1. #1
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    NFL week 03- Contrarian Angles

    Going to try this as a weekly thread.

    Good news is that I don't think we should be worried about too much traffic on this site. Now a smaller community. Handful of guys that might have opinions.

    Just looking for a few things:
    *State your play. "Fading A, backing B".
    *Give a reason to FADE the anti-team.
    *Give a reason why you think it may play out differently than most might think.

    Thanks!

  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    In the first two weeks, these picks have exceeded any expectations. By my count, 5-2 in wk01 and a perfect 10-0 in wk02.

    I'm gonna start it out. Playing: 468 Carolina +3. Fading: New Orl.

    Can still get -110. Feel like the juice may move toward -120.

    Just don't like Jameis. He's too loose w/ the ball.

    Carolina comes in at 0-2. Two close losses where they didn't have enough grit. Good chance for pts to play here.

    Carolina on 9-game losing streak, may be tough to back. GL.

  3. #3
    edawg
    edawg's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-11
    Posts: 2,558
    Betpoints: 100

    Take the points with Indy. KC is not as good as most people think and Indy isn't as bad as people think.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/22/2022


  4. #4
    Seaweed
    Update your status
    Seaweed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-12
    Posts: 26,161
    Betpoints: 5937

    Indy had same points as me

    But not as bad as you think because they dressed up

  5. #5
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Quote Originally Posted by edawg View Post
    Take the points with Indy. KC is not as good as most people think and Indy isn't as bad as people think.
    OK, we have edawg (and Weed) down on Indy +6.5, which is the current line.

    Good one. Indy looks dead as disco. My thing about KC is: How leaky is their Pass Def? They did have a huge INT vs Herbert last week.

  6. #6
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 16,156
    Betpoints: 356

    i know people are not high on the broncos right now but i am liking them +1 at home against the 49ers. i feel like the coach and russ know they need to show the fans and the league that they are fine. it is a sunday night game and russ needs to make a statement against a team he knows well.

  7. #7
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 26,125
    Betpoints: 43308

    SF-1.5 @Denver...With Jimmy G back at QB, SF is a MUCH better team and better than Denver on both sides of the ball and a big coaching advantage. Denver has been a complete shitshow the first couple of games under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett seems completely overwhelmed and Denver has had a lot of procedural issues(getting plays in way too late resulting in numerous delay of game penalties, no returner on the field on special teams etc). Something that I have never seen in my life in an NFL game happened the other day in the Texans/Denver game, the Broncos fans were counting down the play clock like they do in basketball!! That is downright embarrassing. Remember, the new owners(Walton family) did not hire him and if this comedy of errors continues much longer, Hackett could be one and done in Denver.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat, and GunShard
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/26/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/22/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/15/2022


  8. #8
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 26,125
    Betpoints: 43308

    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    i know people are not high on the broncos right now but i am liking them +1 at home against the 49ers. i feel like the coach and russ know they need to show the fans and the league that they are fine. it is a sunday night game and russ needs to make a statement against a team he knows well.
    well, one of us will be right...

    gl on your other wagers
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/26/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/22/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/15/2022


  9. #9
    Pigpen
    High On The Hogs
    Pigpen's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-09-08
    Posts: 2,279
    Betpoints: 6263

    Quote Originally Posted by edawg View Post
    Take the points with Indy. KC is not as good as most people think and Indy isn't as bad as people think.
    My thoughts exactly. I see Indy +7 -115 offshore.

  10. #10
    MiDNiTe
    MiDNiTe's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-11-13
    Posts: 6,806
    Betpoints: 18579

    I like Detroit +6 and ml but don't know if I'm overreacting to that terrible performance from cousins

  11. #11
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 16,156
    Betpoints: 356

    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    well, one of us will be right...

    gl on your other wagers
    hahahahaha very true

  12. #12
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 16,156
    Betpoints: 356

    Quote Originally Posted by MiDNiTe View Post
    I like Detroit +6 and ml but don't know if I'm overreacting to that terrible performance from cousins
    i did not see this line but i like detroit +6. key division game.

  13. #13
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    i know people are not high on the broncos right now but i am liking them +1 at home against the 49ers. i feel like the coach and russ know they need to show the fans and the league that they are fine. it is a sunday night game and russ needs to make a statement against a team he knows well.
    OK, I'll put Polo down for Broncos +1.5. Going h2h w/ Jake's San Fran -1.5.

    Good Luck! Polo also down for DET +6.

  14. #14
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    My thoughts exactly. I see Indy +7 -115 offshore.
    Good Luck. This one will be a game Handicappers have eye on for sure.

    Colts have been bad. But is the # too hi? That's...why they play the games.

  15. #15
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Denver HC is a true fuq-up. Go to this video and watch 13:00.

    Very well said:
    1) Did he think McManus was kicking in thin air?
    2) Did he think 47+17=54?
    3) Did he think McManus was > 10% at 64 yards?

