[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
wk 12: 4-5 ATS
wk13: 4-6 ATS
wk14: 5-1 ATS
wk15: 4-2 ATS
YTD: 95-67 ATS (.586)
(vs -110) +21.3 units

[agendaman]

with qb j. hurts currently listed as doubtful the line has gone from dallas at -1.5 to -6.5.wow.

[TheMoneyShot]

Chucky... I don't know if this is an angle or not? But I feel Washington's defense played damn good against the Giants. They got hosed by the refs... public will be all over San Francisco at Home -7... and "Golden Boy" Purdy. Must win game for Washington. Washington just has enough defense to shake up Purdy. My buddy "JACK" Del Rio will have a marvelous game plan.

Washington +7

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky... I don't know if this is an angle or not? But I feel Washington's defense played damn good against the Giants. They got hosed by the refs... public will be all over San Francisco at Home -7... and "Golden Boy" Purdy. Must win game for Washington. Washington just has enough defense to shake up Purdy. My buddy "JACK" Del Rio will have a marvelous game plan.

Washington +7

That's good stuff, Shot. I'll put you down for Wash +7, when I start the Summary.

Thanks for posting. Yes, these games make you think.

I listen to a lot of Rivera press conferences. Instinctively, I wouldn't be surprised to Rivera announce that he's starting Wentz. At a minimum, Heinecke is one turnover from Wentz coming off the bench.

And I agree w/ you on Purdy. Geno's fumble late in the 1h flipped that game. Niners have built up so much equity, the +7 could play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

with qb j. hurts currently listed as doubtful the line has gone from dallas at -1.5 to -6.5.wow.

That's amazing, Agenda. Per usual, an interesting slate of games.

[cincinnatikid513]

cle saints under 32.5 -110

lowest total in a decade supposed be cold and windy

cle under in 4 str
no under in 3 str

[pologq]

ravens -7.5 against the falcons as long as lamar jackson plays. i think with everyone on their ass for not scoring they are going to put up a big number this week and the falcons have regressed big time.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Shot and Cincy, putting you guys down:

455/456 NO/Cle: UNDER 32.5

469 Wash +7

Good Luck.

[pologq]

put me down chuck. i will ride it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

put me down chuck. i will ride it.

OK, thx, Polo! GL.

Summary of picks:
455/456 NO/Cle: UNDER 32.5

468 BALT -7.5
469 Wash +7

[edawg]

Carolina Kitty's +2.5

[agendaman]

browns-saints total is at 31.5 pts.just dunno.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Carolina Kitty's +2.5

Thx, dawg. And GL:


Summary of picks:
455/456 NO/Cle: UNDER 32.5
458 CAROL +2.5
468 BALT -7.5
469 Wash +7

[consom888]

Nice call on colts last week chuckythegoat!

any love for eagles +5 backup qb overreaction angle? (Walterfootball pick)

[jackpot269]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
wk 12: 4-5 ATS
wk13: 4-6 ATS
wk14: 5-1 ATS
wk15: 4-2 ATS
YTD: 95-67 ATS (.586)
(vs -110) +21.3 units

Unbelievable results so far. +21.3 units over 15 weeks of a crazy season
Great thread Chucky

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice call on colts last week chuckythegoat!

any love for eagles +5 backup qb overreaction angle? (Walterfootball pick)

Thanks, consom!

Still doing my legwork for this week. Here's my instinct on that game:

*A lot of chatter between players from those teams. I think it will be heated.

Even if the Eagles have the division wrapped, they will be playing for the seed. And they'd love to get Hurts max rest if he misses this week.

Hard to imagine that Hurts is worth THAT much of a line change. And who can't like the Minshew mustache?

Honestly, that game is probably a Pass for me. Too tough, IMHO.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Unbelievable results so far. +21.3 units over 15 weeks of a crazy season
Great thread Chucky

Trying, Jack:

*Trying to have fun w/ it.
*And trying to print a few Dead Presidents.

Looks like another interesting slate of games. Thanks to everyone for contributing.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 460 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3.5 (Fading: Bengals).

Can still find +3.5 at the full -110. I think it's perfectly good to play up to -115.

I'm playing the team that's been the butt of every guy's joke over the last 48 hours. Think about it. Count how many pundits who have clobbered the Patriots over the ridiculous finish vs the Raiders.

It's funny to everyone else. To the players, it's their job. They'll be on high alert this week...after Volcano Belichick sets off.

Consider how the games played out last week:
*Every armchair QB says the Raiders benefited from a TD that wasn't (to tie it up).
*Bengals were getting rolled at TBay. In the 2h maybe TB12's age showed up.

This week, the Bengals are priced to the moon (IMHO). And why not? The Patriots are a walkover, right?

As long as the key number "3" is relevant in NFL...there's a saying that the best NFL capper will do well in capturing the 3 when it should be priced 3 (tops). I think that's the situation here. I think we're capturing 3 (when it should 3) , largely b/c of the finish last week.

