[OldBill]

I always did fade teams after a real 1 point loss like missed FG or other team beat them with a FG NOT becuse a player took helmet off or other rule broken



again an * means s/u fav loss also it's a DOG loss by 1 point in most games 2007 - 2017 11 seasons

CARDINALS

2013 +3.5 @GB L 21-22 home -5.5 vs WASH L$ 27-24 0-1

2016 -2.5 L 6-6 Tie +3 @ Panther L 20-30 0-2

Falcons
2009 +7 L 33-34 @ NYG -12 HOME L $ vs T B 20-17 0-1
2011 +1 L @ T B 15-16 -6 @ Seat. L $ 30-28 0-2
2015 +1.5 @ T B L 22-23 +9 @ Panthers L 0-38 0-3
2016 +7 @ seat L 25-26 home -5 vs Chargers L 30-33 0-4 1* total so far 0-6 1*

RAVENS
2007 +2 vs Browns L 32-33 +9 @ San D L 14-32 0-1
2008 +6 @ steel L 22-23 +1 home vs Tenn. L 10-13 0-2
2009 +1.5 L vs colts 16-17 -7.5 vs steelers L$ 20-17 0-3
2010 +3 L 22-23 @ N E -12.5 Vs Bills L$ 37-34 0-4
2012 +3 L 23-24 @ Philly -2.5 home vs Pats L $ 31-30 0-5
2013 +2.5 vs G. B. L 18-19 +2.5 at steelers L 16-19 0-6
2015 +3@Miami L14-15 +10 vs seattle L 6-35 0-7
2017 +4.5 L @ Steelers 38-39 -1 @ Browns W 27-10 1-7 total 1-13 1*

BILLS
07 +3 L vs Denv 14-15 +10 @ Steel L 3-26 0-1
09 +13 L @ N. E. 24-25 -4 home vs T B W 33-20 1-1 but after that win went 0-3 ats next 3 and s/u
10 +6.5 vs steel L 18-19 +5 @ vikes L 14-38 1-2
11 +9 @ jets L 26-28 -1 home vs tenn L 17-23 1-3 1*
12 -4 vs TENN L 34-35 +11 RESTED @ Texans L 9-21 1-4
13 -5 vs atl. L 33-34 +3 @ Bucs L 6-27 (game vs atl was at rodgers center) 1-5
15+1.5 @ Philly L 22-23 -2.5 @ wash L 25-35 1-6 2*
16 -2.5 @ Miami L 27-28 +5.5 home vs Pats L 25-41 1-7 2*
TOTAL so far 2-20 3* 91 % OMG at 100$ per game you won $2000 LOST $220 $1780 NET @ $500 per game W$10,000 L $1100 $8900 NET 809.09 profit per year at $1000 per game
WIN $20,000 LOST $2200 $17,800 net $1618 per year

PANTHERS
2010 +12.5 @ saints L 15-16 -3 home vs bears L 6-23 0-1 1*
2012 +7 @ ATL L 28-30 -1.5 home vs Seat L 12-16 0-2 2*
14 +7 @ cincy Tied 37-37 +6.5 @ pack L 17-38 0-3 2--*
2016 -3 vs chiefs L 19-20 -3.5 @ saints L $ 23-20 0-4 2*
TOTAL 2-24 5* 92.3% this is best system i ever developed

[OldBill]

BEARS
08-+3 @ CAR. L 19-20 -3 H vs T B L 24-27 0-1 1*
09--+3.5 vs philly L 23-24 +11 @ Vikes L 10-36 0-2 1*
2011 +3@ DENV L 12-13 -9 H vs KC L 3-10 0-3 2*
2013 +1 vs DET L 20-21 -3.5 vs Ravens L$ 23-20 0-4 2*
15 +3.5@DET L 36-37 +1.5 rested vs vikes L 20-24 0-5 2*
16 +4.5 vs pack L 29-30 +3 vs WASH TNF L 21-41 0-6 2*
2017 -3 vs 49ers L 14-15 +6 @ CINCY W33-7 1-6 2*

TOTAL 3--30 7* 90.9%
BENGALS I betcha Cincy lost BY 1 then lost to bears
07--+3@ Seat. L 23-24 +7.5 H vs pats L 13-34 MNF 0-1
08 +9 vs Philly TIE 13-13 +12 @ Steelrs L10-27 0-2
09 -8.5@ oak L 19-20 -13.5 vs browns L $ 16-7 0-3
10 -2.5@browns L 22-23 -6.5 home vs bucs L 21-24 0-4 1*
+6.5 vs saints L 33-34 +8.5 @ Steel L 7-23 0-5 1*
11 +3@ DENV. L 23-24 -1 vs 49ers L 8-13 0-6 2*
12 -3 vs miami L 16-17 -1 @ browns L 24-34 0-7 3*
13 -3@ miami L 21-22 +1.5 @ ravens L 17-20 0-8 3*
14 -7 vs Car. tied 37-37 +3@ colts L 0-27 0-9 3*
15 +3.5 @ DENV. L 19-20 -9.5 VS Balty L$ 24-17 0-10 3*
2016 -3 vs wash @LONDON TIED 27-27
rested PCKEM @ Giants L 20-21 MNF 0-11 3*
2017 +4.5vs Steelers L 22-23 MNF -6 Vs Bears L 7-33 0-12 4*
WORST so far NEW TOTAL 3--42 11* 93.3%

ok at 1000$ per game you won $42,000 lost $3300 NET profit $38,700.00 $3518.18 per year

[chargers4222]

Repost closer to the season starting and I'll keep an eye on it.

[johnnyvegas13]

Sounds flukey

y would losing by 1 mean anything

[OldBill]

Sounds flukey

y would losing by 1 mean anything

it seems to be the worst type of defeat in NFL and causes teams to fail next game BUT NOT College Foots they get pissed off and crack next opponent

again these results are from 2007 thru 2017 i'll update them when i get 2022 playbook

[d2bets]

TLDR
What's the summary record?

