Tease thru the 3 and 7 in NFL went 7-0 tonight

HedgeHog · 10-21-07, 07:40 PM

I had many of the same plays, teased with other key numbers in other games. Of my 6 teasers (2-teamers) at betabc (where ties win), I'm 4-0 with 2 still alive, having won the first half of each. My fillers are Den +10 tonite in one and JV +10 tomorrow (again ties win). Now someone will post that all teasers are sucker bets, but I think an edge can be found in the NFL. If nothing else, they're great entertainment at minimal risk--if played smartly.

curious · 10-21-07, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

I had many of the same plays, teased with other key numbers in other games. Of my 6 teasers (2-teamers) at betabc (where ties win), I'm 4-0 with 2 still alive, having won the first half of each. My fillers are Den +10 tonite in one and JV +10 tomorrow (again ties win). Now someone will post that all teasers are sucker bets, but I think an edge can be found in the NFL. If nothing else, they're great entertainment at minimal risk--if played smartly.

I really hate these "all xxx bets are sucker bets" he man posts.

What do you consider are other key numbers?

HedgeHog · 10-22-07, 07:44 AM

Curious:

3,7,10,14 &17 are the key NFL numbers I try to secure. If you like teasers, you'll love ABCislands.com (B rated)--where ties win. For example, you had TB +9.5 where I got TB +10 (actually 10.5 because ties win). And TB was down by 10 until their last minute field goal cut the deficit to 7. Could've been a bad beat if you had just 9.5 and the field goal misses!

Dark Horse · 10-22-07, 08:15 AM

Sure you can backtest this. Covers.com has the spreads for past seasons. The 3 is a lot more important than the 7.

I play teasers for NFL spreads 7.5 to 9.5. Start out with 1 unit, and add half of winnings to next teaser. Not too hard to build up a string of winners. Play open teaser if only one qualifying game. When you hit a loss start again at 1 unit. I would wait until week 5. Of course, teasing a game allows you opportunities for middles, which is where things get interesting.

Ganchrow · 10-22-07, 08:39 AM

It's no secret that so-called "wise-guy" or "Wong" teasers can be quite profitable, especially at +100 and +180 (for 2- and 3-teamers, respectively). Generally speaking, a wise-guy teaser is a 6-point teaser passing through both the 3 and the 7 (so a tease of a 1½ to 2&frac12 point dog or a 7½ - 8½ point fave). Different people will have their own takes on the strategy (many of which seem to reek of data mining), but that's the general idea. Stanford Wong devoted chapter 16 of Sharp Sports Betting to this very topic. The book's a must-have for anybody wanting to get started with quantitative sports betting.

There's no real trick to back testing this. Just as Dark Horse suggested you can quickly get started using covers.com data.

The following chart shows breakeven probabilities for a teaser of given size at given odds:

<style> .ganch { font-size: 11px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; }</style> <table border=0 cellpadding=2 cellspacing=1> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> Teams </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Odds </td> <td align=left class=ganch> Breakeven Prob.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 2 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +100 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 70.711%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 2 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> -110 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 72.375%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 2 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> -120 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 73.855%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 2 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> -130 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 75.181%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 3 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +180 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 70.949%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 3 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +160 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 72.724%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 3 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +150 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 73.681%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 4 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +300 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 70.711%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 5 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +450 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 71.109%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 6 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +700 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 70.711%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td align=left class=ganch> 7 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> +1,000 </td> <td align=right class=ganch> 70.995%
</td> </tr> </table>

So in other words, for a 2-team teaser at -110, you'd need each leg to win (on average) 72.375% of the time in order to break even on the teaser.

HedgeHog · 10-22-07, 10:47 AM

Ganch:

My favorite NFL teasers involve 2 team 7-pointers (13/10) on Dogs +3 and Favs-10. So a +3 becomes +10, and -10 becomes -3. Since ties win at ABC, three key numbers are covered (3,7 & 10). Despite laying -130 on these teasers, I believe I've squeaked out a profit by concentrating on these key numbers . Any opinion on this.

Ganchrow · 10-22-07, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

Ganch:

My favorite NFL teasers involve 2 team 7-pointers (13/10) on Dogs +3 and Favs-10. So a +3 becomes +10, and -10 becomes -3. Since ties win at ABC, three key numbers are covered (3,7 & 10). Despite laying -130 on these teasers, I believe I've squeaked out a profit by concentrating on these key numbers . Any opinion on this.

Using covers.com data from the 1990-2006 NFL seasons:

Dog spreads of +3 points covered at a rate of 74.28% (standard error = 1.66%) when teased by 7½ points.

Fave spreads of -10 points covered at a rate of 71.03% (standard error = 4.43%) when teased by 7½ points.

Given that the breakeven win probability on a 2-team -130 teaser is 75.181%, the covers.com data provides insufficient evidence to conclude that either teaser is +EV.

magnavox · 10-22-07, 01:56 PM

Worth to notice, that Pinnacle had many different numbers to avoid being beaten on this.

Ganchrow · 10-23-07, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by magnavox

Worth to notice, that Pinnacle had many different numbers to avoid being beaten on this.

5 Dimes is notorious for this as well. You'll that 5 Dimes frequently makes a stand defending the 9 by adjusting odds, rather than give up the point and allow the wise-guy teaser.

On Sunday's upcoming Oakland @ Tennessee game, for example, 5 Dimes is sitting on ±9 -125/+105, while hanging an "alternate" line of ±7½ -110, and with the notable exception of Pinnacle (possibly playing a similar game) the rest of the market is almost uniformly at 7½.