UNC -3 = Square.com?

[BigOrangeTitans]

EVERYONE is on this game. 76% is really one sided, yet the lines arent moving, if anything going down mostly.

KU played a much better elite eight team than UNC and everyone forgets how dominant BOTH teams have been. KU get the +3 from playing a ten seed in the elite eight, but they are the more balanced team. Books are BEGGING for UNC action...

Official play = KU +3
Complete and total trap game.

[BrUno0]

hahaha


"I love unc -3


but why does this feel like the biggest trap?"

-post by me last night.

[EaglesPhan36]

KU ML for me. Hoping they put ole Roy Boy in his place.

[awhitejackson]

traps possible...square possible....I respect your opinions hands down but I almost balked on 2 good plays last night when some chubby kid with sunglasses and a long haired wig came into good threads saying the whole square play thing...won like 500 on square plays last nite I guess.... I really see a blowout here 8+ points...I got UNC -3.....Im putting 2k on it....GL to you

[diogee]

traps possible...square possible....I respect your opinions hands down but I almost balked on 2 good plays last night when some chubby kid with sunglasses and a long haired wig came into good threads saying the whole square play thing...

[BrUno0]

Is louisville better than Kansas?

[BigOrangeTitans]

traps possible...square possible....I respect your opinions hands down but I almost balked on 2 good plays last night when some chubby kid with sunglasses and a long haired wig came into good threads saying the whole square play thing...won like 500 on square plays last nite I guess.... I really see a blowout here 8+ points...I got UNC -3.....Im putting 2k on it....GL to you

AWJ, thanks for comparing me to a chubby kid in glasses... This isnt a regular game though, this is the final four. And when it looks/smell/feels like a blowout, it usually is... The other way. Especially in big games...

[rjt721]

KU played a much better elite eight team than UNC

Davidson's not better than Louisville. Not even close.

[twtb19]

UNC beat Davidson as well so who cares....Louisville was playing great ball and UNC still answered the bell and closed out the game with Louisville trying to make a run. If UNC plays as well as they have been in the tourney they take this game. If they come out flat then KU has a chance.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Davidson's not better than Louisville. Not even close.

Just what the books wanted you to think. Do you think Louisville could beat wisconsin by 20?
No way no how.
This is the kind of thinking that gets you buried.

[BigOrangeTitans]

UNC beat Davidson as well so who cares....Louisville was playing great ball and UNC still answered the bell and closed out the game with Louisville trying to make a run. If UNC plays as well as they have been in the tourney they take this game. If they come out flat then KU has a chance.

Your referring to KU like their not even in the same league. Isnt KU the consensus pick in most brackets? What happened, did that team die? No, KU/UNC are very very equal teams.

[awhitejackson]

AWJ, thanks for comparing me to a chubby kid in glasses... This isnt a regular game though, this is the final four. And when it looks/smell/feels like a blowout, it usually is... The other way. Especially in big games...

I didnt realize that until i reread it...sorry bro...You know who im talkin about and I wouldnt have made that comparison....Sticking with this one tonite man...Gl to you

[BigOrangeTitans]

I didnt realize that until i reread it...sorry bro...You know who im talkin about and I wouldnt have made that comparison....Sticking with this one tonite man...Gl to you

NoProblem bud
GL as well

[rjt721]

Just what the books wanted you to think. Do you think Louisville could beat wisconsin by 20?
No way no how.
This is the kind of thinking that gets you buried.

No, the kind of thinking that will get you buried is your inclination to call everything a "trap." Kansas is the play solely because the majority of bets have come in on UNC and the line hasn't moved off '3?' If the line moves to 4 before tip, is UNC now the play? As usual, you're talking out of your ass.

Yes, Louisville could beat Wisky (the most overrated team in the country all season, as has been stated by myself and others on this forum for months) by 20. But what does that have to do with anything?

Could Lousiville lose by 7 to Western Michigan (as Davidson did)? Who cares? It's such narrow-minded thinking and has nothing to do with tonight's outcome.

[twtb19]

Your referring to KU like their not even in the same league. Isnt KU the consensus pick in most brackets? What happened, did that team die? No, KU/UNC are very very equal teams.

I think they are more equal than my post made it sound, you are correct there. I just think UNC is playing at a much higher level than they did during the regular season coming into this game...I think at the same time KU is playing about the same as it has all year. So unless KU picks up their game or UNC comes back down to earth I think UNC will win.

[BigOrangeTitans]

No, the kind of thinking that will get you buried is your inclination to call everything a "trap." Kansas is the play solely because the majority of bets have come in on UNC and the line hasn't moved off '3?' If the line moves to 4 before tip, is UNC now the play? As usual, you're talking out of your ass.

Yes, Louisville could beat Wisky (the most overrated team in the country all season, as has been stated by myself and others on this forum for months) by 20. But what does that have to do with anything?

Could Lousiville lose by 7 to Western Michigan (as Davidson did)? Who cares? It's such narrow-minded thinking and has nothing to do with tonight's outcome.

Im not betting this solely on that factor, i'm only using it as an edge. Wanna know my thoughts on the game? See where i said KU was the consensus pick for this tourney when the bracket came out. KU plays a davidson team that is STILL getting disrespected. They beat wisky by double digits in the tourney, and say what you wish about Wisky, they won ALOT of games this year. How is the west mich loss any different than louisville losing to dayton at home?

KU gets points ONLY because of the last game, and how dominant NC was against Louisville (in CHARLOTTE). This one is a trap, as you are letting KU's past performance against the most Underrated team in the tourney cloud your usually sharp brain. Pre tourney, if i gave you this matchup, and KU was +3 you would have pounced it. UNC showed me nothing morethan KU has...