[johnnyvegas13]

it seems to be the worst type of defeat in NFL and causes teams to fail next game BUT NOT College Foots they get pissed off and crack next opponent

again these results are from 2007 thru 2017 i'll update them when i get 2022 playbook

Is it enough there for an actual trend thi

alot of trends mean nothing

[texhooper]

The key here really Oldbill is what’s happened the last five years with this system of yours

[texhooper]

TLDR
What's the summary record?

It appears as though fading a team ATS off a one point loss in the NFL from 2007 to 2017 has hit at about a 90% rate. According to what he’s posted at least, if you trust that

[OldBill]

The key here really Oldbill is what’s happened the last five years with this system of yours

WILL update when new Playbook comes out using past 11 years 2010 - 2021

BROWNS 2009 ----
@DET +3 L 37-38 @CINCY +13 L COVER 7-16 1-0
2010 @ Tampa bay +3 L 16-17 -3 Home vs KC L 14-16 1-1 1*
11 +6.5 @ Cincy L 22-23 +7 vs Balty L 10-24 1-2 1*
12+8.5 VS Phily L 16-17 +6.5 @ Cincy L 27-34 1-3 1*
13--+9.5 @ Pats L L 26 -27 vs Bears home pckem L 31-38 1-4 1*
14 +1.5 L 22-23 vs Balty -1.5 at TENN L$ 29-28 and had bye week but trap game they hd steelers up next at home 1-5 1*
wow again +3 L vs INDY 24-25 -2.5 vs Cincy L 0-30 1-6 2*
2016--+2.5 vs Jets L 30-31 +7 vs C boys L 10-35 1-7 2*
in 2016 they went 1 -15
2017---+9 vs steelers L 20-21 @ balty +8.5 L 10-24 1-8 2*
-1 vs Jets L 16-17 +10@ HOU. L 17-33 --------1-9 2*
+6 vs TENN L in O T 9-12 VS Minny @ london +10.5 L 16-33---1-10 2*
and went 0-16 this year only 1 win out 32 games THEEEE WORST TEAM IN AFC by far

TOTAL 4-52 13*

COWBOYS
08 -10vs Wash L 25-26 - 16.5 vs Cincy L$ 31-22 0-1
10 +1.5 @ Vikes L 23-24 -3.5 MNF VS NYG L 35-41 0-2 1*
+3.5 VS Philly L 29-30 -9 vs wash L$ 33-30 0-3 1* WADE PHILLIPS FIRED after 8 games going 1-7 and 1-7 ATS
11 +6 @ JETS L 26-27 -3.5 @ SF L$ 27-24 0-4 1*
12 +3 @ balty L 30-31 -2.5 @ Panthers W 19-14 1-4 1*
13 +3 L 30-31 @ det. -8 vs minny L $ 27-24 1-5 1*
-4 vs Pack L 36-37 -3 @ wash L$ 24-23 1-6 1*
14 -9 MNF L 19-20 vs WASH -1 vs Cards L 17-28 1-7 2*
15 +4 L vs seat 12-13 +3 vs Philly L 27-33 1-8 2*
+3 vs JETS L 18-19 +6 @ Bills L 6-16 1-9 2*
16 -1 L vs NYG 19-20 +3 @ wash W 27-23 2-10 2*
made playoffs lost s/u to Pack at home 31-34 -5.5 finl game +6.5 @ Philly didnt play losing 12 -27
TOTAL 6-62 15* 91% $1000 per game you win $62,000 LOSE $6600 $55,400 NET $5036.36 NET per year

[OldBill]

i'm also seeing a lot of teams L by only 2 or 3 points as DOGS then fail next game wherever they play will see with new playbook if enough results and get a high win % 80% or more

[d2bets]

It appears as though fading a team ATS off a one point loss in the NFL from 2007 to 2017 has hit at about a 90% rate. According to what he’s posted at least, if you trust that

Sample size?

[texhooper]

Like 20 games per ten years at a glance. So mortgage your house on each one and you have a winning strategy

[stevenash]

I never thought I'd live to see the day where somebody was more anal retentive than me.

[OldBill]

adding more but dropped couple teams because not enough results
BRONCOS

07 +1.5 L @ chi. 35-37 -3.5 @oak. L 20-34 0-1 1*
10 +3.5 L 22-24 vs jets -7 vs oak L 14-59 0-2 2*
11 -3 L 22-23 vs oak -3 vs cincy L$ 24-22 0-3 2*
15 -3 L 26-27 @indy -3.5 vs kc L 13-29 0-4 3*
16 +1 @tenn L 11-13 +4 vs pats L 3-17 0-5 3*
17 -2.5 vs cincy L 19-20 +5 @ oak L 14-24 0-6 3*
TOTAL 6-68 18* 91.89% only 26.4% S/U fav losses and we have 22 teams left

LIONS
07 +10.5 L vs C boys 27-28 +9.5 @ san d L 14-51 0-1
08 +13 @ CHI L 25-27 +6 home vs Jags L 14-38 0-2 was 0-16 year
09 NONE 2-14 yr.
10 +14.5 @ G.B. L 27-28 -3 vs Rams W 44-6 1-2
+1.5@ Bills L 12-14 +6 at C boys L 19-35 1-3
12 -3.5@ TENN L 42-44 -3.5 VS Minny L 13-20 1-4 1*
-7 vs Colts L 34-35 +6 @ G.B. L 20-27 1-5 1*
+3 VS HOU. L 32-34 -7 vs INDY L 33-35 1-6 2*
13 -3 VS Cincy L 26-27 -3 VS C boys L$ 31-30 1-7 2*
-4.5 vs balty MNF L 16-18 -9.5 vs NYG L 22-23 1-8 3*
-2.5 finl game @ Vikes L 13-14 1-9 4*
15 +10 @ seat. L 11-13 +5 vs ariz L 17-42 1-10 4*
BTW they cannot win @ Cards only 1 win past 15 or more times
16 -6 vs TEN L 15-16 +6 @ G B L 27-34 1-11 4*
17 -3 VS CAR. L 25-27 +6 @ saints L 38-52 1-12 4*
TOTAL 7-80 22* 91.9% at $1000 per game WIN $80,000.00 LOSE -7700$ $72,300 NET +$6572.72 per year omg imagine 1000 @ Vegas doing this
whew vegas be negative $6,572,727.27 MILLION shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh dont give this away
what i notice is when these teams were winning whole gme and lose by 2 points or 1 atend really causes fails ats next game 2012 vs TENN game i remember that happening
and in 2016 again VS TENN lost it at end