  16. #16
    GunShard
    Invest In Ethereum To Be A Millionaire
    GunShard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-10
    Posts: 9,616

    The public is all over the Chiefs against the Colts.
    Not only do you fade the public. The Colts just came back from two road games and this is their home opener.
    Bet on the Colts home dog home opener.

  17. #17
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,579
    Betpoints: 1423

    Quote Originally Posted by GunShard View Post
    The public is all over the Chiefs against the Colts.
    Not only do you fade the public. The Colts just came back from two road games and this is their home opener.
    Bet on the Colts home dog home opener.
    agree but injuries to key players like Pittman are a cause for concern. But would take the number here.

  18. #18
    jackpot269
    You are blind to the truth
    jackpot269's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-24-07
    Posts: 8,777
    Betpoints: 3747

    New England +3

    If you saw this before edit ,forget you did I dont know what I was thinking!!

    The O-line is playing well I saw Strange play in collage and he pushed people around in that league, it was easy to see he could have played at a bigger school I didnt know how well he would do in the NFL but with his mobility could be a pro bowler! Jones looked much improved week 2 and coach going to have a good plan to slow down Lamar

    Ravens coming off a huge first half last week and a let down in 2nd half cost them the game Bill B knows how to take advantage of every angle. the phins D bad was bad in 1st half and stopped Lamar 2nd half, NE D should be ready will see, Chucky thats why they play the game!!



    Just a little on the SF and Denver most everyone was big on Dever coming into this year, I didnt see it, but SF I thought last year was so close to making that leap to SB, they keep making silly mistakes at bad times, they are my biggest disappointment(besides Raiders) so far this year I thought they could go to the NFC Championship game if QB worked out and now they got Jimmy back AND he will look great for 3 weeks then dodo the bed for a week or two but he can defiantly play
    Last edited by jackpot269; 09-20-22 at 12:08 PM.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat

  19. #19
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 16,156
    Betpoints: 356

    pats as a home dog is very tempting. have to wonder what that loss does to the ravens this week.

  20. #20
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 26,125
    Betpoints: 43308

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Denver HC is a true fuq-up. Go to this video and watch 13:00.

    Very well said:
    1) Did he think McManus was kicking in thin air?
    2) Did he think 47+17=54?
    3) Did he think McManus was > 10% at 64 yards?
    Chucky, i can't remember seeing any head coach so overwhelmed and a team making this many basic day 1 mistakes in my 30+ years of watching football.

    Interesting thing about that 64 yard fg attempt at the end of the game in Seattle, Hackett doubled down on the fact that before the drive started that was within the area that they had earmarked in which they felt comfortable attempting the game winning field goal. Then week 2, IN DENVER, he passed up a 59 yard field goal and punted. This guy does not seem to know which way is up. I highly doubt everything will get ironed out this seems like a systematic failure...can't wait to see what happens this week.

    Maybe Denver wins but i can't back this dog and pony show.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/26/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/22/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/15/2022


  21. #21
    jackpot269
    You are blind to the truth
    jackpot269's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-24-07
    Posts: 8,777
    Betpoints: 3747

    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    Chucky, i can't remember seeing any head coach so overwhelmed and a team making this many basic day 1 mistakes in my 30+ years of watching football.

    Interesting thing about that 64 yard fg attempt at the end of the game in Seattle, Hackett doubled down on the fact that before the drive started that was within the area that they had earmarked in which they felt comfortable attempting the game winning field goal. Then week 2, IN DENVER, he passed up a 59 yard field goal and punted. This guy does not seem to know which way is up. I highly doubt everything will get ironed out this seems like a systematic failure...can't wait to see what happens this week.

    Maybe Denver wins but i can't back this dog and pony show.
    I agree Jake I didnt put it at the end of my post, and after reading again I wasnt clear, but I think SF is the play if any, just against the Bears they looked bad but so was the weather, they looked a lot better this week

  22. #22
    edawg
    edawg's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-09-11
    Posts: 2,558
    Betpoints: 100

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Denver HC is a true fuq-up. Go to this video and watch 13:00.

    Very well said:
    1) Did he think McManus was kicking in thin air?
    2) Did he think 47+17=54?
    3) Did he think McManus was > 10% at 64 yards?
    Love how people think they would definitely get the 4th and 5 then definitely make the field goal not mentioning penalties, turnovers, or clock running out. It is not that terrible of a decision that people are making it out to be.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/22/2022


  23. #23
    Enkhbat
    Enkhbat's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-18-11
    Posts: 2,743
    Betpoints: 25073

    In the 49ers vs Broncos game, I really think it is toss up. I like the under 45 here, both teams have solid defense, not so inspiring offenses. This is going to be one of those field position games, probably comes down to FG late. Kind of like the Cowboys/Bengals game last week. Prediction 49ers 20, Broncos 17

  24. #24
    CJ
    CJ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-21-13
    Posts: 1,206
    Betpoints: 5366

    How is taking SF "contrarian" this week? Public hammered the Niners moving the line 3 points already.

