2005 Record: 88-74, 2nd in NL East
The Phils have been yakked up the past few years only to fall short of the wildcard each time. I’ve been one of the fools who thought they were going to overtake Atlanta in the NL East a couple of times, and I’m tired of looking foolish. I could easily be wrong about them again, but it’s not going to be because I’m picking them too high in the division.
They have an offense that is capable of taking them to the Land of October Baseball. The lineup has just two holes in it, Mike Lieberthal at catcher and David Bell at third. And both of them have a history of up-n-down seasons, so if they both go up this time it could be a brutal lineup for opposing pitchers to work through.
A lot of attention in preseason mags to the right side of the infield with reigning NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard at first and Chase Utley at second. I’m still not sold on Howard and think some of the 35+ HR predictions are fantasy glimmer right now. Utley has improved steadily with increased playing time and he’s probably a better bet to improve on his .915 OPS than Howard is to improve his .924.
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins enters 2006 with a 36-game hitting streak from the end of last season, and that figures to be where the media focuses their spotlight in the early going.
The outfield has a world of potential with Bobby Abreu in right, Pat Burrell in left and Aaron Rowand in center. Rowand was acquired from the White Sox for Jim Thome in what should be a good deal for both clubs. Solid on defense, Rowand needs to get his OPS back up over .800 to help the offense. Abreu has been one of the best outfielders going since Houston made the horrible decision to protect Derek Bell and let Abreu go in the ’97 expansion draft. A couple of minor injuries had him slumping in the second half of 2005, but I doubt that will carry over into ’06. Burrell is still trying to live up to the hype that made him the #1 pick in baseball’s 1998 draft. A threat to strike out at least once a game (886 Ks in 850 games so far), Burrell was a little more patient in 2005 with a career-high 99 walks and .389 OB%. They have moved the LF wall back a little in Philly’s new park, but I think that might hurt him more on defense having to cover extra ground than it will on offense as some are predicting. Like many, Burrell is a better hitter at home (.293, 20 HR) than on the road (.269, 12 HR). I’m looking for a career year out of him this time.
If any of the position players go down, there really isn’t much behind them. Alex S. Gonzalez and Abraham Nuñez, along with maybe Matt Kata, figure to be the primary infield backups. Shane Victorino, last season’s International League MVP, figures to be the #4 outfielder, with Sal Fasano backing Lieberthal up behind the dish.
Brett Myers, Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle lead the rotation off, with Myers the only one that excites me much. All signs point to Ryan Madson moving from the pen to the rotation this year, and that does pique my interest. He tailed off at the end of 2005 a bit, and had a couple of horrible games early on against the Cards and the Reds that really inflated his ERA. Madson will also need to improve against lefties and keep the ball in the park when they’re batting. But he certainly could be better than Lidle or even Lieber once the dust settles at season’s end.
The #5 starter’s spot will likely come down to a battle between Robinson Tejada and Ryan Franklin this spring. Ricardo Rodriguez, over from Texas in the Vincente Padilla trade, is another possibility. Franklin could be an innings eater, but he won’t fool anyone as evidence by his 95 homers allowed the last three years in Seattle’s pitching-friendly confines. Tejada and Rodriguez are more comfortable in relief than Franklin, so I’m guessing Franklin is the man. If the Phillies had their druthers, Gavin Floyd and his 12-to-6 curve would get the nod. Probably won’t happen coming out of spring, but he could be in the rotation by the All-Star Break. Speaking of the All-Star Break, that’s the time the club figures to get Randy Wolf back after elbow surgery last year. Hard to really count on anything from him right now.
The Phillies have several lefties to choose from in relief. Manager Charlie Manuel will very likely be able to call on southpaws Arthur Rhodes and Aaron Fultz from the pen, and could also have Rheal Cormier, Eude Brito and Matt White at his disposal. But the one lefty they didn’t bring back, Billy Wagner, really hurts the bullpen. Nothing against Tom Gordon who was signed to replace Wagner as the Philly closer; he can put up 35+ saves without a problem. But I still think giving him a 3-year deal at this stage of his career was not a smart move. And Rhodes is the only name I really like among the middle relief and setup arms. Fultz had a career year in 2005 with an ERA more than 2.5 below his career stats entering last season. Madson is now in the rotation and it’s difficult to count on much out of Julio Santana or Aaron Myette. It will take a strong effort from Tejada and/or Rodriguez, assuming neither makes the rotation, to turn this into a solid group of relievers.
With the Mets adding the talent they have the past two seasons and the Braves perennial favorites, a Philadelphia 1st-place finish this time would only be slightly less surprising than their last postseason appearance in 1993. If that does happen, it will be due to several arms I’m currently questioning having career years.
Key Performer(s): Myers, Madson and the setup arms.
Camp Question(s): Deciding on a fifth starter and sorting through the lefties in the pen.
My Play: With 86, 86 and 88 wins the last three seasons, replacing Wagner with Gordon and Thome with Howard full-time doesn’t sound like that big a deal. All the Phils had to do last year was beat the Astros one time in six games, and they would’ve been the NL Wildcard. But they didn’t. My formula worked out to 82 wins this time, and that is precisely the o/u line at Pinnacle. The overall downgrade in the bullpen is what dragged them down.
