that line, that points spread so insanely contradicts the trend, that you are damn close to 100% to cashing in an even bigger payday at Vegas's expense. This does happen from time to time, and when it does, you better take advantage of it.
Rule 4. Stay away from prop bets.
This is a simple rule. Don't break it. Prop bets, or Proposition Bets, are losers with usually a no better chance of 50% to win. Meaning, that your best chance of winning a prop bet is 50%, and that most of the prop bets you would make are actually a lot lower.
These are totally sucker bets. "Who wins the coin toss?" "Who scores the first touchdown, either team or individual player." "How many fumbles per game?" "How many field goals per game?"
These are all loser bets. Don't bet them. Stay away. They are a waste of you money. If you insist on throwing away your money like that, at least give it to me, how about that? Because either way, your money is just as good as gone.
Don't be stupid. Don't be a sucker. Don't do prop bets.
Rule 5. If you must bet the over / under, bet the under for NFL games and the over for college games, every time.
Okay, I'm not a fan of the over / under bets, and the reason is, the amount of total points scored in a football game, either college or pro, is so subjective to so many outside forces and variables, especially weather (rain, cold, snow, and especially wind), time of day the game is played, and in-game injuries.
But when I've made them, I've stuck to this very simple rule which is backed up by trends.
Over / under bets simply mean you are betting on what the total points scored in a game will be. Vegas will put out a total score of let's say, 38 for an Oklahoma vs. Texas game, or 24 for a Titans vs. Jacksonville game.
Here's the thing, in the NFL, most games tend not to be shoot-outs. The NFL is a defense dominated league, even with the Patriots and Colts skewing the numbers. In college, it is an offense dominated sport, even with some really great defenses in the SEC skewing their numbers, or conferences like the ACC which are so offensively inept that they are, well, offensive.
So, by those simple trends, if you bet a lot of over /unders, you'll come out even or a winner if you bet the under the NFL and the over in college football.
Just think of all of those high-scoring college football nail-biting shoot-out games, which are also helped along by the overtime rule. Think of the last two Georgia-Auburn games. Or anytime USC and Oregon get into it.
Just think about all of those nail-biting defensive battles in the NFL which always seem to come down to three points for a final score of 17-14, or 13-10.
If you must bet over / unders, following this last of my Five Simple Rules for Winning at Football Gambling will at least keep you from losing too much money. But remember, this is a GENERAL rule for betting over / unders. As I said, I don't like to bet over / unders. I don't think they're quite like the sucker bets that prop bets are, but there are research you can do to better understand the more specific trends that go along with making winning over / under bets. So think of Rule 5 more like a simple guideline, and overarching rule that covers all bases for this particular kind of betting. With that in mind, also remember that there are much more specific rules which I could care less about which you can find out for yourself if you feel compelled to make these bets more than once every blue moon.
So that's it, y'all. Follow these rules, and you more than likely won't be a loser. They're very simple, very easy to follow, and as long as you use common sense and your head, not your heart, the worst that will happen to you on most occasions is that you'll come up even.
But remember, coming out even is still considered a win for you. Don't forget that!
As always, thanks for reading, y'all.
Before I begin, I want to make it plain to everyone who may view this page that I do not condone or participate in illegal or illicit gambling activities, and I am sure that neither do TSN.com or any people, businesses, or corporations connected with TSN.com. If someone, anyone feels the need to gamble on any sporting event, I advise that you do so through a legal and certified sports book, either in an area which permits such businesses such as Vegas or Atlantic City, or through any accredited online agency. If anyone viewing this page has an addiction to gambling which could be ruining your lives and the lives of your loved-ones, I ask you to seek help by calling Gambler's Anonymous at 888-GA-HELPS (888-424-3577). Thank you.
Okay, with the very necessary disclaimer out of the way, I also want to say that I don't personally gamble right now in my life for the simple reason that as a student, I simply do not have the money to do so. When I graduate this next spring and begin my career, once the bulk of my debts are paid off, I intend to take a week-long trip out to Vegas and sit at the Hold 'Em and Blackjack tables and frequent a few of the sports books.
