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Best Value Prop Bets For The 2020 NFL Draft 🏈
Best value prop bets for the 2020 NFL draft
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The 2020 NFL draft is still scheduled to take place from April 23-25, which gives us an opportunity to look at some betting futures for the incoming class. Our betting experts -- Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson, and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network -- offer their best prop bets as draft day closes in.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
QBs drafted in first round: Over 4 (-140)
Kezirian: This feels like a push, at worst. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa will all be drafted in the first round. This comes down to Jordan Love and Jacob Eason. In Todd McShay's latest mock draft, he had Love at No. 6 and ahead of Herbert. We also know that teams tend to fall in love with quarterbacks as draft day nears. Mel Kiper Jr. has Eason being chosen late in the first round, so I will roll the dice here and hope for five, but likely settle for a push.
Johnson: Burrow, Tagovailoa and Herbert are likely to all be drafted by pick No. 6 (Chargers) now that Philip Rivers will be under center in Indianapolis. There is growing buzz that Love could be picked in the top 10 as well, but at the very worst I don't see him sliding past the Patriots at pick No. 23 now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. That gives us the latter part of the first round to sneak Eason in (and a very outside shot at Jalen Hurts or Jake Fromm). This bet will push a good portion of the time, but the chances we see five quarterbacks taken compared to just three at this point is well worth the -140 price tag.
Youmans: Betting over four appears to be a free shot because at worst the wager should push. After Burrow and Tagovailoa, Herbert and Love are widely considered locks to go in the first round. Love's stock started soaring in late February at the scouting combine. All four could go in top 10. Eason, who started his college career at Georgia and finished at Washington, is a long shot to go late in the first round. The worst-case scenario seems to be a push, and you would make a bet like that every time.
Herbert drafted ahead of Love (-210)
Kezirian: I realize McShay has Love sixth overall and ahead of Herbert, but I will take my chances at -210. That price translates to a 68% implied chance, and I feel there is a much higher chance of Herbert going earlier. Even if a team prefers Love, I imagine they will trade down to optimize the situation. Herbert has everything teams want, and Love was shaky against what I believe were his three toughest defenses faced: LSU, San Diego State and Boise State.
QBs drafted in first five picks: Over 2.5 (+240)
Kezirian: I see a couple ways to win this bet. First, sitting second overall, the Washington Redskins seemingly have their QB in Dwayne Haskins and could trade down (especially after Washington traded for Kyle Allen on Monday). That opens the door for the Los Angeles Chargers to trade up. Even without a trade, the Detroit Lions could easily draft Matthew Stafford's successor with the third overall pick. I also believe the Miami Dolphins will take a QB at No. 5. I am quite confident Burrow and Tagovailoa will be selected in the top five, so I'm happy to grab +240 on the Chargers or Lions to make it a third (likely Herbert). Teams are just too enamored with the QB position to resist the temptation.
Who will be the No. 2 overall pick? Tagovailoa (+200)
At DraftKings
Youmans: Chase Young, a defensive end from Ohio State, is the -305 favorite at DraftKings. The Redskins drafted Haskins 15th overall last year and seem unlikely to take another quarterback, but it's not out of the question because new coach Ron Rivera isn't tied to Haskins. Rivera could opt to start fresh with Tagovailoa or trade out of the second spot, where another team might want him. The Chargers would be wise to make a bold move a trade up to No. 2 for Tua.
Who will be the first RB selected? D'Andre Swift (+115)
At DraftKings
Youmans: It's easy to like Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor, who is the second choice at DraftKings at +125. But most scouts tend to tout Georgia's Swift as the better back, and he's slotted higher in almost every mock draft you read. I project Swift to Miami late in the first round. Shop around because different prices are available on this prop, with Swift recently posted at +115.
Who will be the first O-lineman taken? Mekhi Becton (+300)
At DraftKings
Youmans: This is an especially strong draft class for offensive linemen, with at least five who can step in and start as rookies. Alabama's Jedrick Wills Jr. is the +160 favorite at DraftKings to be the first picked, but I'm not sure he should be. Look at Iowa's Tristan Wirfs (+200) or Louisville's Becton, a combine standout. Take your pick from Wirfs or Becton, who is 6-foot-7 and 365 pounds and ran the 40-yard dash in 5.11 seconds -- about a half-second faster than my colleague Ben Fawkes can run it, and Fawkes weighs around 165 [Editor's note: Take the under on that one].
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