What would you do with access to no-juice lines?

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  • asdfasdf1
    SBR Rookie
    • 07-28-10
    • 3

    #1
    What would you do with access to no-juice lines?
    If you had access to no-juice pinnacle lines, would there be strategies to make money besides making your regular plays at better prices?

    For example could you watch price movements of MLB lines from open... say in the first 8 hours it goes like this:

    Open -110
    1am -115
    2am -120
    3am -123
    4am -125
    5am -126
    6am -126
    7am -126

    This looks like sharp money pounding an opening line to the current "true line" and then stopping because -126 no longer provides value in their mind. However, the vigfree line may be -122 and still worth betting, correct? Or do line movements & book line adjustments not really work like this?
  • Doug
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-10-05
    • 6324

    #2
    It's called Matchbook
    Comment
    • sharpcat
      Restricted User
      • 12-19-09
      • 4516

      #3
      same thing as usual focus on beating the no-vig closing number.
      Comment
      • PRC
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-22-09
        • 576

        #4
        Bet anything half-point off Pinnacle.
        Comment
        • That Foreign Guy
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-18-10
          • 432

          #5
          I would arb until I had a million dollars (assuming other books still do what they do).

          Once I had a million dollars then I would do two chicks at the same time.
          Comment
          • Fishhead
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 08-11-05
            • 40179

            #6
            Originally posted by doug
            it's called matchbook


            we have a winner!!!
            Comment
            • Fishhead
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 08-11-05
              • 40179

              #7
              Anyone playing offshore and doesn't use MATCHBOOK is .......well, just plain silly.
              Comment
              • mathdotcom
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 03-24-08
                • 11689

                #8
                FH do you know your lifetime figure at matchbook?
                Comment
                • Fishhead
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 08-11-05
                  • 40179

                  #9
                  Originally posted by mathdotcom
                  FH do you know your lifetime figure at matchbook?


                  EVERY shop
                  Comment
                  • sharpcat
                    Restricted User
                    • 12-19-09
                    • 4516

                    #10
                    Matchbook is a must have out but if you think that a -150/+149 line means that you are betting the no-vig number you need to do some research on commission and understand that you pay win or lose.
                    Comment
                    • Fishhead
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 08-11-05
                      • 40179

                      #11
                      Originally posted by sharpcat
                      Matchbook is a must have out but if you think that a -150/+149 line means that you are betting the no-vig number you need to do some research on commission and understand that you pay win or lose.
                      I think most here understand that..........
                      Comment
                      • sharpcat
                        Restricted User
                        • 12-19-09
                        • 4516

                        #12
                        Originally posted by asdfasdf1
                        If you had access to no-juice pinnacle lines, would there be strategies to make money besides making your regular plays at better prices?

                        For example could you watch price movements of MLB lines from open... say in the first 8 hours it goes like this:

                        Open -110
                        1am -115
                        2am -120
                        3am -123
                        4am -125
                        5am -126
                        6am -126
                        7am -126

                        This looks like sharp money pounding an opening line to the current "true line" and then stopping because -126 no longer provides value in their mind. However, the vigfree line may be -122 and still worth betting, correct? Or do line movements & book line adjustments not really work like this?
                        Originally posted by Doug
                        It's called Matchbook
                        Originally posted by Fishhead



                        we have a winner!!!
                        Kinda hard for people to understand this when you constantly have misleading information being thrown out

                        add/subtract roughly .02 cents to whatever side of the line you are betting for commission and you are nowhere close to Pinnacles no-juice price.

                        As I said matchbook is a must have out but those who choose to promote matchbook should not have to post misleading info, matchbook lines are competitive enough as is even with commission included they meet or beat any US books lines.
                        Comment
                        • Doug
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-10-05
                          • 6324

                          #13
                          Originally posted by sharpcat
                          Matchbook is a must have out but if you think that a -150/+149 line means that you are betting the no-vig number you need to do some research on commission and understand that you pay win or lose.
                          It is virtually no vig if you make the offer, though.
                          Comment
                          • yanksfan
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 07-07-10
                            • 328

                            #14
                            you need to make offers
                            Comment
                            • sharpcat
                              Restricted User
                              • 12-19-09
                              • 4516

                              #15
                              Putting up offers on matchbook has nothing to do with what the OP was asking, he asked "if you had access to no-juice lines?" and I would not consider attempting to make offers on matchbook as having open access to no-vig lines since you really have no control over which games you are able to put an offer on and you have no control on if your offer will get matched or for how much it will get matched.