    I'll say Giants as an actual contrarian play. Moved from Giants -4.5 to -2.5 all because America's team upset the Bengals. Dallas played that game with a lot of heart as 7 point home dogs, while Cincy came out flat from their week 1 OT loss. Burrow still doesn't look right either, post-appendectomy.

    This week I expect Cooper Rush to revert to normal behind his mediocre o-line and diminishing weapons. Playing on the road against a Giants fanbase that will be PUMPED their team is 2-0 going into MNF won't help Rush either.

    Really just comes down to if Daniel Jones can avoid too many red zone turnovers.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat

  25. #25
    CJ
    CJ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-21-13
    Posts: 1,206
    Betpoints: 5366

    Quote Originally Posted by edawg View Post
    Love how people think they would definitely get the 4th and 5 then definitely make the field goal not mentioning penalties, turnovers, or clock running out. It is not that terrible of a decision that people are making it out to be.
    Imagine siding with Hackett.

  26. #26
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    Chucky, i can't remember seeing any head coach so overwhelmed and a team making this many basic day 1 mistakes in my 30+ years of watching football.

    Interesting thing about that 64 yard fg attempt at the end of the game in Seattle, Hackett doubled down on the fact that before the drive started that was within the area that they had earmarked in which they felt comfortable attempting the game winning field goal. Then week 2, IN DENVER, he passed up a 59 yard field goal and punted. This guy does not seem to know which way is up. I highly doubt everything will get ironed out this seems like a systematic failure...can't wait to see what happens this week.

    Maybe Denver wins but i can't back this dog and pony show.
    Yes, he's made himself look bad. What a complete asshole. As if you could ever blame the kicker for NOT making the longest outdoor sea-level FG ever.

    Funny thing is that Russell is made for converting those 4th-and-5s. Can hit the crossing route or scramble. As bad as Denver has looked, they could easily be 2-0.

  27. #27
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 90,341
    Betpoints: 1951

    Surprised no one likes the Packers. They win that game

  28. #28
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Surprised no one likes the Packers. They win that game
    I look at it as one of those where it's known the injuries have accumulated for TB. Know you're catching a short price going in.

    But I agree with you. They have a very good chance to win vs depleted TB team.

  29. #29
    DrunkHorseplayer
    Redskins forever
    DrunkHorseplayer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-10
    Posts: 6,254
    Betpoints: 13884

    Quote Originally Posted by CJ View Post
    How is taking SF "contrarian" this week? Public hammered the Niners moving the line 3 points already.

    I'll say Giants as an actual contrarian play. Moved from Giants -4.5 to -2.5 all because America's team upset the Bengals. Dallas played that game with a lot of heart as 7 point home dogs, while Cincy came out flat from their week 1 OT loss. Burrow still doesn't look right either, post-appendectomy.

    This week I expect Cooper Rush to revert to normal behind his mediocre o-line and diminishing weapons. Playing on the road against a Giants fanbase that will be PUMPED their team is 2-0 going into MNF won't help Rush either.
    to he
    Really just comes down to if Daniel Jones can avoid too many red zone turnovers.
    Daniel Jones has been known to have a hard time avoiding turnovers, tough call but gun to head I take Dallas.

  30. #30
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 16,156
    Betpoints: 356

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Surprised no one likes the Packers. They win that game
    i am always afraid betting against brady and all that encompasses

  31. #31
    USCPHILLYGUY
    HORSES MODERATOR
    USCPHILLYGUY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-15-12
    Posts: 20,864
    Betpoints: 15290

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    OK, I'll put Polo down for Broncos +1.5. Going h2h w/ Jake's San Fran -1.5.

    Good Luck! Polo also down for DET +6.
    Already on SF +2 on Monday. Get your bets in early

  32. #32
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Quote Originally Posted by USCPHILLYGUY View Post
    Already on SF +2 on Monday. Get your bets in early
    Hope things are good, Philly. Health & wealth for you.

    Man, this new USC coach looks like a stud. Does anyone run a smoother offense? How long until he becomes HC of Dallas Cowboys?

  33. #33
    jackpot269
    You are blind to the truth
    jackpot269's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-24-07
    Posts: 8,777
    Betpoints: 3747

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    I look at it as one of those where it's known the injuries have accumulated for TB. Know you're catching a short price going in.

    But I agree with you. They have a very good chance to win vs depleted TB team.
    I think Mike Evans is suspended for this game also.

  34. #34
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 22,954
    Betpoints: 12357

    Quote Originally Posted by jackpot269 View Post
    I think Mike Evans is suspended for this game also.
    That's what I meant. The injuries/suspension have them depleted at WR. Had to pick up Beasley from the street.

  35. #35
    jackpot269
    You are blind to the truth
    jackpot269's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-24-07
    Posts: 8,777
    Betpoints: 3747

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    That's what I meant. The injuries/suspension have them depleted at WR. Had to pick up Beasley from the street.
    I figured you knew, but just saw injuries in you post, I went ahead and took them now in case the changes!!

123 Last
Top