[rjt721]

How is the west mich loss any different than louisville losing to dayton at home?

It's not. Both are equally irrelevant.

KU gets points ONLY because of the last game, and how dominant NC was against Louisville (in CHARLOTTE).

Kansas is getting points because of the infatuation many have with this UNC team, the Heels' 25 ppg margin of victory in the tournament, their standing as the regular season and conf. tourney champs in the ACC, what's perceived by some as the best conference in the country (at best the third conference this year), and Hansbrough's presence as the near consensus POY.

Was UNC really dominant against Louisville? Tie game with 10 min. remaining, followed by Hansbrough hitting three contested 18-footers down the stretch (he probably hits those 30% of the time), to give UNC a 10-point victory in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. I do agree with you that the home court atmosphere was a decided advantage for UNC.

This one is a trap, as you are letting KU's past performance against the most Underrated team in the tourney cloud your usually sharp brain. Pre tourney, if i gave you this matchup, and KU was +3 you would have pounced it. UNC showed me nothing morethan KU has...

For the record, I like Kansas in this one. Where I disagree with you is in regard to you referring to this game (and many others in the past) as a "trap." Why is it a trap? Because numbers indicate one side has received the majority of the action and there's been little line movement? "Fading the public" is not a new concept. What it is, however, is a 50/50 proposition in the long term. It just seems as though you're relying on these numbers too heavily. There are a number of reasons to like Kansas tonight, the least of which is that UNC is a "trap."

Good luck.

[BrUno0]

Could you list those reasons? but RJ, you made a great point, which really made me think about that UNC cover vs louisville, Hansbrough did come up huge, had he not, that game might have not covered, and this line, would most likely be different for the KU UNC game.

I was leaning with UNC since the open......now i'm starting to like kansas, this happened last week too, where i switched and took texas instead of memphis, who do you guys like in that game?

[BigOrangeTitans]

For the record, I like Kansas in this one. Where I disagree with you is in regard to you referring to this game (and many others in the past) as a "trap." Why is it a trap? Because numbers indicate one side has received the majority of the action and there's been little line movement? "Fading the public" is not a new concept. What it is, however, is a 50/50 proposition in the long term. It just seems as though you're relying on these numbers too heavily. There are a number of reasons to like Kansas tonight, the least of which is that UNC is a "trap."

Good luck.

The "fading the public" is not a new concept, i agree. If you look at just public %, your right, it is a 50% percentage. But if you look at games in the national spotlight, with traditional basketball names(UNC/duke/etc), and with line movement in the favorites favor or no line movement at all, you will see your % rises WELL above 50%.

Think about it, when you see EVERYONE betting this game NC -3, and alot of cappers on here doing that, you start to wonder. Then, when you see solid guys on here that have this game at NC -6 and the books give you -4. So the line gets hammered and the fave number goes up... oh wait, it went down. Why invite more action? Your begging for people to take UNC.

Also, if you see, in the "fading the public" thread, i only showed what followed a trend, and didnt bet every game. You can see in my NCAAB picks thread, that i used the strongest plays available, and hit at a great pct for games that followed the trap trend as well as passing my criteria.

Here are some examples of this that I tried to save guys from.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/65379-pitt-trap.html?highlight=trap

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/63607-purdues-trap.html?highlight=trap

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/63665-truth-about-traps.html?highlight=trap

[jjgold]

These games come down to whoever hits their shots, no one team is better so it is a pure guess.

[BigOrangeTitans]

These games come down to whoever hits their shots, no one team is better so it is a pure guess.

Therefore your taking KU and the points? If both teams are equal, why take a "fave''?

[BeatTheJerk]

im picking better talent over a trap situation in this game ........... but yes i see your point u make a valid debate here ......

[awhitejackson]

Balked on the big money...still takin UNC but playing a safety on some NBA tonite..hard to bet against you BOT...some very valid points in this thread

[BigOrangeTitans]

Balked on the big money...still takin UNC but playing a safety on some NBA tonite..hard to bet against you BOT...some very valid points in this thread

I may be wrong, but when i saw the line come out, I loved NC. THen i looked really hard and couldnt see anything that said this should be a pkem. Then with the line going the wrong way, it threw me for a loop.
Biggest reason I like KU? This is the best test UNC had all year and this is the only team that matches up athletically.

Combine that with the points i made here, and i had no choice but to take KU.

[BigOrangeTitans]

lets tip it baybee.

[EaglesPhan36]

Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

[wtt0315]

teams arent balanced. I have kansas winning winning here and losing in finals in my bracket. Now though I am with the public and I think NC wins by 12-17 points.

[frostno98]

If you believed that sh!t, you'd probably took UCLA too huh, those stats are completely useless. It's boils down to who's the better team. UNC is a public team and they traditionally cover for the public.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGVojyitbr4

[WileOut]

All I know is that whoever wins this game is going to have a hard time in the next one. I've never seen a team with as many great finishers as Memphis has.

[imgv94]

Gl Bot...

[BigOrangeTitans]

Thefixisindotcom

This makes gamblers think its a fix.

This make me think numbers are your friend.

[imgv94]

wasn't a trap or fix.. But nonetheless

[awhitejackson]

WoW thank god I laid off the 2 k idea...With memphis winning and wizzards lookin ok...I might win like 20 bucks...Thank god I laid off and only went 440

[Weezy F.]

No doubt KU is making it rain, but UNC doing everything they can to play like a high school team = fix.