While I don't gamble right now, I have gambled in the past, and am fairly proficient at it. Why? Because I play to the odds. I don't take unnecessary risks or chances. It's why I'm doing so well right now in my fantasy playoff basketball leagues. I've also won a few pools in my day. I'm a decent enough poker player. And I definitely would never allow my personal sports allegiances to cloud a bet, like I frequently did as a young, foolish child. I have a very simple system, especially when it comes to betting on football; it's just five simple rules.
These are logical rules that have their roots in my love for hold 'em and blackjack. Anyone who has played these games knows that the people who have the most success are the ones who play the odds. Yes, by playing the odds, you may lose some, but you also win some. In gambling, I consider coming out even winning, and so should you. Because when you come out even, that means the house doesn't win, and for you personally, that's a win.
People who lose at blackjack ride hot streaks past the point of logic. They may have made a desperate play and hit on 16 to recoup their losses and actually won. So then they make other stupid decisions that fly in the face of common sense until they've lost everything. In Hold 'Em, if you have junk after the flop, you fold without question, unless you have a possible straight draw. Then you wait for the turn. If you don't nail it on the turn, then you fold. You never take junk or a straight draw in your hand hoping the river bails you out with some miracle card you need. That's stupid. You see? Common sense. Play the odds, not a "feeling." Not "intuition." You fold if you have junk after the flop because it's better to lose the little ante you had to throw into the pot than the big raises down the line. Logic. If you play this way, you're more likely to break even or actually win, than lose.
Sports betting, especially football, is the same way. Football is the easiest sport to bet, because it's the easiest sport to win bets in. Betting baseball is foolish, unless the year is 1995, and you're betting on Greg Maddux to win a ballgame. Betting hockey and basketball, while not as stupid as betting baseball, is also not as sure as betting football, but they have their own rules. Like never bet on a team who's playing their second game in two nights on the road. For hockey and basketball, that rule is the same, and is sacrosanct.
But in football, there are only five simple rules you must follow; so let's talk about them.
Rule 1. Don't allow your personal sports team allegiances to cloud your judgment.
This is the most important rule there is when betting football games. The sports books in Vegas count on people betting with their hearts and not their heads. That's how people lose, and Vegas wins. How many Pats fans either stupidly bet on the Patriots to cover the spread in the Super Bowl or win out-right? Well, if they were all smart, none of them should of, and we'll get into why soon. Yes, sometimes betting with your heart can actually win you a lot of money, in a once-in-a-million-shot kinda way. So to all of the New York Giant fans who bet the Giants to win out-right (the stupid bet) instead of betting them to cover the spread (the smart bet), y'all won a lot of money. But you need to understand the scarcity of winning that kind of bet, and the fact that it'll never happen again in that way in your life time. In fact, Vegas is hoping you forget that fact and make more stupid bets like that, because there's nothing like winning while betting stupid to encourage more stupid betting. So while Vegas took the huge hit on all the Giants fans who made the stupid bet and won, trust me, they know they'll get their money back plus a whole lot more from those same stupid people who bet stupid. Because stupid people who bet stupid is the reason why Vegas is still around. Because Vegas isn't stupid. They take advantage of those who are; those who bet stupid. Don't be that person.
Rule 2. Never bet on teams simply to "win" or "lose" games; stick to the spread!
Betting wins or losses is a sucker bet. Always stick to the betting lines; the points spread. Betting on a team to win or lose will never get you anywhere, and will always have you coming out as the eventual loser. Because even the Patriots lose games against teams like Miami every once in awhile. Or USC loses to Stanford. Or Georgia loses to South Carolina. Win / loss bets are for suckers. Don't be a sucker. If you don't understand how betting the lines works, I'll explain it to you.
Let's take, for example, the upcoming, much-bally-hooed match-up of USC vs. OSU, two teams which ESPN will tell us are evenly matched. Okay, first thing you must understand, is that in betting the lines, never, EVER trust ESPN. ESPN is not "fair and balanced" to borrow another network's phrase, in the way they cover sports. I've already made it abundantly clear in a previous blog (which has almost 19,000 hits) that ESPN is patently biased to teams that exist in conferences which they, or their overlord ABC, has television contracts with. Why else would ESPN be the only sports entity to have the vast majority of their "experts" pick OSU to beat LSU when they were so obviously outclassed in that game? So don't trust ESPN or ABCsports when it comes to Pac-10, Big-10(11), and Big-XII football teams, but especially the two Rose Bowl conferences. In the same vein of fairness on my part, don't trust CBS.sportsline.com when it comes to SEC teams. Trust to common sense and what you can see with your eyes and hear with your ears. And although this sounds contrary to what you should believe: trust Vegas to show you how to bet.
