SBR Blackjack April Fools Contest, we're not kidding...

KGambler · 03-23-11, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by mattmc419

Odds are about 1 in 1713 (not counting pushes), meaning over 17000 hands have to be played on average for it to happen once.

This is not correct. This would be the case if every 10 hands were a discreet bundle and you had to win the ten hands straight within one of those discreet bundles. In other words, if you broke the 17,000 hands up into 1,700 segments of 10 hands, and you had to win the 10 straight hands within one of those segments, than your math would make some sense. But the reality is that every time you lose, you have a new chance to start a streak. For this reason you have many more than 1,700 chances to win 10 in a row if you play 17,000 hands. You are not arbitrarily held to 1,700 segments of 10 hands.

So over 170,000 points have to be risked. Assuming a standard ~43.31% win percentage in blackjack, 96373 points will be lost for every 1000 won from the promo.

This is also the wrong way to look at it. You have to look at NET losses. Assuming a house advantage of 0.5%, you would be "expected" to lose 850 points. Of course, actual results would be tend to be much higher or lower (you can even win), but that is the expected loss. And again, the 170,000 wagered is not even a valid number to begin with.

If you assume that SBR blackjack is not rigged, then this promotion has a positive expectation.*

* Also assuming you know how to play black jack.

lolguy999 · 03-23-11, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by downsouth

How many points will be wasted trying this. I can't wait

Originally posted by Carseller4

Winning 10 hands in a row? At SBR Casino? It ain't going to happen. As much as I have played BJ in the past. I have never won 10 in a row.

Hey hey hey, that's what we said about the SBR royal flushes in poker remember? The casino will be specially twigged so that 1 player will go on a 10 win streak while 2000 others will go on a 10 hand losing streak. It's possible boys, +2000 odds sometimes do hit

KGambler · 03-23-11, 11:36 PM

http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/Streak-Calculator-enter.html

successes in a row - Gambling and Probability - Probability Theory Forum

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/successes-row-904091/

Hi, this is exactly what i just wanted to post :-) I think a is inverted with b or viceversa :-)) If a considers the 'exact' streak length th

KGambler · 03-23-11, 11:41 PM

Where it says "pushes will not count", does this mean pushes are ignored or does this mean a push will end a streak?

mattmc419 · 03-23-11, 11:41 PM

Ah, yeah. duh lol

Assuming the odds are fair, it's not as unlikely as I made it sound.

Thanks KGambler!

Edit: Pushes don't count as part of the streak, but the streak continues.

yisman · 03-23-11, 11:57 PM

KG, it means pushes do not end the streak.

VegasInsider · 03-24-11, 12:02 AM

SBR makes a killing off this contest....nice try though. Posters are a little smarter than that.

KGambler · 03-24-11, 12:24 AM

OK, then according to the calculator I linked:

- if we ignore pushes (they don't even count as a "hand")
- Win (given no tie) 47.51%
- Loss (given no tie) 52.49%

Then it takes 2,255 hands (not counting pushes) to have an even money chance to have a streak of 10 straight wins (or better). I am not sure what rules SBR blackjack uses, so those win/loss percentages should just be an approximation. So we can say "about" 2,500 hands...

I do think 20 people will wind up claiming this prize.

yisman · 03-24-11, 12:55 AM

The amount of hands that would have to be played in one day for 20 to have a good chance to win it is staggering.

KGambler · 03-24-11, 01:02 AM

SBR has a lot of members. How many people joined the free NCAA bracket? It was somewhere around 6-800 if I remember correctly. And it was only open to people who have accounts at Legends!

MexicanStallion · 03-24-11, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by VegasInsider

SBR makes a killing off this contest....nice try though. Posters are a little smarter than that.

You have not been around SBR long enough then.

VegasInsider · 03-24-11, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by MexicanStallion

You have not been around SBR long enough then.

True

Deal away, SBR

GOIRISH · 03-24-11, 02:09 AM

impossible, dealer gets atleast 3 bj's out of every 10 hands.

JACK MATZ · 03-24-11, 02:21 AM

LOL.
10 hands in a row.
C'MON MAN!!!!!

will2survive · 03-24-11, 02:59 AM

good luck to everyone at the SBR Casino where dreams come true!

shaunovery · 03-24-11, 03:24 AM

Impossible winning 10 in a row

vividjohn45 · 03-24-11, 03:30 AM

sports trivia.

