2005 Record: 83-79, 3rd in NL East (tie)
Despite the fact the Marlins could struggle to draw more than a million fans in '06, this might be a great season to have the scorebook concession at old Joe Robbie. Even the most astute fans in Florida won’t recognize all of the names after a huge roster turnover in the offseason. And with the team’s future in the Sunshine State uncertain, Marlins fans may not have much time to get to know the new school of fish.
The only regulars back from 2005 are Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Brian Moehler. Josh Willingham, Jeremy Hermida and Chris Aguila, all of whom are being counted on as everyday players in 2006, combined for but 142 AB in 2005. Jason Vargas, listed as the #3 arm in the rotation on many charts, tossed less than 75 innings. Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco and Yusmiero Petit are battling for the #5 job in the rotation, and that quartet has a total of five major league starts, four by Olsen.
The new faces aren’t limited to the players, either. New manager Joe Girardi and his staff have a big job in front of them.
The guy I feel sorry for is Willis. The dude just seems to have so much fun, both on the mound and at the plate where he is one of the best hitting pitchers in the game. D-Train won more than a quarter of Florida’s 83 victories last season and could easily do the same this year. But he could also see his 22-10 record reversed despite pitching as well or better.
Brian Moehler would be a nice #5 starter. As a #2-#3 arm, he’s overmatched. Vargas will probably be considered the 2nd-best arm in the rotation by season’s end and has solid potential for years to come after a rapid progression through the minors. Sergio Mitre has been inconsistent, intermingling flashes of brilliance with bouts of horrendous. But he’ll have to be really awful this spring not to break camp in the rotation. The fight for the fifth and final starting role opens with Olsen and Johnson the favorites.
Joe Borowski is the frontrunner for the closer’s job, and his success or failure could ultimate determine if this is a 100-loss club or not. Even if he is successful, he might become trade bait by July when contenders come a’ knockin’. Pitching in front of him out of the pen is just about anyone’s guess right now. Veterans like Kerry Ligtenberg, Matt Herges, Eddie Gaillard and Jimmy Anderson are in camp looking for work. The youngsters, all of whom could stand at least another half-season in the minors, include Travis Bowyer, Randy Messenger, Mike Megrew and Chris Resop. Bowyer will have to really stink it up not to make the major league roster. Resop probably intrigues me the most since he has the Brandon Backe thing going. Originally drafted as an outfielder, Resop only has three years of professional experience on the hill and throws hard.
Hermida is being counted on to take over in right field for the Marlins this year, and he has a solid future. He hits for power, average and has decent speed. The rest of the outfield is a question mark. Eric Reed has the speed to play the big center field in Miami. Aguila has some lumber plus a little speed, and is the best candidate right now for left. Non-roster invites went to Matt Cepicky, Mark Little and Mike Kincaid; they are the top candidates for reserve roles.
Willingham has the most offensive potential among the Marlins catchers, but he seems lost at times when he puts on a mask and squats behind the plate. Matt Treanor is solid behind the plate but can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag. Miguel Olivo could prove to be the happy median between the two, but has never been able to put it all together at the same time.
Cabrera is the third baseman and the best bet in the lineup to hit 30 taters with a decent average and run production. He’ll also likely be pitched around about as much as Barry Bonds until the rest of the lineup starts to prove out. This season will also be a big test mentally for Cabrera with the knock on him being he’s immature and selfish. Even though he won’t turn 23 until just after the 2006 season starts, he has to take on a veteran presence in this clubhouse.
Hanley Ramirez, part of the compensation Florida received from Boston for pitcher Josh Beckett, has the shortstop job and is projected to be a solid midfielder. But with any other team, he’d likely start this year in Double-A. Pokey Reese gives the Marlins a little veteran leadership and great defense at second. He could take over at short if and when Florida wises up and sends Ramirez back to the minors for more seasoning.
Mike Jacobs and Wes Helms are your first sackers this year in Miami. Jacobs is the best bet for the bulk of the work since he’s younger and has 25+ HR potential. Helms could spell him against southpaws and even work a little at 3B when Cabrera needs a rest of if the Marlins eventually shift Cabrera back to the outfield.
The last time the Fish had a big sell off, between the 1997 and 1998 seasons, the team suffered a 38-win setback (92 to 54). It won’t be that dramatic this time, but that’s only because they’re coming off an 83-win showing in 2005.
Key Performer(s): Billy the Marlin has his work cut out for him this year trying to keep the few hundred fans in the stands entertained.
Camp Question(s): With the exception of Cabrera and Willis, there are questions.
My Play: The formula I use for win projections came out with 63 dubya’s for Florida this time. It probably should be worse, but the math I use makes it very hard to project at 100+ wins or 100+ losses. Pinnacle currently shows 64½ for the o/u. I’d go under at this time.