                              If this is the answer to the OP than I would go one step further and recommend that the OP just start booking his own bets and he could than beat the no-vig line by .10 cents on every bet he takes.
                              Comment
                              • JustinBieber
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 05-16-10
                                • 324

                                #16
                                Originally posted by sharpcat
                                Kinda hard for people to understand this when you constantly have misleading information being thrown out

                                add/subtract roughly .02 cents to whatever side of the line you are betting for commission and you are nowhere close to Pinnacles no-juice price.

                                As I said matchbook is a must have out but those who choose to promote matchbook should not have to post misleading info, matchbook lines are competitive enough as is even with commission included they meet or beat any US books lines.
                                You agree pinnacles lines are more efficient than matchbooks?
                                Comment
                                • Doug
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-10-05
                                  • 6324

                                  #17
                                  Making offers at Matchbook can give a line that is much better than no vig, 10 cents or more better at times. You'd have to make offers on stuff like arena football, MLB team totals and other underserved markets. No guarantee of getting anything at all matched, but good when you do.

                                  Often at MB something would be -151/ +149. If you come in at 150 then you have no vig, this is very realistic and usually matches quickly for major sports.

                                  Nothing can come close to MB for mature lines.
                                  Comment
                                  • sharpcat
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 12-19-09
                                    • 4516

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by JustinBieber
                                    You agree pinnacles lines are more efficient than matchbooks?
                                    In strong markets I may lean more toward matchbooks "No-commision line" as being a better indicator of the true no-vig price simply because the no-vig price on a Pinnacle -150/+141 line is not guaranteed to reflect a no-vig price of +/-144.6 even with a .09 cent line pinnacle does not have to be 100% dead accurate with their line movement.

                                    On the other hand if the matchbook line is not drawing a lot of action and is not nailed down to a .01 cent line I may lean towards Pinnacles line.
                                    Comment
                                    • sharpcat
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 12-19-09
                                      • 4516

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Doug
                                      Making offers at Matchbook can give a line that is much better than no vig, 10 cents or more better at times. You'd have to make offers on stuff like arena football, MLB team totals and other underserved markets. No guarantee of getting anything at all matched, but good when you do.

                                      Often at MB something would be -151/ +149. If you come in at 150 then you have no vig, this is very realistic and usually matches quickly for major sports.

                                      Nothing can come close to MB for mature lines.
                                      I agree 100% my only point is to make sure that posters understand that commission makes what appears to be a .01 cent line a .05 cent line unless of course you make the offers but many times you do not have the option to make an offer and when you do there is no guarantee if your offer will be met or for how much it will be matched.

                                      I was under the impression that the OP was asking a hypothetical question that assuming you were able to have a wide selection of any wager you wanted across the board with no-juice what would you do?????
                                      Comment
                                      • Fishhead
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 08-11-05
                                        • 40179

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by JustinBieber
                                        You agree pinnacles lines are more efficient than matchbooks?

                                        No, they are not.
                                        Comment
                                        • JustinBieber
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 05-16-10
                                          • 324

                                          #21
                                          I understand your logic here and im not disagreeing with you but doesn't pinnacles line have to have some degree of efficiency if they're working with a 9cent line where as matchbook being an exchange only has to have a relative degree of efficiency? By this i mean can't a lot of public money move a matchbook line where as pinnacle would not move a line due to a large bet from somebody with no clue?
                                          Comment
                                          • biggie12
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 12-30-05
                                            • 13794

                                            #22
                                            Fishhead always in so quick to efend matchbook
                                            Comment
                                            • George7904
                                              SBR Hustler
                                              • 07-28-10
                                              • 77

                                              #23
                                              I do not have an account at Matchbook; but it seems to me if you make an offer; someone will take it as soon as the line moves against you. You will always be taken when the line moves against you at Pinnacle if you do not watch the screen all day. Am I correct here?
                                              Comment
                                              • poker_dummy101
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-03-08
                                                • 6395

                                                #24
                                                good info from sharpcat in this thread.. the rest of you not so much.. but that is to be expected when fishhead enters a thread
                                                Comment
                                                • djiddish98
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 11-13-09
                                                  • 345

                                                  #25
                                                  Anyone see the liquidity on matchbook when pinnacle was down yesterday morning? Lower than normal (granted, it was the morning)?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • That Foreign Guy
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 07-18-10
                                                    • 432

