What would you do with access to no-juice lines?

[dogman]

You're right. It's not so much beating the closer it's just trying to get the best number you can

[That Foreign Guy]

Beating the closing lines regularly makes it harder to be a losing player and it's also easy to measure so I understand why people like it.

[djiddish98]

OK, I'll try one more time.

Just because you beat the no-vig line on a subset of wagers does not mean that your overall performance will be +EV (as you have apparently experienced).

I'll go one further. Just because the line moves against you does not mean that you have made a bad bet! It just means that you didn't get the best price. Your wager based on your subset of wagers may in fact still be +EV, just not as profitable as it could have been.

If you are profitable by beating the closing lines, congratulations and I mean that sincerely. However, it is not the only way to approach this game. This closing line thing almost seems cult-like which unfortunately I feel may prevent some from finding an alternative that may actually be profitable (assuming that you have not been able to make beating the closers work for you).

Joe.

I believe there is a divide between two identifiable camps of sports bettors in the think tank - Those that chase steam and those that create models.

They view the "beating the no-vig closer" from different perspectives.

If you have a model that has a long term and significant edge against a specific subset of wagers, then you can take the no-vig line a bit lighter, although you might want to continue to confirm that your model is profitable, as sports always seem to evolve.

Chasing steam does not necessarily liken itself to a subset of wagers (those that always seem to bet the Pirates or Orioles will probably disagree as perhaps steam is not entirely random). Steam chasers have to rely on the market itself being/becoming efficient, and the closing line being the most (or close to it) accurate representation of the occurrence of the event, because there isn't another baseline to judge against. Of course, beating the closing line does not mean automatic profit, as there are some pretty large variances between actual growth and expected growth over the short, medium and even long term.

I'm not picking a side here, just saying that there are different perspectives at play on the subject.

Apologies for garbling some of the language.

[wrongturn]

I always wonder if books can initiate fake steams...