Despite the fact the Marlins could struggle to draw more than a million fans in '06, this might be a great season to have the scorebook concession at old Joe Robbie. Even the most astute fans in Florida won’t recognize all of the names after a huge roster turnover in the offseason. And with the team’s future in the Sunshine State uncertain, Marlins fans may not have much time to get to know the new school of fish.
The only regulars back from 2005 are Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Brian Moehler. Josh Willingham, Jeremy Hermida and Chris Aguila, all of whom are being counted on as everyday players in 2006, combined for but 142 AB in 2005. Jason Vargas, listed as the #3 arm in the rotation on many charts, tossed less than 75 innings. Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco and Yusmiero Petit are battling for the #5 job in the rotation, and that quartet has a total of five major league starts, four by Olsen.
The new faces aren’t limited to the players, either. New manager Joe Girardi and his staff have a big job in front of them.
The guy I feel sorry for is Willis. The dude just seems to have so much fun, both on the mound and at the plate where he is one of the best hitting pitchers in the game. D-Train won more than a quarter of Florida’s 83 victories last season and could easily do the same this year. But he could also see his 22-10 record reversed despite pitching as well or better.
Brian Moehler would be a nice #5 starter. As a #2-#3 arm, he’s overmatched. Vargas will probably be considered the 2nd-best arm in the rotation by season’s end and has solid potential for years to come after a rapid progression through the minors. Sergio Mitre has been inconsistent, intermingling flashes of brilliance with bouts of horrendous. But he’ll have to be really awful this spring not to break camp in the rotation. The fight for the fifth and final starting role opens with Olsen and Johnson the favorites.
Joe Borowski is the frontrunner for the closer’s job, and his success or failure could ultimate determine if this is a 100-loss club or not. Even if he is successful, he might become trade bait by July when contenders come a’ knockin’. Pitching in front of him out of the pen is just about anyone’s guess right now. Veterans like Kerry Ligtenberg, Matt Herges, Eddie Gaillard and Jimmy Anderson are in camp looking for work. The youngsters, all of whom could stand at least another half-season in the minors, include Travis Bowyer, Randy Messenger, Mike Megrew and Chris Resop. Bowyer will have to really stink it up not to make the major league roster. Resop probably intrigues me the most since he has the Brandon Backe thing going. Originally drafted as an outfielder, Resop only has three years of professional experience on the hill and throws hard.
Hermida is being counted on to take over in right field for the Marlins this year, and he has a solid future. He hits for power, average and has decent speed. The rest of the outfield is a question mark. Eric Reed has the speed to play the big center field in Miami. Aguila has some lumber plus a little speed, and is the best candidate right now for left. Non-roster invites went to Matt Cepicky, Mark Little and Mike Kincaid; they are the top candidates for reserve roles.
Willingham has the most offensive potential among the Marlins catchers, but he seems lost at times when he puts on a mask and squats behind the plate. Matt Treanor is solid behind the plate but can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag. Miguel Olivo could prove to be the happy median between the two, but has never been able to put it all together at the same time.
Cabrera is the third baseman and the best bet in the lineup to hit 30 taters with a decent average and run production. He’ll also likely be pitched around about as much as Barry Bonds until the rest of the lineup starts to prove out. This season will also be a big test mentally for Cabrera with the knock on him being he’s immature and selfish. Even though he won’t turn 23 until just after the 2006 season starts, he has to take on a veteran presence in this clubhouse.
Hanley Ramirez, part of the compensation Florida received from Boston for pitcher Josh Beckett, has the shortstop job and is projected to be a solid midfielder. But with any other team, he’d likely start this year in Double-A. Pokey Reese gives the Marlins a little veteran leadership and great defense at second. He could take over at short if and when Florida wises up and sends Ramirez back to the minors for more seasoning.
Mike Jacobs and Wes Helms are your first sackers this year in Miami. Jacobs is the best bet for the bulk of the work since he’s younger and has 25+ HR potential. Helms could spell him against southpaws and even work a little at 3B when Cabrera needs a rest of if the Marlins eventually shift Cabrera back to the outfield.
The last time the Fish had a big sell off, between the 1997 and 1998 seasons, the team suffered a 38-win setback (92 to 54). It won’t be that dramatic this time, but that’s only because they’re coming off an 83-win showing in 2005.
Key Performer(s): Billy the Marlin has his work cut out for him this year trying to keep the few hundred fans in the stands entertained.
Camp Question(s): With the exception of Cabrera and Willis, there are questions.
My Play: The formula I use for win projections came out with 63 dubya’s for Florida this time. It probably should be worse, but the math I use makes it very hard to project at 100+ wins or 100+ losses. Pinnacle currently shows 64½ for the o/u. I’d go under at this time.