The Phils have been yakked up the past few years only to fall short of the wildcard each time. I’ve been one of the fools who thought they were going to overtake Atlanta in the NL East a couple of times, and I’m tired of looking foolish. I could easily be wrong about them again, but it’s not going to be because I’m picking them too high in the division.
They have an offense that is capable of taking them to the Land of October Baseball. The lineup has just two holes in it, Mike Lieberthal at catcher and David Bell at third. And both of them have a history of up-n-down seasons, so if they both go up this time it could be a brutal lineup for opposing pitchers to work through.
A lot of attention in preseason mags to the right side of the infield with reigning NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard at first and Chase Utley at second. I’m still not sold on Howard and think some of the 35+ HR predictions are fantasy glimmer right now. Utley has improved steadily with increased playing time and he’s probably a better bet to improve on his .915 OPS than Howard is to improve his .924.
Shortstop Jimmy Rollins enters 2006 with a 36-game hitting streak from the end of last season, and that figures to be where the media focuses their spotlight in the early going.
The outfield has a world of potential with Bobby Abreu in right, Pat Burrell in left and Aaron Rowand in center. Rowand was acquired from the White Sox for Jim Thome in what should be a good deal for both clubs. Solid on defense, Rowand needs to get his OPS back up over .800 to help the offense. Abreu has been one of the best outfielders going since Houston made the horrible decision to protect Derek Bell and let Abreu go in the ’97 expansion draft. A couple of minor injuries had him slumping in the second half of 2005, but I doubt that will carry over into ’06. Burrell is still trying to live up to the hype that made him the #1 pick in baseball’s 1998 draft. A threat to strike out at least once a game (886 Ks in 850 games so far), Burrell was a little more patient in 2005 with a career-high 99 walks and .389 OB%. They have moved the LF wall back a little in Philly’s new park, but I think that might hurt him more on defense having to cover extra ground than it will on offense as some are predicting. Like many, Burrell is a better hitter at home (.293, 20 HR) than on the road (.269, 12 HR). I’m looking for a career year out of him this time.
If any of the position players go down, there really isn’t much behind them. Alex S. Gonzalez and Abraham Nuñez, along with maybe Matt Kata, figure to be the primary infield backups. Shane Victorino, last season’s International League MVP, figures to be the #4 outfielder, with Sal Fasano backing Lieberthal up behind the dish.
Brett Myers, Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle lead the rotation off, with Myers the only one that excites me much. All signs point to Ryan Madson moving from the pen to the rotation this year, and that does pique my interest. He tailed off at the end of 2005 a bit, and had a couple of horrible games early on against the Cards and the Reds that really inflated his ERA. Madson will also need to improve against lefties and keep the ball in the park when they’re batting. But he certainly could be better than Lidle or even Lieber once the dust settles at season’s end.
The #5 starter’s spot will likely come down to a battle between Robinson Tejada and Ryan Franklin this spring. Ricardo Rodriguez, over from Texas in the Vincente Padilla trade, is another possibility. Franklin could be an innings eater, but he won’t fool anyone as evidence by his 95 homers allowed the last three years in Seattle’s pitching-friendly confines. Tejada and Rodriguez are more comfortable in relief than Franklin, so I’m guessing Franklin is the man. If the Phillies had their druthers, Gavin Floyd and his 12-to-6 curve would get the nod. Probably won’t happen coming out of spring, but he could be in the rotation by the All-Star Break. Speaking of the All-Star Break, that’s the time the club figures to get Randy Wolf back after elbow surgery last year. Hard to really count on anything from him right now.
The Phillies have several lefties to choose from in relief. Manager Charlie Manuel will very likely be able to call on southpaws Arthur Rhodes and Aaron Fultz from the pen, and could also have Rheal Cormier, Eude Brito and Matt White at his disposal. But the one lefty they didn’t bring back, Billy Wagner, really hurts the bullpen. Nothing against Tom Gordon who was signed to replace Wagner as the Philly closer; he can put up 35+ saves without a problem. But I still think giving him a 3-year deal at this stage of his career was not a smart move. And Rhodes is the only name I really like among the middle relief and setup arms. Fultz had a career year in 2005 with an ERA more than 2.5 below his career stats entering last season. Madson is now in the rotation and it’s difficult to count on much out of Julio Santana or Aaron Myette. It will take a strong effort from Tejada and/or Rodriguez, assuming neither makes the rotation, to turn this into a solid group of relievers.
With the Mets adding the talent they have the past two seasons and the Braves perennial favorites, a Philadelphia 1st-place finish this time would only be slightly less surprising than their last postseason appearance in 1993. If that does happen, it will be due to several arms I’m currently questioning having career years.
Key Performer(s): Myers, Madson and the setup arms.
Camp Question(s): Deciding on a fifth starter and sorting through the lefties in the pen.
My Play: With 86, 86 and 88 wins the last three seasons, replacing Wagner with Gordon and Thome with Howard full-time doesn’t sound like that big a deal. All the Phils had to do last year was beat the Astros one time in six games, and they would’ve been the NL Wildcard. But they didn’t. My formula worked out to 82 wins this time, and that is precisely the o/u line at Pinnacle. The overall downgrade in the bullpen is what dragged them down.
