One stat that seems interesting, both as a determinant of # 1seed, and also to a lesser extent who gets to the Final Four, is Scoring Margin.
A professor down at Georgia Tech has crunched a bunch of numbers and has come to a similar conclusion, that margin of victory (or if a loss the margin of loss) is a major determinant of a team's success postseason.
(Ever notice how many college professors specializing in or intersted in statistical probabilities are fascinated by making numbers and often predicting winners for college football and basketball? Yahoo has a section with scores of these guys' ratings; I assume a fair number of college profs!)
On the basis of his ratings the G Tech prof thought that while N. Carolina was quite good he had to go with Kansas as the tournament champ. He made his pick pre-tournament.'
It's worth considering; I've long looked at that number, especially since the ncaa compiuter guys are not allowed to factor that into their ratings. (NCAAa doesn't want teams "piling on" to fatten thier rating score.)
In 2006 the Final Four had but one team that was in the top 5 in Scoring Margin: Florida. And of course they won it all.
In that year the top 4 teams (season long and/or thru Conf Tourneys) in Scoring Margin were either a # 1 seed (2), a # 2 seed (1) or a #3 seed (1).
In 2007, last year, the Final Four had again but one team in top 5 in Scoring Margin: the Gators again. And again Fla won.
Runner-up Ohio state was # 10 on that stat, and UCLA and Gtown #15 and #16 respectively,
(UCLA had improved from ranking in the 30s in that key stat the year before. This year they jumped from the #15 ranking to # 5. Due in part to improved Offense,but mostly to a major Defensive improvement - they are the NY Giants of college basketball - which isn't to say they will win out in San Antonio, maybe they got used to losing.)
This year it's not quite as clear cut. Here are the top season-long (incl mini-tourney postseason) in Scoring Margin, in order of rank: #1 Kansas -- #2 Memphis -- # 3 North Carolina --# 4 Davidson (!!!) --- #5 UCLA.
The difference between a # 1 and # 5 are miniscule. Checking the Sagarin ratings for Strenght of Schedule of these four survivors, it shows UCLA with the strongest rank, and Memphis with the weakest.
Like all stats, these have to be measured against many other factors, like a team's current state, individual match-ups, and the like. But they should be factored into both handicapping and bracket stuff.
Sorry to interrupt the Locks and Sex talk - LOL. Just thought a few folks may be interested in these numbers!
A professor down at Georgia Tech has crunched a bunch of numbers and has come to a similar conclusion, that margin of victory (or if a loss the margin of loss) is a major determinant of a team's success postseason.
(Ever notice how many college professors specializing in or intersted in statistical probabilities are fascinated by making numbers and often predicting winners for college football and basketball? Yahoo has a section with scores of these guys' ratings; I assume a fair number of college profs!)
On the basis of his ratings the G Tech prof thought that while N. Carolina was quite good he had to go with Kansas as the tournament champ. He made his pick pre-tournament.'
It's worth considering; I've long looked at that number, especially since the ncaa compiuter guys are not allowed to factor that into their ratings. (NCAAa doesn't want teams "piling on" to fatten thier rating score.)
In 2006 the Final Four had but one team that was in the top 5 in Scoring Margin: Florida. And of course they won it all.
In that year the top 4 teams (season long and/or thru Conf Tourneys) in Scoring Margin were either a # 1 seed (2), a # 2 seed (1) or a #3 seed (1).
In 2007, last year, the Final Four had again but one team in top 5 in Scoring Margin: the Gators again. And again Fla won.
Runner-up Ohio state was # 10 on that stat, and UCLA and Gtown #15 and #16 respectively,
(UCLA had improved from ranking in the 30s in that key stat the year before. This year they jumped from the #15 ranking to # 5. Due in part to improved Offense,but mostly to a major Defensive improvement - they are the NY Giants of college basketball - which isn't to say they will win out in San Antonio, maybe they got used to losing.)
This year it's not quite as clear cut. Here are the top season-long (incl mini-tourney postseason) in Scoring Margin, in order of rank: #1 Kansas -- #2 Memphis -- # 3 North Carolina --# 4 Davidson (!!!) --- #5 UCLA.
The difference between a # 1 and # 5 are miniscule. Checking the Sagarin ratings for Strenght of Schedule of these four survivors, it shows UCLA with the strongest rank, and Memphis with the weakest.
Like all stats, these have to be measured against many other factors, like a team's current state, individual match-ups, and the like. But they should be factored into both handicapping and bracket stuff.
Sorry to interrupt the Locks and Sex talk - LOL. Just thought a few folks may be interested in these numbers!
