How can I convert spread (NFL) to equivalent moneyline?

[curious]

Hello,
I want to determine if a game should be bet on the spread or the moneyline. I read somewhere that most books charge extra juice on the moneyline, if you converted the moneyline odds to the equivalent spread the spread they offer is a better deal, but sometimes a book will make the moneyline a better deal.

I'm sure there is a way to calculate what the moneyline should be given a specific spread..and to calculate what the spread should be given a specific moneyline. Can someone point me in the right direction?

Curious

[Ganchrow]

I want to determine if a game should be bet on the spread or the moneyline. I read somewhere that most books charge extra juice on the moneyline, if you converted the moneyline odds to the equivalent spread the spread they offer is a better deal, but sometimes a book will make the moneyline a better deal.

I'm sure there is a way to calculate what the moneyline should be given a specific spread..and to calculate what the spread should be given a specific moneyline. Can someone point me in the right direction?

Stanford Wong devoted chapter 14 of Sharp Sports Betting to this topic.

As a first order approximation you can use my half-point calculator as discussed in this thread.

I discuss some of the issues at play when deciding between a money line and a spread assuming efficient conversion by the market in this post.

most books charge extra juice on the moneyline

This is almost always untrue in the case of spread markets offered at near even odds (which is generally the case with major US sports other than NHL and MLB) paired with higher magnitude money line markets. While books such as Pinnacle may quote slightly wider markets in nominal terms, the percent theoretical hold will almost always be less on the money line. Exceptions will exists in the cases of very small spreads (where the money line odds are also close to even) and at money line break points.

[curious]

Would historic data for the entire NFL be used to know what the conversion factor should be between a given spread and a given moneyline for a given team? Or, would historic data for that team be used?

[Ganchrow]

Would historic data for the entire NFL be used to know what the conversion factor should be between a given spread and a given moneyline for a given team? Or, would historic data for that team be used?

You'd look at data for the entire NFL.

Even if you could show that individual team results were more predictive than league-wide results, because of the relative dearth of historical data you'd likely be overspecifying your model breaking it out by team.

[bigboydan]

Stanford Wong devoted chapter 14 of Sharp Sports Betting to this topic.

I thought it was chapter 15 Ganchrow. Either way it's a moot point though. The bottom line is it's definitely worth a read for those who haven't read it yet.

[Ganchrow]

I thought it was chapter 15 Ganchrow. Either way it's a moot point though. The bottom line is it's definitely worth a read for those who haven't read it yet.

Chapter 15 is "NFL Totals". 14 is "NFL Money Line vs. Spread".

Best book on sports betting until mine is published. :-)

[bigboydan]

Best book on sports betting until mine is published. :-)

Will that be available in paperback Ganchrow.

[jon13009]

Curious,

Try this site:

http://www.smartcapper.com/tool_nfl_point_spread_to_money_line_converter.html

lots of good handicapping tools there for free and relatively simple to use.

I also use this site to track my wagers. (it seems like you want to do this at SBR, and this would be a good guideline to follow if you get one in place.)

However, you have to register (create an account - FREE ) to track your wagers there.

Once again , I am not touting this site or am affiliated with this site, and I am only encouraging you to use the free tools and read the free information available there.

GL.

[Arilou]

One easy way to get a good chart is simply to observe the prices for games on a few NFL Sundays at low-juice books. Matchbook is very good for this, as is Pinnacle. The same conversions show up game after game. There are charts available in various places, but I don't consider any of the public ones smarter than the market on this topic.