PACKERS
08 +2.5@ vikes L 27-28 -3.5 vs bears W 1-0
-3 vs car L 33-35 -7 vs hou L 21-24 1-1 1*
09 +3@ steel L 36-37 -13.5 vs seat W 48-10 2-1 1*
10 -3 @Chi L 18-20 -14.5 vs det L $ 28-26 2-2 1*
12-3@Seat L 12-14 (int was ruled TD by scab refs) -7.5 vs saints L$28-27 2-3 1*
13 -6 vs minny Ted 26-26 +6.5 @ DET L10 -40 2-4 1*
16 +3 L@ATl. 32-33 -7.5 vs indy L 26-31 2-5 2*recommend not use packers not enough results same as Cardinals only 2 games
TOTAL 9-85 24* 90.4%

adjusting removing cards 2 games packers 7 games

we are 7 - 78 22* 91.7%

TEXANS
07 -2 L vs tenn. 36-38 +10 @ san d L 10-35 0-1
09 -4 L 18-20 mnf rested too L vs tenn +3 vs indy L 27-35 0-2 and one more time vegas mkes em chlk @ jags -1.5 L 4th str8 game 18-23
13 1.5 L vs seat 21 23 +4.5 @ SF L 3-34 0-3 HC KUBIAK FIRED AFTER 13 games won 1st 2 lost the rest
14 +4.5 @ c boys L 18-20 +2.5 vs indy L 28-33 tnf 0-4

NOT enough results 1 more in 17 0-5 so we stay at 7-78 22* at 1000$ per game WIN $78,000.00 LOSE -7700$ $70,300.00 NET $6390.90 per year

COLTS
07 +5.5 L 22-24 vs pats -3.5 @ san D. L 21-23 0-1 1*
08 -4 vs jags L 22-23 -4.5 @ HOU. L$ 31-27 0-2 1*
10 +3 @ philly L 24 -26 -7 vs cincy L $ 23-17 0-3 1*
+4@ pats L 29-31 -2 vs san d. L 14-36 0-4 1*
11 -1.5 L vs KC 26-28 +5@ cincy L 17-27 0-5 1* SUCK for LUCK year went 2 -14
15 +8.5 L@car 28-29 +3 vs denv W 27-24 1-5 1*
17 +10 L vs steel 18-20 bye week +3.5 @ tenn L 20-24 1-6 1* lost 4 morte games out of playoffs

TOTAL 8-84 23* 91.3%
JAGUARS
07 -7.5 L 11-13 vs TENN. -10 vs ATL L$ 13-7 0-1
08 -7 @cincy L 19-21 -6 @det W 38-14 1-1 then lose next 4 games s/u and ATS ????
09 +6.5@ INDY L 12-14 -3 vs cards L 17-31 1-2 1*
-2 vs miami L 12-14 +3 vs indy L 31-35 1-3 1* and lost final 2 games losing 4 str8 7-9 yr.
10 -6.5 vs wash L 18-20 +4.5 @hou. L17-34 1-4 1*
11 +1.5@cleve L 12-14 +6 vs hou L 1-5 1*
12 +3.5 @minny L 24-26 +6.5 vs hou. L 7-27 1-6
13 +4 vs tenn L 18-20 +10.5@ indy L 10-30 1-7 1*
14 0-6 start +4 L@tenn 15-16 +4 vs browns W 24-6 2-7 1* then lost 4str8 after that and ATS 1 fav loss 3-13 season
15 +4 @indy L 14-16 +1 @ bucs L 31-38 2-8 1*
16 +5 vs Pack L 25-27 +3 @ San D. L 14-38 2-9 1*
-3 vs hou. L 22-24 +5 @ DET L 19-26 2-10 1* that was 5 str8 losses and lost 4 more 9 str8 games LOST
TOTAL 10-94 90.3% 24*

shhhhhhhhhhh do not give out this system even with new Playbook using past 11 years not much will change i suspect 2011 to 2021 because many of these results include 2011 thru 2017 so those results will be same from 2011- -2021

[OldBill]

CHIEFS
07 +14.5 L @ colts 11-13 -4 vs oak L 17-20 0-1 1*
08 +6 L 21-22 vs san d. +3.5 vs miami L 31-38 0-2 1*
09 -2 L vs oak 11-13 +7.5 @ philly L 14-34 0-3 1*
10 -1 @oak. L 21-23 -1 @ denv. L 29-49 0-4 2*
11 +14 @ san d L 17-20 +3 VS Vikes W 22-17 1-4 2* 4 game win streak then poof lost 4 str8 1-3 ats 2 x fav Todd haley fired after 13 games
2012 +6 vs balty L 7-9 +4.5 @ bucs L 10-38 1-5 2* romeo crennel 1 yr 2-14
13 ANDY reid starts NONE
14 -7 @ oak L 22-24 +1 vs denv. L 16-29 1-6 2*
15 -9 vs chi. L 17-18 +3 @ minny L 10-16 1-7 2*
16 -7 vs bucs L 17-19 +3.5 @ denv . W 2-7 2*
-6 vs ten L 17-19 trap game betwen div rivals oak den, n san d -3.5 vs denv W 33-10 3-7 2*
17 -3 @ OAK L 30-31 TNF -7 VS Denv L$ 24 -19 3-8 2*
and after the WIN LOST 4 str8 games ATS even after bye 3 X favored