Good Luck. It's a play that takes some courage to make. So, I feel good about it.

[agendaman]

well my xmas day special.green bay plus 3.5 at -105.no weather problems here.if packers win their last 2 games and wash. loses theirs i believe g,bay makes playoffs.i also bet the g,b ml.gl all.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agenda, I'll give you the full +4. Plenty of those around:

Summary of picks:
455/456 NO/Cle: UNDER 32.5
458 CAROL +2.5
460 NEW ENG +3.5
468 BALT -7.5
469 Wash +7
475 GBay +4

Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice call on colts last week chuckythegoat!

any love for eagles +5 backup qb overreaction angle? (Walterfootball pick)

Consom, don't want to clutter the thread. Go here to see my NFL picks for wk16:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post31088198

[jackpot269]

Raiders +2.5 -108 heritage
Fading Pitts here, QB Pickett listed as questionable running back Harries is questionable and they will need all their offence to keep up

Raiders with big win last week maybe they have figured out how to play a little better in the 2nd half that's killed them all year.

Pitts Offense scoring. 17.9ppg
Raiders offense scoring 24.1 PPG
Pitts D giving. 22.1
Raiders giving..24.1

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx for posting, Jack. And GL on the Raiders:

Summary of picks:
455/456 NO/Cle: UNDER 32.5
458 CAROL +2.5
460 NEW ENG +3.5
468 BALT -7.5
469 Wash +7
473 Raiders +2.5
475 GBay +4

[calamity sue]

If you haven't heard, Lamar Jackson is out for tomorrow's game. Also Tyler Huntley was a LP yesterday with a shoulder injury. Also, just about everyone agrees that Minshew is NOT a five point drop from Hurts. I got the Eagles at +6 by buying a half when the line was 5'.

My pick??? The Eagles.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you haven't heard, Lamar Jackson is out for tomorrow's game. Also Tyler Huntley was a LP yesterday with a shoulder injury. Also, just about everyone agrees that Minshew is NOT a five point drop from Hurts. I got the Eagles at +6 by buying a half when the line was 5'.

My pick??? The Eagles.

Hi, Sue. For record purposes, we try to line up the -110 vs current lines.

I can give you Phi +4.5. You want that? Or pass?

[edawg]

Playing: 460 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3.5 (Fading: Bengals).

Can still find +3.5 at the full -110. I think it's perfectly good to play up to -115.

I'm playing the team that's been the butt of every guy's joke over the last 48 hours. Think about it. Count how many pundits who have clobbered the Patriots over the ridiculous finish vs the Raiders.

It's funny to everyone else. To the players, it's their job. They'll be on high alert this week...after Volcano Belichick sets off.

Consider how the games played out last week:
*Every armchair QB says the Raiders benefited from a TD that wasn't (to tie it up).
*Bengals were getting rolled at TBay. In the 2h maybe TB12's age showed up.

This week, the Bengals are priced to the moon (IMHO). And why not? The Patriots are a walkover, right?

As long as the key number "3" is relevant in NFL...there's a saying that the best NFL capper will do well in capturing the 3 when it should be priced 3 (tops). I think that's the situation here. I think we're capturing 3 (when it should 3) , largely b/c of the finish last week.

Good Luck. It's a play that takes some courage to make. So, I feel good about it.

" We are on too Cincinnati" Bill Belichick

[ChuckyTheGoat]

" We are on too Cincinnati" Bill Belichick

Yes, dawg. I thought of that exact quote.

Happy Holidays. Hope all is good.

[edawg]

Yes, dawg. I thought of that exact quote.

Happy Holidays. Hope all is good.

Merry Christmas God bless.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx for posting, Jack. And GL on the Raiders:

Summary of picks:
455/456 NO/Cle: UNDER 32.5 W
458 CAROL +2.5W
460 NEW ENG +3.5L
468 BALT -7.5W
469 Wash +7
473 Raiders +2.5
475 GBay +4

Some good picks in here. Props to edawg, Polo and Cincy. Better than me.

[Nate rasta]

I forgot to do one give me the LA Rams tomorrow plus 3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I forgot to do one give me the LA Rams tomorrow plus 3

OK, thanks, Nate.

Summary of picks:
455/456 NO/Cle: UNDER 32.5 W
458 CAROL +2.5W
460 NEW ENG +3.5L
468 BALT -7.5W
469 Wash +7
473 Raiders +2.5
475 GBay +4

478 LA Rams +3

[TheMoneyShot]

Sorry to ruin your thread and winning % chucky. I don't know why Washington +7 was my number 1 play. Damn it... it fukking sucked. Totally mad at myself.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sorry to ruin your thread and winning % chucky. I don't know why Washington +7 was my number 1 play. Damn it... it fukking sucked. Totally mad at myself.

No worries, Shot. Looked good going in.

Happy Holidays. Hope you enjoy this time.

[kingdom]

for some reason i love the colts. i don't expect an emotional letdown. i think 5 is a big number for that game.