Basketball Correlation Side & Total

[HedgeHog]

Anyone have stats on the relationship of same game double digit lines to their totals in either NBA or College (or both)?:

Specifically, when a DD fav covers, how often does the game go over (55% or better?). Conversely, if a game goes Under, how often does the DD Dog cover(again does this approach 55%).

I would imagine the size of the Total directly influences the win % in both cases. Any help would be appreciated. Perhaps there's a site were this info can be obtained.

[LT Profits]

NBA SINCE 1990 (thru 2/7/08)

Using Only Games with a Favorite of -10+ and with a posted Total

IF Favorite Wins ATS: OVER is 844-799, 51.4%
IF Game Goes UNDER: UNDERDOG is 928-799, 53.7%

Records omit Pushes

[LT Profits]

I will try to get to CBB later.

[HedgeHog]

I will try to get to CBB later.

LTP, is there a site that you use to get this info?

Thank you, HH

[ShamsWoof10]

The correlation is hoops is not nearly enough... I have looked at halfs and that's not all that great in terms of correlation but it is better then game lines... Game line are pointless for correleation...

[dogman]

Sham, are you talking NBA or CBB in your statement? If colleges does it show any correlation(+EV) for the first half if the spread is around 10 or more(Half)

[ShamsWoof10]

Sham, are you talking NBA or CBB in your statement? If colleges does it show any correlation(+EV) for the first half if the spread is around 10 or more(Half)

BOTH but I have paid far more attention to the NBA's... I imagine NCAA might be a little better but not nearly enough to make any differance... Baseball and Football are differant but hoops total are FARRR to high... As I mentioned even HALFTIMES in hoops doesn't matter that much but if you are going to look into correlation Halfs are certainly better then gamelines...

[dogman]

Thanks, Sham. The number I have come up with is 15%. If the line to total ratio is 15% or better I would be curious what the record would be(game or first half). 15% is very small compared to football correlations so don't know if there is any +EV in the baskets.

[ShamsWoof10]

Thanks, Sham. The number I have come up with is 15%. If the line to total ratio is 15% or better I would be curious what the record would be(game or first half). 15% is very small compared to football correlations so don't know if there is any +EV in the baskets.

No problem...

Start a thread and track gameline and halftime line correlations... See how it does or track it on your own over a week or so...

[LT Profits]

HH,

No I worked the numbers up from my WinPicks sofware.

[Data]

NBA SINCE 1990 (thru 2/7/08)

Using Only Games with a Favorite of -10+ and with a posted Total

IF Favorite Wins ATS: OVER is 844-799, 51.4%
IF Game Goes UNDER: UNDERDOG is 928-799, 53.7%

Records omit Pushes

NBA since 2002 through 2/3/2008
IF Favorite Wins ATS: OVER is 221-188, 54.0%
IF Game Goes UNDER: UNDERDOG is 188-185, 49.6%

Source - my database, the lines were taken from Covers and then "smoothened" with the lines from TheRX and Donbest.

Records omit Pushes

[HedgeHog]

I was able to use a tool at Marc Lawrence's playbook site. Playing around with the NBA double digit dogs, I think I found a decent angle. Since 2002, taking DD NBA dogs off back-to-back losses (both SU and ATS), I come up with a spread record of 115-79-5 to date (59%). Does this jive with your records Data and LT Profits?

[Data]

HedgeHog, I do not track ATS records in any way and cannot comment on this.

[Data]

I mean, I do have ATS results for any given game but I do not keep/use ATS history.

[Doug]

I wouldn't play into halves blindly with it, but if I liked the larger dog and under, I 'd probably bet them individually and a smaller bet parlayed, even more likely at +280, same with Fav and over.

If I liked fav and under, I'd go two seperate bets, and usually same with dog and over, but sometimes I'll parlay H2 dog and over, if my opinion is very strong.

In other words, I tend to go with the logic of the correlation.

NBA is a bit different than NFL. The scoring is more stable. If the H2 total is 98, you can be pretty sure that at least 80 get scored, 50-60 just isn't going to happen, so the correlation trend is the way I'd lean.