TOTAL 13-102 26* 88.7%

CHARGERS
08 -9 vs panters L 24-26 -1 @ denver LOSE 38-39 0-1 1*
but -8 vs JETS W 48-29 1-1 1*
+4.5@Steel L 10-11 (i remember this game big controversry tht pass was illegal took TD off board ) -3 VS Indy L 20-23 1-2 2*
10 -8.5 @ st lou L 18-20 -2.5 vs pats L 20-23 1-3 3*
12 -3 @ cleve L 6-7 -7 vs kc tnf W 31-13 2-3 3*
+1.5 vs balty L 14-16 -1 vs cincy L 13-20 2-4 4*
14 +3 @ cards L 17-18 +5 vs seat W 30-21 3-4 4*
-3 vs KC L 21-23 +9 @ denv L 21-35 3-5 4*
15 +4.5 @ balty L 27-29 -3.5 vs chi L 19-22 mnf 3-6 5*
16 +2 @ indy L 23-26 -4 vs saints L 34-35 3-7 5*
+3.5 @ OAK W $ L 31-34 4-7 5*
+2.5 vs oak L 16-19 -4 @ cleve L 17-20 4-8 5* and lost last game finsh 0-5 skid s/u and ATS fav 2x
2017 NEW HC anthony LYNN
+3 @ Denver L 22-24 MNF -4 vs Miami L 17-19 4-9 6*
TOTAL 17 --111 87% 32*

RAMS
07 -3 vs SF L 16-17 *3.5 @ bucs L 3-24 0-1
+4 vs cards L 32-34 +9 @ balty L 3-22 0-2
08 +7 vs miami L 14-16 +14.5 @ cards L 10-34 0-3
+3.5 vs SF L 16-17 +14 @ atl .W$ L 27-31 1-3
+3 @ saints L 27-29 -5.5 vs bucs L$ 13-10 1-4
09 +7 @nyg L 32-34 -12 vs bucs L $ 20-17 1-5
11 +1 @ bucs L 13-16 -6 @ seat L$ 30-28 1-6
13 +3 @ miami L 25-27 -3 vs pats L 23-30 1-7 1*
+3.5 @ G.B. L 21-22 -5.5 vs wash L $ 27-26 1-8 1*
14 -2.5 vs cleve L 24-26 +1 vs cards W 29-18 2-8 1*
15 +1 @ miny L 19-21 -7 vs chi L 13-37 2-9 2*
+3 @balty L 14-16 +10 @cincy L 7-31 2-10 2*
+3 @det L 29-31 +3 vs nyg lon. L 10-17 2-11 2*
-6 vs SF L 21-22 +7 vs cards L 6-44 2-12 funny thing the 49ers loss they got buried as 15.5 dog at seat tnf 3-24 then thier home tnf aagin Lost GAME ---me thinks some times vegas and books just
don't figure in emotinal LOSSES
nothing in 2017 TOTAL 19--123 87% 34*
SO LETS SEE AT $1000 PER GAME WIN $123,000.00 lose -20,900 $102,100.00 net +++9,281.81 PER YEAR OK
SO YOU N 3 BUDDIES DO THIS AT LOCAL SPORTS BOOK your GANG won $37,127.24 FOR THE YEAR AND we got mote teams to do

DOLPHINS
07 (1-15 yr.) +3 @ wash L 13-16 +3.5 vs C Boys L 20-37 0-1

+3 @ JETS L 29-31 -3.5 vs OAK L 17-35 0-2 1*
+15.5 @ Steel MNF (game delayed thunder storm) L 0-3 -2 home VS JETS L 13-40 0-3 2*
08 +3 @hou. L 28-29 -3 vs balty L 13-27 0-4 3*
09 +3 vs indy mnf L 24-27 +5.5 @ san d. L 13-25 0-5 3*
+5 @ tenn L 25-27 -1.5 vs hou. L 20-27 0-6 4*
10 +3 vs steel L 22-23 @cincy +1 W 22-14 1-6 4*
-5.5 vs bills L 15-17 -3.5 vs det. L 27-34 1-7 5*
11 -2 @ cleve L 16-17 +6.5 @ san d L 16-26 1-8 5*
+7@ c boys L 19-20 (turkey day) -3 vs oak W 34-14 2-8 5*
+7 @ PATS L 25-27 -2.5 vs JETS L$ 19-17 2-9 5*
12 -2.5 @ indy L 21-23 -7 vs tenn L 3-37 2-10 6*
13 -3 vs balty L 24-26 -5.5 vs bills rested L 21-23 2-11 7*
+6 @ Pats L 17-27 2-12 7*
-2.5 @ BUCS L 19-22 +3 VS san D. W 20-16 3-12 7*
14 +6.5 @ denv. L 37-39 -6.5 @ jets mnf L $ 16-13 3-13 7*
15 -5 @ colts L 21-23 -1 vs bills L 14-41 3-14 8*
16 +10.5@ seat L 10-12 +6 @ pats L 24-31 3-15 8*
17 nne adam case HC last year

TOTAL 22---138 86.25% 42*

VIKINGS
07 +3 @ KC L 10-13 that was 2nd game in row as 3 pt dog they lost by 3 +1.5 vs Packers L16-23 0-1
10 +3 @ Pack L 26--28 +5 @ pats L 18-28 0-2
11 +3.5 vs det L 24-26 -3 @ KC L 17-22( 4 str8 losses to start season) 0-3 1*
13 +6 @ chi. L 30-31 -6.5 vs cleve L 27-31 0-4 2*
+6 @ pack tied 26-26 -3.5 vs chi L$ 23-20 0-5 2*
14 +6.5 @ bills L 16-17 +1 @ bucs W 19-13 1--5 2*
+8 @ DET L 14-16 +4.5 @ Miami W$ 35-37 2-5 2*
-7 vs CHI. L$ 13-9 2-6 2*
+10 @ cards L 20-23 -4 vs chi W 38-17 3-6 2*

2016 start out 5-0 s/u and ats then WTF 0-4 str8 up and ats ???


