[ChuckyTheGoat]

NFL week 13- Contrarian Angles

I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
wk 12: 4-5 ATS
YTD: 82-58 ATS (.586)

Been a struggle in the 2nd half of the year. Lines are tight, you need a little luck to hit these games.

Thx to all for contributing. Would be awesome to hit 60%+ for the year-end mark. Easier said than done.

[agendaman]

really tough time for cappers now.sharp lines teams eyeing the playoffs bad weather etc.we need the gambling gods to smile on us now and then.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

really tough time for cappers now.sharp lines teams eyeing the playoffs bad weather etc.we need the gambling gods to smile on us now and then.

Very tough, Agenda. Need a little luck to get by.

[pologq]

very tough as weeks go on. leaning bucs on monday night. don't like -3.5 though.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

very tough as weeks go on. leaning bucs on monday night. don't like -3.5 though.

Ya, Polo. My plan is to continue this thru Week 17.

Plan to skip week 18, just b/c so many of those games are "dead rubbers." Yes, these games are very tough to read.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

THUR: Bills at Patriots.

Good Luck this week, boys.

[agendaman]

i am so tire of dealing with bad weather conditions esp. as we get later in the season.there are 10 stadiums with domes.my weekly pick and personal bets will come from those games.p.s some key injuries at present guys.

[pologq]

i will go official on the bucs -3.5 at -110. i feel the line should be -5 even with the bucs struggles.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i will go official on the bucs -3.5 at -110. i feel the line should be -5 even with the bucs struggles.

Thank you, Polo! I'll mark you down on the Bucs. Good Luck.

[calamity sue]

Looks like I'm going with the Steelers again even though they are no longer at +1' but a pick now.

Watts might not play so I'm withdrawing the Steelers.

[TheLock]

I can’t decide between Jets or Washington

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 453 Denver Broncos +8.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I was ready to bet +8. # bumped up a tick to +8.5, which feels like a bonus to me.

Broncos are 1/10 to the UNDER this year. This screams how one-sided the Broncos are. Tough defense, but awful offense.

*Broncos are ranked 32nd in Scoring Offense (14ppg). So, Fantasy FB players can't back Denver.

*Tough defense that has been there all year. Bronco DEF keeps the team in the game.

+8.5 pt Dog with a Total of 38.5. So, Side is > 20% of the Total.

View this as a game where Broncos can hang the #. Ravens' biggest problem has been holding leads. So, I feel like the backdoor is wide-open here.

Ravens off another gut-punch loss, coughing up the lead to Jaguars last week. Still can't secure those late leads.

Trigger for me is that the media has been taking pot-shots at Wilson this week. FWIW, Hackett and one of the offensive linemen came to Wilson's defense. At least on the surface, looks like guys rowing the boat in the same direction.

Lastly, Jackson picked up a hamstring knock in practice. I fully expect him to play. But there's at least a chance he misses.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looks like I'm going with the Steelers again even though they are no longer at +1' but a pick now.

Sue, to your point, I've been frustrated w/ line-moves almost every week. Boy, you gotta be prepared early in the week to get down at the peak #.

[Tomatero]

I can’t decide between Jets or Washington

NY Jets

[jackpot269]

Fading the chargers taking the Raiders +2

This is 3rd week with raiders, going to ride them tell they screw me or throw me!

GL chucky thank you for this great thread

I go thru the thread At least 5 or 6 times every week and make sure I didn't miss anything!

[agendaman]

raiders-chargers over total of 51 at -105.these 2 teams have weapons to muster pts. eckler keenan allen dav. adams.a combined total near 70 woud not surprise me.we just gotta keep grindin lads. gl to us all.

[edawg]

San Fransicko -4

[TheLock]

NY Jets

Alright let’s do it, pally.

Jets +3 is my selection

[jackpot269]

i will go official on the bucs -3.5 at -110. i feel the line should be -5 even with the bucs struggles.

I was thinking same on spread!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Fading the chargers taking the Raiders +2

This is 3rd week with raiders, going to ride them tell they screw me or throw me!

GL chucky thank you for this great thread

I go thru the thread At least 5 or 6 times every week and make sure I didn't miss anything!

Salud, Jack. Ya, good info in here. Hope we turn it into a +$ week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Alright let’s do it, pally.

Jets +3 is my selection

Lock, there's a weather report coming out of Jets camp. Looks like we might see White Lightning on Sunday. GL.

[jackpot269]

Fading the chargers taking the Raiders +2

This is 3rd week with raiders, going to ride them tell they screw me or throw me!

GL chucky thank you for this great thread

I go thru the thread At least 5 or 6 times every week and make sure I didn't miss anything!

Chucky I saw this one at +2-110
And +1-103 so I posted the -110 didn't put price in original post sorry about that

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Summary of picks:

451 NY Jets +3
453 Denver +8.5
470 SAN FRAN -4
472 LAS VEGAS +2
472 Charg/Raid OVER 51

478 TAMPA BAY -3.5

Thanks to Jackpot, Agenda, Edawg, and Lock. Marking you down. Sue/Tomatero, confirm by quoting a price...and I'll make you down.

Good Luck, everyone. And thanks for posting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky I saw this one at +2-110
And +1-103 so I posted the -110 didn't put price in original post sorry about that

What was the price when you posted? I'm happy to change it to whatever you think is fair.

[jackpot269]

I took the 2 points it was at two different books

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I took the 2 points it was at two different books

OK, let's leave it. If the +2 was available at time of post, that's good. Thx for the honesty, Jack...and GL.

[cincinnatikid513]

What was the price when you posted? I'm happy to change it to whatever you think is fair.

almost all books by 632 pm today had raiders as -1 fav do not see any with raiders +2 at that time, of course doesn't matter because raiders are mushed with sean picking the raiders so good lucks raider backers

[Nate rasta]

Going back to the well

New York football Giants +2.5
Line should be flipped New York should be -3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going back to the well

New York football Giants +2.5
Line should be flipped New York should be -3

Summary of picks:

451 NY Jets +3
453 Denver +8.5
462 NY GIANTS +2.5
470 SAN FRAN -4
472 LAS VEGAS +2


472 Charg/Raid OVER 51
478 TAMPA BAY -3.5

Thank you, Nate! Good Luck on the Giants.

[StackinGreen]

Summary of picks:

451 NY Jets +3
453 Denver +8.5
462 NY GIANTS +2.5
470 SAN FRAN -4
472 LAS VEGAS +2


472 Charg/Raid OVER 51
478 TAMPA BAY -3.5

Thank you, Nate! Good Luck on the Giants.

Good luck this weekend

[pologq]

broncos definitely feels like a lot of points. their defense is still playing great. i could see a 17-10 game.

[OldBill]

using my ats charts fadeing the vikings because of the huge DD crossover from -35.5 to plus 4.5 is huge 40 points in one game

taking the JETS +3 team is tough now mike white lit up last foe

[Tomatero]

Alright let’s do it, pally.

Jets +3 is my selection

Good luck amigo 🍀 🏈