Point spread is gambling's great equalizer
Thursday, February 02, 2006
By Gary Rotstein, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
The Steelers lost two more games than the Seattle Seahawks.
The Steelers entered the playoffs as the lowest seed in their conference, while the Seahawks were No. 1 in theirs.
Steelers Coach Bill Cowher has never won a Super Bowl, but Seahawks Coach Mike Holmgren has.
And yet oddsmakers favor the Steelers by at least 4 points to win the Super Bowl, so what gives?
The simple answer is the experts in Las Vegas, and everyone in the industry who follows them, seek to create a "point spread" in which the public splits its money evenly between the two sides. That way, a casino sports book will have a guaranteed profit from the 10 percent difference between what bettors risk and what they receive if successful.
Most Las Vegas or online operations started with the Steelers as a 3-point to 4-point favorite over the Seahawks, and have since moved that as high as 4 1/2 because most early bets were on the Steelers.
If someone bets on the Steelers as a 4-point favorite, the team must win by at least 5 for the bettor to win. If the Steelers win by 4, it's a "push," or tie, in which the player gets back his original wager. If the Steelers win by less than 4, or if the Seahawks win, the money is lost.
Individuals involved in setting the current line, and creating hundreds of other betting options on the Super Bowl, say they factored in the Steelers playing in a tougher conference, their sweep of three strong teams on the road in the playoffs, and the team's popularity with the betting public. Because the Super Bowl draws in many people who don't normally gamble, a lot more money than usual is wagered sentimentally, noted Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton race and sports book executive director.
"We're trying to figure out what the educated money is going to do. The general public normally bets the favorite, and the Steelers are a much more popular team, but the big question at this point is what the wise-guy money is going to do," he said. That answer won't come until the weekend, when about 80 percent of the wagering volume takes place.
Every Super Bowl also inspires a burst of creativity among casinos and online betting operations to offer hundreds of "proposition" bets, everything from who wins the coin toss to which player scores the first touchdown to whether Willie Parker will gain 4 yards or more on his first run.
Unusual "crossover props" also tie in other sports to Super Bowl wagers. For instance, the Hilton lets bettors choose whether Jerome Bettis will gain more rushing yards Sunday than NBA star Kobe Bryant will score in points the night before. Mr. Kornegay said Bryant is a slight favorite in that matchup.
As for the Super Bowl, Mr. Kornegay said if he were betting, he would lean toward the Steelers, even giving away 4 points to the Seahawks.
"The two best teams in the league were the Colts and Broncos, and for the Steelers to go on the road and dominate physically against those two teams, it was very impressive," said Mr. Kornegay, who himself is a disappointed Broncos fan.
Thursday, February 02, 2006
By Gary Rotstein, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
The Steelers lost two more games than the Seattle Seahawks.
The Steelers entered the playoffs as the lowest seed in their conference, while the Seahawks were No. 1 in theirs.
Steelers Coach Bill Cowher has never won a Super Bowl, but Seahawks Coach Mike Holmgren has.
And yet oddsmakers favor the Steelers by at least 4 points to win the Super Bowl, so what gives?
The simple answer is the experts in Las Vegas, and everyone in the industry who follows them, seek to create a "point spread" in which the public splits its money evenly between the two sides. That way, a casino sports book will have a guaranteed profit from the 10 percent difference between what bettors risk and what they receive if successful.
Most Las Vegas or online operations started with the Steelers as a 3-point to 4-point favorite over the Seahawks, and have since moved that as high as 4 1/2 because most early bets were on the Steelers.
If someone bets on the Steelers as a 4-point favorite, the team must win by at least 5 for the bettor to win. If the Steelers win by 4, it's a "push," or tie, in which the player gets back his original wager. If the Steelers win by less than 4, or if the Seahawks win, the money is lost.
Individuals involved in setting the current line, and creating hundreds of other betting options on the Super Bowl, say they factored in the Steelers playing in a tougher conference, their sweep of three strong teams on the road in the playoffs, and the team's popularity with the betting public. Because the Super Bowl draws in many people who don't normally gamble, a lot more money than usual is wagered sentimentally, noted Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton race and sports book executive director.
"We're trying to figure out what the educated money is going to do. The general public normally bets the favorite, and the Steelers are a much more popular team, but the big question at this point is what the wise-guy money is going to do," he said. That answer won't come until the weekend, when about 80 percent of the wagering volume takes place.
Every Super Bowl also inspires a burst of creativity among casinos and online betting operations to offer hundreds of "proposition" bets, everything from who wins the coin toss to which player scores the first touchdown to whether Willie Parker will gain 4 yards or more on his first run.
Unusual "crossover props" also tie in other sports to Super Bowl wagers. For instance, the Hilton lets bettors choose whether Jerome Bettis will gain more rushing yards Sunday than NBA star Kobe Bryant will score in points the night before. Mr. Kornegay said Bryant is a slight favorite in that matchup.
As for the Super Bowl, Mr. Kornegay said if he were betting, he would lean toward the Steelers, even giving away 4 points to the Seahawks.
"The two best teams in the league were the Colts and Broncos, and for the Steelers to go on the road and dominate physically against those two teams, it was very impressive," said Mr. Kornegay, who himself is a disappointed Broncos fan.