[ABEHONEST]

Do I have any takers? Give me 2/1 and we're on.
No losses for the rest of the regular season.

There are 15 games left before the playoffs start.

* And yes, they win ugly, usually.

[Headsterx]

Do I have any takers? Give me 2/1 and we're on.
No losses for the rest of the regular season.

There are 15 games left before the playoffs start.

* And yes, they win ugly, usually.

Whoa! I'll do it as I'll be at the last regular game at St. Mary's in the deep wooded East Bay area. Damn, this works out as my friend got tixs and it'll be a party weekend.

I can put up to 1k pts to win 500 pts. Just let me know the wager amount.

[jjgold]

They are not good

Too slow and can only beat lose
Level teams

[ABEHONEST]

Whoa! I'll do it as I'll be at the last regular game at St. Mary's in the deep wooded East Bay area. Damn, this works out as my friend got tixs and it'll be a party weekend.

I can put up to 1k pts to win 500 pts. Just let me know the wager amount.

Damn! I didn't know I was dealing with a millionaire?
Gezz--Okay, 2-Major rules.
1. Will you pay off when you lose?
2. This one is of utmost importance and you must abide by it. They'll be no dying on me or bets are off?

* Let me look at my points and, "I'll be back"

Okay: 225 is enough for me. Get back and okay this figure?

[stevenash]

Until they play Baylor in the title game...

(Oh, wait a minute)

[ABEHONEST]

Until they play Baylor in the title game...

(Oh, wait a minute)

I only hope so.

[ABEHONEST]

They are not good

Too slow and can only beat lose
Level teams

JJ, you could be right? But the supporting cast players are looking real solid, so, I see where the 2-big-guns need to get their rears in gear.
I believe they will, because I don't think I've seen 1 game where they both mesh together naturally?
That is the key, I firmly believe.
If they don't, then maybe we can win with their strong defense?

[Headsterx]

Damn! I didn't know I was dealing with a millionaire?
Gezz--Okay, 2-Major rules.
1. Will you pay off when you lose?
2. This one is of utmost importance and you must abide by it. They'll be no dying on me or bets are off?

* Let me look at my points and, "I'll be back"

Okay: 225 is enough for me. Get back and okay this figure?

Yeah, I agree w/ both terms & amount, it's a deal!

[ABEHONEST]

Yeah, I agree w/ both terms & amount, it's a deal!

[ABEHONEST]

Yeah, I agree w/ both terms & amount, it's a deal!

One thing: They are scheduled for something like 15 games, so if a hurricane/earthquate, hits, or whatever, games could be canceled or rescheduled at a later date?
Agree?
Understand?

[Headsterx]

One thing: They are scheduled for something like 15 games, so if a hurricane/earthquate, hits, or whatever, games could be canceled or rescheduled at a later date?
Agree?
Understand?

Yes, I considered that and agree.

[ABEHONEST]

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Abe is the same guy that said Jalen Suggs was better than Jordan. That is all

[ABEHONEST]

Abe is the same guy that said Jalen Suggs was better than Jordan. That is all

Well, Ghenghis, you missed a super opporunity to bet and win a ton of betting points, if true?
Well I still have my points and you didn't bet?
Oh, I know why you didn't, I never said anything like that. I will admit, I have stated some really dumb things in the past, but nothing as dumb as that.

I will make this statememnt: When in primetime, Bird And Jordan are still the best two all-round players the NBA has even seen.
Oscar is a razer edge beneath those two.

My state has two of those 3. Indiana, where basketball was born and raised.

[jjgold]

Thugs now hurt

Before injury average

[ABEHONEST]

Thugs now hurt

Before injury average

Gold one, I don't understand what you mean?

[jjgold]

Zags now in easy part of schedule

Wait until tourney

[ABEHONEST]

I C. Do you talk Arrapaho. Part Injun?

[Bcatswin]

JJ quit ignoring me.

[Headsterx]

Damn, are they ever going to play a regular game... I knew a lost would be hard to come by but I might not even get a chance...

[ABEHONEST]

Damn, are they ever going to play a regular game... I knew a lost would be hard to come by but I might not even get a chance...

I thought about that too, Headman.

[ABEHONEST]

But sooner or later, they will have road games with your favorite team and the other toughie, San Francisco. Can Gonzaga ever put a superior basketball game together where the 2 Big's both trade a pass or 2, or 1 or 2 assists to each other?

That seems to be missing, and the other: Will Timee "ever-again," look like a POY? A 16.7 scorer.
I'd bet against it.

[KVB]

Cruising in confernce play.

ABE, let's get this down to a more palatable betting experience.

Let's go game by game here, let's not worry about whether or not they win every game, the conference play going forward seems easy, so let's worry about whether or not they will cover their spreads each game.

They've been about 50-50 last 10 games or so.

I think they break out one way or another.

I think we see profit by potentially betting each game the same way going forward, if we can determine which way to go.

Do they win and cover, or win and not cover the rest of the regular season? I think whichever it is, I think we can see an 8-5 record over the next 13 games.

Of course, Kung Flu could really fuk that up.

[texhooper]

I would guess they’ll cover to go 8-5. Despite being an improved conference they’re still better than everyone and should be able to round into form

[texhooper]

For instance I can see them hitting a stretch against Pacific, Loyola, Pepperdine, Portland where they run off four covers in a row.

And against the good teams they’ll have more favorable lines then ever before probably, specifically against BYU, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s.

If I’m right about my stretch run of 4, they need to go 4-5 elsewhere and will probably have three-ish games where they can win by single digits and cover.

So Zags going 8-5 ATS rest of the way is my guess

[KVB]

The good thing here Tex is that I can't really come back and say that they will be overvalued and the dog will be the better bet.

