[jjgold]

The screen watcher will wear down the handicapper every time and cannot name one player math 101

[JayLA]

what's a screen watcher? the guy looking at lines and thinking he sees patterns?

[d2bets]

what's a screen watcher? the guy looking at lines and thinking he sees patterns?

Watching line movement and off numbers. Steam.

[JayLA]

Watching line movement and off numbers. Steam.

I also do that. When I have time I open up sportbook lines all over the world and try to figure out why sportbooks hang certain lines, given all the public statistics, injury info, and public perception, and try to guess why the money is going a certain way

[jjgold]

screen watcher= Betting Steam, Betting best Number, Jumping Injuries

[JayLA]

There's nothing for certain. You can handicap the shit out of a matchup, or "screen watch" until your eyes bleed and you're shitting out numbers and you can still lose your ass.

i dunno how you guys do it and stay sane

[iwantcougars]

the only thing that matters is winning

[d2bets]

There's nothing for certain. You can handicap the shit out of a matchup, or "screen watch" until your eyes bleed and you're shitting out numbers and you can still lose your ass.

i dunno how you guys do it and stay sane

You don't need certainty. You need ~ 55% certainty at -110 odds, or the equivalent.

[d2bets]

the only thing that matters is winning

Yeah, but how do you ensure winning in the future? It's certainly not by guessing or feelings.

[Fishhead]

Highly successful screen watching involves much more than most think, and a reason some have widely different degrees of success doing it.

[KVB]

Highly successful screen watching involves much more than most think, and a reason some have widely different degrees of success doing it.

What Gold doesn’t realize is the usefulness of handicapping when watching the screens.

It’s not enough to watch the screens, you must have some sort of rating some sort of handicap some sort of number that you think is a good no vig line.

Yes, I explain in a video how to determine the no vig line based on the market movement, the leading and lagging trades, but if you’re already armed with your own no vig line to compare to then you are eons ahead.

Even the most basic of “screen watchers“ following my video need to do some sort of handicapping or rating, without it they can get manipulated out of many good trades.

[JIBBBY]

Reading stats, trends and injury reports more important then watching the actual games. Capping is reading.

[KVB]

Watching the screens won't get you anywhere if you don't "Know Your Markets"

Might be getting time to make some new videos.

... ...

[d2bets]

Reading stats, trends and injury reports more important then watching the actual games. Capping is reading.

Meh.

"Trends" are generally garbage.

"Injury reports" tell you who might be probable, questionable, etc., but then it's the later injury alerts/updates that really matter.

"Stats"? What stats are you reading that you think aren't already built into the number?

[KVB]

Meh.

"Trends" are generally garbage.

"Injury reports" tell you who might be probable, questionable, etc., but then it's the later injury alerts/updates that really matter.

"Stats"? What stats are you reading that you think aren't already built into the number?

Exactly. Unless you're actually accounting for it's impact on the line it just becomes extra, subjectively used info. Trends may go one way, but then push the line that way as well, until there is value on the other side.

There was a thread about the Celtics and that we were trying to catch them when they were "over valued" with the point being you have to look at the line offered, not just go with or against a trend. We got lucky in there with the winning bet being the game winner on an overvalued line against Golden State. Even then, there was debate about the value of the line among us (Lakeshow and me).

Some people try to pick the winner of the game, some try to pick the winning bet. The two are not always the same.

[d2bets]

Exactly. Unless you're actually accounting for it's impact on the line it just becomes extra, subjectively used info. Trends may go one way, but then push the line that way as well, until there is value on the other side.

There was a thread about the Celtics and that we were trying to catch them when they were "over valued" with the point being you have to look at the line offered, not just go with or against a trend. We got lucky in there with the winning bet being the game winner on an overvalued line against Golden State. Even then, there was debate about the value of the line among us (Lakeshow and me).

Some people try to pick the winner of the game, some try to pick the winning bet. The two are not always the same.

Yes, and honestly too much "reading" is probably bad and leads to paralysis or misinfo. Filling your head with stuff that doesn't matter isn't helpful. Might just might you question what you otherwise know you should do. Sometimes happen to me, where I let a past result bias creep in where it shouldn't be. Have a (good) process, trust the process, and act on the process. Realize that you cannot, should not, and will not win every wager. You need the losers to get the winners. Have a realistic ROI expectation and don't be disappointed that you only won "a little". A little can become a lot.

[SlickFazzer]

Bet one game a day and not every day. Money management and discipline. -- Steve Stevens

[JIBBBY]

Meh.

"Trends" are generally garbage.

"Injury reports" tell you who might be probable, questionable, etc., but then it's the later injury alerts/updates that really matter.

"Stats"? What stats are you reading that you think aren't already built into the number?

Matchup history, last 5 games, who's hot and not. ATS trends, game write ups, injury report, lastly best line I can find on all my books.

I use links like -

Teamrankings to find out ATS

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/ats_trends/

Rotowire for game write up and injury reports

https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/game-previews.php

Yahoo sports for last five games on each team (past game match up recaps) when you scroll down.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/golden-...rs-2023012005/


That is what I do when capping games that I want to bet on. It usually works out if I put the work in.

[KVB]

Bet one game a day and not every day. Money management and discipline. -- Steve Stevens

Terrible, arbitrary advice.