I'd sure not want to be on (H2) Fav-10 and under 95 in an NBA game.

[LT Profits]

I was able to use a tool at Marc Lawrence's playbook site. Playing around with the NBA double digit dogs, I think I found a decent angle. Since 2002, taking DD NBA dogs off back-to-back losses (both SU and ATS), I come up with a spread record of 115-79-5 to date (59%). Does this jive with your records Data and LT Profits?

I get more plays than that, although the percentage is still good:


All Underdogs +10+, After Losing SU & Losing ATS 2+ Games
From Tue. Oct 29, 2002 To Thurs. Feb 7, 2008

124-91-5, 57.7%

[Doug]

sounds like nothing more than data mining to me.

[HedgeHog]

sounds like nothing more than data mining to me.

You may be right. However, it does have a contrarian logic to it.

[Munson15]

I like it Hog. Seems to me that you would be playing a team out of favor and undervalued in this situation.

[RickySteve]

It's not an accident every book will encourage you to bet side/total parlays in basketball.

[dogman]

Actually 5Dimes won't let you parlay the big spreads with the total but looks like to me there isn't enough correlation for these to be profitable, even for the first half.

[HedgeHog]

I made a parlay at Bookmaker today on Loy-Mary +31 with Under 144.5. I think there's enough correlation to make this a +Ev bet. I do agree that these situations, unlike Football, are extremely rare in Hoops.

[dogman]

Tried this past week to play any correlation with a 15% or greater ratio with not much success, mostly first half plays. I agree with Ricky, if books let you play them it's probably not +EV. If they don't then it's a winner. Good luck tonight. Look at the first half also as the correlation shoud be stronger.

[dogman]

Just checked, the correlation is at 25%(17-68), for the first half. The GREEK is letting you play this so again not sure if +EV.

[ShamsWoof10]

I still believe Halftime lines are the best and those are still not good enough... I see +6 with a total of 91 a lot or even +10 for a second half... Why would you waste your time on first halfs..?

[HedgeHog]

Just checked, the correlation is at 25%(17-68), for the first half. The GREEK is letting you play this so again not sure if +EV.

Just got the same line/total at Betonline. It's worth a small parlay bet. Thanks for the heads-up.

[dogman]

Sham the line for the first half is -17 and the total is 68 which is a 25% line to total ratio. That's pretty high.Are you saying check the second half lines for higher correlations?

[ShamsWoof10]

Sham the line for the first half is -17 and the total is 68 which is a 25% line to total ratio. That's pretty high.Are you saying check the second half lines for higher correlations?

Yes that is exactly what I am saying...

That must be college and yeah I can see where in college you would get bigger numbers but you'll get those for Halftime too...

[dogman]

Gotcha

[RickySteve]

Actually 5Dimes won't let you parlay the big spreads with the total but looks like to me there isn't enough correlation for these to be profitable, even for the first half.

5Dimes has been torched by advantage parlay play for so long they're afraid of their own shadow. 5Dimes couldn't book itself out of a brown paper bag and relies on account micromanagement, strict collaring and managerial intimidation & harassment to protect its sliver of a hold.

Anyone betting same-game side & total basketball parlays will go broke. You've been warned.

[ShamsWoof10]

Anyone betting same-game side & total basketball parlays will go broke. You've been warned.

RS is a halftime bettor too...

[HedgeHog]

5Dimes has been torched by advantage parlay play for so long they're afraid of their own shadow. 5Dimes couldn't book itself out of a brown paper bag and relies on account micromanagement, strict collaring and managerial intimidation & harassment to protect its sliver of a hold.

Anyone betting same-game side & total basketball parlays will go broke. You've been warned.

Win or lose, I think I'll survive this small bet.

[jjgold]

with certain combos in hockey involving 1/2 lines and totals it is beatable but books banned it.

[Doug]

1.5 lines, not .5 lines JJ. I'm sure there are still a few places to bet it, but its not a good bet without tie games being possible.

[jjgold]

+1/2 + the money and under + the money is profitable parlay combo.