Getting back to USC vs. OSU, your first question is now probably, "Why can't I trust ESPN on this game because they both have the television contracts, and are both in the Rose Bowl conferences, so there is no conflict of interest on ESPN's part, they can just be honest." Oh no, no, no. ESPN and ABC want this game to be viewed by as many people as possible. So they are going to lie, lie, lie to you. They are going to tell you these two teams are evenly-matched when they are anything but. The always biased Kirk Herbstreit and most of his cronies will probably even pick OSU to win this game (big surprise). But it is all lies. Who won't lie to you? Who won't buy into ESPN's lies? Vegas. The opening line for this game will probably be between 7 1/2 and 9 points. That may not seem very much to you and me, but to Vegas... those are HUGE opening lines. Vegas knows, like I know, that USC is the far superior team to OSU. They know USC is going to win this game. They want people to bet on OSU to either win or simply, cover the spread.
Okay, here's where I explain what that means. When a line opens, let's say the line opens at 7 1/2 for USC, that means that USC is a 7 1/2 point favorite, with OSU the underdog. Every bet has a favorite and an underdog. When you see it written in your local paper, it usually looks like this: USC - 7 1/2 OSU. Or, it could be written OSU + 7 1/2 USC. All the plus or minus means is who is getting the 7 1/2 point spread. The minus means that that USC is giving 7 1/2 points to OSU to make it even, and the plus means that OSU gets the 7 1/2 points to make it even. Same concept, different way of writing it. What it boils down to is that Vegas is saying that OSU will lose the game by more than 7 1/2 points, or, more than one touchdown. Or even more simple, if everything were considered even, the USC as a football team is 7 1/2 points better than OSU without even having to play. The reason for the 1/2 points? To avoid what is called a push, or tie, where no one wins. So when you bet the spread, there are four ways to bet smartly. Okay, here are the 4 smart bets you can make.
Bet 1 - Take OSU and the points. This DOES NOT mean you are picking OSU to win. You are simply picking OSU to lose by less than the spread, or in this case, you are betting on OSU to lose by less than 7 1/2 points. So if they lose by one touchdown or less, you win. But, if OSU happens to win by some million-to-one chance, you still win! Isn't that great! This would have been the smart bet in Super Bowl, as I'll explain later.
Bet 2 - Take USC but give the points. This is almost the same bet as above, but you are picking USC to win, but not cover the spread. This means you expect USC to win, but they won't cover the 7 1/2 point spread, meaning they will beat OSU by a touchdown or less. But, if OSU wins, even though you gave them the points, USC still lost, so you lose. So this is usually a more risky bet than Bet 1.
Bet 3 - Take USC to cover. This is simple enough. This means you are betting that USC will win the game by 7 1/2 points or more. Since there are no such thing as 1/2 points in a game, then USC has to win the game by 8 points or more. If they do so, you win the bet. If they only win the game by a single touchdown, then you lose. Simple enough.
Bet 4 - Take OSU to win. Remember how I said that betting on a team to win is a sucker bet? Okay, I lied; it's not always a sucker bet, but it has to depend on a very specific circumstance. It is NOT a sucker bet when you are betting with the trend. All of those ESPN idiots who bet on OSU to beat LSU in the MNC this past season were suckers, because they bet against the trend. What does that mean? What is the trend? Let's get to rule number 3.
Rule 3. NEVER, EVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BUCK THE TREND!!!
This is the common sense rule to gambling. This is the rule that people who lose their bets always either forget or refuse to follow. What does it mean to buck the trend? It means that you go against already established rules, or culture, or signs, or any other kind of quantifiable set of variables that say Team A will always, an acceptable percentage of the time, do this.