TOTAL 25--144 44* 85%

PATRIOTS (doubt we get many games )
09 +2.5 @ indy L34-35 -11 vs jets W 31-14
-5.5 @miami L 21--22 -12.5 vs car. L$ 20--10 1-1
2012 -13.5 vs crds L 18-20 +1.5 @ W$ 30-31 2-1
-4 @ bills W 52-28 3-1

Cant use only 4 games 11 teams left

TOTAL 25--144 44* 85%lets ee how much cash we won
WIN $144,000.00 LOSE - 27,500 + NET $116,500.00 $10,590.90 per yer


ok wait have to remove teams with few results

CARDINALS

2013 +3.5 @GB L 21-22 home -5.5 vs WASH L$ 27-24 0-1

2016 -2.5 L 6-6 Tie +3 @ Panther L 20-30 0-2

Falcons
2009 +7 L 33-34 @ NYG -12 HOME L $ vs T B 20-17 0-1
2011 +1 L @ T B 15-16 -6 @ Seat. L $ 30-28 0-2
2015 +1.5 @ T B L 22-23 +9 @ Panthers L 0-38 0-3
2016 +7 @ seat L 25-26 home -5 vs Chargers L 30-33 0-4 1* total so far 0-6 1*

ok thats 6 losses removed makes us 25-138 84.66%

PANTHERS
2010 +12.5 @ saints L 15-16 -3 home vs bears L 6-23 0-1 1*
2012 +7 @ ATL L 28-30 -1.5 home vs Seat L 12-16 0-2 2*
14 +7 @ cincy Tied 37-37 +6.5 @ pack L 17-38 0-3 2--*
2016 -3 vs chiefs L 19-20 -3.5 @ saints L $ 23-20 0-4 2*

remove 4 more losses 25-134 and 3 s/u makes that 41 s/u *

25--134 84% 41* WIN $134,000 LOSE - 27,500 $106,500.00 NET = $9681.81 PER year

SAINTS
08 +5.5 @ denv L 32-34 - 4 vs SF W 31-17 1-0
10 -3 vs atl L 25-27 -12.5 vs car. L$ 16-14 1--1
12 +7.5 @ Pack L 27-28 -3.5 vs SAN D W 31-24 2--1 (note this was after 0-4 start) JOE VITT in for seasn peyton
14 -3 @atl L 35-37 -5 @ cleve L 24-26 2-2 1*
+2 @det. L 23-24 -2 vs gb W 44-23 3--2 1*
16 -3 vs oak L 34-35 +2.5 @ NYG L 13 16 3-3 1*
-3 vs denv L23 25 +3.5 @ car TNF W $ 20-23 4--3 1*
17 +2.5 @ ATL L 17-20 - 16.5 vs jets L$ 31-19 4-4 1*

TOTAL 29--138 42* 82.6%

GIANTS
09 -5.5 vs san d. L 20-21 -7 vs atl rested L$ 34-31 0-1

ok not enough results dont use
TOTAL 29--138 42* 82.6%

JETS
07 +8.5 @ Tenn L 7-10 -5 vs KC L$ 13--10 0-1
08 -3 @ oak L 14-16 -14 vs kc L$28-24 0-2
09 -3@miami L 28-31 -9.5 vs bills L 13-16 0-3 1*
-6 @ OAK W 38-0 ??? 1--3 1*
-6.5 rested vs jaxL 22-24 +11@ PATS L 14-31 1-4 1*
11 -6 @ denv. L 14-17 -9 vs bills L$ 28-24 1-5 1*
12 +11 @ pats L 26-29 -1 vs miami L 9-30 1--6 2*
-1@ ten L 12-14 -3 vs san D. L 17-27 1-7 3*
14 +9.5 @ pats L 25-27 tnf -3 vs bills L 23--34 1-8 3*
+9.5 vs PATS L 16-17 +7 @ miami W 37-24 2--8 3*
16 +1 vs cincy L 22-23 +1.5 @ Bills W 37-31 3-8 3* and then L 4 str8 games as DOGS too NO COVERS
+4 @ Miami L 24-27 +1 vs los angels L 6-9 3--9 3*
+9 rested vs Pats L 19-22 -1 mnf vs colts L 10--41? 3-10 4*
17 -1.5 @ bucs L 12-15 +5 vs car rested L 27--35 3--11 4*
TOTAL 32 --149 46* 82.4%

WIN $149,000.00 LOSE - 35,200 $113,800.00 NET $10,345.15 per year

[sunshine11]

Who do you like next week?

[stake1]

[Stallion]

Can someone summarize this? I am getting if a team loses by 1,2 or 3 you bet against them ATS there next game??

[OldBill]

Can someone summarize this? I am getting if a team loses by 1,2 or 3 you bet against them ATS there next game??

Stallion i used the 2 point losses also because there wasnt enough 1 point losses and when huge DD dog loses by 3 or less they fail next game too

if i used only a 1 point loss we wouldnt have enough results

it's 11 years i used from 2007 - 2017 when i get new playbook i will use from 2010 - 2021

[dark star]

Old Bill can you try talking some sense into BigBill?