By already not covering so many spreads, the market is keeping them in check.

In reality, the market was already over valuing them.

At least, if we are liking Gonza to cover, we aren't deliberately betting into the wrongside, at least not too deep.

[texhooper]

Right exactly. They’re gonna be at least somewhat undervalued but if you trust the analytics they’re still way better than their conference and very well-coached and just need to get some things figured out. Usually that happens against bum teams and they’ll be able to go forth into their stretch against the better teams in better form

[KVB]

Two things I hope to get into here. A more macro perspective to see if there are "trade winds" and then we have to of course get more specific.

We will look more closely at the competition.

In the end, it will matter what the line is, we all know that.

One worry I have, as I want to bet Gonzaga to cover, I like Tex's thoughts on it, is that if there is too much moneyline pressure on Gonza, then that will force the spread upward, at least it could.

We want Gonza, and we are willing to take a couple of losses as well, but we don't want to, like I said, deliberately bet into bad numbers.

I want to approach this as if we think Gonzaga will cover more than not, then from there we'll try to let the market talk us out of it. If the market talks us out, fine, but if it's just the books making moves to scare us off, then we'll respond accordingly.

[ABEHONEST]

Cruising in confernce play.

ABE, let's get this down to a more palatable betting experience.

Let's go game by game here, let's not worry about whether or not they win every game, the conference play going forward seems easy, so let's worry about whether or not they will cover their spreads each game.

They've been about 50-50 last 10 games or so.

I think they break out one way or another.

I think we see profit by potentially betting each game the same way going forward, if we can determine which way to go.

Do they win and cover, or win and not cover the rest of the regular season? I think whichever it is, I think we can see an 8-5 record over the next 13 games.

Of course, Kung Flu could really fuk that up.

If I wager on the Zig-Zags, it will have to only take them to cover at home. Away, do the opposite.
This #4 rating it probably right where they should be, and that's kinda scary for me, thinking about how I jumped on their Futures last April/May, with good odds and in several parlays.

Last year I had very similar-looking parlays and they also looked good too, till the very last game.
I really believe, my white-Wilt-The-Stilt, version, needs to pack on 20 or more lbs of muscle, and sooner than later?
Without that needed weight and muscle, I see one loss in the real, genuine playoffs, and that will be one too many.

* I have doubts you will lose much money with my betting suggestion above and you might even win a few bucks? Just be sure to grab all the extra 1/2 points you can. It's rough out there for gamblers like me?
The others, I have no idea?

[JacketFan81]

Two things I hope to get into here. A more macro perspective to see if there are "trade winds" and then we have to of course get more specific.

We will look more closely at the competition.

In the end, it will matter what the line is, we all know that.

One worry I have, as I want to bet Gonzaga to cover, I like Tex's thoughts on it, is that if there is too much moneyline pressure on Gonza, then that will force the spread upward, at least it could.

We want Gonza, and we are willing to take a couple of losses as well, but we don't want to, like I said, deliberately bet into bad numbers.

I want to approach this as if we think Gonzaga will cover more than not, then from there we'll try to let the market talk us out of it. If the market talks us out, fine, but if it's just the books making moves to scare us off, then we'll respond accordingly.

I would go the other way on their covers honestly. Too much hype behind that team for John Q Public.

[KVB]

Right exactly. They’re gonna be at least somewhat undervalued but if you trust the analytics they’re still way better than their conference and very well-coached and just need to get some things figured out. Usually that happens against bum teams and they’ll be able to go forth into their stretch against the better teams in better form

Love it, when I say macro above I was thinking conference as well. Just how far above and beyond are they, and whether or not the market knows.

These spreads can get so big that even a blowout might not cover. Teams like this get into that realm we've talked about in the think tank in the past. Baylor, Gonza, tough when the spreads are so big.

It's like the more you have team winning in a good forecast, the better your odds. That is, until, you get to extreme forecasts, showing big blowouts.

They go back to a more realistic 50 something % probability.

Those forecasts at the extreme are either always flawed, or some shady shit is goin down...lol.

[KVB]

If I wager on the Zig-Zags, it will have to only take them to cover at home. Away, do the opposite...

I would go the other way on their covers honestly. Too much hype behind that team for John Q Public.

I here you jacket, that's exactly what we're talking about here. Going to try to guage just how much that hype really makes it to the market. But in general you aren't wrong about that.

Abe, I think if the hype does come into play it happens more often in home games. The two posts I quoted above are interrelated for sure.

We'll have to see the lines and break it down. But in general, we might want to be looking at those road games for the covers. The home games might be too inflated.

[JacketFan81]

I here you jacket, that's exactly what we're talking about here. Going to try to guage just how much that hype really makes it to the market. But in general you aren't wrong about that.

Abe, I think if the hype does come into play it happens more often in home games. The two posts I quoted above are interrelated for sure.

We'll have to see the lines and break it down. But in general, we might want to be looking at those road games for the covers. The home games might be too inflated.

Gotcha, I must've misread the dialogue. Best of luck!

[ABEHONEST]

Is Timee injuried at all? Man, I do not remember 1 game where he moved his 6-10 ass, either quick enough or fast enough?
And then he flashes that cocky-butt jester we see on their website, or ESPN'S, I believe?
I'd like to slap that goofy nonsense right out of him.
Like to, but only if he would not slap back?

[texhooper]

Gotcha, I must've misread the dialogue. Best of luck!

Well I think what KVB and I are saying is the John Q Publics of the world will likely not be overvaluing them this year due to their losses and lackluster play at times. So basically what I’m saying is there’s likely an uptick coming for the team that might not be reflected in the market. May not happen but that’s where my thoughts are as of this writing