What is an acceptable percentage? In gambling, I say that is 75% is acceptable for the trend rule. I have a friend who believes that 66%, or 2/3's is the acceptable line, and I've used that line to make choices in the past. Regardless, if Team A plays in a game where they have either a) never covered the spread, or b) haven't done so 3 out 4 times, or maybe 2 out 3 times, then you do not, under any circumstances, bet on Team A to cover the spread. In fact, you make the opposite bet. You bet on Team B and take the points. Because if Team A has issues covering the spread, even if they're the favorite, then an upset is actually highly probable, which is why you also DO NOT pick Team A but give the points. Because in doing so, if they ARE upset and lose, even if you gave the points, meaning you pick them not to cover the spread and win, then you still lose. So you protect yourself by taking Team B to lose, but cover the spread.
Now, take Team A and Team B and replace them with Patriots and Giants. The trend with the Patriots is that in the two Super Bowls prior to XLII, that 100% of the time they DID NOT cover their double-digit spreads. In fact, their trend is that they win Super Bowls by 3 points 100% of the time. So when Vegas opened the Patriots -13 1/2 last Super Bowl, any idiot who can simply follow the trend would have taken the Giants and the points. Meaning the Giants would lose by less than the spread. And hey, if the Giants were to win, you'd still win, which is what happened. This is the can't lose bet because you are not bucking the trend.
As I said before, teams that have trouble covering their point spreads are teams that are always ripe for an upset, because Vegas is more right about that team's chances of winning than the idiot "experts" who are on College Gameday or NFL Live. So, when Vegas says that New England should be a 13 1/2 point favorite, that means that the Patriots really are good enough to beat the Giants by that much. Unfortunately, the Patriots, while always being good enough, never cover those spreads in the biggest games an acceptable amount of the time. I believe in the AFC Championship Games they've played with Belichik, they've only covered once. Out of 5 times. That's an 80% rate of not covering the spread as the favorite, of which they were each time. In the 4 Super Bowls, they were the favorite three times. Out of those three times against the Panthers, Eagles, and Giants, they didn't cover the spread one single time. That's 100% of the time. That's a hell of a trend. Now, if they make it this year against let's say, New Orleans, and they open up as a 9 1/2 point favorite and win by 10 points, well, that's the first time they've covered the spread as the favorite. Meaning that 75% of the time, they don't cover the spread. That is still an acceptable percentage to bet against them covering the spread in the future, even if you would have lose the best this last time.
Never go against the trend, even if doing so means you lost a bet once or twice. If that happens, look at the trend percentages again, and if they are still 75% or above (or 66% or above for those more adventurous types), then STICK WITH THE TREND.
Why? Because you are still winning 3 out of every 4 bets, meaning you're still coming out ahead 2 times out of 4 (because one win is cancelled out by one loss if you keep your bets at the same monetary level).
People who buck the trend can win big every once in awhile, but over the course of time, they will wind up being HUGE money losers.
Take my friend buckifreak, a very gentlemanly blogger on this very site, who wants me to bet with him on the USC and OSU game based upon my prediction I made based on OSU's trend against teams with athletically superior defenses, or more plainly, against teams who are more athletic. Now, while I fully believe that OSU will lose by 3 scores, even though this is a educated guess based on the trends, I would never make an illegal bet such as that in the first place, but hypothetically, if I were, I would only bet the established opening point spread. As far the OSU trends against teams like USC, let's take a look at them objectively.
In the last five games that OSU has played against teams which have a higher quality of athlete on then OSU does based on on-field performance and not highly questionable and subjective recruiting rankings, they've won one game and lost four games.
They lost to Texas in 2005. They beat Texas in 2006. They lost to Florida in Jan. 2007. They lost to Illinois in 2007. And they lost to LSU in Jan. 2008. That's a trend of losing to teams with better athletes than they have 80% of the time.
Another side trend is that OSU is 0-9 in Bowl Games against SEC teams. That's a trend of losing to SEC teams in bowl games 100% of the time.
Yet another side trend is that OSU is 0-2 against the SEC Champion in the MNC game. That is a trend of losing to athletically superior SEC teams in the MNC.