[OldBill]

RAIDERS
07 +10 L 21-23 @ denv -3 VS Cleve L$ 26-24 0-1
08 +10 @ Bills L 23-24 +8 vs san D L 18-28 0-2
+10 @ miami L 15-17 +9 @ denv W 31-10 (this was after 4 str8 losses) and they blew up next 3 games s/u and ats 1--2
HC Kiffin fired after 4 games too!
2010 +5.5 L @ cards 23--24 +3.5 vs hou. L 24-31 1--3
2011 +3 @ det. L 27-28 -3.5 @ chiefs L $ 16-13 1--4
HC Hue Jackson 1 and done
2012 +10 @ ATL. L 21-23 -6 vs Jags L$ 26--23 1--5
+3 vs cleve L 18--20 +10 vs denv. TNF L 13--26 1--6
2015 -3 @ chi. L 20-22 +5.5 vs denv L 10-16 1--7 ( i lost also ) the game @ Bears i didnt know they lost final secs fg by Bears this is strongest fade in nfl games like team was winning and the opp. goes 60 yrads and poof they lose known as Heart breaker loss
+6 @ Pitts L 35-38 -3 vs Vikes L 14-30 1-8 1*
TOTAL 33-157 83% 47*
EAGLES
07 -3 @ GB L 13-16 (was at end of game) -7 MNF vs Wash L 12-20 (of course home opners Eagles bad news) 0-1 1*
+25 @ Pats L 28-31 (last sec loss) -3 vs Seat L 24-28 0--2 2* so what does vegas do next game vs NYG eagles - 3 POOF L 13-16
08 -3 @ chi. L 21-24 -6.5 vs wash L 17-23 0--3 3*
-9 vs Cincy TIed 13--13 +2 @ balty L 7-36 0--4 3*
2010 +1.5 vs C boys L 13-14 -1.5 vs pack L 16-21 0--5 4*
11 -10 vs S F L 23-24 then gift -3 @ Bills L 24-31 0--6 5*
12 +4 @ pitts L 15-16 -3.5 vs det. L 23-26 0--7 6*
-3.5 vs DET L 23--26 -3 vs atl L 17--20 RESTED 0--8 7*
4-12 year andy reid left
2013 -7.5 vs SAN D (home opener) L 31-33 -3 TNF vs KC L 16-26 0--9 8*
way to go Chip kelly LOL
2015 -3 @ atl mnf L 24-26 -6.5 vs c boys (home opener) L 10-20 0--10 9* OMG 100% and 9 s/u
-5.5 vs Miami L 19-20 -7 vs BUCS L 17-45 0--11 10*
Chip Kelly fired after 15 games
2016 -3 @ DET L 23-24 -3 @ Wash L 20--27 0--12 11*
+5 @ Balty L 26-27 -2 vs NYG W 24-19 yeahhhhhhhhh 1--12 11*
2017 WE WIN it all no games heart breaker losses

TOTAL 34--169 83% 58*
ok money wise at $1000 per game W $169,000.00 Lose - (37,400) $131,600.00 NET divide by 11 years ++$11,963.63 PER year

also dont forget my other system teams after s/u dog wins then flip roles being favored

[OldBill]

and now the final count

STEELERS
07 -9 @ Jets L 16-19 -15 vs Miami L $ 3-0 0--1
08 -3 vs indy L 21 --24 -4.5 vs San D L 11-10 ( i rember this game steelers TD was no good ) 0--2

09 -3 @ CHI L 14-17 -3.5 @ Cincy L 20-23 0--3 1*
-5.5 vs san d W 38-28 ---1-3 1*
+7.5 @ balty L 18-20 -15 vs Raiders L 24-27 1--4 2*
-10 @ Cleve L 6-13 ---------- 1-5 3* these losses were in L streak 5 in a row
11 -3 vs balty L 20--23 -3 @ Cincy W 24-17 2--5 3*

12 -3.5 @ oak L 31--34 -4 vs Philly (rested) L$ 16-14 2-6 3*
+3 @ balty L 10--13 - 1 @ Cleve L 14-20 2--7 4*
-2.5@ C boys L 24--27 -3 vs Cincy L 10-14 2--8 5*

13 -3.5 @ Raiders L 19-21 +5.5 @ Pats L 31 -55 2--9 5*
+3 @ balty L 20--22 TNF---3 vs miami L 28--34 2--10 6*
Season over at start 0-4 S/u and ATS
17 +2.5 vs Pats L 25-27 -9.5 @ HOU W 34-6 3--10 6*

TOTAL 37 --179 82.8 % 64*

49ERS
07 +3.5 vs baty L 7-9 ( quick give me mortage bet next game ) +9.5 @ GIANTS crushed like ripe tomato 15--33 and off bye 0-1
+3.5 @ atl. L 17-20 +9.5 @ Seat L MNF 0--24 0-2 ( these loses were in midst of 8 str8 looses and went 1-7 ats
08 none HC Nolan FIRED after 7 games
09 +7 @ Minny L 24--27 -9 vs rams W 35-0 1--2
+13 @ indy L 15--18 -4.5 vs Tenn L 27-34 1--3 1*

10 +7 @ ATL L 14--16 ( mortage time next game) -3 vs Philly L 21-27 1--4 2*
hc mike singeltary gone after 2 years 8-8 6-10 0-5 start in 2010

2012 NONE but -5 vs Balty crused at 1/2 time lost s/u 31-34 reason TIED game vs Rams 24-24
13 -6 vs car L 9-10 +3.5 @ Saints L 19-24 1--5 2*

14 -2 vs san D L 36-38 -5.5 vs cards L$ 20--17 1-6 2*(end of yr went 2-4 s/u and shreded wallets 0-6 ATS 3 X as fav )

16 +14 @ cards L 20-23 +10.5 vs Pats L 17-30 (chip kelly 1 n done wins 1st game 28-0 then wtf lost 13 str8 and ats 1-12 ) 1--7 2*

17 KYLE shanihan starts 0-9 s/u 1st 9 games
+7 @ cards L 16-18 +1 @ INDY L 23-26 1-8 2*
+10 @ Wash L 24-26 +6 vs C boys Crushed like ripe tomato 10--40 1--9 2* end of season tho 5-0 s/u 4--0 1 ats

