Bad runs...

[Justin7]

lol at market getting smarter.

Look:
Its allways you against the oddsmaker. If you`r better than him, you`ll end up +units in the longrun. (you know this)

Keep doing your own thing and find the mistakes the oddsmakers make.

This is true if you are betting into openers. What if you want to bet more than opening limits allow?

[Brick]

I'd rather go 26-46 than 0-20.

you are one smart cookie

[big0mar]

If you hit a bad losing streak, it is always a good idea to go back and re-evaluate your system

Very likely the books have figured out where you were getting your edge from

This has happened to me before. When it does, I'll usually take a few days off and try to figure things out

[Ben Dover]

This is true if you are betting into openers. What if you want to bet more than opening limits allow?

Im not that "high" yet. But good question tough.
anyone with a aswer to this is highly "praised" (couse im getting there)
Guess "one" have to move that € around like a MF to bet at "your" limit if needed to.

Anyway:
to be in the "hole" sucks big..
The answer is to not bet bigger couse you loose right?

Man do I feel small coming to this forum. Thought I was "the king" of the betting indutry. Now i realize my 250€/bet (2,5% of BR) isn`t that big of a deal.

[Scorpion]

If you bet 1-2 units/game and yout bet size is 2-3% of your bankroll then do nothing
If you bet 10 units on one game and 1 unit on another and so on on another then I dont know

[tickingclock1]

Keep betting. Itll turn around.

[Domer]

anytime i have a bad day, and ive had a few 5-digit loss days, i usually just take a 20 minute shower and go over it many dozen times in my head attempting to reconstruct what went wrong. sometimes i chalk it up to variance, sometimes i install a new rule, but its nothing a shower and maybe a few hours of killing newbs on call of duty cant fix. losing runs can and will make you sharper, because they force you to reassess and not be lazy.

by the way, if you already know the answer, why are you lording it over people instead of just discussing it? a bit counter-intuitive.

[wtf]

Haha, well clearly one of us can't read. He definitely did not ask for advice. Moron.

What do you guys do when you hit a run like this? (This is a serious question, and there is a "right" answer I am looking for).


hey dumb fukin jagoff

what part of justin's question is not a question

question in the english language end with one of these ? for future reference

dont you have some food stamps to give to fat people ? stop posting loser

[Dark Horse]

Sunde,

You're the only one anywhere close.

If you won in the past, will you continue winning going forward? What if the market got smarter? How can you tell whether a winning approach in the past is still good, or is now crap due to a smarter market?

The market did get smarter. One way of telling is that basketball and football markets were upgraded faster than, say, hockey. Call it the Excel acceleration. Continuing to upgrade and improve models/methods is now far more important than in the past. RAS totals no longer work, do they? He's not the only sharp experiencing this. If longterm winners are 'all' having a harder time, something is going on. It used to be enough to be just ahead of the curve. But now?

Can sharps continue to win? Of course. But it is up to each to decide how far ahead he sets his goal (1 year ahead of market, 20 years ahead?), and, last but not least, how much or little of his trade he is willing to discuss with others. I could definitely see a movement towards greater secrecy.

[opie1988]

Sunde,

You're the only one anywhere close.

If you won in the past, will you continue winning going forward? What if the market got smarter? How can you tell whether a winning approach in the past is still good, or is now crap due to a smarter market?

How is this the "only one even close"?

This is exactly the same thing I said.....I simply used fewer words, and attempted to verbalize it in laymen's terms for the sake of the market audience.

The end result arrives at the same conclusion. As do many of the other posts. "Change Nothing" is a fairly ubiquitous answer when you are somewhat familiar with the source of the question.

Sooooooo........kinda thinkin' I deserve those 20 points as well. Let's go with 'em!

Thanks in advance, friend!

[DrStale]

What do you guys do when you hit a run like this? (This is a serious question, and there is a "right" answer I am looking for).


hey dumb fukin jagoff

what part of justin's question is not a question

question in the english language end with one of these ? for future reference

dont you have some food stamps to give to fat people ? stop posting loser

You can't be serious. Did you even read what you copied? There is a RIGHT answer he is looking for. He is looking to see if someone can give him the correct answer that he already has. Justin has been doing this since you were absorbing the Budweiser and Marlboros that your mom was downing while pregnant, he's not asking for advice and he's certainly not doing it in Players Talk.

Now run off to your trailer and your meth lab hillbilly.

[pavyracer]

I agree with DrStale. Justin knows the answer. He is just trying to see if any of us mortals know the answer. Justin is infallible just like the Pope.