Question: which famous poker star actually won 10 hands in a row at blackjack.

answer: Russ Hamilton.

vividjohn45 · 03-24-11, 03:39 AM

then on russ Hamilton's posting avatar. will be a SBR 10 Black Jack hands won in a row golden stamp.

SBR 10 Black Jack Hands won in a Row. 1000 Pts.

mikejamm · 03-24-11, 04:08 AM

Ten wins in a row?

You should run a contest and pay out based on how many times the dealer hits 21 to your 20! Now there's a fuk'in contest!

ryanspeer2001 · 03-24-11, 04:10 AM

Good luck on the promo guys but sbr will have a field day with this one.

GOIRISH · 03-24-11, 04:20 AM

the people with enough points to actually play for long enough to win 10 hand in a row, got there points from staying out of the casino

vividjohn45 · 03-24-11, 04:22 AM

russ, as always. enjoy the fruitz of your labor. wsop, ub, and now sbr black jack fool's contest.

vividjohn45 · 03-24-11, 04:22 AM

vividjohn45 · 03-24-11, 04:23 AM

this sh.it is making me laugh my ass off.

pouroupoupou · 03-24-11, 04:44 AM

Cannot be done.

Roadtrip635 · 03-24-11, 05:09 AM

Originally posted by KGambler

SBR has a lot of members. How many people joined the free NCAA bracket? It was somewhere around 6-800 if I remember correctly. And it was only open to people who have accounts at Legends!

That was a FREE contest and you can open an acct without depositing any cash. To win the the 1000 pts, you have to gamble your own pts.(minimum 10 pts/hand) to make it happen. There are alot of point poor members that don't have enough points to attempt a decent run at it. There probably won't be the sheer numbers of people attempting to statistically make the max of 20 winners.

Now if there was a BJ tourney similar to the poker tourneys, that would be cool. Instead of knocking ppl out, a % of players would move to the next timed round and so on. Maybe do a 2 hour tourney with 10 or 12 minutes/round. Or maybe give all entrants 500 "chips" and turn them loose on the BJ tables for 60 minutes. Prizes the top 5 or 10 chip leaders. The software probably cannot be configured to attempt something like that though.

StraitShooter · 03-24-11, 05:14 AM

Has got to be a joke..insulting if you think the posters are stupid nuff to try it

make it lose ten hands in a row and contest would be more enticing..even then..you should doing something nice for us posters after pulling this prank..our christmas stockings were quite weak this year compared to last when sbr gave every punk in town who posted xmas day 50 beans

give every poster who posts a joke 20 points on april fools day..we need it!

Wulfman14 · 03-24-11, 05:27 AM

casino is bullshit. a lot of times i am playing and there is a lag in some of the games . and then 5 seconds later i will go on a losing streak if i was winning. this happened in video poker, roulette, slots and black jack. fuk the casino

Fishhead · 03-24-11, 07:05 AM

Question....

Can a poster win more than once?

GOIRISH · 03-24-11, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Question....

Can a poster win more than once?

how can you when more than once when its impossible to even win once?

hockeyman30304 · 03-24-11, 08:22 AM

I think im dumb enough to try this

KGambler · 03-24-11, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

Question....

Can a poster win more than once?

We need that guy who crushed easystreet to make us a bot.

RichardGeorge · 03-24-11, 08:58 AM

Wow..how much is SBR gonna make off of this?

GOIRISH · 03-24-11, 09:04 AM

I would laugh if this turns out to be an april fools joke, with all the people who are going to be throwing points away

KGambler · 03-24-11, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by Roadtrip635

That was a FREE contest and you can open an acct without depositing any cash. To win the the 1000 pts, you have to gamble your own pts.(minimum 10 pts/hand) to make it happen. There are alot of point poor members that don't have enough points to attempt a decent run at it. There probably won't be the sheer numbers of people attempting to statistically make the max of 20 winners.

Now if there was a BJ tourney similar to the poker tourneys, that would be cool. Instead of knocking ppl out, a % of players would move to the next timed round and so on. Maybe do a 2 hour tourney with 10 or 12 minutes/round. Or maybe give all entrants 500 "chips" and turn them loose on the BJ tables for 60 minutes. Prizes the top 5 or 10 chip leaders. The software probably cannot be configured to attempt something like that though.

Good point... most posters are constantly points broke.

Furthermore, it's only a 1K points prize, so even the people who can do the math are not going to bother chasing an expectation of a few dollars profit per hour.

If 20 people win, it will be because thousands of people played.