TOTAL 38--188 66* 83.2%

SEAHAWKS
07 -3 @ cards L 21-23 -3.5 vs Cincy L$ 24-21 0--1
+1 @ cleve L 30-33 -9.5 vs SF W 24-0 MNF 1-1
08 +7.5 @ miami L 19-21 +3 vs cards L 20-26 ( these were in midst of 6 game losing streak ) 1-2
+3 vs wash L 17-20 +12 @ C boys crushed 9-24 1-3
+7.5 vs Pats L 21-24 -3.5 @ rams L$ 23-20 1--4
HC holmgreen GONE

09 NONE HC Jim Mora jr. 1 n done

10 NONE Pettey took over Made Playoffs

11 +3 @ cleve L 3-6 +1.5 vs cincy L 12-34 1--5
+2.5 vs SF L 17-19 +2 @ cards L 20-23 1--6
13 +3 @ SF L 17-19 -8.5 @ Giants W 23-0
SB W 43-8 LEGION OF BOOM

14 -7 @ Rams L 26-28 -6 @ Car L$ 13-9 1-7
SB Loser 24-28 vs Pats
15 -3.5 @ rams L 31-34 +3 @ pack L 17-27 1--8
+3 @ cincy L 24-27 -7 vs car. L 23-27 1--9 1*

16 +2.5 @ cards t 6-6 -1 @ saints L 20-25 1--10 2*
-8 vs cards L 31-34 tnf ---10.5 @ SF L $ 25-23 1--11 2*
17 - 7 vs wash L 14-17 -7 @ Cards L $ 22-16 1--12 2*
TOTAL 39 --200 68* 83.6% ( i cant wait till sept)
3 teams left

BUCCANEERS

07-6 @ SF L 19-21 +3 vs Car L 23--31 0-1
08 +5.5 @ atl L 11-13 -4.5 san d L 24-41 0--2 1*

09 NEW HC Raheem Morris) +8.5 @ Wash L 13-16 +15.5 @ philly L 14-33 0-3 1*
+10 @ Mia. L 23-25 (mortage time) +10.5 vs Saints Crushed like worse than ripe tomatos 7-48 0--4 1*
+12 @ ATL. L 17-20 ---+3.5 @ car L 6-16 3-13 YR

2012 new hc schiano -1 vs atl L 23-24 +7.5 @ denv L 0--5 1*
-7 vs Philly L 21-23 +3.5 at Saints destroyed 41-0 went 1-5 su end of year and ATS 0--6 1*
13 0-8 start +3 vs saints L 14-16 +7 @ pats BBQ 3-23 0--7 1*

2014 LOVIE smith new HC
-4 vs Rams L 17-19 +7 TNF @ ATL destroyed 14-56 0-8 1*
+6 vs Cincy L 13-14 +10 @ lions destroyed 17-34 0-9 1*
+3.5 @ Car. L 17-19 +11.5 vs Pack forgettabouttit L 3-20 0--10 1*

15 +3 @ Wash L 30-31 +8 @ ATL. W 23-20 1--10 1*


16 new HC Dirk Koetter
+7 @ C boys L 23-26 +3 tnf VS saints L 24-31 1-11 1*

17 + 1 VS Pats TNF L 17-19 -2 @ Cards L 33-38 1--12 2*
+10 @ car L 19-22 +8 vs SAINTS W 31-24 fnal game of year 2-12 2*

TOTAL 41--212 70* 83.7%

TITANS
09 +6.5 L 12-13 -7 vs HOU L 31-34 0-1 1*
10 -7 @ wash L 17-19 +5 @ HOU. L 0-20 0--2 1*
+3 vs indy L 28-30 6th loss in row -1.5 vs HOU W 31-17 1--2 1* and jeff fischer gone

11 new HC Munchak
+3 vs saints L 19-22 -6.5 @ INDY L 13-27 1-3 2*

12 -3.5 vs indy L 16-19 +5 vs CHI destroyed 20--51 ??? 1--4 2*
-3 @ Jax L 21-24 +7 vs HOU L 10-24 1--5 2*

13 -11 vs JAX L 27-29 +2.5 tnf vs indy L 27-30 1-6 2*
+3 vs cards L 35-37 -5 @ Jax L$ 20-16 1--7 2*

14 NEW HC Wisenhunt +1 @ Cleve L 28-29 -4 vs Jax L $ 16-14 1--8 2*
+7 MNF VS steel L 24-27 +11 @ Philly L 24-43 1--9 2*
+3 vs Jets L 13-16 +4 tnf @ Jax L 13-21 1-10 2*

15 +3 vs indy L 33-35 pckem vs Bills L 13-14 1-11 2*
vegas says 1 more time fav -3 vs MIA. L 10-38 1--12 3*
HC fired after 8 games

16 NEW HC Mike Mularkey

TOTAL 42--224 73* 84.2%

WASHINGTON
2007
+3 @ Pack L 14-17 -8 vs cards L$ 21-19 0--1
+11 @ C boys L 25-28 +3 @ BUCS L 13-19 0--2

08 new hc jim zorn
-13 vs Rams L 17-19 -7.5 vs clev. L $ 14-11 0--3
+1.5 vs C boys L 12-14 -4 @ seat L$ 20-17 0--4
09 +5.5@ CAR. L 17-20 -6.5 vs KC L 6-14 0--5 1*
+11 @ C boys L 6-7 +10 @ PHILY W$ 24--27 1--5 1*
2010 NEW HC Mike Shanahan
+3.5 vs HOU L 28-30 -5 @ rams L 16-30 1--6 2*
11 +3 MNF @ C boys L 16-18 -3 @ rams W 17-10 2-6 2*
( then rested +3 vs philly L 13-20 ??? and lost 5 more s/u )

12 -3.5 @ rams L 28-31 -3 vs Cincy L 31-38 2-7 3*
+6.5 @ NYG L 25-27 +4.5 @ Steel L 12-27 2--8 3*

13 +5.5 @ ATL L 26-27 +3 vs C boys L 23-24 3--8 3*
+3.5 @ NYG L 6-20 3--9 3*

14 NEW HCJay gruden +4 @ Philly L 34-37 --tnf - 3 vs NYG 14-45 3--10 4*
-1 @ Minny L 27-29 -6.5 vs Bucs L 7-27 off bye week 3--11 5*
+9 @ SF L 14-17 +7.5@indy 27--49 3--12 5*

16 -1 @ DET L 18 -20 -1 vs Cincy L 27-27 (london) 3-13 6*
+5.5 @ Boys L 28-31 +2.5 @ Cards L 23-31 3--14 6*

17 +8 @ Saints L 31-34 -7 vs NYG W 20-10 4-14 6*

TOTAL 46 ---238 79* 84% ok lets see how we do $$$ W $238.000 L(-50,600) $187,400.00 net +++$17,036.36 per year HEY your NEW BENZ looks great in your driveway

[CJ]

Why does this feel like it was written in crayon?