[opie1988]

anytime i have a bad day, and ive had a few 5-digit loss days, i usually just take a 20 minute shower and go over it many dozen times in my head attempting to reconstruct what went wrong. sometimes i chalk it up to variance, sometimes i install a new rule, but its nothing a shower and maybe a few hours of killing newbs on call of duty cant fix. losing runs can and will make you sharper, because they force you to reassess and not be lazy.

by the way, if you already know the answer, why are you lording it over people instead of just discussing it? a bit counter-intuitive.

He can't help it.....he's an attorney.

[str]

Justin, is Conquering Risk your book?

[Cuse0323]

all-in 4 team parlay

[psv777ua]

Taking a few days or weeks break

[Dark Horse]

I agree with DrStale. Justin knows the answer. He is just trying to see if any of us mortals know the answer. Justin is infallible just like the Pope.

and the 26-46 (or whatever) record was just to set up the question.

[lyon804]

26-46 bad run and the question is what do you do?


Chances are if you are still moving forward you already know the answer.


The answer for the mass population is simple. RELOAD

[spargament]

fade yourself, seriously fade your own leans

[jsell2200]

If you know there is a right answer...why are you asking the question ???

[Justin7]

If you know there is a right answer...why are you asking the question ???

For the same reason I've done about 100 videos -- to help people do better at sports betting.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Write another book on how to handle cold streaks.

Have interviews with Landers, Gold, and Sammy. Kings of cold streaks

[eidolon]

if you are using a pure 100% system for your bets: then change nothing.

if you make the final say on your bets, then go back over them and learn from them.

[ssk13809]

And I thought I was having a bad run


Isn't this the guy who was challenging Bookmaker or something? Thinking he was good and said "Bookmaker bring it on". Looks like we know who got owned in that battle.

[Dark Horse]

if you are using a pure 100% system for your bets: then change nothing.

A model should always be checked for the present season. What works one year may not work the next. And what worked two years ago, but not last year, may be on again. That's one of the stranger things about sports.

The best models are for all seasons, but those require far more work than the relatively simple Excel approaches used by most modelers. If you want to take the model-for-all-seasons approach, that model should be considered 'in progress' until it can no longer be surprised. (and a 26-46 run is definitely in the surprise file: I would not take the know-it-all, it's-all-part-of-the-game approach here; the record is telling you you're missing something).

[RickySteve]

DH,

Which other handicapping books have inspired you?

[Dark Horse]

Ricky. You don't have the faintest clue of what I'm talking about. And we should definitely keep it that way.

By the way, does that book have pictures?

[Winner_13]

Its variance...if you think your method is not going to work in the future write your plays down on paper grade them and see how they do. see if openers moved in ur favor (if line moves against you) if you realize its not at the % it used to be (moving in ur favor) then that would be a sign market got smarter


other than that I watch a jjgold video, and realize its part of the process and to not change one bit if you got that edge and imagine when your winning again just like how you were b4, after a while you handle variance and expect it


I havent taken the time to read all the responses but what I said has probably already been said.

[big0mar]

Ricky. You don't have the faintest clue of what I'm talking about. And we should definitely keep it that way.

By the way, does that book have pictures?

[tofuman]

#1 you are taking way too many plays per day
#2 recalculate unit size everyday.. preservation of capital is key.

p.s. i also got crushed this weekend, sat went 2-10, and sunday went 0-3. ouch.. i am hurting from it.

[Whippit]

put remaining bankroll into bonds

[mr.ed]

I will take a stab at the right answer.

If a model has an expected win rate of 53% a game, you could determine the probablility of a 26-46 streak occuring. If this can be expected to occur once a season based on a rather agressive wagering pattern of 25 bets per day, then carry on business as usual. If, on the other hand, the probability of going through such a streak is one in a billion, then the model that is used to generate plays is most likely flawed.

Off the top of my head I would say the odds of flipping a 53% weighted coin 72 times and only "winning" 26 times would be 1 in a million....so there must be a problem with the coin/model.

[JohnGalt2341]

bang a fat chick and forget about it. keep bettin every game you have an edge

I was nearly certain that this was the correct answer.

For me, when I go on a bad run it usually makes me study harder and narrow down my picks to just my top few until I can get back in my groove again.

[FourLengthsClear]

I will take a stab at the right answer.

If a model has an expected win rate of 53% a game, you could determine the probablility of a 26-46 streak occuring. If this can be expected to occur once a season based on a rather agressive wagering pattern of 25 bets per day, then carry on business as usual. If, on the other hand, the probability of going through such a streak is one in a billion, then the model that is used to generate plays is most likely flawed.

Off the top of my head I would say the odds of flipping a 53% weighted coin 72 times and only "winning" 26 times would be 1 in a million....so there must be a problem with the coin/model.

I was suggest you use a calculator.
Not even close.

[mr.ed]

sorry...don't know how to calculate but would be interested in the correct answer....