I would argue that "betting one game a day and not every day" sounds like a rule that is direct opposite of money management and discipline.

This may be hard for some to swallow, it might not even make "sense" to some, but at our level of betting it's true.

If we think limiting ouselves to an arbitrary "one game a day and not every day" is equal to some kind of discipline then perhaps sports betting isn't the best activity for us.

Further, in no way, shape or form does that, by itself, equate to a form of money management.

Those pathways of thought, and that arbitray quote, are not conducive to long term betting success.

[d2bets]

Bet one game a day and not every day. Money management and discipline. -- Steve Stevens

One game a day is for losers betting for entertainment.

[KVB]

One game a day is for losers betting for entertainment.

Agreed. If that's one's form of money management and excercising discipline, then there is something wrong.

Again, many might not understand me here, but by itself it's not really responsible betting, even if it sounds like it.

[SlickFazzer]

Its more of a simple approach to keep one out of the soup kitchen later than sooner.

[texhooper]

That Steve Stevens guy is a total scammer albeit rather entertaining.

On his CNBC show Money Talks he would say that shit, would even specifically say bet same amount every game, then have a whale in town for three days, go 0-2, then have the guy pony up like $50k and brag at the end of the show about how he had his guy up while only going 1-2. So what part of “money management and discipline” is that?

Also they give out more than one game a day as documented on the show especially after a loser haha…just so stupid.

[SlickFazzer]

lol, that show was great entertainment.

JJ once actually called the office and spoke with Perellia, Steven's top salesman. ha.

Wonder where that video is.

[KVB]

Its more of a simple approach to keep one out of the soup kitchen later than sooner.

The person using that advice for that purpose should likely not be betting.

Sometmes it seems that these advertisers are actually targeting problem gamblers (I know it was Stevens quote, but I'm going a bit further here in this post).

Not all gamblers, but problem gamblers. They act like having tools to control your gambling issues are some kind of heroic help.

I get some of that, especially in relation to research on problem gambling and some proposed solutions to it, but the gambling companies should not be targeting problem gamblers.

I would expect the US regulators to address this issue.

I saw a commercial where Tony Hawk says you can use DK tools to prevent yourself from going everboard.

He says..."Now you don't HAVE TO bet more than you can afford!"...That's a direct target to people who feel they have to bet more than they can afford. Not sure DK is doing them any favors by appealing to them to gamble.

Yes, slighlty off topic but it relates in that we can distinguish the gambler who is playing for entertainment, but are we distingiuishing the problem gamblers from that group?

I think the industry in the US got ahead of itself there.

[texhooper]

Its more of a simple approach to keep one out of the soup kitchen later than sooner.

I personally try to keep it to one at a time, roughly, and while a super seasoned pro will say that’s arbitrary, a regular human like myself can fall into a trap where you take too much shit and get overwhelmed. If I go one at a time, or close to that, then it keeps my mental in a better spot, and my mental is what fukks me up more than anything.

One a day though is too limiting.

[texhooper]

lol, that show was great entertainment.

JJ once actually called the office and spoke with Perellia, Steven's top salesman. ha.

Wonder where that video is.

I remember that, he had Pirelli on the phone for like 15 minutes and as an avid watcher of the show I can tell you it was really him

[KVB]

I personally try to keep it to one at a time, roughly, and while a super seasoned pro will say that’s arbitrary, a regular human like myself can fall into a trap where you take too much shit and get overwhelmed. If I go one at a time, or close to that, then it keeps my mental in a better spot, and my mental is what fukks me up more than anything.

One a day though is too limiting.

I get that, but you clearly also recognize that if you can get a hold of and control of the mental, you might find you are passing up good bets.

My point is to work on getting a hold of the mental, so you don't have to limit yourself or even end up forcing a play to get a game in.

It's something everyone has to constantly work on, no doubt about it. It applies to all of us, with an emphasis on the US part of it.

[Brock Landers]

Still focus on pinnacle above basically any other books #'s

[Fishhead]

Still focus on pinnacle above basically any other books #'s

LOL

[texhooper]

I get that, but you clearly also recognize that if you can get a hold of and control of the mental, you might find you are passing up good bets.

My point is to work on getting a hold of the mental, so you don't have to limit yourself or even end up forcing a play to get a game in.

It's something everyone has to constantly work on, no doubt about it. It applies to all of us, with an emphasis on the US part of it.

Yeah I mean it’s not like I will NEVER take more than one at a time, but I know that if I challenge myself to whittle it down to only the best bets at any given time that I will have better success. And somehow magically I’ll usually end up betting on plenty of shit anyway. Funny how that works right. It’s more just a base mindset that I try to utilize to maximize the good picks and weed out the gambling.

[KVB]

“Weed out the gambling”



penetrating love it tex, I penetrating love it.

Please don’t sue me if I choose to use that phrase in a video I promise to give you credit.

[texhooper]

I’m coming for your ad revenue KVB!!

Nah man I welcome the fame from being quoted by you

[TommieGunshot]

screen watcher= Betting Steam, Betting best Number, Jumping Injuries

What's the definition of "Handicapper"?

[pologq]

the only thing that matters is winning

amen. i don't care how you do it. just win.