                                                    #26
                                                    I know at least two major euro bookies definitely have hedging accounts on Betfair and have heard that most do from a reasonably reliable source. I wonder if pinnacle has a matchbook account, or if it's just people like me who can't handicap without knowing what the Pinny line is not making offers.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • djiddish98
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 11-13-09
                                                      • 345

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by That Foreign Guy
                                                      I know at least two major euro bookies definitely have hedging accounts on Betfair and have heard that most do from a reasonably reliable source. I wonder if pinnacle has a matchbook account, or if it's just people like me who can't handicap without knowing what the Pinny line is not making offers.
                                                      I would guess the latter. I would also hazard a guess that Matchbook's liquidity is a drop in the bucket for pinny.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Arilou
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 07-16-06
                                                        • 475

                                                        #28
                                                        I like to use a rule of thumb that I won't wager unless the edge I believe I have post-vig is greater than the effective vig I have to pay. No vig opens up your game big time. It lowers your threshold for wagering, allowing you to exploit very small advantages - even a single move from a single book that's worth anything can beat a no-vig line somewhere else all things being equal. You could also go after traditionally sharp things where your only worry was whether your edge was big enough, but I won't do details since there are, as Justin7 puts it, no systems in the Think Tank. The most interesting new thing you can do aside from pure arbitrage (which you'll get to do left and right if that is allowed under this scenario) is arbitrage over time; I used to do this all the time at Matchbook where I'd hammer them after a tiny movement, forcing the Market Maker to overmove off the move to cover himself, and then sell it back later on another tiny movement since he'd be leaning the other way, which you could only do because you didn't used to pay commission as long as you liquidated your position before the game. Nowadays you'd pay both ways, so you can't win doing it.

                                                        Do note however that if you know all your conversions, have access to a variety of books including Matchbook and Pinnacle and are willing to put in the time and do the click-work (leg-work just seems like the wrong term for it) you can effectively operate in a world not that far from no-vig.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • acarmelo1
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 09-29-09
                                                          • 6321

                                                          #29
                                                          if you take the winning play, you dont need to worry about that
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Waz
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 12-25-08
                                                            • 262

                                                            #30
                                                            Matchbook is great.....I wish it had a little more liquidity for overnights, but it should be the #1 out on everybody's list. MB has the best line among all of the books that I use over 80% of the time.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Jontheman
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 09-09-08
                                                              • 139

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by That Foreign Guy
                                                              I would arb until I had a million dollars (assuming other books still do what they do).

                                                              Once I had a million dollars then I would do two chicks at the same time.
                                                              This. If you could get at a Pinny no-vig line and nobody else had access to it it is obscene the money you could make doing this.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • That Foreign Guy
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 07-18-10
                                                                • 432

                                                                #32
                                                                Yeah if everyone had a no vig line then they would be no arbs but on the upside you'd just have to be a 50.1% handicapper (and have money management) to win.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • pat venditto
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 05-07-07
                                                                  • 14347

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Fishhead got owned in this thread by sharpcat. Love how he lies to people and when he gets caught he never comments on it.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • dogman
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-28-05
                                                                    • 514

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Mind this is short term. I was betting Pinny's no vig numbers at a slow moving book and had very little success this year and some of last year.

                                                                    I basically try to find an edge and then do my best to get the best number on it. If you play a favorite or dog you must beat the closer. If you can win money with the closing numbers just think how much more you can make if you get better numbers before game time.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • u21c3f6
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 01-17-09
                                                                      • 790

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by dogman
                                                                      Mind this is short term. I was betting Pinny's no vig numbers at a slow moving book and had very little success this year and some of last year.

                                                                      I basically try to find an edge and then do my best to get the best number on it. If you play a favorite or dog you must beat the closer. If you can win money with the closing numbers just think how much more you can make if you get better numbers before game time.
                                                                      OK, I'll try one more time.

                                                                      Just because you beat the no-vig line on a subset of wagers does not mean that your overall performance will be +EV (as you have apparently experienced).

                                                                      I'll go one further. Just because the line moves against you does not mean that you have made a bad bet! It just means that you didn't get the best price. Your wager based on your subset of wagers may in fact still be +EV, just not as profitable as it could have been.

                                                                      If you are profitable by beating the closing lines, congratulations and I mean that sincerely. However, it is not the only way to approach this game. This closing line thing almost seems cult-like which unfortunately I feel may prevent some from finding an alternative that may actually be profitable (assuming that you have not been able to make beating the closers work for you).

                                                                      Joe.
                                                                      Comment
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