Yet another trend is that OSU, against the SEC Champion in the MNC has 100% of the time not covered the spread, as a favorite or underdog. They were double-digit favorites to beat Florida and lost by 27 points in 2007. They were, I believe 7 1/2 point dogs against LSU, and wound up losing by 14, although, if not for the spread-betters worst fear, the last-minute "useless" touchdown while the other team's scrubs are on the field, they would have lost by 21. That "useless" touchdown has ruined more spread bets than I care to remember, but I digress.
So, when you add up all of those trends, if USC opens as a 7 1/2 point favorite at home against OSU, what would you, the now informed spread better do?
That's right. You avoid OSU like the plague and take USC to cover. Now, let's say the script is flipped, and USC is playing at OSU, and for some reason, Vegas looses it's collective mind and opens up with OSU favored by 3 1/2. What would you do then?
That's right, you would take USC to win outright, because that line, that points spread so insanely contradicts the trend, that you are damn close to 100% to cashing in an even bigger payday at Vegas's expense. This does happen from time to time, and when it does, you better take advantage of it.
Rule 4. Stay away from prop bets.
This is a simple rule. Don't break it. Prop bets, or Proposition Bets, are losers with usually a no better chance of 50% to win. Meaning, that your best chance of winning a prop bet is 50%, and that most of the prop bets you would make are actually a lot lower.
These are totally sucker bets. "Who wins the coin toss?" "Who scores the first touchdown, either team or individual player." "How many fumbles per game?" "How many field goals per game?"
These are all loser bets. Don't bet them. Stay away. They are a waste of you money. If you insist on throwing away your money like that, at least give it to me, how about that? Because either way, your money is just as good as gone.
Don't be stupid. Don't be a sucker. Don't do prop bets.
Rule 5. If you must bet the over / under, bet the under for NFL games and the over for college games, every time.
Okay, I'm not a fan of the over / under bets, and the reason is, the amount of total points scored in a football game, either college or pro, is so subjective to so many outside forces and variables, especially weather (rain, cold, snow, and especially wind), time of day the game is played, and in-game injuries.
But when I've made them, I've stuck to this very simple rule which is backed up by trends.
Over / under bets simply mean you are betting on what the total points scored in a game will be. Vegas will put out a total score of let's say, 38 for an Oklahoma vs. Texas game, or 24 for a Titans vs. Jacksonville game.
Here's the thing, in the NFL, most games tend not to be shoot-outs. The NFL is a defense dominated league, even with the Patriots and Colts skewing the numbers. In college, it is an offense dominated sport, even with some really great defenses in the SEC skewing their numbers, or conferences like the ACC which are so offensively inept that they are, well, offensive.
So, by those simple trends, if you bet a lot of over /unders, you'll come out even or a winner if you bet the under the NFL and the over in college football.
Just think of all of those high-scoring college football nail-biting shoot-out games, which are also helped along by the overtime rule. Think of the last two Georgia-Auburn games. Or anytime USC and Oregon get into it.
Just think about all of those nail-biting defensive battles in the NFL which always seem to come down to three points for a final score of 17-14, or 13-10.
If you must bet over / unders, following this last of my Five Simple Rules for Winning at Football Gambling will at least keep you from losing too much money. But remember, this is a GENERAL rule for betting over / unders. As I said, I don't like to bet over / unders. I don't think they're quite like the sucker bets that prop bets are, but there are research you can do to better understand the more specific trends that go along with making winning over / under bets. So think of Rule 5 more like a simple guideline, and overarching rule that covers all bases for this particular kind of betting. With that in mind, also remember that there are much more specific rules which I could care less about which you can find out for yourself if you feel compelled to make these bets more than once every blue moon.
So that's it, y'all. Follow these rules, and you more than likely won't be a loser. They're very simple, very easy to follow, and as long as you use common sense and your head, not your heart, the worst that will happen to you on most occasions is that you'll come up even.
But remember, coming out even is still considered a win for you. Don't forget that!
As always, thanks for reading, y'all.
Yeah, I know I'm a weirdo for betting the Preseason. This is my system to the preseason: Team with bigger pressure and bigger purpose for playing, will cover, most of the time. I kid you not, went from 80 units to 300 units during the preseason. Just a thought to consider for your benefit.
