Will it hold?? + 315 on the Dow
It feels like we are gonna get back to the wild swings like we had in summer.
It feels like we are gonna get back to the wild swings like we had in summer.
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Dead cat bounce? Real Estate market sucks, Oil near highs, and rate cuts can't last forever.Comment -
DOW closed up nearly 332 points becuase the fed hinted at another rate cut.Comment -
Will tumble in January
It always goes up nowComment -
Personally I think the housing market is about 90% priced-in. Any weakness on housing and sub prime is probably a good buying op. Not that Im buying. The oil prices are really going to take their toll and hurt the consumer with high heating bills. I could see the consumer slowing down into 08 if oil remains over $90. That will likely cool stocks for a while.Comment -
The market volatility in the financial markets is highly likely to continue through the fourth quarter of 2007. In particular, the financial sector continues to write-down billions of dollars of collateralized debt obligations that will significantly deterioriate earnings and more importantly, create short term liquidity concerns that is largely attributed to additional cash requirements to fund reserve accounts for write-downs and charge-offs.
A quarter to half a point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate in December will offer short term relief due to the lower costs of borrowing. However, the impact of the write downs of the collarteralized debt obligations is unlikely to diminish until the second half of 2008. Therefore, the volatility in the financial markets is highly likely to remain for the duration of 2007.
A hedge on existing investments would be the best play under these volatile market conditions such as placing a straddle on options to not only protect the value of existing investments, but also, profit from the market swings that have been so common in the financial markets since late June / early July of 2007.Comment -
The market swings, especially the upward spikes, smell like more of that famous "irrational exuberance."
Certainly, US based corporations are not posting big earnings in general that justify a rising market. Wall Street seems fixated, not on production and demand, but on the "fixes" that seem to have worked magic for so many decades.
The Fed is a fallible institution. And one also subject to political swings. It seems now that they will bow to pressure to lower the prime rate. Again.
What is that likely to mean? More - and more rapid - inflation, an event already crawling into the economy like a venemous snake, and likely to get worse. And its crawl will be accelerated by the coming massive bailout of the fools who bought homes with ARMs that they didn't understand.
The market now is more unstable and less subject to accurate analysis than the NFL or NCAA. And it is irrational - anyone who thinks that heavy buying or selling is being done by all-wise strategists who are walking encyclopedias of investemnt simply doesn't know the history of the market, of boom and bust.
If I were to invest in it right now, I'd do classic contrarianism. Forget the latest news on rates, bankrupcies, PE, all that stuff. Buy when it takes a big dip, sell when it makes a sharp rise. And concentrate on the most volative issues, those most likely to bounce the highest, up and down.
Or cash it all in and lay the money on Indy this Sunday, minus 6.5Comment -
Market was oversold. Positive momentum forces short sellers out of their positions. So in part this is a correction on the previous correction. And floor traders are now expecting another Fed rate cut on December 11th. Translation: 'bad news will be good news'. In my opinion those cuts are meaningless, because they lower the value of the dollar and increase the oil price, but the Fed is forced in a corner by market expectation and in the short term a cut should have a positive effect (although only 1 day last time). Regardlessly, I'm out the night before Christmas.Comment -
I've sold most of my stocks, I held a few US stocks but the rise in the cnd$ made those investments bad. I'm holding large stockpile of cash waiting for the market to go further down. I think these swings are traders playing the market.
I think we are headed for a big correction so I'd be treading carefully in these waters. Look for a reason to get out (a +315 is reason enough to me). I may to try and quickly get in and out depending on how I feel tomorrow. RIght now all I own is tech stocks.Comment -
It's all about the swings.
Just like the playground.
If you have the stomach for it.
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I'm in it for the long haul. Daily +/- means nothing.Comment