[KVB]

Ok Billy I'll bite. May I call you Billy?

I see you've gone team by team here in the thread but did you follow your guidelines? Let's break this down...

I always did fade teams after a real 1 point loss like missed FG or other team beat them with a FG...


...NOT becuse a player took helmet off or other rule broken...

Did you make the distinctions here?

Did there have to be a FG late? Are we sure none of your games involved, say, a PI in the endzone late to set up the game winning FG?

Obviously, going forward, we can make a note of this. But depending on your database and detail, this can be difficult track historically.

What happened here in the the thread, Mr. Bill? May I call you Mr. Bill? Did you take all 1 point losses or did you weed out the "bullshit" losses?

The very second result you put up there, William, is a tie, not a 1 point loss. May I call you William?

What about the Ravens, Willie? May I call you Willie? You say they lost to the Eagles in 2012 by 1 point. This is true. But then you say they lost to the Patriots 31-30.

But in fact, they beat the Patriots 31-30.

Let's stick with the Ravens, Will, may I call you Will? In 2014 they lost by, you guessed it, 1 point to the Chargers. But then they beat the Dolphins 28-13 the next week.

I don't see that one in the records. Maybe someone took their helmet off at the end of the Charger game, I don't know.

All in all, Bildo, I'm just not so sure about your summaries here, and we haven't even scratched the surface. After all, you have scores reversed, and wins as losses. Each instance of error does seem to favor your system.

May I call you Bildo?

[stevenash]

May I call you Bildo?

Be nice.

[KVB]

Be nice.

[OldBill]

@ KVB it has to be like heart breaker loss and most are as DOGS losing some lose as favs tho all results i have in print in marc lawrence playbook maybe i miseed the ones you cliam but those 2 games or 3 will not change the % 84

i also removed like 4 teams because of not enough results i remember lots of these games one MNF ravens huge dog +15 said we can beat this pitts team who had back up quater back in BIG BEN was hurt THEY LOST by 1 point exactly i mortage my house next against ravens they were favored at home by 3 vs the cowboys got decimated 24-10 bet on credit with local $500 way more than normal

was so happy on thursday pay day

[OldBill]

also KVB if it was a PI or other infraction i cant remember unless actually seeing it happen

i seen teams that were dogs losing badly by 15 then score td and fg to lose by 3 points which is stupid but hey they want to win too.

next game kaflump blown out no matter who or where they play

a lotta teams stink traveling like Jaguars when they play like in kc or farther west they always come up empty lat year had to play at Rams huge dog they were i laughed rams crushed them

but my eagles own the jets and steelers ... pitts cannot win in philly from 1965 they alwys come up empty ........ but eagles after beting steelers next game no matter who they play KABOOM LOST

miami home vs patriots winniner every year if it was 2nd rematch s/u too as a dog

lots of teams fail in miami because it's party city sat night in south beach only not outside in the low life area

one time my eagles (who stink vs afc teams besides jets n steelers) won last game vs C boys flew down to miami and was favored by 6

miami lost last game ............. OMG i said no way took miami for $1000 and watched them destroy my poor birds 35 - 10


i have another sytem too thats causing huge win % but it's only certain teams ex: TEam wins as a DOG of any 1 point - whatever next game flip roles being favored POOF either not cover spread or lose s/u

[KVB]

I see. There's a lot to unpack for sure. It's like one of those jumbo boxes of crayons that has a builti in crayon sharpener in the bottom of it.

But, Bill, we still have errors to address.

Things like this below is turning a system loss into a system win. That's a 2 bet turnaround. That can make a big difference over the long haul...

...The very second result you put up there, William, is a tie, not a 1 point loss...

...What about the Ravens... ...You say they lost to the Eagles in 2012 by 1 point. This is true. But then you say they lost to the Patriots 31-30.

But in fact, they beat the Patriots 31-30.

I think we need an audit here.

Let's get this sorted out and see if we got some meat in your sandwich.

[OldBill]

ok bumpy it's an emotional heart breaker to NFL teams this applies to to tonites game colts lost by 1 point as a 6.5 dog 17-16

steelers are playing better with JJ WATT back plus other players back off injury

TOTAL 46 ---238 79* 84% ok lets see how we do $$$ W $238.000 L(-50,600) $187,400.00 net +++$17,036.36 per year HEY your NEW BENZ looks * means they lost s/u as a fav

Colts got shut out @ Jags then tied game with texans

[Jowframs]

Wow
Get a Job

[texhooper]

The Arizona Cardinals own JJ Watt apparently making a guest appearance for the Steelers tonight. Lots of inside info here

[OldBill]

this year Brwons had heartbreaker loss at home 4th quarter they where winning as 1.5 dog final seconds the Chargers win with a FG cleve lost 28-30 next game home for some reason browns were a chalk -2.5 vs the winning patriots and got smoked bad losing 38-15

Denver after losing by 1 point at Seattle 16-17 as -6 fav home - 11 vs the horrid texans blew everyones wallets apart winning by 6 points

16-10 houston was winning 10-6 after 3 quarters

[allabout the $$$]

so the ravens and cards are go against next week